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Presenting Nipples posted:I’m shocked that the dude who likes Pinochet is concern trolling about donating to charity. Most people (ie not idiots) would take “Maduro is worse than Pinochet” to be an indictment of Maduro’s capacity as a leader So you will continue to take it as praise for Pinochet
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Feb 2, 2019 21:14
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Not looking good for guaido or the coup plotters: Yeah, that picture (and the way the camera conspicuously avoids panning further to the right) is actually pretty encouraging, sorry. Of course, Venezuelan TV will only show carefully edited, low-angle shots of the pro-government rally. https://twitter.com/philgunson/status/1091747724167385089
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Feb 2, 2019 21:18
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If you speak Spanish, this interview will be worth checking out. It's supposed to air tomorrow evening Spain time. Here's a teaser: https://twitter.com/jordievole/status/1091704491165081600 The interviewer asks Maduro about the arrest of three EFE journalists who were covering events in the country on Wednesday. Maduro starts by denying out-of-hand that any journalists have been arrested in Venezuela, and starts to spin the story about the "permanent campaign" against the country that "they" are running, but the interviewer won't have any of it. Quick translation: quote:Interviewer: Thank you, President Maduro, for receiving us. I feel privileged, more than some of my colleagues who were detained or deported from your country in recent days. 11 journalists were arrested on January 29/30 alone. EDIT: And here's the obligatory video from someone who lives along the Bolivar Avenue showing what the crowd looks like from a point of view other than what the cameras from state television capture: https://twitter.com/jsantosjr/status/1091791375228694529 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 21:19
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What a loving clown
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Feb 2, 2019 21:21
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No journalists, only CIA western agitators.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:23
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God, just that initial shot displaying their respective sizes After a transition away from Maduro occurs, what sort of structural government reforms would help stabilize the country's leadership? It seems like the military is a core issue, in that it's a concentrated power base. Would shifting leadership of military forces through the legislature help? How do countries that don't have these issues inculcate appropriate values in their military officers?
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Feb 2, 2019 21:24
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Chuck Boone posted:If you speak Spanish, this interview will be worth checking out. It's supposed to air tomorrow evening Spain time. Here's a teaser: This reminds me: I was informed recently that they censured Cesar Miguel Rondon’s show in the mornings. Furia fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 21:24
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Chuck Boone posted:If you speak Spanish, this interview will be worth checking out. It's supposed to air tomorrow evening Spain time. Here's a teaser: Maduro isn't used to be called on his bullshit and it shows.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:25
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All is well with press freedom in Venezuela. There are regular press conferences!beer_war posted:Yeah, that picture (and the way the camera conspicuously avoids panning further to the right) is actually pretty encouraging, sorry. Trump's inauguration was the biggest ever style. Of course that was pretty quickly shown up since the press is the US is generally freer than Venezuela's. Note though to take any crowd shots or turnout claims from anyone with a heavy pinch of salt. High angle and thorough pan is the gold standard though.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:26
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Discendo Vox posted:God, just that initial shot displaying their respective sizes The military is always a core issue and I haven't got a good example of it being dealt with well. Turkey had repeated military coups when people they didn't like get voted in followed by a general purge of all dissent everywhere followed their last failed one. Thailand's military also ultimately deposed the people they didn't like. Burma/Myanmar is what it is... I could go on. How did Chile deal with it? I mean they ran into other issues but they avoided heavy interference by the military into politics after the fall of Pinochet as far as I am aware.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:30
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Discendo Vox posted:God, just that initial shot displaying their respective sizes We have to, at some point, take away all political power from the Venezuelan military, as was the case in the past. Considering how ostensibly militarized the country is now, we would have to begin by cutting dozens of positions created by the Maduro government just to add bureaucracy over bureaucracy. There's currently 33 ministries, 16 of which were created by Maduro. We would have to see how many of them are actually doing anything (I'm assuming poo poo like the 'Ministry for Urban Agriculture' we can cut). 9 ministries are currently ran by military men, if that tells you something. It's not just the executive, though. Many of the expropriated companies were handed down to military men or family of those in power, who also ran them to the ground. Things like Lacteos Los Andes, Cafe Fama de America could be made to produce again if we at the very least appoint someone actually capable to run them. fnox fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Feb 2, 2019 |
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Feb 2, 2019 21:32
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Presenting Nipples posted:I’m interested to see the US and Guaido’s next move since Maduro called elections forward. My hunch is military invasion. Considering the US and Guaido no longer recognize Maduro's authority to call elections, and that Maduro is only calling for early parliamentary elections (when the opposition already controls the assembly) rather than presidential elections, my hunch is that they'll view it as an attempt to split the moderates from the radicals in the opposition. I'd be surprised if anything comes of it.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:34
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fnox posted:We have to, at some point, take away all political power from the Venezuelan military, as was the case in the past. Considering how ostensibly militarized the country is now, we would have to begin by cutting dozens of positions created by the Maduro government just to add bureaucracy over bureaucracy. There's currently 33 ministries, 16 of which were created by Maduro. We would have to see how many of them are actually doing anything (I'm assuming poo poo like the 'Ministry for Urban Agriculture' we can cut). 9 ministries are currently ran by military men, if that tells you something. i thought we were supposed to be talking about stuff YOU can do. why haven't you cut those ministeries btw??
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Feb 2, 2019 21:36
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Kurnugia posted:i thought we were supposed to be talking about stuff YOU can do. why haven't you cut those ministeries btw?? You are being a tremendous dick to a person who had to actively flee their country due to political instability and scarcity, I hope you realize.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:43
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Kurnugia posted:i thought we were supposed to be talking about stuff YOU can do. why haven't you cut those ministeries btw?? Well, Maduro isn't out yet, that's coming. I think you ultimately didn't understand what I was saying. What I am saying is that you don't have any actual stake in the matter. You don't advance the topic, you ultimately have nothing to offer Venezuelans, other than constant complaints about what the majority of them are doing to get rid of Maduro. You don't give us an alternative option.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:45
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fnox posted:Well, Maduro isn't out yet, that's coming.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:47
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Alright. Why don't you want Maduro removed? Do you believe that he's a good leader?
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Feb 2, 2019 21:50
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fnox posted:Alright. Why don't you want Maduro removed? Do you believe that he's a good leader? because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. frankly, I don't give a gently caress about maduro, the PSUV can vote him out if they so please, but US coups do not suddenly become good and democratic just because there's an incompetent in office
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Feb 2, 2019 21:52
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Munin posted:The military is always a core issue and I haven't got a good example of it being dealt with well. Turkey had repeated military coups when people they didn't like get voted in followed by a general purge of all dissent everywhere followed their last failed one. Thailand's military also ultimately deposed the people they didn't like. Burma/Myanmar is what it is... Theorycrafting ahead, warning: Truth and Reconciliation proceedings, a focused multi-decade long legal process, accompanied by integration (or rather, re-integration) of soldiers into public life/civil society? I don't see a post-Maduro military retaining all of the men/women and expensive equipment built up during the Chavez years. That could have a huge effect on stability. Then there is military infrastructure whose use would need to be examined. What good is the Kalashnikov factory when even the Russians can't sell an AK to save their lives, for example? Trade the Sukhois to India for something a bit more useful? If there are any previous examples I would point to, it would be German reunification, RSA immediately post-Apartheid, and the Balkan countries after the Yugoslav wars. Each of these efforts provide an example of opportunities and pitfalls of the political solutions available.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:57
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Kurnugia posted:because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. frankly, I don't give a gently caress about maduro, the PSUV can vote him out if they so please, but US coups do not suddenly become good and democratic just because there's an incompetent in office Ok. I give a gently caress about Maduro, he took me out of my country, he forced my family out of my country, he put friends of mine in jail, and he forced me to live in fear. The PSUV can't vote him out because he runs the PSUV, he's their leader. If he's not removed, this year, then Venezuela is bound to experience it's 7th year in a row in freefall. If you do the math, you realise that the crisis has been occurring long, long before any US action was taken.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:58
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Kurnugia posted:because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. frankly, I don't give a gently caress about maduro, the PSUV can vote him out if they so please, but US coups do not suddenly become good and democratic just because there's an incompetent in office Why are you even here? What are you getting out of this conversation? I get that you are probably just some lonely troll looking for reactions from people and so I'd encourage you to find something else to do with your time. This isn't some game for a number of the people who post in this thread. This isn't some game for the millions of people starving and marching in the streets of Venezuela today. This poo poo is life or death.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:59
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Kurnugia posted:because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. Pinochet was in the military... the same military propping Maduro.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:00
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the chilean military
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Feb 2, 2019 22:06
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Pinochet was in the military... the same military propping Maduro. drat, you've freaking owned him
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Feb 2, 2019 22:07
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fnox posted:Ok. I give a gently caress about Maduro, he took me out of my country, he forced my family out of my country, he put friends of mine in jail, and he forced me to live in fear. The PSUV can't vote him out because he runs the PSUV, he's their leader. If he's not removed, this year, then Venezuela is bound to experience it's 7th year in a row in freefall. If you do the math, you realise that the crisis has been occurring long, long before any US action was taken. none of which changes the fact that US backed coups always result in an oligarch dictatorship. I've never denied that maduro is a moron, in fact i'm p sure i said that he is a moron, but none of that makes a US backed coup a good thing tm and yeah, the PSUV can't vote him out cuz he's the party leader and they are under the threat of imminent foreign invasion. which maduro no doubt has used in his favour, for a good reason. because pinochet is in fact not an improvement over his incompetent rear end. the only difference for you is that your family gets to return to venezuela, and your friends in jail will be replaced by PSUV members. what you're going to get if Guaido succeeds in his coup is a civil war, that will be brutally suppressed by the US military so good luck and and hope your friends are ok, but replacing maduro with a US backed dictatorship is just going to change who gets to suffer
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Feb 2, 2019 22:07
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One of the key pro-Maduro (or anti-anything-except-internal-PSUV-reform, I guess) talking points is that the opposition's proposal is a 'coup'. I still reject that framing, or at least reject the idea that it's any less constitutional and democratic than Maduro's (second term of) presidency in the first place. It's not a coup, it's a constitutional crisis. There are zero remedies that do not involve either the PSUV suddenly deciding to act in good faith, new elections under the control of not-the-PSUV, or (ideally) both, or (less ideally) much much worse things. For some reason nobody seems seriously interested in suggesting that the PSUV will get its poo poo in order and/or hold fair elections. This is particularly weird, between today's announcement that Maduro will hold another parliamentary election although i can't quite tell whether it's for his bullshit fake legislature or the actual National Assembly and another Maduro development of several days ago: https://www.apnews.com/713250e9eb4f4e59b8b71e354689972c quote:Maduro had rejected negotiations, but said in an interview with Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news agency that he was open to talks with the opposition. If he's serious about any of this (lol), it might be a good sign for the Mexico Et Al negotiations that non-assholes in the US have been backing as an alternative. You know, over either further imperialist cudgeling, or kicking back and letting Maduro do whatever the hell he wants.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:10
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Kurnugia posted:because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. frankly, I don't give a gently caress about maduro, the PSUV can vote him out if they so please, but US coups do not suddenly become good and democratic just because there's an incompetent in office The PSUV will not vote him out. Every bit of deception, embezzlement, out-right theft, torture, unlawful detention, death by starvation, and murder by that party is tacitly approved and given legitimacy by Maduro. That is how they get away with it. Get this: there is no US coup. What you are referencing as such is the culmination of a years-long struggle by Venezuelans inside Venezuela and within the Venezuelan diaspora against the mis-management of their country. This cannot be a purely internal effort, the Maduro regime has violently suppressed any such attempt at reform from within. Reminder that the man himself has been voted out, but he staged a coup to retain power.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:12
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Kurnugia posted:none of which changes the fact that US backed coups always result in an oligarch dictatorship. I've never denied that maduro is a moron, in fact i'm p sure i said that he is a moron, but none of that makes a US backed coup a good thing tm Why didn't they remove him in 2017? Or 2016? Why did he block the recall referendum? Why did he ban opposition parties? Why did he flat out make up votes in the Constituent Assembly election? I have never supported Pinochet. I have never asked anywhere, for a military dictatorship, of any sort. Me saying, "Maduro is worse than Pinochet", means, Pinochet was an awful genocidal criminal elitist, Maduro is like him, just worse. The awful military dictatorship is currently here right now, ruling Venezuela. We want to get rid of it, much like how Chile got rid of Pinochet, we want a transition to democracy, like Chile did. Again, let me stress this, because you keep repeating this like I have ever said it. I do not, want, a military dictatorship. I do not want the military running anything. If anything like that results from getting rid of Maduro, then I'll be fighting to get rid of it just the same, but there is nothing to loving gain by sitting still. Venezuelans everywhere, they'd rather take a chance than keep poo poo like it is.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:14
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GreyjoyBastard posted:This is particularly weird, between today's announcement that Maduro will hold another parliamentary election although i can't quite tell whether it's for his bullshit fake legislature or the actual National Assembly It's for the one he doesn't like.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:18
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Also, Kurnugia, because you and others seem to be badly misunderstanding the root causes of the crisis, here's some info. Hugo Chavez, when elected President of Venezuela in 1998, was a proponent for direct government intervention in the economy to provide for the poor, primarily through the use of oil revenues. And while that was a great policy on paper, the execution was significantly flawed. While programs designed to help the poor were instituted (propelling Chavez to ludicrous levels of popularity), the methods that he used prioritized short term solutions over long term stability. For instance, oil revenue from the state oil company, PDVSA, was routed into government funds instead of being reinvested into the company to fund infrastructure and new drilling. This had the effect of causing oil production to actually drop over Chavez's tenure in spite of all-time high oil prices, and had the end result of the company being unable to sustain itself after downturns in oil prices. Another favored tactic of Chavez was price controls and expropriation. To ensure that basic goods would remain affordable, it was made illegal to sell goods at a rate higher than the government set. The government also increasingly got into the habit of taking over businesses (Without compensation IIRC) and turning them over to government officials to run. Ostensibly, this would prevent excessive profiteering on the part of business owners, and ensure that goods would only be produced at cost and provided to whoever needed it. However, the system quickly turned into an organ for massive corruption, especially under Maduro. The government under the PSUV became akin to a vulture capital firm—it would see a successful businesses, expropriate it, and then turn it over to a party or military official who would effectively loot everything that wasn't nailed down, lining the pockets of party officials while the business ceased to actively contribute to the economy. In addition, as inflation steadily began to rise, the price controls were a major factor in the spiral of scarcity. Businesses who could previously make a profit selling, say, milk or corn flour could no longer do so, and products that required imports to produce would have to be sold at a loss. With inflation rising, creating these products would result in greater and greater losses, meaning that the few companies that weren't being taken over by the PSUV would end up going out of business anyway. And for the companies operated by party officials, much of their production would be siphoned off to be sold on the black market rather than store shelves. The problems became all-encompassing. Obtaining foreign currency for imports became a problem, as more and more money was siphoned from oil revenues into private pockets, and fewer businesses were willing to do business in the country for fear of having their factories or distribution centers stolen out from under them. Basic goods became scarce, as well as medicine. As private businesses collapsed, the country became more dependent on oil revenues that were also falling. The PSUV under Chavez remained popular even as the wheels began coming off due to lingering support for his social programs, but since the 2015 parlimentary elections the PSUV has refused to relinquish the power necessary to begin addressing the crisis. And let us be clear: The crisis can be addressed. Price controls could be abolished to allow markets for food to return to normal. Oil fields could be leased or operated jointly with foreign companies to help put money back into rebuilding the shattered husk of the PDVSA's infrastructure. Food and medical aid could be allowed back into the country en masse, and the expropriation policies could be halted and reversed to help restore the private economy. But the PSUV has refused to do that, because they are personally profiting from the misery of the Venezuelan people. Billions of dollars—billions! have been stolen from oil revenues, and businesses that provided food and jobs have been run directly into the ground. The PSUV and military elite live like kings while the rest of the country falls apart around them, and that's why they have done practically nothing to turn around and address the crisis before them—or to even allow others to try and solve it by relinquishing political power. As long as the PSUV and Maduro remain in power, Venezuela will suffer. It's that simple.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:18
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fnox posted:I do not, want, a military dictatorship. I do not want the military running anything. If anything like that results from getting rid of Maduro, then I'll be fighting to get rid of it just the same, but there is nothing to loving gain by sitting still. Venezuelans everywhere, they'd rather take a chance than keep poo poo like it is. that is what you will get as a result of a US backed coup, which is why i keep telling you that if you really do care about venezuela, you will not be helping to rid of anything except US sanctions by backing Guaido as an interim president
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Feb 2, 2019 22:20
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Chuck Boone thank you for that round up above by the way
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Feb 2, 2019 22:21
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Kurnugia posted:that is what you will get as a result of a US backed coup, which is why i keep telling you that if you really do care about venezuela, you will not be helping to rid of anything except US sanctions by backing Guaido as an interim president You don't actually know this. This is just conjecture, based on a loose interpretation of what's happening in Venezuela. You don't know what's going to actually happen. I don't either, but I'll take my chances. I'd rather try anything, than let Maduro rule.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:22
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Kurnugia posted:that is what you will get as a result of a US backed coup, which is why i keep telling you that if you really do care about venezuela, you will not be helping to rid of anything except US sanctions by backing Guaido as an interim president If Guaidó removed the price controls and then immedietely resigned he'd have done more for Venezuela in one order than Maduro has done in six years. You simply don't seem to get just how damaging the rule of Maduro and the PSUV have been. Just read this wikipedia article! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela
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Feb 2, 2019 22:23
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fnox posted:but I'll take my chances. I'd rather try anything, than let Maduro rule. hmm
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Feb 2, 2019 22:31
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Kurnugia posted:that is what you will get as a result of a US backed coup, which is why i keep telling you that if you really do care about venezuela, you will not be helping to rid of anything except US sanctions by backing Guaido as an interim president Would your position change if Guaido, as interim president, held the presidential election he is required to, and a non-PSUV candidate won? Because that's what he's pushing for. If elections (under Guaido and/or with a trillion international monitors crawling up everyone's rear end) aren't a viable remedy, and the PSUV isn't going to suddenly grow a collective heart and fix their last 10-20 years of fuckups and oust basically their entire leadership, there are zero even remotely palatable paths forward for Venezuela. None. Zip.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:33
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Acebuckeye13 posted:And let us be clear: The crisis can be addressed. Price controls could be abolished to allow markets for food to return to normal. Oil fields could be leased or operated jointly with foreign companies to help put money back into rebuilding the shattered husk of the PDVSA's infrastructure. Food and medical aid could be allowed back into the country en masse, and the expropriation policies could be halted and reversed to help restore the private economy. I would just like to call out that there is in fact not much left to sell as basically all of Venezuela's oil assets have been sold off, leased, or are security for debts owed by the government to China and Russia. Any resolution of the crisis would most likely involve a sovereign debt default. Since the China and Russia would be the people shafted by this it would most likely involved a realignment towards the US. This will have its own unpalatable costs, likely worse if Trump is in power but the Democrats are also corporatist free marketers at their core. The US will not give Venezuela a better deal than they have failed to give Puerto Rico. The upshot of it is that Venezuela is not looking at moving into sunlit highlands after Maduro is toppled but will at least have the chance to stop further decline and looting. On the (very slightly) more positive side, even Zimbabwe has managed to more or less stabilize after it's free-fall and that was even with the plutocrats and successors staying in power. The simple recognition that nothing more could be had and that to get anything more they'd have to change course made them take action. They managed to stabilize things slightly, get resource extraction going again after recapitalizing the state mining companies and giving their equipment an overhaul and now the new regime should be able to keep trucking for another decade (of looting the country). Venezuela should be able to do better than that if they can get the kleptocrats out.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:39
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Discendo Vox posted:God, just that initial shot displaying their respective sizes I'm by no means an expert, but I think the recent trend towards militarizing the political leadership is not the fundamental problem. Here's a quote about the Venezuelan government I read recently that I thought explained a lot: http://www.offnews.info/downloads/CorralesPenfoldJODApril%202007pp%2099-113.pdf quote:By dramatically raising both the advantages of holding office and the costs of being in opposition, [Chavez's] constitution produced what scholars call a “high-stake power” political system.5 In such a case, incumbents’ incentives to share power shrink, as does the opposition’s room to accept the status quo. The opposition, feeling shut out and stripped of other means to affect policy, soon begins staging street protests in hopes of guarding what few bastions it still holds The negative effects of "high-stake" politics seem obvious. When Chavez started winning he won big, and had a free hand to start reshaping the state while the opposition had little legal recourse. Once the PSUV started losing in 2015 however the situation reversed. Maduro was facing a recall at the hands of the National Assembly and even the threat of prosecution for corruption. Instead of just accepting defeat, the PSUV responded by playing constitutional hardball, undermining the democratic foundations of the government. Creating a system that stabilizes the government means lowering the stakes. That would probably involve reducing the powers of the executive, increasing the independence state industry and government employees so they are less subject to intimidation, and giving opposition parties options to pursue their interests other than by taking to the streets.
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Feb 2, 2019 22:41
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Munin posted:I would just like to call out that there is in fact not much left to sell as basically all of Venezuela's oil assets have been sold off, leased, or are security for debts owed by the government to China and Russia. i should probably read up on zimbabwe then
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Feb 2, 2019 22:41
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Kurnugia posted:because I do not want to see US putting another pinochet in power on their back yard is why. What does this post have to do with Venezuela?
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Feb 2, 2019 22:49
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