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Federal government will not focus in bringing druglords to justice now. The war is over, and we all lost.
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Jan 31, 2019 22:31
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So, if he's not fighting cartels, why he wants the army and the national guard?
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Jan 31, 2019 23:33
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This needs more explanation.
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Feb 1, 2019 06:13
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https://twitter.com/themiamivoice/status/1091701428777902080
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Feb 2, 2019 20:10
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Take a closer look at that account’s history and website.
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Feb 2, 2019 20:41
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Discendo Vox posted:Take a closer look at that account’s history and website. Too fuckin' real, huh? Someone running a literal fake news twitter account (supposedly from a cafe in Miami) getting te-tweeted by a dictator hundreds of miles away. Isn't it supposed to work the other way around?
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Feb 2, 2019 20:50
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I tried looking for other sources and couldn't find anything. I guess someone can benefit from spreading rumors about escalation
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Feb 2, 2019 21:39
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nerdz posted:I tried looking for other sources and couldn't find anything. I guess someone can benefit from spreading rumors about escalation It's Maduro.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:43
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It's possible the vid's real, I have no real knowledge about that. But the source is...well. Not great. Question from the Venezuelan hellthread: How did Chile reduce the role, influence and power of its military after Pinochet? I'm realizing that's a key function of getting to a remotely functional, stable democratic state.
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Feb 2, 2019 21:53
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Discendo Vox posted:It's possible the vid's real, I have no real knowledge about that. But the source is...well. Not great. Short answer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fB9DbxrjBaI Long answer: The chilean transition to democracy had... a lot of ups and downs, even though it might appear that post-dictatorship Chile was a lot more stable than other Latin American nations during the same period. Pinochet was voted out in a 1988 referendum, but during the negotiations that followed this, and that eventually led to an elected civilian government taking over, the military, and Pinochet in particular, still held a lot of leverage, and the resulting system reflected that. Some concessions were granted to the military in order to ensue a smooth transfer of power. Some of these concessions were informal, and others were coded into the constitution - these would later be termed as the "authoritarian enclaves". - The terms of the transition to democracy established that Pinochet would remain in command of the Armed Forces until his retirement, at which point he'd become a Senator-for-life, and a number of seats in the Senate were reserved for retired commanders of the armed forces (who, it could be expected, would all be hardline Pinochetists for the foreseeable future). - Pinochet used his position as Commander in Chief in two separate occasions to very overtly and publicly intimidate the civilian authorities into looking the other way regarding a multi-million-dollar corruption case involving Pinochet's son. (link in spanish) - The center-left coalition that defeated Pinochet in the 1988 referendum did not have too much trouble winning presidential elections in the 90s, but the electoral system concocted under transitional negotiations ensured that legislative elections would always hand out seats more evenly, which in the 90s came to the great benefit of the right-wing coalition that sought to preserve the legacy (either political, economic or cultural) of the dictatorship. As such, it was all but guaranteed that changes to the constitution that sought to amend the "authoritarian enclaves" would have to be negotiated with the right. - While the dictatorship did not intervene the judiciary system as thoroughly as it did other institutions, during most of the 90s the Chilean high courts were still packed with judges who had been appointed by Pinochet decades ago, and thus ensured that no meaningful prosecution would be given to most cases of human rights abuses under Pinochet. Civilian authorities in the 90s pursued the policy of "justice according to what's possible" regarding the cases of torture and disappearances, where they'd order an investigation in order to establish the facts, but would not follow said investigation with criminal charges, or would immediately apply the Amnesty Law passed by Pinochet. Even this lukewarm approach was met with severe push-back by Chilean courts and pro-military sectors. So, for the first five to ten years or so, the answer to "how did Chile reduce the power of the military?" was "it didn't". The military, and Pinochet, still held a lot of power, but since their privileges did not come under direct threat, they did not see the need to exert that power, save for the aforementioned instances regarding the investigation against Pinochet's son. Eventually, it might have come down to playing the long game - by the time Pinochet was detained in London, which came as an extreme embarrassment to all sectors in post-transition Chile, the years had allowed for naked pinochetism to be swept under the rug, at least in public discourse, and as such it was less politically expedient, even among the right, to defend some of the key "authoritarian enclaves". So, slowly, civilian authority over the armed forces was consolidated, courts became more receptive towards human rights cases (not just investigating but also prosecuting), the figures of designated and for-life senators were abolished, Pinochet himself was eventually investigated and charged (though never convicted), etc. It's possible to see it in a cynical way - the military's vast material benefits were never under direct threat, the dictatorship's economic framework for Chile was never dismantled, and therefore the armed forces were content to leave the actual politicking to right-wing politicians. You can also see it in a more favorable light towards the civilian authorities of the earlier transition - they navigated the confusing and oftentimes humiliating framework that the dictatorship imposed, and still managed to slowly but surely bring the military under civilian authority, prosecute and imprison many of the dictatorship's major human rights abusers (though not Pinochet himself), phase out Pinochetist elements in the judiciary, eliminate the authoritarian enclaves, etc. You can also see it in a broader historical context - while Pinochet ruled for 17 years, and Chile had been no stranger to dictatorships before that, overall the chilean armed forces had at the very least projected a tradition of non-interference in political affairs for the larger part of its history, and to go openly against it was bad optics - even Pinochet sought to dress his dictatorship under the veneer of a legitimate constitutional presidency. As such, the military stepping away from any position of political influence was just a return to the natural state of affairs in chilean politics. It's probably a bit of everything - under the forced 'stability' of the earlier transition, there was really no reason for the military to act up, as its interests were well protected. Whatever potential influence the military could have kept began to slowly dissipate as democratic institutions consolidated and Pinochetism's star began to wane, and the generational shift locked it all in before anything major could interrupt the excruciatingly slow process of the military shifting away from Pinochet's shadow. Eventually, if the army pretends to be subordinated to civilian authority for long enough with no major hitch, it becomes indistinguishable from actually being subordinated to civilian authority, since past a certain point you'll phase out most officers and generals who ever knew a different state of affairs.
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Feb 4, 2019 07:56
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The tl;dr is that it happened because the dictatorship itself opened a path for democratization, in which its power and authority would remain secure for the foreseeable future, to avoid dealing with the unrest of more openly heavy-handed governance.
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Feb 4, 2019 08:53
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Thank you so much, that’s really helpful!
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Feb 4, 2019 09:13
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Thanks for the very enlightening post on the post Pinochet transition. A friend was asking me about it some time ago and I was drawing blanks. Wasn't there also an economy crash engineered (at least partially) by the junta's wacky free market shenanigans?
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Feb 5, 2019 00:48
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Are you referring to this? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_1982
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Feb 5, 2019 01:34
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Redczar posted:Are you referring to this? I was under the impression that the crisis was caused due to Chile leaving the US dollar.
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Feb 5, 2019 05:44
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punk rebel ecks posted:I was under the impression that the crisis was caused due to Chile leaving the US dollar. I was curious, because I knew the 1973 coup happened after a very strong El Nino year, so I looked it up and:   A lot of Chile's economic problems are linked to the worldwide commodity market, and the dependence of the agricultural sector on climactic conditions.
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Feb 5, 2019 18:54
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Feels odd to post here, given the universal despondency over SA matters lately. But all the same, this bears mention: Bolsonaro's government has been rocked by tons of charges of petty corruption, and has ejected several members already (usually replacing them with military people, always a terrible sign). Last week, a row emerged as Bolsonaro's son, one of the wannabe-Machiavelli's of the regime, took the chance to pounce of their party leader (and one of the main ministers/secretaries), who is also being investigated for campaign finance violation. Bolso was in the hospital, and when this guy Bebbiano claimed to have talked to the president about some issues, Bolso's son claimed that he had spent the whole day with his father and seen no talks, that Bebbiano was a traitor and a lefty media spy, the works. The row evolved over the weekend, with Bebbianos situation growing more and more fragile, then oddly stronger as other politicians who were fed up with the president's son calling the shots taking stabs. Yesterday, Bebbiano was ejected from the government, and the president made some lukewarm declarations of praise, tryig to defuse the situation. No one knows what kind of deal went off behind the scenes. And it may not matter since 'someone' leaked a series of audios of contacts between the minister and the president, about the subjects in question and in the right time frame and context, proving that both the pres and his son are lying, weasely morons. Not just that, but several other matters become clear in the audios: 1- How you pretty much have to be cleared by a panel of generals to be anyone in the current regime 2- How they are very zealous of cultivating the evangelical media (which includes beating on different-brand-of-evil hegemon Globo network). 3- How the president's sons guard access to him like rabid dogs and resent anyone who can get close or influence him in any way. https://veja.abril.com.br/politica/audios-bolsonaro-bebianno-whatsapp/?utm_source=vejaredes&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=urgente
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Feb 19, 2019 18:35
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Lmao those messages completely reek of "I'm saying this with the perfect wording to leak later" dude got some lessons from Temer apparently
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Feb 19, 2019 19:38
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 gently caress you too, Veja.
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Feb 19, 2019 19:47
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Negrostrike posted:
You should check burles.co out. Just saying.
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Feb 19, 2019 19:52
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Dias posted:You should check burles.co out. Just saying. Thanks. I knew there was something like that around but just shrugged and didn't look for it.
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Feb 19, 2019 19:54
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Negrostrike posted:
"Guys, guys! This is out first real scoop in a while! Let's make sure barely anyone sees it!" ... "Why isn't old media relevant anymore? A puzzle for the ages."
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Feb 19, 2019 20:00
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I love it, though. Veja fought against the previous admin only to be branded an enemy by this one Bebiano leaked to Veja only for it to be put behind a paywall just backstabbings upon backstabbings
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Feb 19, 2019 20:35
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weird, only thing that came up was the adblock blocker which i dismissed with the tried and true method of stopping the page from loading before it pops up props to burlesco tho nerdz posted:I love it, though. reaping the insane right-wing whirlwind they drummed up for years, serves them right i was impressed by O Antagonista jumping in on this poo poo though, I guess having zero ideological coherence besides being anti-left will promote infighting between the forces that organized bolzi's campaign going forward, the usual right wing ghouls are already turning on the bolsokids fast
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Feb 19, 2019 20:47
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bagual posted:i was impressed by O Antagonista jumping in on this poo poo though, I guess having zero ideological coherence besides being anti-left will promote infighting between the forces that organized bolzi's campaign going forward, the usual right wing ghouls are already turning on the bolsokids fast Everyone wants a slice of the pie, if they don't get it then, well, now you're not their friend anymore.
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Feb 19, 2019 21:36
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bagual posted:weird, only thing that came up was the adblock blocker which i dismissed with the tried and true method of stopping the page from loading before it pops up The (shrinking) Big Media and its rogue sprouts, like Antagonista, are not really fans of the new, crazy Right. They always saw them as something useful but easy to control. "Here, just dangle something shiny and the evangelicals and red-hunters will fall in line behind whichever neoliberal dope we like best". Of course, when you make Hates the Left the only real qualification for politics, it's not going to take long until your bland accountants, who can't really call the leftists cannibal child killers with enough froth, get displaced by actual loons wjo believe it 100%. It's also a bit of a survival struggle in panic mode, too. They know that social media has really taken a poo poo in their martini this election, and they were already having a bit of self-doubt when they failed to sway the last 4 elections before that one. So they are flexing some muscle while it's still there to flex. It's way too early to be optimistic, though. Other than pardoning Lula, there is literally nothing Bolsonaro can do to alienate his real base. They openly say that it's ok if the president lies to them, because he's just so smart and it's part of his plan. Besides, the media is not doing this out of any sense of decency, as shown by their uterly shameful show over the last 4 years. Their endgame, in a very brazilian fashion, is to rock the boat until the government cries uncle, negotiate a truce with some sweet federal advertising money flowing their way, and dial things down to defend the much-vaunted "reforms". The thing is, like with Trump, the other side may be too proud/crazy to know how the game is played.
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Feb 19, 2019 22:46
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Update! Not two days after Bolsie's cabinet shat itself by having its social media petty inner fights leaked, another of their main ministers apparently dialed a reporter on his cell phone, forgot to turn it off properly, and then went into a meeting with the loving president to discuss the fallout and let him handle the payoffs needed to make the thing go away. We're reaching MyCrimes.txt level here, folks. Highlights include the president saying "If he (the recently ejected cabinet member) asks for the minimum amount, I'm so hosed, I'll have to sell properties to pay" and trying to enlist another secretary in patching up leaks. https://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/bol...paign=O%20Globo
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Feb 21, 2019 01:39
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abs6p752PW8
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Feb 21, 2019 01:42
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Sephyr posted:Update! Naked graft openly being discussed. I am sure the courts will be right on it and get him locked up pronto!
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Feb 21, 2019 02:51
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Munin posted:Naked graft openly being discussed. I am sure the courts will be right on it and get him locked up pronto! They'll get right on that! As soon as the finish purging the Supreme Court's only vaguely progressive Justice, Lewandowski, which was started today.
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Feb 21, 2019 03:41
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Sephyr posted:They'll get right on that! As soon as the finish purging the Supreme Court's only vaguely progressive Justice, Lewandowski, which was started today. Ah! Regressive conservatives showing just the respect for institutions that I expect of them. Btw, how are they doing and and has that been part of a longer process of suborning the courts in Brazil?
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Feb 21, 2019 06:57
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Munin posted:Ah! Regressive conservatives showing just the respect for institutions that I expect of them. There's the old saying "Para meus amigos tudo, para meus inimigos a lei.", or rather "Everything for my friends, the law for my enemies". This government is quickly challenging Brexit for most incompetent thing going on in 2019. ZearothK fucked around with this message at 08:43 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 08:40
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Munin posted:Ah! Regressive conservatives showing just the respect for institutions that I expect of them. Suborning the courts in Brazil isreally easy, because they come pre-suborned. The Supreme Court has always bowed and scraped to whichever authoritarian was ascendant at the time, and smaller courts are a collection of little tinpot despots that will dish out outrageously unfair/unconstitutional rulings. That's not to say that the current gang is sitting on its laurels. As I mentioned, they are working hard to unseat the lone progresive at the top court, and have a project to force-retire 3 of the older justices so they can get 3 nominations in one fell swoop. Government members have openly said that they just need a corporal and a soldier to drive over close it down for good, which has thebalready-cowardly crop of verbose dopes reaching new lows of cravenness. The Public ministry officer, a holdover from the transition government, is Raquel Dodge, who works hard to make sure that all cases dealing with government allies or members get shelved and die a lonely death. And lower-court judges are literally wiritng out in their decisions that "I'm being an rear end in a top hat here because it's a New Era now and that means I can!" So fun times all around. P.S- In tangetially related matters, the country's official diplomat school has closed down its 'latin america' course, because really, why would Brazil need it?
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Feb 21, 2019 16:18
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Some people say that the endgame of this poo poo is to staff the whole government with military and then get Bolsonaro to resign and get Mourão which would be the most blatant not-military coup ever
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Feb 21, 2019 17:56
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Sephyr posted:Update! So how many Brazilian politicians have recorded themselves admitting to crimes? Because it seems like a surprisingly large number.
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Feb 21, 2019 18:02
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Plutonis posted:Some people say that the endgame of this poo poo is to staff the whole government with military and then get Bolsonaro to resign and get Mourão which would be the most blatant not-military coup ever Given how Bolso was terrified of Mourão taking over during his post-surgery, it's certainly not his plan. Given how dumb and cowardly he is, he might just get pressured into it during the year.
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Feb 21, 2019 18:12
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Squalid posted:So how many Brazilian politicians have recorded themselves admitting to crimes? Because it seems like a surprisingly large number. Quite a few, yes. They see it as insurance when making deals with other crooks, and often things slip, or one is going down and uses the recordings to take the other down. Then again, it rarely ever sticks. We have live recording of a congressman conspiring 2016s impeachment with his pals and bragging about hoe the courts, the army and Congress will all be happy to have be able to freely stop any investigations of note once they are in charge, and no one gave a gently caress. Former neoliberal darling Aecio Neves was caught on camera taking suitaces full of cash and playfully threatening to have the bagman (his cousin) killed if he squealed, and Congress voted against stripping his immunity (so he could be charged). He's still about, just forgotten in the tide of frothing madness that made his kind obsolete. --- Back on the Law subject, and right on cue: https://www.cartacapital.com.br/diversidade/damares-alves-temos-que-combater-o-ativismo-no-judiciario/ Bolso's gleefully insane religious zealot and Human affairs minister (of course) starts banging the drum about 'judicial activism'. The timing is not accidental, as the Supreme Court is currently voting on interpreting homophobia as a crime on the level of racism, and the new chud continuum is about 30% fueled by "gay dictatorship" paranoia.
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Feb 21, 2019 18:34
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ok, so after reading a snippet saying bebianno was a jiu-jitsu instructor in Miami set off alarms on my head. I tried looking further into him and after dozens of "who is Gustavo bebianno" articles I still had no idea of who he was. Knowing that he was Bolsonaro's lawyer I decided to look into his law history, which is pretty much an open book due to open case records in Brazil. I used to work in law software and developed a system to scrape all cases for lawyers Nationwide. There's loving nothing before 2014 even though his OAB registry is sorta old. He probably got it when it was pretty much guaranteed to get after getting a degree, 30 years ago. So this dude was living in Miami, asked to work pro Bono for Bolsonaro, bolso accepted a free inexperienced lawyer for no reason out of nowhere to handle extremely delicate cases, and in 2 years this nobody climbs to the presidency of the fastest growing party and then the highest levels of government. Who the gently caress is this guy? he's sounding like a fixer a la Michael Cohen to me, with a similar fate. he's going through the loyalty after being hosed over with lots of leaks. is the flip coming? edit: tuned the search a bit here after noticing his OAB registry number is indexed wrong in the Rio de Janeiro court website (these concursados are super incompetent, no foul play here). Now I'm getting a decent amount of cases dating back to 92, still pretty drat regular cases. He definitely didn't make big money (or maybe even decent money) as a lawyer or had any high profile cases at all. There's a big chunk of years missing there that might be the jiu-jitsu years and that's it. Not any less suspicious, but at least makes sense. I'm looking at the cases involving bolsonaro here and it's kinda hilarious how thin skinned he is: he has a defamation case against this guy "Marco Antônio Villa", looked into it and the dude made critical comments about him nerdz fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Feb 22, 2019 |
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Feb 22, 2019 01:20
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I don't think he reaches even Michael Cohen level. There's a lot of shiftless middle-class failsons hitching a ride on the current neofascist craze, and some of them are just lucky to be at the right place, at the right time. PSL didn't grow because of any of his effort; anu party Bolsonaro picked would have rocketed skyward in the new wave. To me, it just seems like they met via the chud network, he offered his services because hey, always pays to have ties with politicians (and it's not like a poltroon like the president could even tell a good lawyer from a bad one anyway), and boosted each other when the country collectively lost its poo poo. He will also very much not flip. He doesn't have to. In the Us the Law at least has some actual teeth. Here he can just skate , wait for his pals to delay any investigation or case against him infinitely, so he doesn't need to admit to anything. He leaked some stuff out of petty pride but already sworn loyalty to the president again and will be paid off quietly.
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Feb 22, 2019 03:34
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Yeah I agree that he might have been just lucky enough to rise that fast, especially in a party that's literally 100% opportunists. Occam's razor here says that it was just dumb people. Which probably made Carlos Bolsonaro mad about such an exemplary case of meritocracy. He's leaking to preserve his status and maybe even keep a degree of safety. Maybe he just goes back to miami after this? For me the biggest irony is that the only use they had for female candidates were using the obligatory female quotas for fake campaigns for embezzlement. That's how women are treated another funny detail is that he lost every single case that I was able to find related to bolsonaro
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Feb 22, 2019 03:46
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