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Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

I'm mean, just because they're setting up the narrative for an intervention doesn't necessarily mean they will go ahead with it.

Everything will be fine.

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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Conspiratiorist posted:

I'm mean, just because they're setting up the narrative for an intervention doesn't necessarily mean they will go ahead with it.

Everything will be fine.

US ground forces will be in Lebanon any day now, book it. They've been setting the stage for it.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Freezer posted:

There's not going to be an overt military adventure of the US in Venezuela, even a moron like Trump knows better than to stick his dick in that beehive.

That being said, this attitude of "you guys better do what we want or very bad things could happen to you" is arrogant as gently caress.

i regret to inform you that trump is in fact erect at the idea of loving a beehive.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

A big flaming stink posted:

i regret to inform you that trump is in fact erect at the idea of loving a beehive.

While I generally agree, I think Trump is also a coward at heart who loves to talk a big game but is too chickenshit to commit—much like how he made so much bluster about striking Syria, only to blow up some empty airfields and call it a day.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes


Project cassandra confirmed all this in 2008. 11 years ago.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Why couldn't Maduro have just been like Mobutu?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Nonsense posted:

Why couldn't Maduro have just been like Mobutu?
Maduro is like ubuntu a lot of people hate it but its solely because they dont know it well enough

Right comrades?

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Project cassandra confirmed all this in 2008. 11 years ago.

and Iraq had weapons of mass distraction and was behind 9/11

AFancyQuestionMark
Feb 19, 2017

Long time no see.

A Typical Goon posted:

and Iraq had weapons of mass distraction

It sure appears that way.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Freezer posted:

There's not going to be an overt military adventure of the US in Venezuela, even a moron like Trump knows better than to stick his dick in that beehive.

That being said, this attitude of "you guys better do what we want or very bad things could happen to you" is arrogant as gently caress.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1015016755465478147?s=19

https://twitter.com/JamesKosur/status/1014569418783768577?s=19

Got some bad news about how dumb Trump is.

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe
Yeah, Trump is a delusional moron, and he's surrounded by people who are even dumber or more evil than he is.

However, Guaidó calling up a bunch of foreign leaders and going "We're gonna try this, do we have you guys in our corner?" just seems like a common sense thing to do, even if one of those leaders happen to be the Cheeto-in-Chief.

Or I guess it's possible Guaidó called up his CIA handlers and asked "What are your orders, my reptilian overlords?".

Sing Along
Feb 28, 2017

by Athanatos
Hezbollah? In your hemisphere?! It's more likely than you think.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:


man, look at number six, there. sure is a good thing there's no racial or class distinctions in Venezuela, per our friends in this thread.

Like I said, confronting people's actual positions must be entirely too much of a matter of discomfort for you.

Pedro De Heredia
May 30, 2006
Some of the backing the opposition has (especially the U.S.) is pretty bad.

But they are never going to get backing from 'good,' left-wing governments. The South and Central American left-wing governments have proven time and time again that they have no intention of doing anything meaningful against Maduro.

Blue Nation
Nov 25, 2012


https://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/08/world/venezuela-passports-investigation/index.html
Venezuela may have given passports to people with ties to terrorism

I tried to make a fancy link but failed.

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
why doesn't the US just donate their extra money to caritas

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1093464461577539584

I don't have a :cripes: big enough for this, sorry

Bob le Moche
Jul 10, 2011

I AM A HORRIBLE TANKIE MORON
WHO LONGS TO SUCK CHAVISTA COCK !

I SUGGEST YOU IGNORE ANY POSTS MADE BY THIS PERSON ABOUT VENEZUELA, POLITICS, OR ANYTHING ACTUALLY !


(This title paid for by money stolen from PDVSA)

Pedro De Heredia posted:

Some of the backing the opposition has (especially the U.S.) is pretty bad.
But they are never going to get backing from 'good,' left-wing governments.
Hmmmm what does it mean I wonder

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011


Something something unquenchable American thirst for blood.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/kgosztola/status/1091852445737803776


as recently as 2009 the US was doing dodgy poo poo with the USAID program

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/usaid-latin-americans-cuba-rebellion-hiv-workshops

Jose fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Feb 7, 2019

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Marco Rubio has a crazy ability to make Rick Scott look reasonable and good.

It's practically a super power.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Volkerball posted:

US ground forces will be in Lebanon any day now, book it. They've been setting the stage for it.

There were US ground forces in Lebanon.

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

There were US ground forces in Lebanon.

they were very democratic

Pedro De Heredia
May 30, 2006

Bob le Moche posted:

Hmmmm what does it mean I wonder

It means $$$

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Kurnugia posted:

they were very democratic

One man one truck.

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

Pedro De Heredia posted:

Some of the backing the opposition has (especially the U.S.) is pretty bad.

But they are never going to get backing from 'good,' left-wing governments. The South and Central American left-wing governments have proven time and time again that they have no intention of doing anything meaningful against Maduro.

drat, that's weird. Why do you think that is?

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

exmarx posted:

drat, that's weird. Why do you think that is?

I mean in the case of Cuba it's because Venezuela literally gives them oil, that's a gravy train no nation would turn down.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Acebuckeye13 posted:

I mean in the case of Cuba it's because Venezuela literally gives them oil, that's a gravy train no nation would turn down.

Nicaragua is the same deal and Maduro had their back while they were gunning down protestors in far larger numbers than the PSUV. I'm not sure what's up with the faithfulness of Bolivia as a political ally -- maybe just solidarity?

I'm surprised more of the tiny Caribbean states haven't come out in favor of Maduro. Or have they, but no one cares because the total population of all the independent Antilles states minus Trinidad is like... 600k people?

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Acebuckeye13 posted:

I mean in the case of Cuba it's because Venezuela literally gives them oil, that's a gravy train no nation would turn down.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/juan-guaido-will-open-up-oil-deals-to-foreign-private-companies-a8763821.html

especially the ones behind Guaido, you mean?

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe
Yeah, it's not like we've been going over why joint private/state ventures is a nobrainer wrt the Venezuelan oil industry the last 20 pages or so, no siree.

Anyway, if the us propaganda apparatus is gearing up for an intervention in Venezuela a'la Iraq or Libya, they're doing a poo poo job. Neither CNN, New York Times, Washington Post, MSNBC or even loving Fox News has a single article up on their front page about Venezuela right now.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

oh hey I actually posted about this like four pages ago

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Less than you'd think, actually!

So during the Chavez era, a rule was instituted that the PDVSA would always have a majority stake on any joint drilling ventures. The rule was symbolic more than anything else, intending to demonstrate how the oil of Venezuela belonged to Venezuelans, but it quickly started creating issues. Problem was, for a company to agree to hand off 51% of the profits, they're going to expect you to do 51% of the work - and under Chavez and Maduro, the PDVSA had entered a long period of decline, with manpower, expertise, and infrastructure all gradually breaking down over the years-and particularly after the 2002 strike in support of the coup attempt. So in effect, even though Venezuela's oil reserves are massive, the country increasingly lacks the capacity to begin drilling and profiting off the oil - and considering how much of the economy depends on oil revenues, that's a bad thing!

So really, what the opposition is proposing is honestly the right move. You scrap the rule, you get more oil pumping, more money for the state in the near term, and more foreign currency you can use to import food and to relieve shortages, as well as to rebuild the PDVSA and the oil infrastructure in general.

e: the second part is also reasonable, since it's basically saying 'hey Maduro selling out vast swaths of the country's future for pennies on the dollar was loving bullshit,' which is true

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
oh hey, so you did! that does makes it even funnier to hear you complaining maduro's backers are in it for the money and nothing else, so thanks for that. though i'll admit that the US does also want to kill socialists as a matter of course, even without a major profit incentive. so there is that

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

yeah i'm frankly surprised the deep state the saner State Department folks were able to keep things somewhere in the vein of reasonableness for so long given that trump has the diplomatic disposition of a kindergarten bully

then suddenly john bolton and mike pompeo and welp

i'm also a little surprised maduro never hit on the idea of just bribing Donald Trump; one Trump Golf Resort Caracas later and all the kleptocrats' assets are unfrozen

Mr. Sunshine
May 15, 2008

This is a scrunt that has been in space too long and become a Lunt (Long Scrunt)

Fun Shoe
I mean, I'm no goddamn libertarian or free market psychopath. I honestly believe that profits from Venezuelan oil should benefit the Venezuelan people. But in order for the money from oil to go back to the people, you need just that - profit. If the PDVSA runs at a loss, or just barely manages to break even, there's no money going back to the state. And currently, the PDVSA is in such a dire condition it will probably stop producing oil all together in a few years. To get the Venezuelan oil industry back to even a semblance of pre-maduro output, you'd need massive investment. Where's that money coming from? Is it gonna be paid by the nearly bankrupt state that can't even keep it's citizens fed? Or is it gonna come from international loans and private companies?

Honestly, if you have any better alternatives, please tell me what those are.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp

Kurnugia posted:

oh hey, so you did! that does makes it even funnier to hear you complaining maduro's backers are in it for the money and nothing else, so thanks for that. though i'll admit that the US does also want to kill socialists as a matter of course, even without a major profit incentive. so there is that

This sure is a post alright.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Acebuckeye13 posted:

This sure is a post alright.

Kind of a tankie Markov chain maybe?

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Mr. Sunshine posted:

I mean, I'm no goddamn libertarian or free market psychopath. I honestly believe that profits from Venezuelan oil should benefit the Venezuelan people. But in order for the money from oil to go back to the people, you need just that - profit. If the PDVSA runs at a loss, or just barely manages to break even, there's no money going back to the state. And currently, the PDVSA is in such a dire condition it will probably stop producing oil all together in a few years. To get the Venezuelan oil industry back to even a semblance of pre-maduro output, you'd need massive investment. Where's that money coming from? Is it gonna be paid by the nearly bankrupt state that can't even keep it's citizens fed? Or is it gonna come from international loans and private companies?

Honestly, if you have any better alternatives, please tell me what those are.

hosed if I know, but you know there are countries out there not beholden to US geopolitical interests, right? I'm sure China and Russia would be more interested in that if the imminent threat of US invasion was withdrawn, but foreign investment in general is not going to happen full stop as long as you got mr trump threatening to roll tanks over the border every other week. as for output being lower than pre-maduro... yeah no poo poo, the prices for oil are also kinda different from that time.

my point was though that it is kinda the definition of actually literal projection to insist that anyone supporting maduro is only doing it for the sweet sweet oil. you know, when you got the other guy over there promising sweet deals on venezuelan state oil company privatization?

dublish
Oct 31, 2011


Kurnugia posted:

you know, when you got the other guy over there promising sweet deals on venezuelan state oil company privatization?

I don't think privatization means what you think it means. Or are you talking about something other than allowing PDVSA to have less than a 51% stake in joint ventures?

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

dublish posted:

I don't think privatization means what you think it means. Or are you talking about something other than allowing PDVSA to have less than a 51% stake in joint ventures?

sure

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp
I mean, obviously Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia aren't just sticking with Maduro for the oil. Chavez spent a lot of time and treasure building up regional relationships, using oil to facilitate diplomatic favors and trade deals. Cuba, for instance, sent doctors and educators in return for the massive amounts of oil that Chavez sent, and Bolivia entered into an extremely favorable agreement to export soy. Since then, Cuba, Bolivia, and Venezuela have acted as a regional trading a diplomatic bloc, often supporting each other's votes in the UN and creating very favorable trade deals with each other. Even now, Venezuela continues to provide about two and a half million dollars worth of oil to Cuba per day—which is a shitton of money.

So yeah, Cuba and Bolivia definitely have something to lose if the government of Venezuela becomes less friendly—cheap oil is a big part of it, obviously, but more than that they risk losing an important trading and diplomatic partner, and risk becoming more diplomatically isolated in an unfavorable regional climate towards their countries. And because of that, for them actual legitimacy of Maduro is a fairly moot point.

e: international geopolitics is really a poor place to look for morality or objective truth

Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Feb 7, 2019

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