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Kurnugia posted:hosed if I know, but you know there are countries out there not beholden to US geopolitical interests, right? I'm sure China and Russia would be more interested in that if the imminent threat of US invasion was withdrawn, but foreign investment in general is not going to happen full stop as long as you got mr trump threatening to roll tanks over the border every other week. Also, what loving "imminent threat of US invasion"? Donald "Build my wall or I throw a hissyfit" Trump and John "I get a hard-on at the thought of nuking foreigners" Bolton saying they're "seriously considering it" means absolutely zero. Trump is parroting something he heard from fox news as usual, and Bolton et al are "seriously considering" invading Bangladesh and Suriname as well. Get back to me when there's a troop buildup and an actual propaganda push to sell an intervention. Right now there's nothing but a couple of windbags doing what they've always done - spew bullshit. Kurnugia posted:as for output being lower than pre-maduro... yeah no poo poo, the prices for oil are also kinda different from that time. Kurnugia posted:my point was though that it is kinda the definition of actually literal projection to insist that anyone supporting maduro is only doing it for the sweet sweet oil. you know, when you got the other guy over there promising sweet deals on venezuelan state oil company privatization?
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Feb 7, 2019 22:03
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The https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/venezue...-605088?foto=12 Link in spanish.
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Feb 7, 2019 22:07
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Saladman posted:Or have they, but no one cares How dare you slander fair Dominica so? E: legit always wanted to see Dominica, actually.
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Feb 7, 2019 22:13
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Mr. Sunshine posted:Also, what loving "imminent threat of US invasion"? Donald "Build my wall or I throw a hissyfit" Trump and John "I get a hard-on at the thought of nuking foreigners" Bolton saying they're "seriously considering it" means absolutely zero. Trump is parroting something he heard from fox news as usual, and Bolton et al are "seriously considering" invading Bangladesh and Suriname as well. Get back to me when there's a troop buildup and an actual propaganda push to sell an intervention. Right now there's nothing but a couple of windbags doing what they've always done - spew bullshit. is this a joke? serious question
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Feb 7, 2019 22:18
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Saladman posted:Nicaragua is the same deal and Maduro had their back while they were gunning down protestors in far larger numbers than the PSUV. I'm not sure what's up with the faithfulness of Bolivia as a political ally -- maybe just solidarity? A bunch of them did (prior to the current kerfuffle, admittedly) and my personal reaction was that I'd forgotten that some of them were even independent states. 
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Feb 7, 2019 22:20
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the bitcoin of weed posted:is this a joke? serious question I mean it's not as though there's been any actually advertised troop movements, and even if they were trying to keep it under wraps those things are hard to hide. If, say, the 1st Armored (Currently in Texas) or the 4th Infantry (Colorado) suddenly disappear, or if the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (Off the coast of South Carolina) starts steaming towards Venezuela, then, yeah, it's time to worry. Otherwise, though, it's hard to characterize any military response as 'imminent'—it took months for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to assemble, after all, and they were both blindingly obvious to anyone around for that entire time period. e: If you want to see where US carrier groups and MEUs are yourself, there's a handy map updated daily here: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-naval-update-map-feb-7-2019 double edit: frankly I'm amazed that Trump hasn't sent a carrier to Venezuela. Even if you're not planning any actual military actions, a carrier is an excellent way to say 'hey, we're keeping an eye on you.' Could indicate that Trump's advisors or foreign allies are recommending against doing anything that could even look like military provocation, or perhaps Trump is just an idiot who flails wildly and doesn't actually understand anything about military planning or logistics, and that a carrier can't just appear out of nowhere could be either, honestly Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Feb 7, 2019 |
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Feb 7, 2019 22:28
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I mean it's not as though there's been any actually advertised troop movements, and even if they were trying to keep it under wraps those things are hard to hide. If, say, the 1st Armored (Currently in Texas) or the 4th Infantry (Colorado) suddenly disappear, or if the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (Off the coast of South Carolina) starts steaming towards Venezuela, then, yeah, it's time to worry. Otherwise, though, it's hard to characterize any military response as 'imminent'—it took months for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to assemble, after all, and they were both blindingly obvious to anyone around for that entire time period. Maybe the reason there hasn't been any major obvious troop and navy deployments is because Trump is gonna do a sneak attack to take out Maduro? If anyone remembers from the election campaign he once began babbling on, during a debate with Clinton, how that was the key to take out ISIS, just kill 'em off in a sneak attack.
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Feb 7, 2019 22:52
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Mr. Sunshine posted:China and Russia have been investing in Venezuelan oil for years and years. But just like with any other international bully, their investment comes with massive strings attached. Seriously in what world would being beholden to Chinese or Russian geopolitical interests be any better than being beholden to the US? Did the last 25 years where China went hyper-capitalist and Russia became a right wing kleptocratic oligarchy not happen for some people or something?
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Feb 7, 2019 23:00
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Seriously in what world would being beholden to Chinese or Russian geopolitical interests be any better than being beholden to the US? paging Typo if China helped the PSUV get its poo poo together that might actually be one of the less terrible outcomes but there's no particular sign of that yet, and lol at the idea of Russia doing so
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Feb 7, 2019 23:04
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Seriously in what world would being beholden to Chinese or Russian geopolitical interests be any better than being beholden to the US? They are rivals of the United States and NATO ergo they can do no wrong in the eyes of the tankie.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:06
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Randarkman posted:Maybe the reason there hasn't been any major obvious troop and navy deployments is because Trump is gonna do a sneak attack to take out Maduro? If anyone remembers from the election campaign he once began babbling on, during a debate with Clinton, how that was the key to take out ISIS, just kill 'em off in a sneak attack. I mean, define sneak attack here. A carrier strike group or an infantry division aren't something that can pop out of the aether-they're massive units composed of tens of thousands of soldiers and sailors, and when they leave people notice. In the information age especially, you're going to have privates posting 'hey, gotta load up the strykers, what a pain in the rear end' on twitter, the wives of sailors posting about surprise deployments on Facebook, and other extremely obvious telltale markers that something is happening. At this point, an Iraq-style invasion, if one is planned or is being planned, simply isn't in the cards for at least a month, more likely two or three. Other kinds of military operations are certainly possible-the Lincoln CSG could, for instance, be deployed to support an actual military coup or rebellion within a few days-but that's a different scenario entirely. Also never listen to Trump on military strategy, ever
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Feb 7, 2019 23:13
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the bitcoin of weed posted:is this a joke? serious question No, this is not a joke. There is not currently any indication that the US military is even on the planning stages of an invasion of Venezuela. Nor is there any kind of propaganda push to sell the idea of a military intervention of Venezuela to the US population. Not even Fox News currently gives a single gently caress about Venezuela. And to be completely frank, yes, I know, Trump is supposedly the most powerful man in the world and him saying he wants to invade Venezuela should be an indication of what the US is about to do - but Trump is also a blabbering moron who will say anything at any moment for any reason, who has made an enemy of the US intelligence community and who, when push comes to shove, cannot even count on the support of his own administration. Nothing he or any of the warmongering morons surrounding him says carry any weight until you can point to actual action being taken for the US to invade Venezuela.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:18
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Schadenboner posted:How dare you slander fair Dominica so? Dominica is actually the only one I know anything about, as one of my best friends lived there for years. They have a huge hot water lake, massive endemic corruption, and it’s a huge hassle to get on or off the island because they have possibly the worlds worst airport for an independent country (iirc only allows tiny prop planes and it is absurdly expensive with almost no flights) so you have to take a ferry to Guadeloupe or Martinique, but those sometimes get cancelled or delayed by a day or more if there’s a big storm, which is not rare. It sounded like a shitshow, and I always wanted to visit but never did due to the above, and eventually my friend moved to NYC which I think is one of the few options available if you want to make a decent living without being some corrupt member of the government or in bed with corruption. That’s just my second hand take from one guy, no idea how accurate it really is, but the country got wrecked after hurricane Maria and I bet it’s still pretty rough. Even before then he said hiking was tough, like he’s a fit guy and it was a huge expedition to get to the smouldering lake. Jungle paths don’t stay free of vegetation very long and it’s not exactly a tourist hotspot.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:18
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Mr. Sunshine posted:Not even Fox News currently gives a single gently caress about Venezuela. lmao https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/cuban-hezbollah-and-iranian-cells-drawn-to-embattled-venezuela-mike-pompeo “People don’t recognize that Hezbollah has active cells – the Iranians are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America,” he said Wednesday. “We have an obligation to take down that risk for America.” “The Cubans invaded Venezuela,” Pompeo said on “Trish Regan Primetime Opens a New Window. .” “The Cubans have been controlling the security apparatus, protecting Maduro and destroying the way of life for the Venezuelan people for an awfully long time.” no propaganda push, not a single gently caress, except they found a dozen terrorist organizations in venezuela just now.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:24
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I mean, define sneak attack here. A carrier strike group or an infantry division aren't something that can pop out of the aether-they're massive units composed of tens of thousands of soldiers and sailors, and when they leave people notice. In the information age especially, you're going to have privates posting 'hey, gotta load up the strykers, what a pain in the rear end' on twitter, the wives of sailors posting about surprise deployments on Facebook, and other extremely obvious telltale markers that something is happening. I've got no idea. We're dealing with Trump here. I've got like a weird feeling that when he's talking about a sneak attack he's thinking of Pearl Harbor or something crazy like that. Also that's literally what he said in that debate, "take ISIS out with a sneak attack", I think thtat's actually Trump's idea of what military strategy is. It's both hilarious and frightening. Anyways I was mostly joking. I have no idea how the US would "do a sneak attack" on Venezuela.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:27
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Truga posted:lmao https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/cuban-hezbollah-and-iranian-cells-drawn-to-embattled-venezuela-mike-pompeo I mean, I get what you're saying, but that's nothing compared to the run up to Iraq.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:38
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Truga posted:lmao https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/cuban-hezbollah-and-iranian-cells-drawn-to-embattled-venezuela-mike-pompeo They want a war so bad they can taste it. It's their last hope for distracting from all the poo poo going on at home.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:38
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Truga posted:lmao https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/cuban-hezbollah-and-iranian-cells-drawn-to-embattled-venezuela-mike-pompeo The article you linked is not on the front page of Fox Business, nor can you easily find it unless you follow that direct link. Venezuela is not currently on any front page of any of the major news sites in the US.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:45
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Nucleic Acids posted:They want a war so bad they can taste it. It's their last hope for distracting from all the poo poo going on at home. Honestly though I think that they are aware of just how unpopular this war would be. Iraq and Afghanistan happened soon after a serious national tragedy and I think the American people have learned a lot about what modern war entails in the intervening years. Not to mention that a significant part of the Republican coalition these days is comprised of isolationist types for whom any form of intervention is abhorrent. It is entirely possible that I am being naive here, but I just don't see it happening, especially after Libya and that intervention was nothing compared to our other wars.
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Feb 7, 2019 23:49
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It would not be hard to just do limited strikes with cruise missiles from subs like we always do, war does not have to mean boots on the ground or valuable propaganda assets like pilots getting shot out of the sky. Treating military conflict like a low escalation police action is basically the US military's MO these days. Proxy war is still war, but it's much easier to sell. I imagine the main question is not use of force but rather to what degree and justifiable avenues of force are available and doubly how to spin them. I imagine they have been waiting for a strong enough casus belli and are much more cautious about building up spin. At the very least it's extremely easy to imagine Libya Two Electric Boogaloo.
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Feb 8, 2019 00:29
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Acebuckeye13 posted:I mean, define sneak attack here. A carrier strike group or an infantry division aren't something that can pop out of the aether-they're massive units composed of tens of thousands of soldiers and sailors, and when they leave people notice. In the information age especially, you're going to have privates posting 'hey, gotta load up the strykers, what a pain in the rear end' on twitter, the wives of sailors posting about surprise deployments on Facebook, and other extremely obvious telltale markers that something is happening. I was thinking about this the other day. If tomorrow Trump wakes up and decides to launch a full scale invasion of a country, what's the first thing that we're going to notice? I assume carrier groups starting to move would be the most obvious thing, but maybe we'd see military airports getting built up in Colombia and Brazil first, provided those countries consented. Secondly, how quickly can the US move to make that invasion a reality? From Saddam's invasion of Kuwait until the coalition initiated the ground war, it took six months. However that required a military build up that is probably larger than would be needed to defeat Venezuelan conventional forces. Estimating how long it took to prepare for other conflicts is more difficult. Looking at dates on wikipedia, my impression is the UNITAF invasion of Somalia with 37,000 troops took somewhere between 1-2 months to organize. Lastly, how many forces would the US need for a military intervention? The Venezuelan armed forces have about 120,000 soldiers, and I assume the US would want to at least match that in a conflict. I haven't seen any evidence that the US is preparing a military intervention. All statements by Bolton and Pompeo and anonymous government sources have been clear that their strategy is to apply financial pressure on the government with the objective of instigating a military coup against Maduro. As far as I can tell there is no evidence at this moment that the US government intends on doing anything else. That may change, but I feel the necessary scale of operations make a war unlikely. Venezuela is much bigger than Panama or Granada after all.
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Feb 8, 2019 00:34
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GoLambo posted:At the very least it's extremely easy to imagine Libya Two Electric Boogaloo. Yeah, this is what I consider the most realistic scenario that is somewhat plausible, though I imagine things wouldn't quite reach Libya levels of badness (it'd probably "just" devolve into your typical "developing nation being ruthlessly exploited by private Western corporations" situation, after the initial loss of life from bombings, etc).
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Feb 8, 2019 00:35
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GoLambo posted:It would not be hard to just do limited strikes with cruise missiles from subs like we always do, war does not have to mean boots on the ground or valuable propaganda assets like pilots getting shot out of the sky. Treating military conflict like a low escalation police action is basically the US military's MO these days. Proxy war is still war, but it's much easier to sell. I imagine the main question is not use of force but rather to what degree and justifiable avenues of force are available and doubly how to spin them. I imagine they have been waiting for a strong enough casus belli and are much more cautious about building up spin. You have to contextualize this in terms of what people are trying to accomplish. Typically when the US has used cruise missiles in solo strikes as in Libya, 1986, and Syria, 2018, they were used as punishment for something the US wanted to dissuade the government of those nations from doing. They were not really intended to produce a change of government, that wouldn't really make sense. The US could assassinate Maduro but he'd just be replaced with another member of the PSUV which wouldn't accomplish US objectives. A proxy war is more likely, but I haven't seen any evidence that the US is interested in starting one either. Look out for more statements from military exiles and defectors however, they will almost certainly telegraph if they start receiving foreign support. Thus far though all evidence points towards the US strategy being directed at supporting an internal uprising against the PSUV. To this end they will use diplomacy, money, and intelligence, to encourage, support and assist opposition to the PSUV.
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Feb 8, 2019 00:44
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Eh even in Libya the bombing was in support of boots on the ground in the form of the rebels. I can't think of a single campaign where bombing alone accomplished what you're suggesting.
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Feb 8, 2019 00:47
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Mr. Sunshine posted:I mean, I'm no goddamn libertarian or free market psychopath. I honestly believe that profits from Venezuelan oil should benefit the Venezuelan people. But in order for the money from oil to go back to the people, you need just that - profit. If the PDVSA runs at a loss, or just barely manages to break even, there's no money going back to the state. And currently, the PDVSA is in such a dire condition it will probably stop producing oil all together in a few years. To get the Venezuelan oil industry back to even a semblance of pre-maduro output, you'd need massive investment. Where's that money coming from? Is it gonna be paid by the nearly bankrupt state that can't even keep it's citizens fed? Or is it gonna come from international loans and private companies? The best long-term alternative is to let the oil extraction industry die.
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Feb 8, 2019 00:55
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Conspiratiorist posted:The best long-term alternative is to let the oil extraction industry die. well, yes, but if we waved our hand and erased the PDVSA and all its equipment which, tbf, is an endeavor Maduro has been working on the economic situation for Venezuelans on the ground would be even less amazing than it is that's one of the many reasons Maduro is a fucker, the PSUV leadership hasn't diversified the economy or socked money away for a post oil future or prepared for anything except their own personal wallets
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Feb 8, 2019 00:58
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GreyjoyBastard posted:well, yes, but if we waved our hand and erased the PDVSA and all its equipment Oh, it'd indeed be absolutely loving terrible with the current state of the country's basically non-existent economy, but what we're looking at is the choice between the IPCC's SR15 Scenarios 1 and 2, where the fossil fuel industry gets crushed within the next 10~15 years, or Scenario 3 where Venezuela becomes literally uninhabitable in 50 years. So trying to revitalize the country through oil extraction just isn't going to work. The extraction infrastructure would be rebuilt over the next couple years, natural resources plundered by foreign interests for a few years afterwards, and then the carbon bubble pops and it all just crashes back down again.
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Feb 8, 2019 01:20
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Conspiratiorist posted:Oh, it'd indeed be absolutely loving terrible with the current state of the country's basically non-existent economy, but what we're looking at is the choice between the IPCC's SR15 Scenarios 1 and 2, where the fossil fuel industry gets crushed within the next 10~15 years, or Scenario 3 where Venezuela becomes literally uninhabitable in 50 years. okay, yeah, now that i actually process this it's yet another way venezuela's future is likely to be not great
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Feb 8, 2019 02:50
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Eh even in Libya the bombing was in support of boots on the ground in the form of the rebels. I can't think of a single campaign where bombing alone accomplished what you're suggesting. It would certainly be an extremely stupid idea to try, to the point where even Bolton wouldn't attempt it. Trump, on the other hand, totally is that stupid; ordering an air strike against Venezuela without any broader plan is the sort of thing he would do, and in fact he really did do something similar in Syria.
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Feb 8, 2019 03:57
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Hello I heard this was a great place to discuss the democratically elected President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and his valiant resistance in the face of a fascist coup propped up by the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, the U.S.A. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 8, 2019 04:06
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Squalid posted:You have to contextualize this in terms of what people are trying to accomplish. Typically when the US has used cruise missiles in solo strikes as in Libya, 1986, and Syria, 2018, they were used as punishment for something the US wanted to dissuade the government of those nations from doing. They were not really intended to produce a change of government, that wouldn't really make sense. The US could assassinate Maduro but he'd just be replaced with another member of the PSUV which wouldn't accomplish US objectives. I understand that you're approaching this from a "what would it be logical for America to do" perspective, but you have to realize that Trump is in the White House. This is a man who had to be talked out of invading Venezuela last year (by advisers who have now been replaced by more war-hungry ones).
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Feb 8, 2019 04:29
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I agree that they were hoping that recognizing Guaidó would lead to a military coup. But that doesn't seem to be working, so the question is what their next move will be. The troops moving to Columbia and Trump's well-documented desire to invade Venezuela may provide us with some clues. I'd say I'm approaching this from an empirical perspective. When you say "logical" it seems like you mean 'good idea'. When trying to guess what Donald Trump has planned I don't worry about what is good or smart or wise. What I do is try and find evidence and make clear and specific inference regarding what that evidence means. Bolton specifically said he was hoping the military would recognize Guaido, so it is easy to infer that that is something he is trying to make happen. We also have Maduro visiting numerous military bases and ordering the arrest of several lower ranking officers, which suggests he too is concerned about the loyalty of his armed forces. It's foolish to ask questions like: Is Trump going to invade Venezuela? A better question to ask is: What evidence is there that Trump is going to invade Venezuela? These questions are importantly distinct. Right now, there are a few vague threats, but there is nothing that suggests any immediate action. You say troops are moving to Colombia. I must have missed this news, because I don't remember hearing about it. If true, it would definitely suggest an increase in the risk of direct military action. You aren't just referring to the yellow notepad are you? My sense was that was meant to be intimidating, but I haven't heard of it being realized yet. It may have just been bluster.
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Feb 8, 2019 05:41
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Squalid posted:You say troops are moving to Colombia. I must have missed this news, because I don't remember hearing about it. If true, it would definitely suggest an increase in the risk of direct military action. You aren't just referring to the yellow notepad are you? My sense was that was meant to be intimidating, but I haven't heard of it being realized yet. It may have just been bluster. 
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Feb 8, 2019 06:08
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Yes thank you, that is the yellow notepad I was referencing. Members of the Trump administration have also made vague threats of military action, for example by refusing to rule out the use military force against Maduro. These kinds of threats are enough to infer a desire for regime change, but they don't suggest imminent action. More interesting would be pictures of the 5000 soldiers in Colombia. I'm not sure what the implications of such a deployment would be anyway, since an occupation of Venezuela would require many times that number of soldiers. Pedro De Heredia, what kind of statements has the Colombian government made about Venezuela recently? If the US army wanted to conduct anti-Venezuela operations, do you think the President Duque would being will to provide support and air fields?
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Feb 8, 2019 06:56
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Imagining the comments section of a liberal German newspaper in 1939 arguing about the lack of concrete evidence for an invasion of Poland.
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Feb 8, 2019 07:10
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GoLambo posted:Imagining the comments section of a liberal German newspaper in 1939 arguing about the lack of concrete evidence for an invasion of Poland. I'm not sure this comparison supports the idea an American invasion of Venezuela is immenent. If for example, you look at the timeline of events in 1939 you should notice that it was obvious to the entire world at least two weeks in advance that Germany and Poland were about to go to war. Also, pointing out that there is not evidence of of American planning for an invasion is not an argument that there will not be an invasion. Take a look at The timeline of events preceding the invasion of Panama. Note that even after the Bush administration was openly and determinedly attempting to remove Noriega, it was still many months before they result to the direct method. The scale of an operation to remove Maduro would probably have to be much larger than that necessary to occupy Panama, so we should be able to recognize it earlier.
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Feb 8, 2019 07:36
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I'd also be done in coordination with Colombia and Brazil. Anyhow, I'd expect a distraction war but not this year - maybe next year? A few months out of the presidential. Of course, this timeline always finds wonderful new ways to surprise us.
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Feb 8, 2019 07:47
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Squalid posted:I'm not sure this comparison supports the idea an American invasion of Venezuela is immenent. If for example, you look at the timeline of events in 1939 you should notice that it was obvious to the entire world at least two weeks in advance that Germany and Poland were about to go to war. The US has almost certainly had an invasion on Venezuela planned and revisited and refined since Chavez took power. Trump is reportedly obsessed with Venezuela and Fox News hammers on the ills of Socialist Venezuela everyday. The Trump administration are just trying to justify intervention to the international community. They’ve already justified starving them out. if it wasn’t for EVIL China and Russia pushing back we would be on the precipice of war: Trump could flip at any second and this thing could boil over.
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Feb 8, 2019 07:52
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I'm assuming that the US is waiting for their newest sanctions to starve Venezuelans until they have no energy to fight back before initiating a false flag.
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Feb 8, 2019 08:26
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qkkl posted:I'm assuming that the US is waiting for their newest sanctions to starve Venezuelans until they have no energy to fight back before initiating a false flag. Reading 4 posts above you would tell you that Maduro is blocking the roads to the aid.
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Feb 8, 2019 08:27
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