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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Reading 4 posts above you would tell you that Maduro is blocking the roads to the aid. I'm assuming most of Venezuela's food shipments come in by sea.
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Feb 8, 2019 08:37
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qkkl posted:I'm assuming most of Venezuela's food shipments come in by sea. What is even your argument here?
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Feb 8, 2019 09:54
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Qkkl is either a low-effort troll, or 12 years old. Engage accordingly.
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Feb 8, 2019 10:05
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Ytlaya posted:Yeah, this is what I consider the most realistic scenario that is somewhat plausible, though I imagine things wouldn't quite reach Libya levels of badness (it'd probably "just" devolve into your typical "developing nation being ruthlessly exploited by private Western corporations" situation, after the initial loss of life from bombings, etc). "developing nation being ruthlessly exploited by
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Feb 8, 2019 11:02
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Mr. Sunshine posted:The article you linked is not on the front page of Fox Business, nor can you easily find it unless you follow that direct link. Venezuela is not currently on any front page of any of the major news sites in the US. MSNBC was running the same story about Venezuela every few hours yesterday where they had some chucklefuck standing in front of a pile of Bolivars trying to demonstrate that a month's salary would only be enough to buy food for a ham sandwich and a 2 liter of Coke, in addition to constant rerun footage of the barricade at the bridge crossing. Venezuela does not need to be front page stories in major papers every single day to build up the case for an intervention, especially when more people watch cable news than read print media, and certainly not when every mainstream outlet is already in unanimous agreement that the PSUV has to be overthrown. The case has already been made.
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Feb 8, 2019 13:36
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Supporting a change of government isn't the same thing as supporting foreign intervention (especially of the military kind). You can want Venezuelans to do the "overthrowing" themselves, and it's a pretty easy position to take since Maduro is wildly unpopular and only stays in power by clamping down on pesky democracy.
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Feb 8, 2019 13:48
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:MSNBC was running the same story about Venezuela every few hours yesterday where they had some chucklefuck standing in front of a pile of Bolivars trying to demonstrate that a month's salary would only be enough to buy food for a ham sandwich and a 2 liter of Coke, in addition to constant rerun footage of the barricade at the bridge crossing. Are you implying that hyperinflation and severe loss of purchasing power hasn't occurred, or just that you are annoyed MSNBC pointed it out?
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Feb 8, 2019 14:07
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Cicero posted:Supporting a change of government isn't the same thing as supporting foreign intervention (especially of the military kind). But they're not doing the overthrowing themselves, at least not until the American oil embargo completely destroys the economy anyway. Until then they're stuck twiddling their thumbs and waiting for the crisis to reach a tipping point, while building up the case for intervention day by day and week by week. I mean, the intervention is already happening. The United States is embargoing oil sales from going back to the government, government assets are being seized in financial centers across the world, and the First World and Lima Group are almost all in lockstep behind supporting Guaido as the de jure president. Whatever military action occurs will have to come months down the line when the crisis has worsened to the point of civil war, and after months of American military buildup and the mainstream media beating a constant drum beat that Maduro has to go. patonthebach posted:Are you implying that hyperinflation and severe loss of purchasing power hasn't occurred, or just that you are annoyed MSNBC pointed it out? It's annoying that this is being used as some sort of case for putting Venezuela under siege conditions while the United States is building up for some kind of military action, yes.
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Feb 8, 2019 14:08
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:It's annoying that this is being used as some sort of case for putting Venezuela under siege conditions while the United States is building up for some kind of military action, yes. What building up for military action?
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Feb 8, 2019 14:36
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It seems to me that the US looming over Venezuela supporting the opposition while openly cackling about how they're going to invade and take all the oil hands a large propaganda victory to Maduro and reduces the chances of a popular overthrow of his government. Not everyone in the country has the benefit of this thread to explain how it will only be a small invasion and how losing all the oil isn't that much worse than the status quo when you think about it.
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Feb 8, 2019 14:43
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I'm glad the internet leftist dudes are here to explain how Venezuelans *really feel*. And to correct the few remaining Venegoons on how they should *really be feeling*.
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Feb 8, 2019 14:49
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:But they're not doing the overthrowing themselves, at least not until the American oil embargo completely destroys the economy anyway. Venezuela's economy is already destroyed, and that destruction was done by Maduro and his cronies before the embargo was enacted.
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Feb 8, 2019 14:50
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Venezuela's economy is already destroyed, and that destruction was done by Maduro and his cronies before the embargo was enacted. If it was already destroyed then there would be no need for an embargo. The country would have already descended into civil war. Discendo Vox posted:What building up for military action? American officials signaling the deployment of US military personnel to Colombia, an increase of US military traffic to Colombia & Puerto Rico, Lil' Marco refusing to support a measure that would lend support to Guaido because it lacked military authorization. You can't expect everything to be happening all at once in a "buildup," it ramps up over time.
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Feb 8, 2019 15:19
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The Observatorio Venezolano de Conflictividad Social (Venezuela Civil Conflict Watch) is an NGO that tracks protest events in the country. They released a report yesterday with some figures for January:
The report also points out the fact that there have been 26 increases to the minimum monthly salary during Maduro's presidency. The first increase came in May 2013 when Maduro raised the figure to BsS. 0.002 (Bs. 2,467 at the time). The minimum monthly salary today is BsS. 18,000.
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Feb 8, 2019 15:35
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Presenting Nipples posted:The US has almost certainly had an invasion on Venezuela planned and revisited and refined since Chavez took power. That may be true. We just don't have information about it.
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Feb 8, 2019 16:39
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Squalid posted:That may be true. We just don't have information about it. "No talk about intervention until it's 100% clear that it's too late to do anything to prevent it" constitutes effective support for intervention, there's no two ways about it.
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Feb 8, 2019 16:51
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cool https://twitter.com/Travis_Waldron/status/1093857676793180161
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Feb 8, 2019 16:53
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Humanitarian second amendment aid, glad to hear we are Doing Something.
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Feb 8, 2019 16:56
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This guy's got a great thread on the alleged flight/company involved in this case: https://twitter.com/steffanwatkins/status/1093195121099788290 And here's a thread on the weapons that were allegedly seized: https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1093093174657105920
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Feb 8, 2019 17:06
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Chuck Boone posted:This guy's got a great thread on the alleged flight/company involved in this case:  "  NATO Shill"
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Feb 8, 2019 17:13
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"These aren't US government-issued guns!", I shout while talking about what is supposed to be a covert operation LMAO
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Feb 8, 2019 17:16
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Why would a plane flying between two drug trafficking hubs have guns in it. The CIA is the only explanation.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:20
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Why would a plane flying between two drug trafficking hubs have guns in it.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:23
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Caine Black Knife posted:"These aren't US government-issued guns!", I shout while talking about what is supposed to be a covert operation LMAO It’s simply too shabby for the Trump administration, known for its strict attention to detail and rigorous planning, to have undertaken.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:24
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Chuck Boone posted:This guy's got a great thread on the alleged flight/company involved in this case: A lot of the replies on the second post make the good point that these weapons wouldn't really make sense for clandestine US government provided weapons shipments - they're all semi-auto civilian weapons in a variety of calibers, as opposed to full-auto AKs or other military grade weapons. Like, they could be US government supplied (the operation is obviously stupid enough and sloppy enough), but it also doesn't really fit with how the US has supplied rebel groups in the past - compare it, for instance, to how the US provided arms to Syrian rebel groups just a few years ago. https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/save-us-from-todays-dr-strangeloves-20160707-gq0d74.html Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Feb 8, 2019 |
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Feb 8, 2019 17:26
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If the CIA does want to smuggle weapons into Venezuela, "by air on a cargo plane flying directly from Miami 19 rifles at a time" would be the stupidest possible way to do it. The border with Colombia is so porous that I don't think it's a stretch to say the US could drive crates of guns in at a time if they were willing to do it. I think I've linked this investigation in here before, but last year some journalists from a newspaper in Colombia called El Pais went undercover as fuel smugglers and just snuck across the border multiple times over two weeks and documented their journey. It's really a fascinating read if you haven't seen it yet. I don't know enough about the border with Brazil, but I'd venture a guess and say that it's even less guarded than the border with Colombia. Nevermind the fact that there are lots of guns in Venezuela already in the hands of really leaky institutions, namely the police and the army. To be clear: given what we know, I'm not saying that the CIA definitely did not fly those guns into Venezuela. I'm saying that if they did, it'd be the stupidest possible way to do it.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:34
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I could certainly believe the US has decided that running guns to Venezuela is a great idea, I'd just expect a) them to have started before Guaidó declared himself president, and b) those weapons to actually stand a chance against the Venezuelan military. Like, give 'em some ATGMs at least.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:35
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Acebuckeye13 posted:A lot of the replies on the second post make the good point that these weapons wouldn't really make sense for clandestine US government provided weapons shipments - they're all semi-auto civilian weapons in a variety of calibers, as opposed to full-auto AKs or other military grade weapons. They are both incredibly dumb. Chuck Boone posted:the CIA ... the stupidest possible way to do it.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:35
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Bob le Moche posted:What's the point of this? What's this game you're all playing where you keep arguing that we shouldn't talk about the possibility of intervention until there are actually boots on the ground in Caracas, no matter how much closer and closer things have been getting to that point? I have not said that "we shouldn't talk about the possibility of intervention." That would be rather strange for me to say since my post history is overly filled with speculation about how there might be an intervention. If you followed this series of posts of mine back to their origin, you would see I was commenting on a post by Acebuckeye13 wherein he was asserting an "invasion," presumably a large scale occupation of Venezuela by American soldiers, could not possibly occur in less than 2-3 months. This is because large operations require substantial build-ups which we can observe, and these have not occurred. This statement does not imply that there will not be an invasion at a later date. There are also alternative interventions that may occur without obvious tells. We will necessarily have less warning for these, but we can still make inferences about the intent and direction of US policy by observing public and anonymous statements coming from the Trump administration. You are suggesting that these statements imply a normative value judgement about American intervention. If they have been read that way I am sorry, I have made a mistake and have been unclear. Rather instead I am trying to establish through observation that which was, is, and what we can reasonably predict will be. I think that generally we should all be able to agree on these points, regardless of what we think is good, or moral, or just. Squalid fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Feb 8, 2019 |
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Feb 8, 2019 17:36
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Chuck Boone posted:If the CIA does want to smuggle weapons into Venezuela, "by air on a cargo plane flying directly from Miami 19 rifles at a time" would be the stupidest possible way to do it. the cia has maintained networks of civilian registered air freight companies for years. this is literally the exact way they would do it, and it's substantially cheaper/easier than trying to smuggle palettes of guns through a jungle or something
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Feb 8, 2019 17:36
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Why would the CIA drop rifles like that into the country when the most available ammunition in the country is contrary?
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Feb 8, 2019 17:42
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Air America, what's that? A new airline?
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Feb 8, 2019 17:42
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Why would the CIA drop rifles like that into the country when the most available ammunition in the country is contrary? see: The Arms and the Dudes. the us has a hard time obtaining non-standard weapons/ammunition because we have so many legal prohibitions against dealing with countries that produce it. the us military also gave nato weaponry to syrian rebels despite the fact that the nation is drenched in soviet-era ammo also, keep in mind: this plane started flying on jan 11 and made 40 round trips to venezuela in addition to trips to colombia. it was basically running day and night. even if they found relatively few weapons on this flight (presumably hidden among other goods), it would add up eventually to enough weapons to arm hundreds of people. and that's just from this one plane, presumably a cia operation would have had additional flights. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Feb 8, 2019 |
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Feb 8, 2019 17:46
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Concerned Citizen posted:the cia has maintained networks of civilian registered air freight companies for years. this is literally the exact way they would do it, and it's substantially cheaper/easier than trying to smuggle palettes of guns through a jungle or something I think my point still stands. Cost and ease of movement aren't the only things I'd be concerned about if I were an agency illegally smuggling weapons into a country. What about the concern of getting caught? Most of the border with Colombia isn't jungle. Colombia's a willing and eager US partner. Why not stage guns in Colombia with the consent of the authorities there and smuggle them in through there? Either by (non-jungle) border crossing, or by at least bouncing the plane around a bit so it's not flying directly from the continental U.S.? Same thing for Brazil. Again: I'm not saying this for sure isn't the CIA. I'm saying that if it is, it's an extremely stupid move given other options.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:49
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Why would the CIA drop rifles like that into the country when the most available ammunition in the country is contrary? It's possible the weapons shipments were organized independently by anti-Maduro Venezuelans, but maybe with tacit US government support. Its change in flight patterns mid-January that I find most suspicious. Still hard to say if this is truly anti-government activity or just everyday smuggling.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:50
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"Haha the CIA is a bunch of incompetent buffoons jumping around like monkeys, shipping a couple dozen random guns at a time into a country of 30m" "The CIA’s shadow war has been deadly effective and has decimated and starved the Venezuelan people and brought oil production to its knees to maintain world order. The CIA has its tendrils in everything, and can even give people fatal cancers through subtle methods" I honestly have no idea how you all (or you most) can air both of these thoughts on successive pages and not realize how absolutely goddamn contradictory it is. Except uninterrupted and bob le moche, who think there’s no crisis in Venezuela and the CIA has failed at that too. At least you two are consistently absolutely out of reality.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:51
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Chuck Boone posted:I think my point still stands. most of the colombian border is closed & guarded by venezuelan military since 2016, so it seems like that would be much riskier than smuggling it through air freight. that said, it's entirely possible to do both.
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Feb 8, 2019 17:53
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Chuck Boone posted:Colombia's a willing and eager US partner. Why not stage guns in Colombia with the consent of the authorities there and smuggle them in through there? Are we sure Colombia would consent? I thought Duque had come out against an American military intervention in Venezuela? Also the US might just prefer not to ask, if it doesn't have to. Concerned Citizen posted:most of the colombian border is closed & guarded by venezuelan military since 2016, so it seems like that would be much riskier than smuggling it through air freight. That might be less of a problem than you'd think. The Venezuelan military handles a good deal of the border smuggling, moving a few dozen guns on top of the hundreds of kilos of cocaine they are normally responsible for shouldn't be too onerous a job. Squalid fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Feb 8, 2019 |
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Feb 8, 2019 17:54
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Concerned Citizen posted:most of the colombian border is closed & guarded by venezuelan military since 2016, so it seems like that would be much riskier than smuggling it through air freight. It has been closed intermittently to civilian and commercial traffic over the past few years. I believe only commercial access is somewhat restricted now. Also, please take a look at this article. Having the army guard the border is meaningless when the army is in the smuggling business. I agree with you that it's possible to do both, but one option is extremely dumb and almost guaranteed to fail and the other is not so much. Squalid posted:Are we sure Colombia would consent? I thought Duque had come out against an American military intervention in Venezuela? Yes, you're right, Duque has come out against a military intervention (he's said that it would actually serve Maduro's interests because it would legitimate him). I was just putting on my CIA  for a minute.
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Feb 8, 2019 18:00
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A thing being obviously poorly planned and incompetently executed is definitely not proof that the American intelligence community wasn't involved.
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Feb 8, 2019 18:00
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