|
Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
|
27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
|
1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
|
12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
|
24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
|
59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
|
7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
|
25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
|
22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
|
21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
|
12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
|
48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
|
32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
|
284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
|
4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
|
9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
|
287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
|
10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
|
13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
|
17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
|
Jimong5 posted:Don’t leave president blank, find your favorite third party and throw them a vote, if a party can get to 5% of the vote then they qualify for FEC funds. Probably a meaningless gesture but eh Pfft what third party? gently caress it I’ll write in Barbara Lee. 
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:10
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 18:27 |
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Pfft what third party? There's probably a socialist party that'll show up on your ballot. Or you could get lucky and have
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:11
|
|
|
King of Solomon posted:There's probably a socialist party that'll show up on your ballot. Or you could get lucky and have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas#Results_3
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:24
|
|
|
PuppyD posted:He's going to be 78 if he runs. It's going to be much tougher in 2020 if he decides to run as he isn't going up against a poo poo candidate like Hillary but some pretty drat good campaigners.I wish him all the luck and if he wins the primary, I'll vote for him in the general. All presidents need handlers, and day-to-day operations are usually carried out by other people. This is not a new thing, and it would hardly be peculiar to Bernie. As long as he appoints good people, and chooses a good running mate, it's going to be fine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:26
|
|
|
PuppyD posted:I'm voting for anyone with a D next to their name in the general. Litmus tests and purity doesn't loving matter, at the end of the day RBG's replacement matters more than M4A. You have to win the general before you can appoint the justices, so writing off one of the most popular policy proposals in the country seems like a bad plan GreyjoyBastard posted:i've responded before and will respond again to that particular business: it was some of her minions showing up to what they assumed would be a slam dunk extension proceeding and finding out it was extremely not a slam dunk, whereupon they threw anything they could think of at the wall The bad thing was sending her underlings to fight to keep prisoners in unconstitutionally inhumane conditions in the first place, not the fact that she was too incompetent to hire minions smart enough to lie to a judge
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:28
|
|
|
Majorian posted:All presidents need handlers, and day-to-day operations are usually carried out by other people. This is not a new thing, and it would hardly be peculiar to Bernie. As long as he appoints good people, and chooses a good running mate, it's going to be fine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:30
|
|
|
Presidents lead, they don't micromanage.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:30
|
|
|
twodot posted:I've tried to have this conversation a couple times, does it not strike you as ludicrously absurd to say "It's fine if the President has a debilitating medical condition or dies suddenly, because he'll hire staff that will be just as good as him"? That would be a ludicrous thing to say! Thankfully, I'm not saying anything of the sort. Sanders' age increases the chances of him having a debilitating condition, but you and others treating that condition as something that will necessarily happen is...presumptuous, shall we say. And easily outweighed by the fact that he'll beat Trump, whereas most of his likely competitors would almost certainly get stomped.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:31
|
|
|
Majorian posted:All presidents need handlers, and day-to-day operations are usually carried out by other people. This is not a new thing, and it would hardly be peculiar to Bernie. As long as he appoints good people, and chooses a good running mate, it's going to be fine. I feel like this phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Something that keeps me up at night is not that Bernie will pick lovely people like Weaver because he wants to but because there aren’t enough non-poo poo people available for the positions.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:33
|
|
|
twodot posted:I've tried to have this conversation a couple times, does it not strike you as ludicrously absurd to say "It's fine if the President has a debilitating medical condition or dies suddenly, because he'll hire staff that will be just as good as him"? Who is this staff that's so amazing, and how about we just elect them to President and hire Sanders as an advisor? They aren't running and if they did they wouldn't win.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:34
|
|
|
Majorian posted:That would be a ludicrous thing to say! Thankfully, I'm not saying anything of the sort. edit: reignonyourparade posted:They aren't running and if they did they wouldn't win. twodot fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Feb 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:35
|
|
|
Nah, Bernie's health is fine. But even in the worst case scenario he's still the best person who's in the running.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:38
|
|
|
Majorian posted:That would be a ludicrous thing to say! Thankfully, I'm not saying anything of the sort. I went over this earlier but it's reasonable to guess that he has a 1/3 chance of dying in his first term and better than even odds he dies before 8 years. I don't think concerns over literally worse than russian roulette odds are ~*~presumptuous~*~ That being said, having a president kick the bucket isn't some huge catastrophe as long as he has a good running mate.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:38
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:I feel like this phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting. If he gets the nomination, there's going to be a lot more scrutiny on the people he picks. The fact that he's staffing up much earlier this time around than he did in 2016, plus the fact that I like a lot of the people he has onboard already, makes me feel confident of his judgment in this area. Morbus posted:I went over this earlier but it's reasonable to guess that he has a 1/3 chance of dying in his first term You're going to have to show your math on that. Using generic life expectancy tables, without taking into account his current state of health, his fitness regimen, his diet, his family history, etc, is pretty bogus. twodot posted:I'm not saying it will definitely happen, I'm saying it's a thing to care about. Literally nobody here has argued that it's not a thing for people to care about. I frequently say it's a thing to care about - it just shouldn't be a dealbreaker, given the much more problematic weaknesses of his likely competitors. quote:my response is "Let's just go ahead and elect the staff President now, instead of rolling the dice on, by your own words, increased chances of debilitating conditions" Except his advisors probably aren't going to have Sanders' record as a fighter for social and economic justice, or hold as much trust from the electorate as Bernie himself does. Matt Duss is a good foreign policy advisor, but no one's going to vote for him to be president, because no one who isn't a foreign policy geek like me knows who he is. Majorian fucked around with this message at 04:46 on Feb 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:42
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Except his advisors probably aren't going to have Sanders' record as a fighter for social and economic justice, or hold as much trust from the electorate as Bernie himself does.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:45
|
|
|
Nonsense posted:Presidents lead, they don't micromanage. Except Carter. That didn't go well.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:45
|
|
|
twodot posted:Ok so your trust Sanders to create a staff that can replace him, but you don't trust yourself to vote for the same staff that would replace him? I feel like you may not have the best handle on the difference between a highly-specialized advisor and a politician...
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:47
|
|
|
Brony Car posted:Except Carter. That didn't go well. you can't expect those tennis courts to manage themselves
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:49
|
|
|
twodot posted:Ok so your trust Sanders to create a staff that can replace him, but you don't trust yourself to vote for the same staff that would replace him? I'm SO here for President Stephanie Kelton.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:50
|
|
|
Honestly, I'd rather vote for someone who isn't over 70, isn't white, and isn't a dude. Ideally all three. The symbolic qualities of electing someone who isn't an old white dude have a value of their own. The problem is that I don't particularly want to vote for the tough-on-crime cop, the mayor who wants to fix poverty by gutting public schools, one of several Al(ice) Gores without the name recognition, or whatever Tulsi Gabbard is trying to go for. I don't even know what Beto O'Rourke is planning to run on. Since I don't value symbolism over policy, that doesn't leave a lot of options!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:53
|
|
|
Cease to Hope posted:Honestly, I'd rather vote for someone who isn't over 70, isn't white, and isn't a dude. Ideally all three. The symbolic qualities of electing someone who isn't an old white dude have a value of their own. The problem is that I don't particularly want to vote for the tough-on-crime cop, the mayor who wants to fix poverty by gutting public schools, one of several Al(ice) Gores without the name recognition, or whatever Tulsi Gabbard is trying to go for. I don't even know what Beto O'Rourke is planning to run on. Since I don't value symbolism over policy, that doesn't leave a lot of options! Exactly. Bernie's not perfect, but he's the best compromise candidate we're likely to have.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:54
|
|
|
Majorian posted:And easily outweighed by the fact that he'll beat Trump, whereas most of his likely competitors would almost certainly get stomped. It really bugs me when poo poo like this gets stated as a fact, when it's like, wild conjecture at best. It's not supported by any polling, but fine, polls now suck, but it's not even really supported by a cogent understanding of our political hyper-partisan landscape, where turnouts are high on pre-determined lines. Like, 99% of the people who vote D are going to vote D no matter who the candidate is, same with R, that's the reality we live in. You could argue, maybe, that Sanders will perform 1-2% better than some of his competition, and I miiiiiight agree with you, depending on who the rival is. But the idea that he'll do massively better just isn't supported by... anything.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 04:57
|
|
|
Z. Autobahn posted:It really bugs me when poo poo like this gets stated as a fact, when it's like, wild conjecture at best. It's not supported by any polling, but fine, polls now suck, but it's not even really supported by a cogent understanding of our political hyper-partisan landscape, where turnouts are high on pre-determined lines. Like, 99% of the people who vote D are going to vote D no matter who the candidate is, same with R, that's the reality we live in. We're having a discussion in which people are treating Sanders dying or having a debilitating condition during his first term as a given. I think that gives me license to use a little hyperbole of my own.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:05
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/politicony/status/1095123707067068416 I know people are going to view this as a joke but just a reminder that he has the biggest progressive achievement in the country since the ACA easily.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:06
|
|
|
Thing is people aren't seeing a choice between voting R and voting D, they're seeing a choice betwen voting R/D or staying home.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:07
|
|
|
Majorian posted:You're going to have to show your math on that. Using generic life expectancy tables, without taking into account his current state of health, his fitness regimen, his diet, his family history, etc, is pretty bogus. I really don't have to show my math, this is easy enough to look up. But here you go: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NWR5vOFe7H_hSiG2bqLFXZz6fnr9sUrajdZjLbUyNR8/edit?usp=sharing And yes, as I mentioned, there is a huge degree of individual variability in these things. I am not Bernie's crossfit trainer, nutritionist, or life coach, nor do I have his medical history or that of his family. With all those uncertainties, the best I can do is say he's as likely--as far as I know--to be below the average as he is to be above the average. And the average 79-80 year guy has roughly a 1/3 chance to die in 4 years and >50% chance to die in 8. This shouldn't be controversial. I'm just pointing out that an 80 year old dude has pretty sizeable odds of dying in 4-8 years. Have none of your pep peps died yet or what? This is pretty common sense.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:08
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Thing is people aren't seeing a choice between voting R and voting D, they're seeing a choice betwen voting R/D or staying home. Who the gently caress is staying home when they can vote against Trump?
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:10
|
|
|
Morbus posted:I really don't have to show my math, this is easy enough to look up. Yeah, you do, actually. You said he has a 1/3 chance of dying in his first term, based on broad averages that don't take a whole lot of variables into account - not the least of which would be the fact that he has some of the best health care in the world for free.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:11
|
|
|
twodot posted:I've tried to have this conversation a couple times, does it not strike you as ludicrously absurd to say "It's fine if the President has a debilitating medical condition or dies suddenly, because he'll hire staff that will be just as good as him"? Who is this staff that's so amazing, and how about we just elect them to President and hire Sanders as an advisor? Perhaps they don't have the name recognition/experience/skill at retail politics/willingness to run which is all necessary to win. You're acting like winning elections and administrative ability are the same skill, they aren't. twodot posted:Ok so your trust Sanders to create a staff that can replace him, but you don't trust yourself to vote for the same staff that would replace him? Do you think Majorian's single vote elects the President? There are a lot of people I would vote for who wouldn't be good at getting other people to vote for them. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Feb 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:16
|
|
|
twodot posted:I've tried to have this conversation a couple times, does it not strike you as ludicrously absurd to say "It's fine if the President has a debilitating medical condition or dies suddenly, because he'll hire staff that will be just as good as him"? Who is this staff that's so amazing, and how about we just elect them to President and hire Sanders as an advisor? One of the good things about Bernie is that he wouldn't be hiring the same hacks from the Clinton administration that pretty much any other D would.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:17
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:Who the gently caress is staying home when they can vote against Trump? 80 million registered voters, last time they had the opportunity
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:20
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:Thing is people aren't seeing a choice between voting R and voting D, they're seeing a choice betwen voting R/D or staying home. Sure, I'm factoring that in. The vast majority of people who turn out will turn out regardless of candidate, and same for the vast majority who'll stay home. The candidate matters at the margins: for example, if Sanders had been the nominee in 2016, I think the Dem margin might've been ~1.5% better based on turnout, and that would've almost certainly swung the election. But the idea that one Dem candidate will win effortlessly while the others while be crushed just isn't how it works. The 2020 hyper-partisan electorate fundamentally doesn't have that level of elasticity.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:28
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Yeah, you do, actually. You said he has a 1/3 chance of dying in his first term, based on broad averages that don't take a whole lot of variables into account - not the least of which would be the fact that he has some of the best health care in the world for free. I said the numbers were based on basic actuarial tables which you can literally google. Yes, if we wan't to sperg out about it we can try to correct for things like income and race. I would point out that 1.) the effect of income on mortality diminishes with age and 2.) the survival curves for men in the 95th percentile are much closer to the average numbers than for men in the 5th income percentile--i.e. poor people get poo poo on but being rich doesn't buy you that much once you've ascended to geezerdom. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4866586/ Like the survival curve for men in the 95th income percentile is barely different than what I described from the US average data. We could go a step further and only look at white men in the 95th income percentile, but for reasons that are hopefully obvious that would be mostly superfluous. Also, for what it's worth, his father died when he was 58 and his mother died when she was 48, although I don't know the cause. Anyway, I'm gonna vote for him, I'll take my chances. And like I said its not some big deal if he dies as long as we get a half decent running mate. Since Sanders is very much aware of his own mortality I'm sure he is not gonna mess around with his VP pick. But its disingenuous to pretend like "hmmyes this 80 year old will have no issues surviving for 4-8 years" Edit: Sanders' brother is 83 and still ticking, at least Morbus fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Feb 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:28
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:Do you think Majorian's single vote elects the President? There are a lot of people I would vote for who wouldn't be good at getting other people to vote for them. My single vote actually does. I just voted for Trump to avenge Seth Rich.  Morbus posted:I said the numbers were based on basic actuarial tables which you can literally google. Or, here's a crazy idea - maybe you could just try to avoid making bizarre and unsubstantiated claims like "Bernie has a 1 in 3 chance of dying in his first term."
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:29
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:https://twitter.com/politicony/status/1095123707067068416 How so? I don’t really follow NYC politics.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:29
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:Who the gently caress is staying home when they can vote against Trump? The people who assume everyone else is obviously going to?
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:30
|
|
|
VitalSigns posted:
That's also a solid argument, yeah! Cease to Hope posted:C) she engendered an environment where her underlings felt comfortable arguing in favor of slave labor, or else is herself a product of that environment. This too!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:31
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:The people who assume everyone else is obviously going to? Public stonings are more fun when the whole town participates.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:34
|
|
|
SeANMcBAY posted:How so? I don’t really follow NYC politics. Free Universal Pre-K.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 18:27 |
|
|
gently caress, whether anyone would VOTE for any of the 'Bernie's potential staff that twodot thinks we should try to elect instead' is neither here nor there, because if they WERE running people wouldn't hear about them in the first place because nobody in the media would report on them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2019 05:37
|
|