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Chuck Boone posted:... so Maduro put the cargo containers to... block the bridge? Which is precisely what the story was. The implication from the initial coverage was that Maduro was closing an active bridge. He wasn't.
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Feb 21, 2019 20:46
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" as if that somehow negates the placement of the containers which, as you agree, was done to block the bridge when it was opened to allow the aid transport. Well, "confused" might be the wrong word, given how the debate on this issue has developed. "Disappointed" or "saddened" might be better.
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I'm all for letting Citibank take a billion dollar loss on this.
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Feb 21, 2019 20:46
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brugroffil posted:The implication from the initial coverage was that Maduro was closing an active bridge. He wasn't. He has now closed several active borders.
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Feb 21, 2019 20:47
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brugroffil posted:seems like a fundamental flaw in the constitution then, or at least in the "this counts as abandonment" interpretation vs. actual physical abandonment you can't really write a constitution to protect the government from someone overthrowing all of the democratic institutions with the support of the military. no amount of legal procedure can prevent someone from using their military support to seize the state
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Feb 21, 2019 20:48
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brugroffil posted:seems like a fundamental flaw in the constitution then, or at least in the "this counts as abandonment" interpretation vs. actual physical abandonment Even if the Constitution said "it's up to the interim president to call the election" (it doesn't) and Guaido were to call the election, then it would still be up to the Consejo Nacional Electoral to actually organize and conduct the vote. So, even if Guaido were to say "I'm calling the election for next month!", absolutely nothing would happen because the CNE wouldn't lift a finger. You can read fault in the Constitution for that, but as you can imagine thinking up all of the possible scenarios when drafting one of these things isn't easy. The way that the Constitution is worded in regards to this issue is clearly aimed at a functioning state with separate and independent powers (like the CNE and the army) working together to remove a tyrant from power. The situation today is that the tyrant has control of every branch of government except the legislative. brugroffil posted:The implication from the initial coverage was that Maduro was closing an active bridge. He wasn't. I disagree. The implication to me was that he was blocking the bridge to stop the delivery of the aid, which is precisely what he's done. As beer_war pointed out, this is his MO, which is why he's also ordered the closure of the border with the ABC islands and Brazil. Whether the bridge was ever opened or not takes nothing away from Maduro's intention in the placing of those cargo containers. This is just gaslighting by pro-regime folks. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 20:53
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Chuck Boone posted:as you agree, was done to block the bridge when it was opened to allow the aid transport. You can’t unilaterally open a border. That’s typically called either smuggling or an invasion. Nations have borders, and it’s very telling that none of the Venezuelans in this thread who actually live in Venezuela want the Trump guns/bribes/maybe a bag of rice caravan crossing in their country.
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Feb 21, 2019 20:56
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I forgot to post this yesterday, but we've got the results of a new survey out, this one by Hercon Consultores. The last two that I've shared were from Meganalisis. Some highlights:
The poll is consistent with the ones from Meganalisis that we've seen in recent weeks showing overwhelming support for Guaido and overwhelming rejection of Maduro. Maduro's "base" still seems to be sub-20%, which is a number that we've been seeing consistently since at least 2014. The survey was conducted between February 3-18 and had a sample size of 1,200. It has a margin of error of 3.2% and a 95% level of confidence. 54.5% of those polled qualify as "poor" or "extremely poor".
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Feb 21, 2019 21:16
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uninterrupted posted:You can’t unilaterally open a border. That’s typically called either smuggling or an invasion. I haven't seen this, do people in Venezuela really not want food aid if it comes from the USA? It seems like if it was such a uniform desire to reject the aid there wouldn't be quite as much of a story around it.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:20
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Kawasaki Nun posted:I haven't seen this, do people in Venezuela really not want food aid if it comes from the USA? It seems like if it was such a uniform desire to reject the aid there wouldn't be quite as much of a story around it. Nah, he's full of poo poo. There's like one or two Venezuelans in this thread who haven't already fled the country, so that's not much of a sample size in any case. And if I remember right, they detest Maduro.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:25
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Kawasaki Nun posted:I haven't seen this, do people in Venezuela really not want food aid if it comes from the USA? It seems like if it was such a uniform desire to reject the aid there wouldn't be quite as much of a story around it. Psst: the US already got caught smuggling guns into the country like 2 weeks ago, it’s not really food aid.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:42
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Hugo Carvajal has just released a video statement abandoning Maduro and recognizing Juan Guaido as interim president: https://twitter.com/hugocarvajal4f/status/1098681363862036480 I'll have a translation up soon. This is huge! Carvajal was once the head of the DGCIM (military counter-intelligence) and was a loyal Chavez aide.
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Feb 21, 2019 21:43
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i am the leftist who believes the cops when they brag about their latest big bust
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Feb 21, 2019 21:43
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Chuck Boone posted:... so Maduro put the cargo containers to... block the bridge? Which is precisely what the story was. Look, it's really simple. If the bridge was never opened, then it's not really a bridge. The fact that aid COULD come across that fully-functional but non-existent bridge and Maduro refuses to let it across while people are starving is meaningless. What matters is that the bridge isn't really a bridge and the imperialist media tried to trick you. gottem 
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Feb 21, 2019 21:45
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The idea the US needs to smuggle guns into the country to arm opposition supporters is ridiculous for two reasons: 1. Guns are already easier to get your hands on than it is to find the medicine you need or certain food staples. If you have money, you can get your hands on a gun in no time. 2. There's no armed opposition movement. The government is the one with the guns and they're the one that have killed hundreds of protesters, whereas there are only a handful of times where opposition supporters have been the ones doling out violence. Plus, Venezuela is a smuggling haven. If you wanted to bring guns into the country, there are a hundred ways to do it. Just pay off the right people and you can bring in anything you want. Is it possible the US is smuggling guns into Venezuela? Of course. However, believing that's why the Maduro government decided to block that particular bridge is incredibly stupid. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 21:55
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Chuck Boone posted:Hugo Carvajal has just released a video statement abandoning Maduro and recognizing Juan Guaido as interim president: "Soldado Bolivariano". I guess not that Bolivarian now, huh.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:03
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Chuck Boone posted:Hugo Carvajal has just released a video statement abandoning Maduro and recognizing Juan Guaido as interim president: quote:In September 2008, the United States Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) accused Carvajal of helping Colombian guerrilla FARC in its drug trafficking activities by protecting them from drugs seizures, supplying arms and providing with Venezuelan official documents. seems like a cool guy
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Feb 21, 2019 22:07
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Oh yeah, Carvajal was way up there. He was also appointed ambassador to Aruba in 2014, but he got arrested there on a U.S. warrant related to his alleged drug trafficking activities, but was released after Maduro put a ton of pressure on the island. I suspect that the Amnesty Law is a big part of the reason why he's chosen to flip. I'd rank him #4 in the "Big Wig Defectors" list along with Luisa Ortega Diaz, Miguel Rodriguez Torres, and Rafael Ramirez. EDIT: The last I remember hearing from him is, I think, from back in 2017 when he spoke out against Maduro's Constituent Assembly. That made news because, again, he was a high-profile figure speaking out against Maduro. So he's got a track record of not being in lockstep with Maduro going back to at least 2017. He was the head of the DGCIM from 2004-2014. That's the military counterintelligence agency. So, yeah, he was way up there. He's also a member of the National Assembly for Monagas state! Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 22:10
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interesting. is this one of those "lost power fifteen minutes ago when he defected" cases, or a "lost power years back, has proclaimed that actually he is now against the guys who reshuffled him out of power" case? we're quite fond of the latter! they make for WONDERFUL purge coordinators, because they've already got a convenient list of enemies and people who they would trust with the job of making those enemies disappear.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:11
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got a little drool on your chin there YMB
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Feb 21, 2019 22:12
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Concerned Citizen posted:seems like a cool guy do you have a problem with his loyal defense of international revolutionary socialism
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Feb 21, 2019 22:13
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Cease to Hope posted:got a little drool on your chin there YMB history is a beautiful thing, and it does my heart good to see people celebrating its repetition
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Feb 21, 2019 22:13
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Cease to Hope posted:got a little drool on your chin there YMB This copied and pasted "argument" is like when climate change deniers say that the rest of us enjoyed Water World too much.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:27
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Ruzihm posted:This copied and pasted "argument" is like when climate change deniers say that the rest of us enjoyed Water World too much. what
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Feb 21, 2019 22:30
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Enflame, distract, reframe.
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Feb 21, 2019 22:46
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Discendo Vox posted:Enflame, distract, reframe. You serious? "got a little drool on your chin there" is textbook ad hominem 
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Feb 21, 2019 22:48
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Ruzihm posted:You serious? "got a little drool on your chin there" is textbook ad hominem Who cares
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Feb 21, 2019 22:57
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Discendo Vox posted:Enflame, distract, reframe. proclaim your opponents must be the REAL ones horny for venezuelan death, act stupid when called on it, declare having an opinion on the subject Active Russian Measures
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Feb 21, 2019 23:00
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Labradoodle posted:The idea the US needs to smuggle guns into the country to arm opposition supporters is ridiculous for two reasons: Maybe not guns but the food could be traded for guns or instructions on how to make guns. In the end it doesn’t matter what’s actually in those bags. It’s meta guns all the way down. Even rice can be cooked into a gun like device.
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Feb 21, 2019 23:01
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uninterrupted posted:You can’t unilaterally open a border. That’s typically called either smuggling or an invasion. Which Venezuelans in country said they don't want the aid?
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Feb 21, 2019 23:03
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Ruzihm posted:You serious? "got a little drool on your chin there" is textbook ad hominem YMB is making non-interventionist leftists such as myself look bad because he's always posting like a loving ghoul people who post evil (pro-intervention westerners) are much more evil than people who post bad (ghoulish or clueless or chauvinist tankies) because the former have institutional power behind them, but christ, the people who post bad sure do post bad Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:proclaim your opponents must be the REAL ones horny for venezuelan death this argument would be a lot more effective if you didn't constantly post about how you are horny for venezuelan death to prove you right
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Feb 21, 2019 23:03
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Bip Roberts posted:Who cares it was kind of funny the first time but it's getting old now is all ^Fair enough I guess Ruzihm fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 23:11
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https://twitter.com/ChrisPrensa/status/1098642235258822657 With all these videos today of groups of Venezuelans working together to let the humanitarian aid trucks in/out of the country, it looks like the shithead bus driver has accidentally stumbled upon bringing socialism to Venezuela. Bravo, Nico. Mission accomplished!
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Feb 21, 2019 23:21
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Private Witt posted:https://twitter.com/ChrisPrensa/status/1098642235258822657 Wow, if I didn't know better since I've seen a lovely paid reporter in a rich grocery store with a few bottles of ketchup, I'd think those people in crisis really need some aid.
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Feb 21, 2019 23:27
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Here's a drone shot of the stage for Venezuela Aid Live concert. I knew that it was going to be on the border, but I didn't think it'd be on the border: https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1098713838797627392 EDIT: https://twitter.com/DylanBaddour/status/1098716419666042881 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Feb 21, 2019 |
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Feb 21, 2019 23:50
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Chuck Boone posted:I forgot to post this yesterday, but we've got the results of a new survey out, this one by Hercon Consultores. The last two that I've shared were from Meganalisis. The link on his twitter to his website is a dead link, the closest I could find to an internet presence for “Hercon Consultores” is this blogspot. This guy makes Zogby look like a respected source.
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Feb 22, 2019 00:04
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Referring to weight and facial hair
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Feb 22, 2019 00:04
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Hercon's been doing surveys since at least 2011. They're one of the most widely recognized polling firms in the country (along with Meganalisis and Datanlisis). If you've got an issue with the methodology, that's one thing, but don't let poor website design and broken links fool you. If poor web presence is supposed to be a sign of illegitimacy, then I don't recommend that you try accessing any government websites. Discendo Vox posted:Referring to weight and facial hair Hittler and Sadam (not to be confused with Hitler and Saddam) were apparently really good dudes I guess??
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Feb 22, 2019 00:16
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Chuck Boone posted:Hercon's been doing surveys since at least 2011. They're one of the most widely recognized polling firms in the country (along with Meganalisis and Datanlisis). I just find it darkly hypocritical that when I post a poll from a large, respected media source it gets pilloried due to the source having connections to chavez, but anything the opposition posts (even if it is from a "widely recognized" blogspot pollster) has to be judged on its own merits.
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Feb 22, 2019 00:43
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Chuck Boone posted:Hittler and Sadam (not to be confused with Hitler and Saddam) were apparently really good dudes I guess?? Hey you can say a lot of things about Saddam, but he had a killer mustache.
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Feb 22, 2019 00:48
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I just find it darkly hypocritical that when I post a poll from a large, respected media source it gets pilloried due to the source having connections to chavez, but anything the opposition posts (even if it is from a "widely recognized" blogspot pollster) has to be judged on its own merits. I'm sorry that this happens to you. I don't know if Hercon is connected to the opposition. Their last survey ahead of the 2015 parliamentary election, which was released in November, had the PSUV at 31.6% (vs. 40.9% in the actual election) and the opposition at 60.1% (vs. 56.2% in the actual election).
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Feb 22, 2019 00:50
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