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Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Dapper_Swindler posted:

hasn't he done that before, like a couple years ago?

I can't remember if he's formally broken relations with Colombia before. I don't think he has.

He did close the border with Colombia a few times and once deported over a thousand Colombians living along the border, forcing many more to flee the country in fear for their safety.

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Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

RaySmuckles posted:

here are a couple of good, informative podcasts over the last 2 weeks that i think have done a good job explaining the situation, certainly helped contextualized the situation for me, hosted by a dude who has been consistent for over 10 years with a wide array of guests including former un rapporteur Alfred de Zayas who just finished reporting to the un how damaging the sanctions have been in late 2018.

What's cool is that if you actually read the report, it provides no evidence for this assertion.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

More defections:

https://twitter.com/caseysjournal/status/1099388905193787393
https://twitter.com/caseysjournal/status/1099389419243499520

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Discendo Vox posted:

I’ve gotta do a deep dive effortpost on UN politics and structuration sometime. I’m surprised it’s taken this long to cycle back around to de Zayas.

all of the other interviews are better than the de zayas one

invading venezuela is the absolute worst thing the us can do and we're poised to do it

most likely as a yemen-esque "just pay the neighboring countries to do it, pick the targets, give them the supplies, just have them be the ones to finally pull the trigger"

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
What’s Russia up to?

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Shaocaholica posted:

What’s Russia up to?

their aid is on the way, along with china's

surely its seen in this thread as equally legitimate as the american aid

uninterrupted
Jun 20, 2011

zapplez posted:

I have no idea where you are getting your history but Libya was not great. Holy poo poo they had public hangings on the regular. Homosexuality was illegal and punishable by up to five years in jail. Their healthcare system was not good since the 80s. And so what if the rulers were rich? Its easy with oil.

The country is terrible now too.

But still , my point was its possible for the results in Venezuela to be different than Iraq/Libya. It's not guaranteed Venezuela will be worse when Maduro is shuffled out.

It actually is, because that’s what happens in every country the US overthrows.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

Shaocaholica posted:

What’s Russia up to?

Maduro was on TV the other day bragging that X amount of Russian aid was coming. It looks like some aid is coming, but it's not from the Russian government (whole thread here):

https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/1098745638467092481

EDIT: Other tweets:

https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/1098753130215415809

So the aid is physically coming from Russia but it's not "from" Russia.

ChaseSP
Mar 25, 2013



Watching and pressuring Maduro on payments more than likely.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
There's been three more defections. These ones were caught on tape:

https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/1099391695525941248

I've lost count, but I think we're probably at 12-15 defections into Colombia today.

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer

RaySmuckles posted:

surely its seen in this thread as equally legitimate as the american aid

This but unironically because I actually care if my people starve to death or not

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


zapplez posted:

Is it really a hot take to say living in a dictatorship was a bad time?

There is quite a bit of Western Man's Burden coming through that post imo

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

RaySmuckles posted:

their aid is on the way, along with china's

surely its seen in this thread as equally legitimate as the american aid

why wouldn't it be?

Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

RaySmuckles posted:

their aid is on the way, along with china's

surely its seen in this thread as equally legitimate as the american aid

It's pretty cool that the US forced Maduro to actually start paying attention to the humanitarian crisis in his country, huh? He could have been getting aid from friendly states this whole time but apparently couldn't be bothered.

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Norton the First posted:

It's pretty cool that the US forced Maduro to actually start paying attention to the humanitarian crisis in his country, huh? He could have been getting aid from friendly states this whole time but apparently couldn't be bothered.

yes, the solution is to make an even bigger humanitarian crisis right next to the first one by bombing/invading their country

this will snuff out the first humanitarian crisis by sucking in all the coverage and suffocating it

nothing, and i mean nothing, helps a country out like "bombing them back to the stone age"

electrical plants? water treatment facilities? major highways? those are all actually obstacles to ending a humanitarian crisis

RaySmuckles fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Feb 23, 2019

AGGGGH BEES
Apr 28, 2018

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Let's not humor the dumbass guy who's bad at posts (and also bad at everything else).

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
This is the Venezuela thread, not the snuff fiction thread.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp

RaySmuckles posted:

they're about to invade and bomb venezuela after a failed coup that they themselves orchestrated

for the record, here's the estimated location of every US Navy carrier strike group and amphibious ready group (i.e. marines) as of the 21st



the US is absolutely not about to bomb or invade anything, there's simply no assets in place to do it with

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

RaySmuckles posted:


here are a couple of good, informative podcasts over the last 2 weeks that i think have done a good job explaining the situation, certainly helped contextualized the situation for me, hosted by a dude who has been consistent for over 10 years with a wide array of guests including former un rapporteur Alfred de Zayas who just finished reporting to the un how damaging the sanctions have been in late 2018.

these links also have the transcripts so you can read them instead of just listen

here's a quote:


https://theintercept.com/2019/02/13/neoliberalism-or-death-the-u-s-economic-war-against-venezuela/

https://theintercept.com/2019/02/20/regime-change-we-can-believe-in-the-u-s-agenda-in-venezuela-haiti-and-egypt/

thanks for the links

immediate response to skimming:

- Carlos Ron (the first guest in the first link) is not a credible source on anything except pro-Maduro propaganda, but on the plus side he's not the only guest
- okay, let's look at Zayas

quote:

Now, one of the principle demands of the opposition was to advance the presidential elections and the agreement that was reached on the 6th of February 2018 provided for advanced presidential elections in April of 2018. So that as a concession to the opposition, that as a satisfaction of the demands of the opposition to have elections. Now the opposition knew very well that they could not win the elections. Knowing that, they decided to boycott them.

obviously, i have some objections to this narrative

quote:

Now obviously, Leopoldo López was in house arrest. Why? Because he had been calling for violence. I mean, in any country if you are inciting violence, that is a criminal offense under any penal code. There are many other opposition leaders who could have run in those elections, but decided, simply strategically, not to participate. So, they are trying to wage war from outside the country.

and a bunch of other stuff, some of which i object to less strenuously and some of which i agree with

exactly zip, however, on actual impacts of pre-late-2018 sanctions, but maybe he didn't want to reiterate the stuff from his UN report and preferred to focus on new developments and the opposition's legitimacy

in general, i find the first article only mildly interesting because I've heard the arguments more than a few times and there aren't a lot of new facts, but it's a perfectly serviceable primer on the pro-Maduro (Carlos Ron) and, uh, less counterfactual extremely-opposition-critical (Zayas) takes on current happenings

--

The second article/podcast (well, the KI guy) has some interesting stuff on the current situation in Haiti and I think it's worth reading. for one guest, if maybe not the other

--

Here's a pdf of the de Zayas report:

https://chicagoalbasolidarity.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/un-report-on-venezuela-and-ecuador-alfred-de-zayas.pdf

He's apparently historically been pretty sympathetic to Maduro, but hey, that's no reason to assume the report's bullshit without reading it, right? I'll get around to it later.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/PastorKelly822/status/1099396056037707783?s=2
I’d rather not a goddamn dime of US Aid ends up in this assholes hands tho.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
okay, maybe i'll skim the report now instead

I'm going to have to chew on it a bit. He makes a lot of sourced-but-extremely-terse claims, which means reading the footnote sources is mandatory. There's some potentially interesting stuff here, and there are also places where he repeats from sources and analyses that are highly questionable (albeit usually with a "the Venezuelan central bank says" sort of thing).

Here's an amusing, and deeply relevant to the days this thread was better, one that is both maybe-not-100%-wrong and almost-certainly-misleading

quote:

Furthermore, staff of the Banco
Central de Venezuela explained to the Independent Expert that the pernicious exchange rate
published on a website that was not grounded in factual purchase and sale transactions had
been negatively impacting the economy, primarily, as a price marker, raising inflations
levels, constituting an instrument of war that had risen constantly, accumulating during the
year an upward variation trend over 2,465 per cent.

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Socialism isn't the same as kleptocracy. Venezuela was never truly socialist.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Some of the aid burned:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1099391323092721670

ChaseSP
Mar 25, 2013



I think it's too soon to say the regime actively burnt the food rather than it being an accident in the first place.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

ChaseSP posted:

I think it's too soon to say the regime actively burnt the food rather than it being an accident in the first place.

Yeah, I'm not endorsing the text of the tweet. FWIW the journalist says that the fire was started by tear gas canisters fired by the National Bolivarian Police.

EDIT: This journalist is reporting the same thing:

https://twitter.com/isnardobravo/status/1099397133202001921

wielder
Feb 16, 2008

"You had best not do that, Avatar!"

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Here's an amusing, and deeply relevant to the days this thread was better, one that is both maybe-not-100%-wrong and almost-certainly-misleading

Having a fixed exchange rate that depends only on the government's whim has done nothing except promote the existence of black market exchanges and also contribute to the inflation. They should seriously get rid of that, but nope.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010

Against All Tyrants

Ultra Carp

GreyjoyBastard posted:

okay, maybe i'll skim the report now instead

I'm going to have to chew on it a bit. He makes a lot of sourced-but-extremely-terse claims, which means reading the footnote sources is mandatory. There's some potentially interesting stuff here, and there are also places where he repeats from sources and analyses that are highly questionable (albeit usually with a "the Venezuelan central bank says" sort of thing).

Here's an amusing, and deeply relevant to the days this thread was better, one that is both maybe-not-100%-wrong and almost-certainly-misleading

The report's come up in this thread before, and yeah my take was that the dude has some impressive credentials but his report mainly repeats things that government sources have told him, which is obviously not ideal when the government is flat-out lying about several of the subjects he's reporting on (Such as the inflation rate).

Norton the First
Dec 4, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
Also calling a website that publishes an unofficial exchange rate "an instrument of war" is hilarious.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

brugroffil posted:

There is quite a bit of Western Man's Burden coming through that post imo

Are you alleging Venezuelans are not western?

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Acebuckeye13 posted:

for the record, here's the estimated location of every US Navy carrier strike group and amphibious ready group (i.e. marines) as of the 21st



the US is absolutely not about to bomb or invade anything, there's simply no assets in place to do it with

hmm, i heard this and accept that it is misleading because it doesn't explicitly say "fighters/bombers/strike aircraft"

quote:

We don’t know what, but the administration says that all options are on the table, a clear military threat.

The U.S. military meanwhile has been landing planes on the Colombian border with Venezuela using the cover of humanitarian aid shipments.

quote:

Over the weekend, an extremely sweaty Senator Marco Rubio of Florida appeared on CNN from the Colombia border where the U.S. military planes have been landing
once again, a c-130 is also a military plane, not just f-16s and poo poo


but 2 things

1) they don't need aircraft carriers if they can just use neighboring airbases

2) more likely, the yemen approach: just have brazil and colombia do it, though looking at the planes listed in the air forces they have little more than light CAS

https://www.infodefensa.com/latam/2019/02/04/noticia-sondea-contratistas-posible-envio-tropas-colombia.html

gotta leave to run errands though, so adios!

fishmech posted:

Are you alleging Venezuelans are not western?

well, not western european, or directly of it, which is the typical insinuation when people invoke "the west"

lmao, never change, fishmech

RaySmuckles fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Feb 23, 2019

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


It is located entirely in the Western Hemisphere so... :shrug:

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy
China says humanitarian aid should not be forced into Venezuela

quote:


BEIJING (Reuters) - Humanitarian aid should not be forced into Venezuela, lest it cause violence, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday, warning that Beijing opposed military intervention in the country.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

Acebuckeye13 posted:

for the record, here's the estimated location of every US Navy carrier strike group and amphibious ready group (i.e. marines) as of the 21st



the US is absolutely not about to bomb or invade anything, there's simply no assets in place to do it with

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Negrostrike posted:

It is located entirely in the Western Hemisphere so... :shrug:

I dunno why I didn't say white man's burden but yeah that is the message coming through that post

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Do you have any evidence at all that actually happened though.

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

Mozi posted:

Do you have any evidence at all that actually happened though.

By the time it actually happens it will be too late, and liberals will insist that the past is the past and we need to move on.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

I'm not sure Colombia or Brazil are even capable of invading Venezuela, even if they wanted to. . .

or at least not if they faced any serious opposition.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

Mozi posted:

Do you have any evidence at all that actually happened though.

No as I am not embedded with the 5000 troops to Colombia

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
the US has had troops in colombia for a long time, it didn't start happening now

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Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Squalid posted:

I'm not sure Colombia or Brazil are even capable of invading Venezuela, even if they wanted to. . .

or at least not if they faced any serious opposition.

They're not capable and at least Brazil is definitely not willing.

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