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Aside from the fact that there's been no information on any significant troop movements to Columbia (Which would be impossible to hide), 5,000 troops is nothing. The invasion of Iraq involved well over a hundred and twenty five thousand American and British troops on the ground, which itself was a woefully inadequate number. I'm not saying that an invasion of Venezuela isn't out of the question (Though I personally think Trump is far too chickenshit to actually sign off on it), but that it would be impossible for it to be "imminent" as many have suggested because there simply hasn't been any real level of military buildup that would be a necessary prelude to invasion.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:35
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RaySmuckles posted:yes, the solution is to make an even bigger humanitarian crisis right next to the first one by bombing/invading their country You are literally a nazi. You care nothing for venezuela only your nazi ideals that US BAD because im anti-imperialist idk what it means but it sounded like a good group Yes the peoppe of venexuela have decided maduro is best because 70% were forced to choose between voting for maduro and getting food to survive the holpcaust or voting against maduro, and starving. Hmm declining food to certain groups to gurantee support... thats fascism. Aka nazism. Wait i know everyone whos starving must be paid by the cia to lose 40 lbs. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 23, 2019 22:37
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RaySmuckles posted:
OK, you're massively wrong then. Or is this some next level "Africa starts at the English channel" racism you're pulling? Cuz it's got nothing to do with how Venezuelans typically see themselves, nor do most of their neighbors.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:41
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Squalid posted:I'm not sure Colombia or Brazil are even capable of invading Venezuela, even if they wanted to. . . Brazil will definitely try if bolsonaro needs a big enough distraction internally.Brazil's SF are brutal and experienced because they recruit a lot from the police death squads, and they were recently deployed in Haiti fighting paramilitary groups.Brazil's army on the other hand is, huh, not good.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:42
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Aside from the fact that there's been no information on any significant troop movements to Columbia (Which would be impossible to hide), 5,000 troops is nothing. The invasion of Iraq involved well over a hundred and twenty five thousand American and British troops on the ground, which itself was a woefully inadequate number. An intervention on Venezuela wouldn't start off with American troops rolling in, but with months of civil war where anti-Maduro elements are supported by a small number of American forces + support from Colombia and Brazil.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:44
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:Brazil will definitely try if bolsonaro needs a big enough distraction internally.Brazil's SF are brutal and experienced because they recruit a lot from the police death squads, and they were recently deployed in Haiti fighting paramilitary groups.Brazil's army on the other hand is, huh, not good. Brazilian military has no interest in this
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Feb 23, 2019 22:47
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:Brazil will definitely try if bolsonaro needs a big enough distraction internally.Brazil's SF are brutal and experienced because they recruit a lot from the police death squads, and they were recently deployed in Haiti fighting paramilitary groups.Brazil's army on the other hand is, huh, not good. I think you should defer to the opinion of actual Brazilians like Negrostrike on the plausibility of this scenario, unless you have a really good reason to believe otherwise. edit: Though I am less sure how far Brazil and Colombia would go to assist the US if it did want to step up military posturing or even a limited intervention. Would Colombia let US planes fly missions out of local airstrips? I don't know how that would play politically. Squalid fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Feb 23, 2019 |
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Feb 23, 2019 22:47
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO calling someone a nazi v good username/post comboSqualid posted:edit: Though I am less sure how far Brazil and Colombia would go to assist the US if it did want to step up military posturing or even a limited intervention. Would Colombia let US planes fly missions out of local airstrips? I don't know how that would play politically. This is why the US has aircraft carriers?
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Feb 23, 2019 22:51
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How tense is the situation between Columbia and Venezuela right now? My girlfriend is currently in Columbia and probably out of harms way, but I'm still a bit nervous given the recent developments.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:58
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Aside from the fact that there's been no information on any significant troop movements to Columbia (Which would be impossible to hide), 5,000 troops is nothing. The invasion of Iraq involved well over a hundred and twenty five thousand American and British troops on the ground, which itself was a woefully inadequate number. Oh please, every intervention short of massed invasions like Iraq started out with just a few thousand troops. In 1961 there were only 3,205 "advisors" in Vietnam.
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Feb 23, 2019 22:59
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She's likely to be fine unless she's by the border right now. I don't see Colombia invading or anything like that.
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Feb 23, 2019 23:01
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COMRADES posted:WAR CRIME GIGOLO calling someone a nazi v good username/post combo Yes, though at the moment none of them are in position to sustain operations against Venezuela. That may change in the future, but is the current status quo. I'm not sure how much that matters though, as I believe there are also US military installations in Puerto Rico. However I think the big military airport in Puerto Rico closed? I'm not sure what kind of support structure would be required for operations against Venezuela. In any case I don't think there is any evidence of immanent military operations.
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Feb 23, 2019 23:14
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Your gf is likely dead and half frozen, devoured by the madurista cannibals who are overrunning the region. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 23, 2019 23:56
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The Colombian authorities provided an update about 20 minutes ago, and have said that 60 National Guard/National Police/Army soldiers defected into the country so far today. This video shows three National Guard soldiers shortly after defecting: https://twitter.com/GabyGabyGG/status/1099435572664377345 EDIT: The crowd is chanting "Valientes! Valientes!" which means "brave", as in, "You were brave to defect".
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Feb 24, 2019 00:12
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1099444470410592258?s=19
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Feb 24, 2019 00:13
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God I hope Brazil doesn't decide to join in on this shitstorm
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Feb 24, 2019 00:17
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these defections are the first thing making me think Maduro's hold might actually be loosening a little Anyone know if the dudes being deployed to the Colombian border are likely to be fairly representative of the Venezuelan military/police, or the schlubs whose commanders were in enough disfavor to get sent to the rear end end of nowhere for a thankless assignment? edit: or alternatively the schlubs who were already mostly there rather than in a more lucrative environment
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Feb 24, 2019 00:27
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GreyjoyBastard posted:these defections are the first thing making me think Maduro's hold might actually be loosening a little I'm a bit hesitant to draw strong conclusions from these defections because probably thousands of Venezuelan soldiers have deserted and emigrated over the last few years. A few individuals leaving the country here or there is just a continuation of that trend. Now if entire formations start abandoning their posts together, that will be interesting. Squalid fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Feb 24, 2019 |
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Feb 24, 2019 00:34
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Squalid posted:I'm a bit hesitant to draw strong conclusions from these defections because probably thousands of Venezuelan soldiers have deserted and emigrated over the last few years. A few individuals leaving the country here or there is just a continuation of that trend. Now if entire formations start abandoning their posts as a together, that will be interesting. yeah you're probably right
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Feb 24, 2019 00:35
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GreyjoyBastard posted:these defections are the first thing making me think Maduro's hold might actually be loosening a little Conceivably borders are lucrative for smuggling reasons. At least in Afghanistan there was that commander the US loved, who controlled the border and was implicated in tons of smuggling.
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Feb 24, 2019 00:35
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freeasinbeer posted:Conceivably borders are lucrative for smuggling reasons. no need to cross the ocean for an example, there's another one much closer to home. meet Manuel Noriega, Great Ally of the United States, 1983-198we finished deposing your neighbors and Bush Senior would prefer his old buddy not embarrass him with any talk of where, exactly, all this cocaine was coming from. Abrams personally interfered with the congressional investigation into Noriega having a journalist Kashoggi'd, on the grounds "he's been such a help to us in the region, and this will just hurt that relationship."
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Feb 24, 2019 00:48
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Reality Winter posted:Your gf is likely dead and half frozen, devoured by the madurista cannibals who are overrunning the region. Shut the gently caress up you dumb gently caress.
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Feb 24, 2019 00:52
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Reality Winter posted:Your gf is likely dead and half frozen, devoured by the madurista cannibals who are overrunning the region. You're a disgusting human being.
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Feb 24, 2019 01:04
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:You're a disgusting human being. I mean random dude parachuting in worried his gf is gonna die in another country deserved to be mocked a bit. Like most likely his gf is way more likely to come home with an STD, from all people she’s loving at the coke fueled orgys, as compared to being caught up in a border skirmish between Columbia and VZ. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 24, 2019 01:17
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I don't know why it bothers me so much that people can't spell Colombia and Guaidó properly.
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Feb 24, 2019 01:23
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Question: Lots of people in this thread appear to be rooting for the military (or police) to turn on Maduro. In fact this seems to be the strategy the US & opposition is taking with offers of amnesty etc. But why is no one considering the possibility of the colectivos armados doing the same? Why aren't they being offered amnesty? What guarantees their loyalty to the PSUV in a way that doesn't apply to the military? And if the people want Maduro gone, why is the military a better representative of the will of the masses than the colectivos?
Bob le Moche fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Feb 24, 2019 |
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Feb 24, 2019 01:29
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Blue Nation posted:I don't know why it bothers me so much that people can't spell Colombia and Guaidó properly. 
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Feb 24, 2019 01:45
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Bob le Moche posted:Question: Lots of people in this thread appear to be rooting for the military (or police) to turn on Maduro. In fact this seems to be the strategy the US & opposition is taking with offers of amnesty etc. But why is no one considering the possibility of the colectivos armados doing the same? Why aren't they being offered amnesty? What guarantees their loyalty to the PSUV in a way that doesn't apply to the military? And if the people want Maduro gone, why is the military a better representative of the will of the masses than the colectivos? The Amnesty Law as is currently worded offers amnesty to "all civil and military officials" who "collaborate" with restoring democratic order in Venezuela. It doesn't discriminate at all among branches or organizations, so it includes colectivo armado members.
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Feb 24, 2019 01:48
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Blue Nation posted:I don't know why it bothers me so much that people can't spell Colombia and Guaidó properly. i can't be assed to figure out the unicode for o'  Bob le Moche posted:Question: Lots of people in this thread appear to be rooting for the military (or police) to turn on Maduro. In fact this seems to be the strategy the US & opposition is taking with offers of amnesty etc. But why is no one considering the possibility of the colectivos armados doing the same? Why aren't they being offered amnesty? What guarantees their loyalty to the PSUV in a way that doesn't apply to the military? And if the people want Maduro gone, why is the military a better representative of the will of the masses than the colectivos? aren't they being offered amnesty? i genuinely don't know (and wouldn't entirely trust the specific wording of the amnesty as filtered through google translate, so I can't readily look it up for myself), but i'd assume they're in the same amnesty situation as the military, right down to the handling of their nonpolitical crimes, because it's not like the military doesn't also engage in a certain amount of robbery, extortion, and murder, although maybe not kidnapping as such the military's not important because it's a representation of the will of the masses (the heck?), it's important because it by definition outguns anyone else in the country but if the opposition doesn't have a plan to get the colectivos onboard / not actively hostile, it's gonna get real messy, yeah; personally that's actually my bet for most likely / least unlikely "lots of people get killed in the short to medium term after Maduro loses power" scenario, and I hope the Formerly MUD is thinking about how to avert that peacefully Chuck Boone posted:The Amnesty Law as is currently worded offers amnesty to "all civil and military officials" who "collaborate" with restoring democratic order in Venezuela. It doesn't discriminate at all among branches or organizations, so it includes colectivo armado members. hooray! edit: on another, pedantic note i obviously still am not entirely happy with "the opposition" as the primary term, but it's better than "Guaido" (who isn't and shouldn't be the only important person) and probably more accurate than the MUD-related phrases I've been trying out Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Feb 24, 2019 |
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Feb 24, 2019 01:51
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GreyjoyBastard posted:aren't they being offered amnesty? Chuck Boone posted:The Amnesty Law as is currently worded offers amnesty to "all civil and military officials" who "collaborate" with restoring democratic order in Venezuela. It doesn't discriminate at all among branches or organizations, so it includes colectivo armado members. GreyjoyBastard posted:the military's not important because it's a representation of the will of the masses (the heck?), it's important because it by definition outguns anyone else in the country Bob le Moche fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Feb 24, 2019 |
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Feb 24, 2019 02:01
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Bob le Moche posted:Seems I assumed wrongly, the offer of Amnesty applies to to the colectivos as well. I'm still curious how likely you think it is that there will be colectivo defections, and why. i have absolutely no idea how likely it is and defer to the venezuelans and even bigger nerds in the thread i just know that last possibility is very bad and to be avoided
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Feb 24, 2019 02:06
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Bob le Moche posted:Seems I assumed wrongly, the offer of Amnesty applies to to the colectivos as well. I'm still curious how likely you think it is that there will be colectivo defections, and why. I think that the general perception is that the colectivos will be the last to abandon Maduro because they are either die-hards who are beyond help, or mercenaries who will do their thing as long as the government is paying them. This is opposed to the general perception of the army, which I think sees rank-and-file soldiers as ordinary Venezuelans who suffer just as much as anyone else, but who just happen to be in uniform. This make it much easier to appeal to soldiers than to colectivo members. In other words, I think that people generally see colectivo members as too far gone, while soldiers might still listen to reason. I don't think that there are enough colectivos around to launch an insurgency on a national level. I suspect that in a post-Maduro scenario, colectivo members would just try to melt into the general population and hope that no one notices.
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Feb 24, 2019 02:11
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freeasinbeer posted:I mean random dude parachuting in worried his gf is gonna die in another country deserved to be mocked a bit. First of yeah, it's a bit cynical to ask for my ~tourist~ (it's actually a work related thing) GF in a a thread about a country with real people suffering right now. I simply figured that people posting here have a much more real perception of the situation as the media I read. I hope it's obvious that I didn't intend to make that a mandatory story here. I sincerely hope for the best of all people that have to deal with this poo poo and hopefully won't come to harm. Second: gently caress you you little dumb poo poo for writing these words about a great human being you never met. loving rear end in a top hat.
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Feb 24, 2019 02:29
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haldolium posted:First of yeah, it's a bit cynical to ask for my ~tourist~ (it's actually a work related thing) GF in a a thread about a country with real people suffering right now. I simply figured that people posting here have a much more real perception of the situation as the media I read. I hope it's obvious that I didn't intend to make that a mandatory story here. I sincerely hope for the best of all people that have to deal with this poo poo and hopefully won't come to harm. What would you have done if people said she's not going to be ok but sincerely The second part though lol
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Feb 24, 2019 02:41
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In terms of strategic position, I'm not sure getting the colectivos armado to defect would advance the oppositions position very much. Guaido is not trying to start a civil war, he's trying to assert his control over the apparatus of the Venezuelan state. If the army were to switch sides the first thing they would do would be to occupy and secure government offices and ministries, forcefully removing PSUV leaders and allowing the National Assembly to start organizing elections and issuing legislation. The formal chain of command would allow the military to execute a coup of this kind quickly and efficiently. Guaido couldn't do this with a bunch of colectivos. They might be equipped to handle crowd control, but they can't go toe-to-toe against the Venezuelan army. They're not going to be able to seize and occupy tv stations or courthouses in the face of military opposition. Nor do they have the kind of complex hierarchies and organizational structure that allow militaries to surprise opponents with coordinated nation-wide operations How likely they are to accept the results of a military coup, or to take up arms and fight an urban insurgency, I don't know. The odds of that depend on how popular you think Maduro still is, which nobody can agree on itt. Squalid fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Feb 24, 2019 |
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Feb 24, 2019 02:48
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The CIA "coup" already failed. Look at how messy this poo poo is. Guaido will probably be assassinated soon. Bolton has to invade, poor man  All he wants is food and shelter for ordinary cute (white) Venezuelan babies
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Feb 24, 2019 02:55
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https://twitter.com/comradekelley/status/1099435844400807943?s=20
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Feb 24, 2019 03:03
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the preferred outcome of "Maduro / the PSUV hold a fair-ish presidential election and disband the Constituent Assembly or hold a fair election for that too" is still a possibility it'll just take time to see whether it happens or falls through, which would really suck even in a no-new-US-sanctions atmosphere 
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Feb 24, 2019 03:04
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that account is painfully cringe
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Feb 24, 2019 03:07
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Bullfrog posted:that account is painfully cringe It's a US gov parroting bot that targets shitters like dnd posters. They're gonna fuckin eat that poo poo up here
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Feb 24, 2019 03:09
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