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https://twitter.com/StratSentinel/status/1100217825229185024
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Feb 26, 2019 03:46
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 that sounds. . . bad. Not that Pakistan doesn't deserve to suffer retaliation for these kinds of stunts, but there's a lot of potential for escalation here.
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Feb 26, 2019 03:56
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Squalid posted:
To what extent was Pakistan involved in the recent attack? The situation in kashmir has deterioriated a lot under India's current government and homegrown anger in Kashmir probably doesn't even need Pak support anymore
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Feb 26, 2019 04:02
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mila kunis posted:To what extent was Pakistan involved in the recent attack? The situation in kashmir has deterioriated a lot under India's current government and homegrown anger in Kashmir probably doesn't even need Pak support anymore Well I admit my knowledge of this is pretty shallow, but this is what the Washington Post has to say: https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...m=.e101f3bf846b quote:An Islamist terrorist group, Jaish-e-Muhammad — based in Pakistan though nominally banned by the Pakistani government — reportedly took credit for the attack. I'm not sure just how much information on the Jaish-e-Muhammad and their relationship to the Pakistani government is available, but certainly given Pakistan's history I'd be extremely skeptical of Pakistani claims to being totally uninvolved. I'd at least expect to see evidence Pakistan was serious about investigating and cracking down on these kinds of groups. Not that revenge is worth risking a nuclear war, wtf.
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Feb 26, 2019 04:19
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https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100207947022565377?s=19 https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100231826348617728?s=19 As per tweets Pakistani sources are saying Indian jets turned away without hitting anything. Indian officials have no comment. Balakot, the town allegedly targeted is in Pakistan proper, and not Pakistan Kashmir. It is way past the Line of Control. It's a huge escalation if true.
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Feb 26, 2019 04:26
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https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1100230509710491649
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Feb 26, 2019 04:39
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Fortunately, both sides have nukes to prevent any further escalation. 
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Feb 26, 2019 05:11
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https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/sta...ingawful.com%2F We did it America!
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Feb 26, 2019 06:46
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/WSJPolitics/sta...ingawful.com%2F Is this dood actually in or headed to Afghanistan?
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Feb 26, 2019 06:58
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Rip Testes posted:Is this dood actually in or headed to Afghanistan? Nope hes at parris island
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Feb 26, 2019 06:59
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What are the paths of escalation with the current situation between Pakistan and India. I will admit I have no sense of knowledge about the Kashmir conflict other than several wars were fought over the contested area. How did those conflicts originate and how does a terror bombing take the countries back to an actual shooting war where possible nuclear release really becomes a possibility? It is just poor retaliatory decisions? From what little I gather episodic violence in the area is not that uncommon, but now we have India wanting to suddenly build a dam and is dropping bombs. Why this level of escalation and how does it potentially evolve?
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Feb 26, 2019 07:03
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Quoting from another forum:quote:In-between a scale of one to ten, this incident is a 3. India and Pakistan are no strangers to shooting at each other. It's been a while since they've used aircraft to do it, but it's very unlikely to escalate to exchange of nuclear weapons. It might lead to a limited war, but I doubt it, most likely that Pakistan will strike back, perhaps with artillery or a cruise missile, and India will retaliate, there will be tit for tat for a while and then things will calm back down to the usual exchanges of lead along the LOC.
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Feb 26, 2019 08:00
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We're gonna need a bigger thread.
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Feb 26, 2019 08:11
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Official Indian government statement
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Feb 26, 2019 08:18
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A full dozen Mirage 2000Hs from India's No. 7 Squadron supported by ELINT aircraft crossed into Pakistani airspace looking to strike JeM camps, timed with heavy shelling once they reached their target area. The closest targets were bombed and shelled, then it looks like their final target might've been a C&C camp further into Pakistani territory, but scrambled JF-17 Interceptors forced a turn-dump-burn abort. Both sides have put their air defenses in full readiness in case of further action, and Pak HQ is making noises like it might throw a token response back to satisfy hardliners, but it doesn't look (at least for now) that the Pakistanis are committing to a major counter-response. The fairly low chances of further escalation come down to the nuances of the attack. The head of the Indian High Command said about 24 hours ago that the retaliation for the Pulwama attacks would be in the next 48, so Pak HQ knew the Indians were coming, there was no surprise there. They specifically chose fast, multi-role fighters to deliver an in-and-out precision strike. If the Indians wanted to seriously gently caress poo poo up along the LoC, the Mirage 2000s would've been on air-air duty, and they would've fielded MiG-27 ground attack craft. The Indian artillery response consisted of only tube artillery, and none of their considerable MRLS assets. Both of these signal it was a limited, focused response from India, but also signals that they have further conventional escalation measures available if need be. Additionally, the diplomatic approach to the strike was fairly clever as well: the Pakistani government can't acknowledge they knew the location or operational capacity of the camps that got hit without undercutting Khan's statement from a couple days ago where he said if the Indians gave him actionable intelligence on JeM encampments then the Pak military would hit them. So either they sit on their hands or walk into a diplomatic quagmire that basically admits a wing of their government OK'd the strike. That said, both sides are now going to proceed to lie through their loving teeth, pressuring the other to issue further lies, and turn the entire PR/diplomatic situation into one giant pissing contest.
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Feb 26, 2019 08:38
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Here is some 15 year old HUMINT that mentions a JEM base in Balakot. https://wikileaks.org/gitmo/pdf/pk/us9pk-000301dp.pdf Good thing we're using all that actionable Intel from Guantanamo in a timely fashion.
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Feb 26, 2019 09:50
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Conspiratiorist posted:The closest targets were bombed and shelled, then it looks like their final target might've been a C&C camp further into Pakistani territory, but scrambled JF-17 Interceptors forced a turn-dump-burn abort. Where did details like this come from?
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Feb 26, 2019 11:38
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Count Roland posted:Where did details like this come from? Conflict trackers + inference + what each side is saying (lies will contain truths). IE based on everything presented so far, the Indians are truthful in claiming they hit three targets, and thoroughly wiped two of them, and for all their denying the Pakistanis are probably truthful in that they forced the Indians to turn away and dump payloads - meaning there was at least a 4th target deeper past the LoC that the Indians were hoping to hit as well, relying on the Mirage 2000 acceleration characteristics, but hosed up the math and the Pak JF-17s caught up with them. Naturally there's a ton of guesswork involved here, and details may need revising, but that's what collating observer reports gets you.
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Feb 26, 2019 12:13
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/26/pakistan-india-jets-breached-ceasefire-line-kashmir-bomb Pakistan's response of downplaying the Indian incursion can be thought to mean they don't want to escalate. It's easier to save face without taking military action if you claim you forced the enemy to turn back and that they couldn't cause any damage except a few uprooted trees in the wilderness. Then there's nothing worth reprising against.
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Feb 26, 2019 13:01
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also probably helps if thats what actually happened too. There really isn't any motive for Pakistan to seek escalation either, this was after all our hero Modi's internal politics that made this strike happen. So Pakistan is basically holding out its tongue and going *pläpläpläpläplä*
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Feb 26, 2019 13:14
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Good if it ends here, but it seems the same cycle will just continue to repeat over and over. Hopefully something else changes for the better before then.
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Feb 26, 2019 14:11
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What's the best English-language news channel or newspaper in India? Or actual experts that aren't going to repeat the same thing for hours on end? Watching some live India Times and NDTV on YouTube and the latter seems slightly less sensationalist/hypernationalist than the former, but still leaves a lot to be desired.
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Feb 26, 2019 14:23
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OhFunny posted:Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister, resigned rather abruptly today. Supposedly he was excluded from the meeting with Assad in Tehran, got offended about it, and resigned in a huff despite efforts to convince him it wasn't an intentional slight.
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Feb 26, 2019 15:15
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Cugel the Clever posted:What's the best English-language news channel or newspaper in India? Or actual experts that aren't going to repeat the same thing for hours on end? Watching some live India Times and NDTV on YouTube and the latter seems slightly less sensationalist/hypernationalist than the former, but still leaves a lot to be desired. from another forum: quote:lolz good luck with that. only good media in india is regional but they are in their own language and mostly cover the local news.
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Feb 26, 2019 16:15
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Artillery fire is being reported in Kashmir. (WE NEED A SEPARATE THREAD ASAP)
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Feb 26, 2019 17:02
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Grouchio posted:Artillery fire is being reported in Kashmir. Sporadic artillery skirmishes have been going on for a while.
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Feb 26, 2019 17:04
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Bloombergquint is pretty good for english Indian coverage. They mostly cover business and markets but also cover important other developments including this conflict. They recently started paywalling everything though so that sucks.
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Feb 26, 2019 18:34
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Conspiratiorist posted:Sporadic artillery skirmishes have been going on for a while. Yeah, that is pretty normal for the region. It is getting a little too hot though today..a lot of small arms fire too. https://twitter.com/ZaidZamanHamid/status/1100448199804899329
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Feb 26, 2019 19:20
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/indian-shelling-kills-civilians-pakistan-administered-kashmir-190226190841703.htmlquote:An Indian mortar shell hit a house in Nakyal sector along the Line of Control that killed a mother, daughter and son," local disaster management authority official Shariq Tariq told AFP news agency.
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Feb 26, 2019 22:55
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/iran-rouhani-rejects-top-diplomat-zarif-resignation-190226152426950.html Double posting. Rouhani rejected Zarif's resignation as foreign minister.
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Feb 27, 2019 00:37
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Brown Moses posted:We're gonna need a bigger thread. It's apropos, in a historical sense, that what ten years ago was "the iraq thread" is now referencing everything from unrest to outright warfare in a vague area stretching as far west as Morocco, as far south as Sudan, and as far east as China's Xinjiang province.
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Feb 27, 2019 01:11
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Really hoping cooler heads prevail in I/p (not that one) Loiks like Indian fighter jets have been downed and a pilot captured. Cant wait to see the poo poo show of them parading him on al jazeera
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Feb 27, 2019 08:17
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Really hoping cooler heads prevail in I/p (not that one) There's already one video circulating with civilians dancing and cheering near the body of a burnt pilot in a crashed Indian plane.
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Feb 27, 2019 08:21
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Anarkii posted:There's already one video circulating with civilians dancing and cheering near the body of a burnt pilot in a crashed Indian plane. There's also one showing a training accident from four years ago as happening a couple hours ago. It might have been the one you saw! Fake social media poo poo is going to be insane everywhere for a hot minute, probably. Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 08:54 on Feb 27, 2019 |
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Feb 27, 2019 08:50
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https://twitter.com/AirportPakistan/status/1100668226386649089?s=19 fyi in case anyone was planning on flying through Pak airspace
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Feb 27, 2019 09:17
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FAUXTON posted:https://twitter.com/AirportPakistan/status/1100668226386649089?s=19 "Wikipedia article on NOTAM's posted:- The first line contains NOTAM identification (series, sequence number, and year of issue), the type of operation (NEW, REPLACE, or CANCEL), as well as a reference to a previously-issued NOTAM (for NOTAMR and NOTAMC only).
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Feb 27, 2019 11:32
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welp, either the nukes will fly at the end of the week...or they won't, in which case this whole thing will de-escalate back into your usual shouting match.
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Feb 27, 2019 11:55
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I had a look at some newspapers from the region today. The Indian papers were all: "BRAVE AND NOBLE INDIAN AIRFORCE DOWNS DASTARDLY PAKISTANI INTERLOPERS and they're also claiming to have shot down one of ours, the big fat liars". The Pakistani papers were exactly the same, except with the nationalities reversed.
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Feb 27, 2019 12:31
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India's acknowledging that they lost a plane now. This reminds me of Khrushchev's private correspondence with Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis: https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1100728187762335749 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Feb 27, 2019 |
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Feb 27, 2019 13:57
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Does that count as a call for peace, or as an explicit nuclear threat?
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Feb 27, 2019 15:25
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