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Does China have an opinion on the skirmishes? I'm under the impression they are Pakistan aligned somewhat, have nuclear arms themselves and are also India's neighbor of which i'm not sure the relationship there. A total aside, but somehow I never realized how when North Korea is thrown in the geographic mix there's a contiguous chain of four bordering nuclear armed nations.
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Feb 27, 2019 15:39
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Conspiratiorist posted:Does that count as a call for peace, or as an explicit nuclear threat? Why not both? Rip Testes posted:Does China have an opinion on the skirmishes? I'm under the impression they are Pakistan aligned somewhat, have nuclear arms themselves and are also India's neighbor of which i'm not sure the relationship there. Last I saw, China made some general noises about calling for peace which people were saying was surprisingly even handed, giving the impression that right now they value stability over winning points by siding with Pakistan in the conflict.
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Feb 27, 2019 16:04
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The last thing China wants is Pakistan and India messing up its Silk Road project by escalating tensions.
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Feb 27, 2019 17:10
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Sinteres posted:Last I saw, China made some general noises about calling for peace which people were saying was surprisingly even handed, giving the impression that right now they value stability over winning points by siding with Pakistan in the conflict. China's not interested in a regional war with India while its military is in its current orientation; it can't both fight a war and maintain its hegemony or economic goals, and has too many diplomatic applecarts to upset at the moment. Same goes for Pakistan, with whom they have a Baluchi insurgency to crush and a region to gut and fund the construction of their militaries for the upcoming actual conflict with India a couple years down the road, when the wings have fallen off the old Indian MiGs and the US might not be as chummy with Modi. Every side here knows a war is coming, but nobody wants it right now.
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Feb 27, 2019 17:12
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Conspiratiorist posted:Every side here knows a war is coming, but nobody wants it right now. Lol I guess on the bright side the ensuing nuclear winter will give the west more time to get climate change efforts going
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Feb 27, 2019 17:36
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Feldegast42 posted:Lol I guess on the bright side the ensuing nuclear winter will give the west more time to get climate change efforts going 
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Feb 27, 2019 17:39
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mostly worried about modi here tbh
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Feb 27, 2019 17:46
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Yeah - with elections so close, and Pakistan having shot down two jets in response, killing 4 and taking a hostage - can Modi really engage in peaceful dialogue at this point? Or would he feel compelled to take another response... Not to mention the possibility it could escalate further just across the LoC without direct orders.
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Feb 27, 2019 17:49
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There's been only two confirmed aircraft losses in India since this kerfuffle started -- one MiG-21, shot down by Pakistan, pilot ejected alive but was captured, and one Mi-17, apparently crashed on its own, killing its crew. Pakistan officially denied any involvement in the helicopter crash while India officially blamed it on a technical issue, so if they are on agreement on that point it's probably true. On the other side, India claimed to have shot down a Pakistani drone and that the unlucky MiG-21 had managed to shoot down a Pakistani F-16 before getting itself shot down. Wreckage of the drone was shown, but not of the F-16.
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Feb 27, 2019 19:06
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Neither India nor Pakistan stands to gain anything from this situation escalating beyond the normal idiotic sabre-rattling, so it won't: chill out everyone! If this does in fact develop into nuclear war, feel free to toxx me: it'll be a welcome distraction from the bigger problems I'll be experiencing at that point.
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Feb 27, 2019 20:41
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Then what were those reports from DEFCON and others on twitter that mass mortar strikes and naval movements were occuring?
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Feb 27, 2019 20:43
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Grouchio posted:Then what were those reports from DEFCON and others on twitter that mass mortar strikes and naval movements were occuring? SNAFU
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Feb 27, 2019 21:02
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Pistol_Pete posted:Neither India nor Pakistan stands to gain anything from this situation escalating beyond the normal idiotic sabre-rattling, so it won't: chill out everyone! P much this. I mean we're not even at Kargil levels yet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War
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Feb 27, 2019 21:34
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I find it unlikely that a Mig-21 managed to shoot down an F-16. Although Pakistan is extremely incompetent.
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Feb 27, 2019 22:27
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I mean a cessna with a modern AA missile and proper support could down pretty much anything. Technical dogfighting specifications and poo poo are 100% a thing of the past, wrt to combat, planes are literally just missile/bomb platforms in 99.9% of cases.
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Feb 28, 2019 01:07
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Frond posted:I find it unlikely that a Mig-21 managed to shoot down an F-16. Although Pakistan is extremely incompetent. If Ace Combat has taught me one thing, it's that a Fishbed with gun-pods can take down drat near anything.
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Feb 28, 2019 01:24
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Indian mig-21 have late 90s radars and missiles
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Feb 28, 2019 01:26
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I mean a cessna with a modern AA missile and proper support could down pretty much anything. No.
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Feb 28, 2019 01:29
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Willie Tomg posted:It's apropos, in a historical sense, that what ten years ago was "the iraq thread" is now referencing everything from unrest to outright warfare in a vague area stretching as far west as Morocco, as far south as Sudan, and as far east as China's Xinjiang province. Should just drop Middle East from the thread title at this point.
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Feb 28, 2019 06:10
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The Vaguely Eastern Thread of Eternal Despair
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Feb 28, 2019 06:12
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The Eurasian thread of eternal despair?
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Feb 28, 2019 06:24
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Might as well just call it non-euro-american politics thread at this point
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Feb 28, 2019 08:03
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/27/worse-than-mubarak/ Goes into detail about Sisi's constitutional amendments, and how much more he is sinking into this hole compared to Mubarak.
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Feb 28, 2019 10:12
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OhFunny posted:Should just drop Middle East from the thread title at this point. Drop just the "Middle", and we are good.
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Feb 28, 2019 10:28
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"Eastasia has always been at war"
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Feb 28, 2019 12:12
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OhFunny posted:Should just drop Middle East from the thread title at this point. "Middle East" has always been a euphemism for "Muslim." Anyway, Pakistan should've been bombed back to the stone age in the early 2000s because of their sponsorship of international terrorism
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Feb 28, 2019 14:33
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Pakistan released the Indian pilot they shot down as a sign of peace. We now tune in to India for what surely will be a grateful response in which they all make friends a- https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1101121551762681857 Oh, or now we include the ocean. Why not.
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Feb 28, 2019 15:09
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India should be grateful that Pakistani proxies only occasionally suicide bomb them!!!
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Feb 28, 2019 15:11
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No... but war is not good for anybody.
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Feb 28, 2019 15:20
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Mozi posted:No... but war is not good for anybody. It's not, but as a tweet I posted in the I/P thread says, India's basically lost if the conflict ends here, which (at least in theory) makes it harder for them to credibly deter future attacks. That doesn't mean they can't or shouldn't let it end here, because escalation has risks for everyone, including that India might just continue losing, but they at least have to make angry noises so the people back home don't realize they were just humiliated by their smaller neighbor. That same dynamic is probably why Pakistan's trying to be conciliatory now. They have an incentive to quit while they're ahead, in addition to the usual not wanting things to escalate beyond control stuff. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Feb 28, 2019 |
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Feb 28, 2019 15:40
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In other words they might be still open to de-escalation (behind closed doors), but have to absolutely make sure they don't make that public. Reminds me of the private turkish base deal during the missile crisis.
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Feb 28, 2019 15:44
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Both countries had military fights with each other even after both of them acquired nuclear weapons. It could be different this time, but there is some reason to believe they will not resort to using nukes over this isdue.
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Feb 28, 2019 15:55
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Torrannor posted:Both countries had military fights with each other even after both of them acquired nuclear weapons. It could be different this time, but there is some reason to believe they will not resort to using nukes over this isdue. Nobody's predicting nukes are going to fly, but obviously the more caution shown by India and Pakistan when it comes to measures beneath that threshold, the safer everyone is. Complacency in the 'well nukes haven't been used yet, so this is fine' sense is the kind of thing that could inadvertently lead to dramatic escalation in a future conflict.
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Feb 28, 2019 16:03
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As long as it stays about Kashmir they can 100% get into a hot war without launching nukes. If one side attempts to turn it into conquering the home territories of the other after winning Kashmir, or makes serious incursions into home territory from the sea or something, then nukes get involved. And the login of "no one has anything to gain" has not prevented many, many, wars
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Feb 28, 2019 16:30
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India needs to step up its proxy game is really the lesson learned from the past three decades of South Asian conflict and war
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Feb 28, 2019 16:56
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svenkatesh posted:India needs to step up its proxy game is really the lesson learned from the past three decades of South Asian conflict and war
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Feb 28, 2019 16:57
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Grouchio posted:Again, which is why Kashmir should just become a buffer state already. This makes sense in theory but it won't work in practice. India, Pakistan and to a lesser extent China will make an independent Kashmir into a client state because of resources (chiefly water). There's also the fact that Kashmir is staging ground for extremist groups that operate in Xinjiang, the CIS, Pakistan, and India Both J&K are cost centers for Pakistan and India. An independent Kashmir would be reliant on foreign aid to the extent that it would basically be a failed state. E: finalizing the LOC as an international border would be better, but that's basically an L for India and would play poorly to the Pakistani citizenry svenkatesh fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Feb 28, 2019 |
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Feb 28, 2019 17:06
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svenkatesh posted:India needs to step up its proxy game is really the lesson learned from the past three decades of South Asian conflict and war I read recently that India is adding an entire Pakistan's worth of GDP growth every year. Getting into a major war is a losing strategy compared to just continuing to grow.
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Feb 28, 2019 17:31
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Mozi posted:I read recently that India is adding an entire Pakistan's worth of GDP growth every year. Getting into a major war is a losing strategy compared to just continuing to grow. Wars are not entirely rational decisions based on logic
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Feb 28, 2019 17:57
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That GDP growth will end if radical Islamic terrorism runs rampant in India. The threat of getting aloha snackbarred by Ahmed will mean businesses won't want to set up shop It's the same reason that Pakistan needs to ask for handouts every few years (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2019 18:00
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