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Darth Walrus posted:The question is how much capacity Abrams and company actually have to make things worse, given that Maduro's government has spent years frantically decoupling the country's economy from the pockets of the public, blocking any opportunity for the citizenry to feed themselves, and going 'I will hurt you if you try to make this my problem' over national health emergencies. do yourself a quick favor and google what the Salvador Option is. you will have your answer. pretty elegant solution to the problem of famine and the locals not liking the new bosses all rolled into one! there's a couple of side effects down the road- notably, our good friends in ISIS- but those are problems for the NEXT administration. in America, the only country that matters from the perspective of the Salvador Option.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:19
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Darth Walrus posted:The question is how much capacity Abrams and company actually have to make things worse, given that Maduro's government has spent years frantically decoupling the country's economy from the pockets of the public, blocking any opportunity for the citizenry to feed themselves, and going 'I will hurt you if you try to make this my problem' over national health emergencies. I dunno, lets ask the people of Iraq and Libya for a start how much worse the US can make things.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:21
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Tom Guycot posted:I dunno, lets ask the people of Iraq and Libya for a start how much worse the US can make things. Iraq and Libya were much better led.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:27
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Rust Martialis posted:Iraq and Libya were much better led. in Libya, there was an actual popular revolt against a hated leader. there was an army. there were battle lines. the rebels held territory, and were capable of fighting. this was a large part of the reason why the patron saint of Smart Liberal Interventions (tm) signed on! all that needed to happen was for an extant side to be given the little push they needed to end up on top of the power struggle. not a single US soldier needed to dirty his boots with that ugly foreign soil. Guaido certainly sold our intervention in Venezuela of being something of comparable ease, but, well. been more than a month now, and all those people he was expecting to die to put Juan Guaido in the big seat have curiously failed to materialize. unlike Saddam or Gadaffi, Maduro has actually managed to keep his country in one piece while the US makes it publicly known it will be backing all comers against the latest guy on our poo poo list. pretty impressive accomplishment, to be honest. though to be fair the failed 2002 coup is probably casting an appreciable shadow over the proceedings. once a populace is aware America doesn't -always- win these they end up a little gun-shy about the traditional Abrams "you can either be on the delivering or the receiving end of the sledgehammer" PR push.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:38
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Rust Martialis posted:Guaido *is* the legitimate and constitutional head of the government of Venezuela at this point until the NEC arranges new Presidential elections. I understand a number of other countries have recognized this new state of affairs. The vast majority of the world's population still recognizes Maduro as the legitimate leader. The imperialist white countries in europe and the anglosphere are about the only ones that recognize guaido.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:41
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countries who've been on the receiving end of colonial whoop-rear end are obviously biased, not to be trusted and just haven't read the op.
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Mar 6, 2019 06:46
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:The vast majority of the world's population still recognizes Maduro as the legitimate leader. The imperialist white countries in europe and the anglosphere are about the only ones that recognize guaido. Not quite sure the relevance of population, but whatever. Not quite sure about skipping Russia as an imperialist white European country, but whatever. Not quite sure about you ignoring the various South or Central American countries that recognize Guaido, but whatever. The fact that the US, EU, and neighboring countries recognize Guaido probably will impact the course of future events more than Russia, which has a GDP on par with Canada. China will support whomever guarantees their investment anyhow and will quite happily toss Maduro under his bus.
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Mar 6, 2019 07:08
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Ok let''s all be honest, "legitimacy" is a grossly overrated quality for one's leaders to have. I might even go as far to say that an obsession with legitimacy is far more concerned with something as ephemeral as "decorum" than the actual material conditions on the ground.
A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Mar 6, 2019 |
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Mar 6, 2019 07:30
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:The vast majority of the world's population still recognizes Maduro as the legitimate leader. The imperialist white countries in europe and the anglosphere are about the only ones that recognize guaido. Huh, I didn't know south and central America were now filled with white countries. A big flaming stink posted:Ok let''s all be honest, "legitimacy" is a grossly overrated overrated quality for one's leaders to have. I might even go as far to say that an obsession with legitimacy is far more concerned with something as ephemeral as "decorum" than the actual material conditions on the ground. Ok, lets go over all the laws and parts of the constitution Maduro's government violated in the process of neutering the national assembly. Legitimacy is not an ephemeral thing here, it was pretty clearly lost via blatant, publicly available violations of the law and constitution by maduro.
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Mar 6, 2019 07:41
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A big flaming stink posted:Ok let''s all be honest, "legitimacy" is a grossly overrated overrated quality for one's leaders to have. I might even go as far to say that an obsession with legitimacy is far more concerned with something as ephemeral as "decorum" than the actual material conditions on the ground. Except that being generally viewed as the "legitimate" government has real-world effects, like being given control of external state-owned assets like embassies, bank accounts, etc. Once the National Assembly duly declared that the presidency was, in effect, abandoned, Guaido automatically became interim head of state pending new elections (which the NEC has predictably not moved to hold).
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Mar 6, 2019 07:46
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Darth Walrus posted:The question is how much capacity Abrams and company actually have to make things worse, given that Maduro's government has spent years frantically decoupling the country's economy from the pockets of the public, blocking any opportunity for the citizenry to feed themselves, and going 'I will hurt you if you try to make this my problem' over national health emergencies. as others have noted, a lot. part of your shtick is pretending maduro has made venezuela hell on earth, but it can get worse and places that the US has intervened in in living memory (with arguably better intentions) have turned out much worse than venezuela currently is quote:As for your implication that the opposition is perfectly safe, did you forget about how Guiado literally had two of his senior aides poisoned a couple of weeks back, one fatally? in another country. are you going to say columbia needs intervention now, or that this was maduro's doing? Rust Martialis posted:Iraq and Libya were much better led. and both turned into clusterfucks much worse than the situation venezuela currently is in. and venezuela's situation could be improved if the US ended the deleterious sanctions its implemented to try to force regime change and the money that has been "confiscated" from the venezuelan government was returned
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Mar 6, 2019 10:20
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Rust Martialis posted:Not quite sure the relevance of population, but whatever. Not quite sure about skipping Russia as an imperialist white European country, but whatever. Not quite sure about you ignoring the various South or Central American countries that recognize Guaido, but whatever. I'm not just talking about the usual liberal boogeymen of China AND Russia, the entire African Union is against guaido. Why do privileged white first worlders on this forum think they know better than the African Union?
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Mar 6, 2019 14:30
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I'm not just talking about the usual liberal boogeymen of China AND Russia, the entire African Union is against guaido. Why do privileged white first worlders on this forum think they know better than the African Union?
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Mar 6, 2019 14:35
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Randarkman posted:It's frightening really how this sort of thing seems to become normalized for people who have just gotten so used to violence being a part of their lives. I saw a documentary some years back where someone was in a slum area in South Africa (it may have been the Louis Theroux episode where he spent time with South African private security companies which were popping up left and right back then and making a killing, and probably still are) and he was talking to a local woman who was angrily, but matter of factly telling him about how a had mob (which she might have been part of from how she was talking about it IIRC) apprehended a suspected thief and burned him to death. Yeah, this really is a fascinating facet of this whole thing. What happens to the security services in a post-Maduro Venezuela is going to be key in the reconstruction of the country. I suppose that at the national-level policing bodies (like the SEBIN and the National Bolivarian Police), we'll have to wait and see how far the opposition is willing to take its amnesty law. Will the people running these services really be granted amnesty? If so, would they be allowed to continue in their positions? What if these people were directly responsible for human rights violations, including extrajudicial murders and torture? Venezuela also has a lot of municipal police forces. As far as I'm aware they're terribly under-equipped and under-trained. I suspect that at this level, we'd worry about more ordinary police corruption than systemic rights violations related to regime repression of dissent. In any case, you'd still be looking at rebuilding an entire police system if you hope to have a chance at improving conditions for people in Venezuela. More on the topic of lynching and "street justice", I can recommend a book called "Twilight Policing" by an academic called Tessa Diphoorn. It's about private security firms in South Africa that operate as police. Diphoorn's field work is fascinating, so the book is a pretty good read. EDIT: I just read this  story from Bloomberg: a group of 200 "heavily armed" exiled soldiers living in Colombia had a plan to punch open a hole in the Venezuelan border on February 23 to let the aid in, but the plan "was stopped by the Colombian government, which learned of it late and feared violent clashes..."EDIT 2: Back in late January a couple of videos surfaced allegedly showing groups of exiled Venezuelan soldiers in Colombia and Peru swearing allegiance to Guaido and condemning Maduro. This is one of those videos, which was allegedly filmed in Colombia: https://twitter.com/oscarcontrera/status/1087518869873479681 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Mar 6, 2019 |
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Mar 6, 2019 15:02
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I'm not just talking about the usual liberal boogeymen of China AND Russia, the entire African Union is against guaido. Why do privileged white first worlders on this forum think they know better than the African Union? Cite for AU claim please, from the AU obviously.
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Mar 6, 2019 15:21
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Rust Martialis posted:Cite for AU claim please, from the AU obviously. I looked for this a while back, there's no AU statement, only a fabricated story by Sputnik that got picked up and spread by a mix of Useful Idiots and fake news manufacturers. Some African countries support Maduro (e.g. South Africa) but there's definitely no consensus, and I think most African countries don't give a poo poo about Venezuela since they have zero connections whatsoever to the country. E: Actually here's a map: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/06/maduro-vs-guaido-a-global-scorecard-map-infographic/ it looks like it is indeed only South Africa who supports Maduro, and only Morocco that has come out against. But really please stop engaging with CLB, it's irritating to have to skim his posts because you can't stop quoting them. You should take note of the quote about mud wrestling with pigs. lol at stories like this: https://orinocotribune.com/african-union-expresses-its-support-to-president-nicolas-maduro "In this context, demonstrations in favor of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela against the external aggression in the African countries of Mali, Tunisia and Namibia were recorded on Wednesday." Yeah, people in Namibia and Mali and Tunisia are really going to protest in favor of Venezuela, yes that definitely sounds like a thing that totally happened in reality because these countries have such strong historic and political and trade links with Venezuela. The reason there's absolutely zero coverage of such a thing happening is because they were super secret protests that no one could know about and they had to tell Delcy Rodriguez about it in a PM on Twitter. Where were these protests recorded? I looked in both French and English and find zero sources of that. My in-laws are both Tunisian and Namibian, coincidentally enough, and I haven't seen my wife's facebook homepage blowing up with support for Venezuela, or anyone mention it ever. Saladman fucked around with this message at 15:46 on Mar 6, 2019 |
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Mar 6, 2019 15:34
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As far as I can tell, the only African countries that have taken any official positions on Venezuela were South Africa, which supports Maduro, and Morroco, which supports Guaido. Everybody else has been quiet so far. Or what Saladman said about the international situation...
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Mar 6, 2019 15:38
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The national press workers' union is reporting that American journalist Cody Weddle has been arrested by the Military Counterintelligence Directorate, and that he had his "work equipment" confiscated. The union lost contact with Weddle at approximately 8:00 AM this morning: https://twitter.com/sntpvenezuela/status/1103300705954213890 EDIT: The SNTP is also reporting that Weddle's colleague, a Venezuelan journalist named Carlos Camacho, was also arrested. The two are being held incommunicado. No one has heard from them since they got picked up almost three hours ago. https://twitter.com/sntpvenezuela/status/1103316950665609216 Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Mar 6, 2019 |
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Mar 6, 2019 15:46
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Darth Walrus posted:The question is how much capacity Abrams and company actually have to make things worse, given that Maduro's government has spent years frantically decoupling the country's economy from the pockets of the public, blocking any opportunity for the citizenry to feed themselves, and going 'I will hurt you if you try to make this my problem' over national health emergencies. I don't know dude, how much worse did Libya get?
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Mar 6, 2019 18:30
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:I'm not just talking about the usual liberal boogeymen of China AND Russia, the entire African Union is against guaido. Why do privileged white first worlders on this forum think they know better than the African Union? Are you saying China and/or Russia are in fact good moral countries, unlike the USA?
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Mar 6, 2019 18:39
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Weddle and Camacho are still missing. There have been 36 journalists arrested in Venezuela so far this year. A human rights NGO called PROVEA is also reporting today that a journalist named Ali Dominguez was beaten to death by unknown assailants. Dominguez had gone missing on February 28 after "attending a volunteer meeting about humanitarian aid" which was attended by human rights groups. PROVEA is reporting that Dominguez was "a dissident chavista" who had reported on corruption at the state-run Universidad Bolivariana in Caracas, and that as a result he had been the victim of a beating by "individuals hired by the authorities of that school".
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Mar 6, 2019 18:56
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zapplez posted:Are you saying China and/or Russia are in fact good moral countries, unlike the USA? No super power is good and moral, but I'll wager the USA has done a poo poo load more harm to other countries than either china or Russia for the last 100 years.
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Mar 6, 2019 22:45
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zapplez posted:Are you saying China and/or Russia are in fact good moral countries, unlike the USA? Do you believe that they're enough of a degree of magnitude more immoral than us to make a difference
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Mar 6, 2019 22:51
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sexpig by night posted:Do you believe that they're enough of a degree of magnitude more immoral than us to make a difference No, and probably most posters here besides CLB would agree with this. Which is why a leader supported by China, Russia, DPRK, Nicaragua. Bolivia, Iran, Turkey, South Africa, Cuba, and a couple micro nations vs a leader supported by 50 other countries puts the weight towards the latter in terms of international agreement. In other news I see that Maduro is trying to eject the German ambassador now, for ... reasons.
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Mar 6, 2019 22:59
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Rust Martialis posted:Cite for AU claim please, from the AU obviously. specifically the only time I've ever seen it brought up was the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry saying "oh yeah, Ethiopia sent us a letter expressing the support of the AU for Maduro and their opposition to Guaido" which was reported by the usual suspects and doesn't appear to have ever been corroborated by or followed up with anything else
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Mar 6, 2019 23:02
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Cody Weddle and Carlos Camacho are still being detained. There is an unconfirmed report this afternoon that they are being accused of espionage and treason.
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Mar 6, 2019 23:13
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Saladman posted:No, and probably most posters here besides CLB would agree with this. Which is why a leader supported by China, Russia, DPRK, Nicaragua. Bolivia, Iran, Turkey, South Africa, Cuba, and a couple micro nations vs a leader supported by 50 other countries puts the weight towards the latter in terms of international agreement. The noted micronation of India
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Mar 6, 2019 23:20
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ehhhhh that article is mostly the Venezuelan ambassador TO India spinning Indian actions and statements and claiming they're fullthroatedly backing the Bolivarian Revolution as embodied in Legitimate President Maduro there are some interesting tidbits with outside corroboration, though, if you ignore basically everything coming out of Monteil's mouth - India's in the "Venezuela needs to settle its business democratically, diplomatically, and nonviolently" basket, which I wouldn't really describe as pro-Maduro in itself - it's the stated position of most of the Lima Group, after all - India seems to be ignoring oil sanctions, which is a Big loving Deal
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Mar 6, 2019 23:29
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Chuck Boone posted:Cody Weddle and Carlos Camacho are still being detained. There is an unconfirmed report this afternoon that they are being accused of espionage and treason. well then maybe they shouldn't have decided to be traitorous spies 
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Mar 6, 2019 23:31
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So you're just conceding the AU thing was bullshit?
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Mar 6, 2019 23:33
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Kawasaki Nun posted:So you're just conceding the AU thing was bullshit? the AU hasn't made any statements to the contrary?
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Mar 6, 2019 23:36
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GreyjoyBastard posted:- India seems to be ignoring oil sanctions, which is a Big loving Deal Well, if you're going to build up India as a proxy to China you're going to have to turn a blind eye to a few transgressions. Or the US has such a hosed foreign policy that one of their proxies they're grooming is BFFs with a Venezuela which they're trying to demolish through sanctions. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, who is friends with my enemy.
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Mar 6, 2019 23:38
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sexpig by night posted:the AU hasn't made any statements to the contrary? nor in support, though, they've just been silent afaict the only evidence either way atm is 1) supportive of Maduro, but 2) pretty weak which feels a little weirder to me now than when the foreign ministry first made the claim
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Mar 6, 2019 23:51
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GreyjoyBastard posted:nor in support, though, they've just been silent afaict I mean considering the situation you'd think a major group like the AU being pinned as arguably one of his most powerful counters to the "EVERY COUNTRY AGREES WITH THE OPPOSITION" argument wrongly would make them go 'uh wait a sec nope we're not in this'?
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Mar 6, 2019 23:53
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sexpig by night posted:I mean considering the situation you'd think a major group like the AU being pinned as arguably one of his most powerful counters to the "EVERY COUNTRY AGREES WITH THE OPPOSITION" argument wrongly would make them go 'uh wait a sec nope we're not in this'? I almost feel like there has to be something I'm missing because it's low-visibility and not in English / not compatible with being googled in English, yeah - I'd expect something either direction by nowish.
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Mar 6, 2019 23:56
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this isn't exactly what I'm looking for but is interesting re VZ Ethiopia relations: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/26/c_137001522.htm Fake edit: oh, Feb 2018, not 2019 Oh well, still thread relevant Edit: February 2019 annual? AU meeting: https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20190211/key-decisions-32nd-ordinary-session-assembly-african-union-january-2019 No mention of Venezuela. Double edit: aha! https://miamidiario.com/union-africana-desconoce-al-regimen-de-maduro-y-presenta-nota-de-protesta-ante-la-embajada-de-venezuela/ Summary: the AU claims they are annoyed by the Venezuelan FM claim. Disclaimer: I don't know poo poo about the Miami Diario. They do, however, have an alleged screenshot of the letter? And some other bits? turns out that what I needed to do was start reading about the Deputy Wossit of the AU and googling his name Another article from another outlet I've never heard of: https://newsbeezer.com/venezulaeng/african-union-denies-maduro-support-and-protests-in-front-of-venezuelan-embassy-press-release/ Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Mar 7, 2019 |
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Mar 6, 2019 23:59
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Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:I don't know dude, how much worse did Libya get? Than present-day Venezuela? That's a more difficult question than you might think. Libya certainly had a greater percentage of the population flee the country than Venezuela (somewhere around a third rather than thirteeneen per cent), although less in absolute numbers. That said, the poverty rate is much higher in Venezuela (87% in poverty, 80% food-insecure) than in Libya (40% in poverty, 10% food-insecure), suggesting the grim possibility that Venezuelans are just too poor to leave. Compare Yemen, where 62% are in poverty, 40% are food-insecure, and 12% have fled the country. The homicide rate in Venezuela also vastly outstrips that in Libya - 81 per 100k as opposed to a positively tranquil 32. Seriously, even by the standards of imperialism-ravaged hellholes, this country is a nasty place to live.
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Mar 7, 2019 00:39
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The DPRK is on the right side of history. I think that settles it.
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Mar 7, 2019 00:40
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Tom Guycot posted:No super power is good and moral, but I'll wager the USA has done a poo poo load more harm to other countries than either china or Russia for the last 100 years. Are we living in the same reality?
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Mar 7, 2019 00:46
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Carlos Camacho has been released, but Weddle is still in custody. Still no word on why the pair were arrested. I can't find the link right now, but someone (I think it was Phil Gunson from Crisis Group) pointed out that Weddle's arrest was almost certainly approved at the highest level of the Venezuelan government, given that 1) it was carried out by the DGCIM, and 2) it involves a U.S. citizen.
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Mar 7, 2019 00:46
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