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Who will be #1 Pick?
DE Nick Bosa
DT Quinnen Williams
White Quarterback
Kicker...yeah...definitely the Kicker
View Results
 
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D-LINK
Oct 1, 2007

I was talking to peachy Peach about kissy Kiss. He bought me a soda.

Catfish Noodlin posted:

Yes, usually that's what it ends up being- you take a 4-3 Under and have guys line up and do similar things to a 3-4 but have a little more flexibility with personnel.

The Patriots, Lions, and probably the Dolphins are doing something different- Belichick seems to have completely dropped that 4-3 Under they ran for a couple years, and now run a bunch of pretty unique formations using some 3-4 like elements(without seemingly ever running a 3-4).

70% of all NFL defensive snaps are played in nickel or dime sub packages, with as little a 2 linemen, the rest being LBs and DBs in varying configurations, rendering the 3-4/4-3 base defense designation pretty much useless.

Wade Phillips confused the poo poo out of Brady in the 2015 AFCCG by putting 8 guys in coverage with 2 down lineman and Von Miller rushing from the edge, for example.

Houston will move Watt and or Clowney anywhere along the line in any formation bc both guys are versatile enough to rush from any gap standing up like an OLB or set like a traditional DL.

Anyway, the point is teams are almost never in base defense anymore

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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Yeah, teams are in 11 personnel over 2/3rds of the time, and if you line up in a base defense against it, congrats you've got a linebacker on a WR and just gave up a 12 yard completion.

Here's a breakdown of how often offenses use each personnel grouping: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

imagine having to play the 49ers then the rams the next week as a defensive coach.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I keep hearing about how the Chiefs switching to a 4-3 doesn't matter at all because they're in sub packages most of the time. But then I think about how they have to pay Dee Ford 2 million dollars more if they admit they're switching Ford to RDE and the fact that Houston and Ford will both play the RDE in a base 4-3 alignment and they're shopping both.

I have no idea what the Chiefs are actually doing with their defense basically. They may switch Chris Jones or they may start Breeland Speaks, a guy drafted as an outside linebacker last year which made no sense because he's 285 pounds and slow. He's made to be a defensive end in a 4-3.

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.

MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:

70% of all NFL defensive snaps are played in nickel or dime sub packages, with as little a 2 linemen, the rest being LBs and DBs in varying configurations, rendering the 3-4/4-3 base defense designation pretty much useless.

Wade Phillips confused the poo poo out of Brady in the 2015 AFCCG by putting 8 guys in coverage with 2 down lineman and Von Miller rushing from the edge, for example.

Houston will move Watt and or Clowney anywhere along the line in any formation bc both guys are versatile enough to rush from any gap standing up like an OLB or set like a traditional DL.

Anyway, the point is teams are almost never in base defense anymore


Sure, but I think base packages work better as a short-hand to describe defensive philosophies than describing Nickel packages do. The differences in defensive philosophy in general largely stems from how they're choosing to defend the gaps that an offense is presenting, and the more gaps present the more complicated that gets, and those complications end up creating key characteristics of the defense.

Base defenses have to defend a wider variety of formations and personnel packages than Nickel. They've got to defend both two-back and single-back, they're generally tasked with defending bigger gap disadvantages(2-back 2-TE usually), and they've got a wider array of unbalanced formations.

Sub packages are all pretty much tasked with defending the same offensive package(11 personnel), and the way that is defended is much more similar from team to team- there might be window dressing in terms of 2-point vs. 3-point stances, but pretty much everyone is still using the same kind of 4-2 with wide force defenders at least like half of the time, or they might be running a 4-1 dime package where the extra DB gets asked to do the same drat thing.

Hamhandler fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Mar 6, 2019

JPrime
Jul 4, 2007

tales of derring-do, bad and good luck tales!
College Slice

Kalli posted:

Yeah, teams are in 11 personnel over 2/3rds of the time, and if you line up in a base defense against it, congrats you've got a linebacker on a WR and just gave up a 12 yard completion.

doesn't a base defense have 2 CBs and 2 safeties?

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

JPrime posted:

doesn't a base defense have 2 CBs and 2 safeties?

Yeah they do, but you're probably not going to commit both safeties to the TE & slot if you're playing man very often. And if you put a LB on the TE and a safety on the slot you're probably facing a mismatch somewhere. There are good LBs in coverage who might be able to handle most NFL TEs, and there are safeties that can cover a slot, but not many teams have both.

And if you're playing zone you're surely going to have a LB who isn't up to his responsibility.

It's just way easier to put another DB out there most of the time.

JPrime
Jul 4, 2007

tales of derring-do, bad and good luck tales!
College Slice
sonofa i forgot that 11 personnel meant 3 WR. n/m

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Alaois posted:

i just wanna shout out the guy in that dk metcalf twitter thread earlier who compared metcalf to mike evans, definitely an actual reasonable comp and not the most insane poo poo i've ever heard in my life

There are definitely similarities, mainly in size and speed. Mike Evans has amazing stop and start for his size and runs very crisp and technically proficient routes of all varieties though. His three cone and shuttle was faster, although Metcalf's other measurables killed him. So I guess it is a reasonable comparison with the caveat that Mike Evans is a bit more nimble.


Catfish Noodlin posted:

Sure, but I think base packages work better as a short-hand to describe defensive philosophies than describing Nickel packages do. The differences in defensive philosophy in general largely stems from how they're choosing to defend the gaps that an offense is presenting, and the more gaps present the more complicated that gets, and those complications end up creating key characteristics of the defense.

Yeah this is exactly how I think of it. It's true that in certain packages there are very similar personnel in each scheme, but there are still differences in how the gaps are designed to be filled. A lot of guys, especially 4-3 defensive ends and defensive tackles, can move to defensive tackle in a 3-4. But not everyone can make the shift (and preserve their effectiveness) from hand in the dirt to upright outside linebacker. All the other positions on the line have versions in each scheme that one guy should be able to fill.


Catfish Noodlin posted:

IMO the Patriots defense(and what the Dolphins seem likely to run) is broken down into these sub-positions(which are then re-arranged into a variety of situations)

NT- Classic 2-gap player, needs to be able to control a center or guard. They seem to be willing to spend on a guy who they think can also play DT(Malcom Brown)
Draft-wise, Dexter Lawrence is really the guy and someone they've met with. I don't know if there's a lot of other options here.

DT- Pretty much a standard 3-technique most of the time. The Patriots seem willing to spend for aggressive, athletic 1-gap guys here(Dominique Easley), which I can see how it would work.
Draft-wise, the most likely guy is Ed Oliver I think. They apparently grilled him at the combine, there's a chance he makes it to #13. They've also talked to Quinnen Williams, which seems a bit optimistic. They've spoken to Armon Watts as well. Christian Wilkins would probably fit in here.

DE- They want Michael Bennett/Justin Tuck kind of guys(or for that matter, Trey Flowers). I've got a suspicion that it's more of a later round pick for the Patriots, but the Dolphins might be in a situation where this is clearly the BPA.
Draft-wise they've talked to Nick Bosa(again, optimistic) and Rashan Gary who both fall into this sub-position. They've also met with LJ Collier, Jalen Jelks, and Charles Omenihu. Clelin Ferrell would probably fit in here.

OLB- 3-4 style OLBs are the order of the day here. They want guys who can play the run and can cover here, and they end up giving a solid amount of reps to these guys as true off-the-ball linebackers as well.
Draft-wise this is a harder one to fill IMO, they've talked to Montez Sweat, Jachai Polite, Jordan Brailford, and Sione Takitaki. Brian Burns would probably fit in here, but he might be a bit of a finesse player for their liking.

I knew you'd do a better job

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.

Play posted:


I knew you'd do a better job

Aw, schucks.

Alaois
Feb 7, 2012

Play posted:

There are definitely similarities, mainly in size and speed. Mike Evans has amazing stop and start for his size and runs very crisp and technically proficient routes of all varieties though. His three cone and shuttle was faster, although Metcalf's other measurables killed him. So I guess it is a reasonable comparison with the caveat that Mike Evans is a bit more nimble.


it's an insane comparison because Mike Evan's greatest attribute is catching anything thrown within a 15 yard radius of him and DK Metcalf can't catch a loving nerf ball

TheFlyingLlama
Jan 2, 2013

You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and be a llama?



DK Metcalf is a created madden dude come to life. Tall, fast, strong and runs nothing but go routes? that's madden cheese for sure lol

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Alaois posted:

it's an insane comparison because Mike Evan's greatest attribute is catching anything thrown within a 15 yard radius of him and DK Metcalf can't catch a loving nerf ball

I don't know anything about his catching skills besides what people have said on here that he doesn't have a great percentage when targeted. He didn't seem bad at the combine.

What I do know is that Mike Evans runs awesome routes and for a big man he can law down a double move like nobody's business. He can get open on the strength of his breaks alone

TheFlyingLlama posted:

DK Metcalf is a created madden dude come to life. Tall, fast, strong and runs nothing but go routes? that's madden cheese for sure lol

So what you're saying is he's the next Randy Moss

TheFlyingLlama
Jan 2, 2013

You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and be a llama?



Play posted:

So what you're saying is he's the next Randy Moss

more like randy moss if randy moss couldn't actually catch

Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

Randy Moss could run routes and block like the Hall of Fame player he is.

He's probably a worse Cordarrelle Patterson

Gumbel2Gumbel fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Mar 7, 2019

Alaois
Feb 7, 2012

Play posted:

I don't know anything about his catching skills besides what people have said on here that he doesn't have a great percentage when targeted. He didn't seem bad at the combine.

What I do know is that Mike Evans runs awesome routes and for a big man he can law down a double move like nobody's business. He can get open on the strength of his breaks alone

the crux of the twitter person's comparison was that Mike Evan is also bad at running routes and making breaks so

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

quote:


“I think that his height was inflated,'” an unnamed scout told Dan Patrick on Tuesday, and Dan relayed the story on the Wednesday edition of his show. “‘Maybe it’s the tin-foil hat theory. I just don’t see it. If he refuses to be measured at the Pro Day, that will be telling.'”

It’s definitely a tin-foil hat theory, but with so much gold riding on individual draft position, who knows that prospects may do to warp reality? As to Murray’s weight, Chris Simms suggested last week that Murray possibly opted not to work out at the Combine because he focused on packing on as many pounds as possible, and that Murray will turn his attention to shedding the weight and running as fast as possible at his Pro Day workout.

lol

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Finally a conspiracy theory that I can get behind

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
I mean the idea that he bulked up for the combine and will shed weight for his pro day 40 is probably correct. Don't know why he felt the need to append a conspiracy theory

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I just want to know if he was wearing shoes when his height was measured. That feeling is based on decades of bullshit heights being exposed in the NBA combine without shoes. Suddenly your "6'11" power forward is actually 6'8 3/4

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

kiimo posted:

I just want to know if he was wearing shoes when his height was measured. That feeling is based on decades of bullshit heights being exposed in the NBA combine without shoes. Suddenly your "6'11" power forward is actually 6'8 3/4

It's also really easy to cheat the vertical. What you do is pretend that your shoulder won't push your arm up as far as it actually will, just kind of don't reach up hard. so that when they subtract that number from your score you've gained several inches.

What they should use are those electronic jump pads that measure force and time in the air

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Also they should watch more tape. Just in case you plan on taking Hasheem Thabeet ahead of Steph Curry.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Play posted:

I mean the idea that he bulked up for the combine and will shed weight for his pro day 40 is probably correct. Don't know why he felt the need to append a conspiracy theory

Doing this is a bullshit way to game the system and should be called out. Of course it’s the player’s choice to participate in these things so if they want to do this you can’t force them, but scouts should definitely factor this in.

The height thing is crazy though. Murray’s height is one of the most scrutinized draft things in years. I can’t imagine he would find a way to game the system there with so many people interested in his height.

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

Slowpoke! posted:

Doing this is a bullshit way to game the system and should be called out. Of course it’s the player’s choice to participate in these things so if they want to do this you can’t force them, but scouts should definitely factor this in.

The height thing is crazy though. Murray’s height is one of the most scrutinized draft things in years. I can’t imagine he would find a way to game the system there with so many people interested in his height.

he probably hung upside down like spiderman the week before, is my theory

Amy Pole Her
Jun 17, 2002
If he refuses to be measured at his pro day then that’s super obvious

But hey Arizona’s problem!

BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK
Jan 26, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

Play posted:

I mean the idea that he bulked up for the combine and will shed weight for his pro day 40 is probably correct. Don't know why he felt the need to append a conspiracy theory

It wouldn't be too difficult to add 15-20lbs in water weight alone, and that can be done in 2 days or so

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Slowpoke! posted:

Doing this is a bullshit way to game the system and should be called out.

I don't know about that. The way I see it the only reason he put on weight to begin with was to meet the expectations of a bunch of crusty old fuckers stuck in the past. I always have and always will support players gaming the system

hifi posted:

he probably hung upside down like spiderman the week before, is my theory

I'm going with medieval stretch rack

DariusLikewise
Oct 4, 2008

You wore that on Halloween?

Play posted:

It's also really easy to cheat the vertical. What you do is pretend that your shoulder won't push your arm up as far as it actually will, just kind of don't reach up hard. so that when they subtract that number from your score you've gained several inches.

What they should use are those electronic jump pads that measure force and time in the air

I mean you're really just looking at comparisons, so if you are looking at a position group as a whole and everyone manages to add 3 inches to your vertical, you're still just going to look at who measured the best overall.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
You are about an inch taller in the morning than in the evening bc your disks are fully hydrated and decompressed, maybe Kyler just lay on a bed or hung upside down on an inversion table right before the measurement

Edit: nm everyone has already mentioned this

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Play posted:

The way I see it the only reason he put on weight to begin with was to meet the expectations of a bunch of crusty old fuckers stuck in the past.


I am an admitted crusty old fucker stuck in the past because I think he's gonna get rocked in the NFL playing at his actual height and weight. Maybe I'm wrong but I wouldn't bet the #1 draft pick on him, especially if I own a brand new 6'4 quarterback whom the jury is still way out on.

Then again I'd have never hired Kingsbury to be a head coach in the NFL but hey what do I know.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
Kingsbury is making me appreciate Adam Gase....

Mega64
May 23, 2008

I took the octopath less travelered,

And it made one-eighth the difference.
Maybe Murray can stretch to twice his height and he's just saving his super stretchy powers for when he faces the Patriots in the Super Bowl so Belicheck can't plan around it.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Mega64 posted:

Maybe Murray can stretch to twice his height and he's just saving his super stretchy powers for when he faces the Patriots in the Super Bowl so Belicheck can't plan around it.

It's been done before


https://www.instagram.com/p/BuDCDmpni8A/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

DariusLikewise posted:

I mean you're really just looking at comparisons, so if you are looking at a position group as a whole and everyone manages to add 3 inches to your vertical, you're still just going to look at who measured the best overall.

But everyone's doing it to a different extent and it's impossible to tell exactly how much. Some poor suckers might not be doing it at all!!

SHOAH NUFF posted:

You are about an inch taller in the morning than in the evening bc your disks are fully hydrated and decompressed, maybe Kyler just lay on a bed or hung upside down on an inversion table right before the measurement

Edit: nm everyone has already mentioned this

I think it was a joke when it was posted before, so I'll allow it :catstare:

I'm just picturing a part of the combine locker rooms where everyone just hanging upside down like a pack of bats for hours

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
It’s funny imagining Kylers agent begging him to remain as horizontal as possible before the measurement to ensure the spine doesn’t compress and he doesn’t lose that overnight height bump

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.
Dexter Lawrence evidentally has PFF's 4th best Pass Rush Productivity number among defensive tackles, which I find loving wild.

Slowpoke!
Feb 12, 2008

ANIME IS FOR ADULTS

Catfish Noodlin posted:

Dexter Lawrence evidentally has PFF's 4th best Pass Rush Productivity number among defensive tackles, which I find loving wild.

He probably would have been a top 10-15 pick if it wasn't for the suspension. Maybe higher if he had a chance and played well in the CFB playoffs.

Guy is built for today's NFL. He can play pretty much every position on the DL, and a top-rated NT only comes around once every 3-4 years it seems.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

SHOAH NUFF posted:

It’s funny imagining Kylers agent begging him to remain as horizontal as possible before the measurement to ensure the spine doesn’t compress and he doesn’t lose that overnight height bump

Now I'm imagining him being wheeled in to weigh ins like Hannibal Lecter strapped to a board.

NickRoweFillea
Sep 27, 2012

doin thangs

kiimo posted:

Also they should watch more tape. Just in case you plan on taking Hasheem Thabeet ahead of Steph Curry.

Please put a content warning on that name

Hamhandler
Aug 9, 2008

[I want to] shit in your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your fucking mouth. [I'm going to] slap your real mother across the face [laughter]. Fuck you, you're still a rookie. I'll kill you.

Slowpoke! posted:

He probably would have been a top 10-15 pick if it wasn't for the suspension. Maybe higher if he had a chance and played well in the CFB playoffs.

Guy is built for today's NFL. He can play pretty much every position on the DL, and a top-rated NT only comes around once every 3-4 years it seems.

I think it was so surprising because I guess at some level I don't think it's something that's going to translate to the NFL. Dexter Lawrence is just basically overpowering guys, and I don't think that translates to the NFL even if you are huge and strong with long arms. Guys are still going to be able to anchor on you.

Like, he doesn't even seem comparable to Vita Vea, for example, even though Lawrence technically was more productive on a per snap basis in their senior years. Vea had a much better set of pass rush moves.

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El Gallinero Gros
Mar 17, 2010
Say Bosa goes #1, like everyone assumes, is the smart pick Allen or Quinnen Williams for SF? They could use a another pass rusher but DL is a need too..

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