|
AstraSage posted:Phoneposting from Valencia. Nothing on Twitter about protests in Caracas. From what I've been so far, the city looks like a ghost town today as not many people have any reason to head outside with the power still out in most areas.
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 21:48 |
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:tbf multiple folks in this thread have posted about how if we respond appropriately to climate change, Venezuela is doomed regardless of who runs it I'm not arguing that they aren't, just against the idea that a refusal to buy Venezuelalen oil makes a nation morally culpable because Maduro won't allow food aid in and can't buy food (which is absolutely what would happen with those oil profits, they certainly wouldn't go missing in some official's care.) Also, anyone who wants to tell me that I'm wrong and Maduro is really trying super hard to get food aid in, please post your sources so that I can become as enlightened as you. I know I should take you on faith, but that's just not how I'm wired.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:20
|
|
|
I kind of had my hunches that catastrophic failure of the Guri dam would be what would finally end Maduro's regime. I hope this is finally it, but he's a tenacious big fucker. Looting must be about to go off the charts, assuming there is still anything to loot. I guess the high-end grocery stores that have food are probably hiring armed guards around the clock anyway.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:29
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:Well, you *just* said "without access to trade with EU and USA, they currently don't have any way of getting that currency, even if they wanted to". So yes, and pardon me for using your own words, exactly *what* is preventing "access to trade with the EU"? Your article you linked talks about "further sanctions", not "current sanctions", you might notice. Are there currently EU sanctions blocking access to trade? Is that your position? quote:On 13 November 2017 the Council of the EU adopted restrictive measures in view of the continuing deterioration of democracy, the rule of law and human rights in Venezuela. Travel restrictions and an asset freeze can be imposed in relation to those responsible for serious human rights violations or abuses or the repression of civil society and democratic opposition, and those whose actions, policies or activities otherwise undermine democracy or the rule of law in Venezuela. The restrictive measures aim at fostering a credible and meaningful process that can lead to a peaceful negotiated solution. The measures can be reversed depending on the evolution of the situation in the country, in particular the holding of credible and meaningful negotiations, the respect for democratic institutions, the adoption of a full electoral calendar and the liberation of all political prisoners. Followed by switzerland freezing assets in 2018: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/diplomatic-action_swiss-slap-sanctions-on-venezuela-and-freeze-assets/44007764 Frozen govt assets in 2019: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/u-k-said-to-deny-maduro-s-bid-to-pull-1-2-billion-of-gold And that is to say nothing of the chilling effects of such actions, which Jose posted about before in here. It's a mexican standoff between the regime and outsiders, but all the guns are aimed at venezuelan people. If the current situation persist or keeps escalating for an extended period of time, it won't really have a much different end than a literal invasion would, which is saying something. Maduro failing to provide enough for his people does not excuse cutting off the rest.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:29
|
|
|
AstraSage posted:Phoneposting from Valencia. Guaido posted on Twitter just now that protests will take place tomorrow. https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1104038694170910720
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:30
|
|
|
Truga posted:Travel restrictions and asset freeze on venezuelan govt officials, since 2017, extended for another year in oct 2018, so still in effect. So which of those sanctions are blocking access to the EU market? You cited another article that explains the sanctions thusly: "The Swiss sanctions include banning the sale or export to Venezuela of arms and goods which can be used for internal repression and of equipment that can be used to monitor and intercept internet and telephone communications." So this isn't stopping trading for food or medicine, or really anything relevant to daily life. The asset freezes on certain corrupt individuals, likewise not stopping Venezuelan companies from trading with the EU, likewise assigning ownership of gold assets to the legitimate government headed by Guaido, isn't blocking "access to the EU market" like you said has happened. Do you even read these articles before you post them? They keep contradicting you, maybe you should find ones that support you for a change? You seem very poorly informed. Maybe read the OP, it has a lot of information you seem unfamiliar with.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:51
|
|
|
lol (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 16:57
|
|
|
Truga posted:lol Yeah, that pretty much sums up your argument.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 17:06
|
|
|
National Assembly deputy Jose Manuel Olivares provided an update on the status of some of the hospitals in the country. According to him:
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 17:57
|
|
|
Iirc lack of power is what caused most of the deaths in Puerto Rico, so that's... Bad
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:02
|
|
|
Yup. It's a matter of "how many" at this point.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:07
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:The blackout is still affecting most of the country. This is unprecedented. I do not imagine that the electrical infrastructure is in very manageable shape, even compared to a baseline standard of a few years ago where electrical engineers were submitting statements of protest over the gross negligence and mismanagement of vital city systems. I also imagine that, compared to those years, a substantial portion of those engineers are not present at their posts anymore. I forget where I heard it, but apparently they tend to be one of the more reliable parts of brain drain when a system is drowning in corruption, blatantly unsustainable operational cuts, or other mismanagement. If you've worked with transformers and heavy duty fuses enough to know you don't want to be the one working on them as a system teeters to collapse and said transformers and fuses have become overloaded and neglected, you leave rather than become whichever poor fucker gets flash-cooked on a rush job of catastrophically overdue maintenance.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:14
|
|
|
Kavros posted:I forget where I heard it, but apparently they tend to be one of the more reliable parts of brain drain when a system is drowning in corruption, blatantly unsustainable operational cuts, or other mismanagement. If you've worked with transformers and heavy duty fuses enough to know you don't want to be the one working on them as a system teeters to collapse and said transformers and fuses have become overloaded and neglected, you leave rather than become whichever poor fucker gets flash-cooked on a rush job of catastrophically overdue maintenance. Or just before something borderline apocalyptic happens and you get blamed for it. As someone who does not have an engineering degree, how does this realistically get fixed? It almost sounds like they might just need to tear everything out and start over.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:26
|
|
|
Kavros posted:I do not imagine that the electrical infrastructure is in very manageable shape, even compared to a baseline standard of a few years ago where electrical engineers were submitting statements of protest over the gross negligence and mismanagement of vital city systems. I agree! One thing to keep in mind once electrical service is restored and we start hearing more from the government is to be weary of any footage that claims to show damaged/stolen equipment. Just to give you two examples, back in 2012, Minister of Electrical Energy Hector Navarro held a press conference to show what he said was "evidence" that there had been sabotage at an electrical plant. He showed pictures of a burnt piece of equipment and claimed that it had been lit on fire with matches. Back in 2015, minister Dominguez claimed to also show evidence of stolen equipment and also called that sabotage. It's important that we question those claims for a couple of reasons. First, that kind of evidence on its face doesn't point to sabotage. A piece of damaged or stolen equipment by itself isn't proof of sabotage: it's only proof that equipment was damaged or stolen. Second, what the government calls "sabotage" could just as well be vandalism or theft. Metal theft is a relatively common phenomenon in many places around the world, and while I have no doubt that people have stolen metal and equipment from electrical infrastructure in Venezuela (as they have in Canada, the United States, and pretty much anywhere where there is electrical infrastructure and people), calling that "sabotage" is simply incorrect. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If the government wants to claim that this was an act of sabotage then it has to prove it, and pictures of missing and/or damaged equipment simply isn't good enough evidence.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:29
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:I'm curious if the OP agrees that the food crisis predates the recent sanctions or not; they've avoided replying clearly. I’m not sure what to believe wrt the food crises. Whether I believe your side of the events or not isn’t really germane to what I said though. I’m not sure how it’s hard for your to comprehend that even if there was a preexisting food crisis, the US intentionally worsening it for the purposes of regime change is monstrous
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 18:56
|
|
|
Condiv posted:I’m not sure what to believe wrt the food crises. Whether I believe your side of the events or not isn’t really germane to what I said though. I think there's a fair bit of evidence that there's a food crisis, but I guess the most important question is if I can find a source that would be credible enough for you. All I can contribute is personally knowing two venezuelans who used to work in .. I think it was combine harvesting? If not a combine, some kind of thing where you drive farm trucks and harvesting equipment on large fields. They really started to notice problems as annual harvests kept getting delayed and field maintenance stopped being done because the agriculture fund was effectively quasi-legally being bled into the pockets of party officials, and then later when they realized that loyalist groups (chavistas?) were getting most of the social food distribution program redirected to them and it was getting harder to find basic, staple foods or cooking oil, even at secondhand black market resellers they called bachaqueros. This was bad news for them because they hadn't ever had much of a salary, and hyperinflation would render their pay irrelevant in increasingly rapid timeframes. Then Carnival rolled around and they remembered how people used to throw eggs, but you really couldn't do that anymore. People were starting to lose weight. You could buy handbags made entirely of artistically folded banknotes in progressively obscene denominations. Stores would be empty or closed. TV would show pictures of creatively stocked stores (example in this thread, if you look back, shelves perspective-filled with just nothing but some kind of sauce and then sold on state media as "look! we're totally stocked! so much food!"). People started losing even more weight. People who had means started saying "I have to find a way to get out of here." People who could buy flights out simply did so. Then, people specifically and intentionally stopped talking about having to get out. Hunger started creating secondhand crisis. The fields went unmaintained and unharvested. Groups of looters would break in and strip anything out of the farm equipment they thought they could resell for money. Waits in food distribution lines got longer and longer. They found a way to leave. They aren't living around here anymore but they try to keep in touch with all the people still in the country, who largely have no means to leave. They are mostly apolitical I think from the tortured exhaustion of having lived under a bit of a kleptocratic mess, but in Maduro they see nothing of Chavez, and they have no illusions that the country will be able to heal while it is still subject to the weight of Maduro's policy of "Maduro doing whatever it takes to keep control of the public resources Maduro can fleece to extend a lease on power" Things are very ... not great there. People are genuinely starving, and the legacy is, in a primary sense, the product of quite observable negligence and criminality by an increasingly dysfunctional and despotic regime.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:28
|
|
|
Kavros posted:I think there's a fair bit of evidence that there's a food crisis, but I guess the most important question is if I can find a source that would be credible enough for you. Oh I believe there’s a food crisis, and I think I’ve made that pretty clear. The causes are what I’m not sure on, with one exception (the us sanctions)
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:35
|
|
|
I believe, sincerely, that sanctions are a relatively minimal component of the mess in Venezuela at present. I think that even if they were done away with tomorrow, it would make a somewhat negligible impact on the general crisis of the Venezuelan state, because it will ultimately only be utilized to extend the power conservation structures of a kleptocratic, somewhat measurably inept leadership. While I am in favor of removing all sanctions on Venezuela and staying uninvolved, complete reversal of the sanctions would effectively translate to military and loyalist appropriation of the majority of food aid, then resale to the rest of the general populace via bachaquero-style means.Keeshhound posted:As someone who does not have an engineering degree, how does this realistically get fixed? It almost sounds like they might just need to tear everything out and start over. If this gets to true shitshow levels, expect it to have a triad of problems which are severe enough on their own, but combine spectacularly to create extreme human misery. 1. Institutional neglect - parts are old or poorly maintained from built-up years of insufficient institutional means of support and insufficient funding. 2. Mismanagement via corruption - see also what happened to Venezuela's oil industry. Systems that cover up the reality of operational reports are especially dangerous. 3. Looting - when a bit of copper (or anything else that looks remotely pawnable) will go a long way to feeding you or your children in a time of need, it will start being hacked or clipped out of your infrastructure fast. brain drain can likely be rolled up into point no. 2 somewhat, but I do legitimately imagine a lot of qualified technicians and electricians are no longer involved or invested in maintenance compared to as short as a few years ago. I suppose if they had the means they left the country to find work somewhere that might pay them in stable currency and/or not start to electrocute them in substantial numbers, and will be written off as decadent bourgeois neoliberal traitors or something. The rest may have just stopped getting reliable pay and are more busy finding food in other ways.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:44
|
|
|
Kavros posted:I believe, sincerely, that sanctions are a relatively minimal component of the mess in Venezuela at present. https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/01/277739.htm quote:Background Briefing on the Secretary's Travel to Austin, Texas; Mexico City, Mexico; San Carlos Bariloche, Argentina; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Lima, Peru; Bogota, Colombia; and Kingston, Jamaica  quote:While I am in favor of removing all sanctions on Venezuela and staying uninvolved, complete reversal of the sanctions would effectively translate to military and loyalist appropriation of the majority of food aid, then resale to the rest of the general populace via bachaquero-style means. What do you base this assertion on? Please don't just say "it is self evident" because most food aid doesn't just get hoarded by warlords and that's pretty low on the list of issues with food aid really. COMRADES fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:50
|
|
|
Kavros posted:I believe, sincerely, that sanctions are a relatively minimal component of the mess in Venezuela at present. I think that even if they were done away with tomorrow, it would make a somewhat negligible impact on the general crisis of the Venezuelan state, because it will ultimately only be utilized to extend the power conservation structures of a kleptocratic, somewhat measurably inept leadership. While I am in favor of removing all sanctions on Venezuela and staying uninvolved, complete reversal of the sanctions would effectively translate to military and loyalist appropriation of the majority of food aid, then resale to the rest of the general populace via bachaquero-style means. my thoughts are that venezuela cannot get out of this crisis while under sections, so I do not think they are a mininimal component of the crisis. maduro and co. may well be too corrupt to do right by the people of venezuela, but he definitely can't do the right thing while sanctions are in place, and the crisis will continue as long as the sanctions remain. if sanctions are lifted, aid is provided, and maduro embezzles everything, i hope the citizens of venezuela overthrow him. however, i think the US should not be involved ever. i think the US has proven it cannot be trusted to intervene and have a good resolution, and with trump things would just end up worse.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:53
|
|
|
Condiv posted:Oh I believe there’s a food crisis, and I think I’ve made that pretty clear. The causes are what I’m not sure on, with one exception (the us sanctions) "I have no clue what is going on, but the US is definitely to blame for some of it."
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:56
|
|
|
Private Witt posted:"I have no clue what is going on, but the US is definitely to blame for some of it." Well the State Department in Jan 2018 was literally bragging about how well their strategy for putting Venezuela into default and economic crisis is working and they're gonna keep at it so yup, pretty much.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 19:57
|
|
|
Curiosly skipped highlighting this one sentence in the middle: "And what we are seeing because of the bad choices of the Maduro regime is a total economic collapse in Venezuela." Possibly because it points out the collapse is first and foremost due to Maduro's years of "bad choices". Kudos for the selective reading though. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:07
|
|
|
To be fair, many of those bad choices were actually made by Chavez.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:10
|
|
|
COMRADES posted:Well the State Department in Jan 2018 was literally bragging about how well their strategy for putting Venezuela into default and economic crisis is working and they're gonna keep at it so yup, pretty much. There's a sentence in there that you left conveniently unbolded in that 2018 quote. It's the one between the two bold sentences. EFB. Even ignoring that, the economic crisis in Venezuela long predates the sanctions. Blame it on the fall in oil prices if you want, but there were plenty of bad signs even before that. dublish fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:12
|
|
|
Private Witt posted:"I have no clue what is going on, but the US is definitely to blame for some of it." economic sanctions have proven to worsen or cause food crises in the past, and the ghoulish US leadership just got done talking about how much more they should sanction venezuela cause they want people to be hungry enough to overthrow the government, but not so hungry they can't move.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:13
|
|
|
A US grand jury has indicted former VP Tareck El Aissami and some of his alleged associates on five counts related to drug trafficking. The indictment is here. EDIT: Correction: the charges aren't that he violated the Kingpin Act. The charges are that he violated and evaded sanctions placed on him pursuant to the Kingpin Act (i.e., that he conducted business with US entities when he was banned from doing so via sanctions) Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:15
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:A US grand jury has indicted former VP Tareck El Aissami and some of his alleged associates on five counts related to drug trafficking. Is El Aissami a defector or someone who took advantage of the amnesty law, or is he currently still aligned with Maduro? fake edit: ah, he's currently Minister of Industries and National Production and is one of the individually sanctioned people from earlier, for a lot of the same stuff. edit: jesus this guy's got a pedigree Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:22
|
|
|
COMRADES posted:Well the State Department in Jan 2018 was literally bragging about how well their strategy for putting Venezuela into default and economic crisis is working and they're gonna keep at it so yup, pretty much. First of all, any culpability from the US is completely and totally dwarfed by the regime's culpability. You don't often hear the "USA #195" people dare to even mention the regime. That's not on their RADAR screen to care about. Secondly, the US has culpability in two different directions. The US was sending billions of dollars to Venezuela buying their oil, which was helping to keep Maduro in power, because the regime was premised on stealing the money coming in. So do you help to keep his kleptocracy in power or do you stop sending money to people who steal it because some small percent was trickling downward? It's not unreasonable to be against sanctions, but it's not a black-and-white topic, and this thread is becoming overrun with people who don't want to learn the nuances. As just discussed here, part of the reason that the electrical grid is so lovely is that the money that was supposed to fix it vanished into the pockets of children of regime officials. Some or much of that money is probably no longer even in Venezuela. The US sending/not sending money is not the conclusion to this crisis (as the Russians have painfully learned with their forays into propping up Maduro). To prattle on and on exclusively about the far lesser thing like the US sanctions is literally (and I mean literally) the exact propaganda that the regime uses to deflect blame away from themselves. USA this, CIA that. Nothing is the regime's fault. There is no crisis. Anything that goes wrong is due to the USA. The regime has - witting or unwitting - water carriers in here banging away at the same message endlessly. Unpaid volunteer work for a dictatorship.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:28
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:Curiosly skipped highlighting this one sentence in the middle: Uh because those choices were in response to their sanctions obviously. Yeah I'm the one doing selective reading. The state department official literally says 'our strategy is working and putting them in default.' "Haha he didn't navigate the trap we created well enough, all his fault!" COMRADES fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:36
|
|
|
Private Witt posted:First of all, any culpability from the US is completely and totally dwarfed by the regime's culpability. You don't often hear the "USA #195" people dare to even mention the regime. That's not on their RADAR screen to care about. the nuances of starving the venezuelan people in service of regime change. ok
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:37
|
|
|
dublish posted:There's a sentence in there that you left conveniently unbolded in that 2018 quote. It's the one between the two bold sentences. The entire reason that Venezuela is so dependent on oil in the first place is due to the way the country was structured by colonial US influence after they kicked the British out when oil was discovered. Look Maduro has made mistakes and done bad things but jfc the idea that the USA isn't a major influence in what is happening. Are you guys high schoolers in your first civics classes? This exact playbook has been used quite a few times before. "The far lesser thing" lol. Just another justification for another military intervention by the most moral country on Earth. "The sanctions are bad, but... They aren't doing that much." "Food aid is good, but... It would all be seized by Maduro loyalists anyway." Lol stop kidding yourselves. COMRADES fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:38
|
|
|
COMRADES posted:The entire reason that Venezuela is so dependent on oil in the first place is due to the way the country was structured by colonial US influence after they kicked the British out when oil was discovered. uh what
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:44
|
|
|
COMRADES posted:The entire reason that Venezuela is so dependent on oil in the first place is due to the way the country was structured by colonial US influence after they kicked the British out when oil was discovered. Uhm, no.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:47
|
|
|
Umm, yes. Educate yourselves. I found links to Standford Uni sources about the history of oil in Venezuela in minutes.quote:Later Gomez gave almost the same concession to Rafael Valladares who formed the Caribbean Petroleum Company. This company made several million dollars exploring oil and asphalt on the Lake of Maracaibo. In 1913 the concession was transferred to a British-Dutch operator, the Royal Dutch-Shell Oil Company. This was the beginning of the modern economic history of Venezuela. COMRADES fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Mar 8, 2019 |
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:53
|
|
|
Uhhh, are you referring to the Venezuela Crisis of 1902? Over a decade before oil was discovered? I mean you might as well say they kicked out Germany and Italy also, which would be equally not true.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:55
|
|
|
No, I'm not. I'm talking about the events between the Royal Dutch-Shell Company having control of oil there in 1913 and then massive US investment a few years later to wrest control away.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:56
|
|
|
Acebuckeye13 posted:uh You never heard how Britain was the colonial overlord of Venezuela for decades? Me neither.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:57
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:You never heard how Britain was the colonial overlord of Venezuela for decades? Did I say this? No I didn't. Royal Dutch-Shell company had control of oil in Venezuela in 1913 yes or no.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 20:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 21:48 |
|
|
COMRADES posted:Umm, yes. Educate yourselves. I found links to Standford Uni sources about the history of oil in Venezuela in minutes. Beware the man who has only read one book.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2019 21:00
|
|