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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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Mellow Seas posted:Put me down for People A Lot Smarter Than Schultz '20. Another vote for Trump 
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Mar 10, 2019 02:23
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Z. Autobahn posted:Wrap it up Bernailures, Klobuchar's bringing the HEAT Well, John Kerry has some competition for worst campaign trail zinger
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Mar 10, 2019 02:27
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https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1104547448213684224
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Mar 10, 2019 02:39
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Biden bubble but Sanders and Warren in the lead. Good. I take it Buttguy didn't rate?
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Mar 10, 2019 02:45
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It would be funny if Bernie just takes the lead BAM by double digits and stays there.
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Mar 10, 2019 02:45
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Just definitionally polling should never be breaking news, polling is always old by the time it's tabulated. BREAKING NEWS: Yesterday an unnamed old person said Biden is good and cool.
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Mar 10, 2019 02:47
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theblackw0lf posted:So I’m curious about something. Say Bernie Sanders becomes President. Dems get 50 senate seats and have the majority since VP is tie breaking vote. Jayapal’s Medicare for All bill passes the house. Joe Manchin says he can’t support M4A since it eliminates private insurance, but would support a version that keeps it. Also say all the pressure the grassroots puts on Manchin isn’t enough to sway him. Wouldn't almost all insurance companies, aside from some luxury plans that cater to the top 1-2%, go out of business if they had to compete with M4A? Isn't that the situation in most of Europe?
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Mar 10, 2019 03:17
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Z. Autobahn posted:Wrap it up Bernailures, Klobuchar's bringing the HEAT loving Rubio had better zingers than this.
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Mar 10, 2019 03:20
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twodot posted:Just definitionally polling should never be breaking news, polling is always old by the time it's tabulated. BREAKING NEWS: Yesterday an unnamed old person said Biden is good and cool. The DMR poll was taken March 3-6, as Bernie was beginning his triple set of Iowa rallies.
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Mar 10, 2019 03:31
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Gatts posted:Biden bubble but Sanders and Warren in the lead. Good. I take it Buttguy didn't rate? ButtEdgeEdge got 2% along with a pile of other also-rans. Edit: Also they did this poll in December and Biden is down 5 and Bernie is up 6 from then, so the trend line is good. We'll see if that continues once Biden officially announces.
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Mar 10, 2019 03:36
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I think Biden's gonna get a jump when he declares but hopefully it's not sustainable. The guy, his views, and policy is crap.
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Mar 10, 2019 03:42
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Charlz Guybon posted:Wouldn't almost all insurance companies, aside from some luxury plans that cater to the top 1-2%, go out of business if they had to compete with M4A? Health insurance companies, yes. There's more insurance than health, so hopefully my job is safe 
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Mar 10, 2019 03:58
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https://twitter.com/katherinemiller/status/1104549466210734080?s=21
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Mar 10, 2019 03:58
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HootTheOwl posted:Health insurance companies, yes. Well, yeah that's what I meant. So, I guess I don't see this theoretical Manchin demand as a deal breaker.
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Mar 10, 2019 04:47
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That would take Sanders from 25 to 33 percent.
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Mar 10, 2019 04:49
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Gatts posted:I think Biden's gonna get a jump when he declares but hopefully it's not sustainable. The guy, his views, and policy is crap. Biden is currently just this side of a stand in for Generic Democrat. In the general population he's just been Obama's buddy who occasionally makes news for things like "That's a big loving deal" and accidentally pushing the Administration to fight for gay marriage. He's been essentially silent for a decade. Suddenly having him actually talking and dropping his usually schtick on the people is going to cause massive whiplash for his approval numbers. He's not going to suddenly be hated or anything, but his poo poo wasn't even viable in 2008 when he didn't even manage to beat Bill Richardson in Iowa.
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Mar 10, 2019 07:25
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Charlz Guybon posted:Well, yeah that's what I meant. Theres no way to try and have a dual system where health insurance companies can stick around as they are and have M4A as well. You can keep private insurance that does supplemental things that aren't medically necessary, cosmetic surgery for example, but you just can't keep them as they are and say "oh, well keep your private insurance if you want". If you tried to keep them as they are, then you'd have to grind down M4A so much, just so that it can't out compete private insurance, otherwise private insurance will die anyways by virtue of being worse. If you get to the point where M4A is no better than people's current lovely insurance full of high deductibles and out of pocket expenses and network issues, then you've killed the whole point in having it. Its just fundamentally incompatible to keep health insurers as they are now, and have M4A next to it.
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Mar 10, 2019 08:29
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Charlz Guybon posted:That would take Sanders from 25 to 33 percent. Essentially a portion of the party the size of trump’s base. You gotta think that a sizeable portion of the Dems who would support Bernie Second will think about jumping ship once Biden’s murky past gets dragged into the public consciousness.
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Mar 10, 2019 08:42
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Yeah, the important thing here is that Bernie is close to his floor right now, whereas Biden is close to his ceiling.
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Mar 10, 2019 09:59
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I can't imagine a worse place for Biden to be than in a stage full of women. Given MeToo and his history with Anita Hill and his past statements on abortion - he is supremely hosed.
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Mar 10, 2019 10:19
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The Kingfish posted:Essentially a portion of the party the size of trump’s base. You gotta think that a sizeable portion of the Dems who would support Bernie Second will think about jumping ship once Biden’s murky past gets dragged into the public consciousness. Trump's "base" at this point is somewhere between 33% and 40% of registered voters. He's at like 60 % + of Republicans.
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Mar 10, 2019 10:21
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Gyges posted:
I think you're overestimating how many people have made up their minds. Polls are useful as a weathervane type thing or to watch trendlines, but even in Iowa right now I have to assume a lot of people aren't paying much attention yet, much less making up their minds. The low name ID candidates wanted to declare earlier to get their names out there before the big boys arrive (and in Warren's case I assume to try to carve out some space before the Sanders steamroller arrived), but it totally makes sense for people like Biden and Sanders to come in later. And it's not really even 'late' yet, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Swalwell or a few others dive in before the field is complete. Historically, declarations have come as early as October/November two years before and as late as a few months before Iowa. Someone like Biden, if he got serious money behind him, could probably have entered after Iowa in previous cycles. Now, with TX and CA ballots going out the same day Iowans caucus, early November is probably the final cut off if you want to be on the ballot for the Super Tuesday states. Hieronymous Alloy posted:Trump's "base" at this point is somewhere between 33% and 40% of registered voters. He's at like 60 % + of Republicans. 90ish %. Worth noting that the number of people identifying as Republican is gradually trending down in most of those polls, but those that do absolutely love them some spray tans and elaborate comb-overs.
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Mar 10, 2019 10:42
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Current swing states: AZ, NH, PA & WI I have Biden as favorite in all of those except AZ but I have Sanders & Biden as co-favorites in the primary.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:04
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Tom Guycot posted:Theres no way to try and have a dual system where health insurance companies can stick around as they are and have M4A as well. You can keep private insurance that does supplemental things that aren't medically necessary, cosmetic surgery for example, but you just can't keep them as they are and say "oh, well keep your private insurance if you want". If you tried to keep them as they are, then you'd have to grind down M4A so much, just so that it can't out compete private insurance, otherwise private insurance will die anyways by virtue of being worse. Plenty of countries do this so I'm not sure why you're saying it's impossible. Moreover, I said this would drive the vast majority of health insurance companies out of business, leaving private plans a niche market for the rich. No one said anything about keeping health insurers around as they are now.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:19
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What I'm seeing here is the 33% of Biden supporters only vote based on whose name they know
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Mar 10, 2019 13:52
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mandatory lesbian posted:What I'm seeing here is the 33% of Biden supporters only vote based on whose name they know yea Biden's literally just New JEB, his base is built on 'oh I know that name' and 'oh he's connected to a guy I like'. When he flames out Sanders is in prime position to take a chunk of his voters just due to 'hey, you know MY name too right?'
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Mar 10, 2019 14:33
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Joe Biden absolutely terrified me but I am morbidly curious how he even campaigns in 2019 considering he is still defending of his former actions instead of trying to at least pretend he actually is for good things now like Harris.
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Mar 10, 2019 15:23
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I know it’s early and the difference isn’t much but I’m kind of surprised Harris is behind Warren. I know Warren has been hitting Iowa hard but I guess I expected Harris to already be the de facto not-Bernie/not-Biden. She’s also fourth-place in the second-choice category so it’s not like she would be currently poised to rise dramatically if one of the front runners dropped out/didn’t run.
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Mar 10, 2019 15:45
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i am the bird posted:I know it’s early and the difference isn’t much but I’m kind of surprised Harris is behind Warren. I know Warren has been hitting Iowa hard but I guess I expected Harris to already be the de facto not-Bernie/not-Biden. She’s also fourth-place in the second-choice category so it’s not like she would be currently poised to rise dramatically if one of the front runners dropped out/didn’t run. Harris was always going to be running uphill. She's a candidate for president in America, she's black, and she's female. On top of that she's made a couple of significant mistakes already around how to handle her past history as a prosecutor (laughing about smoking weed in college is not a good look when you've helped lock up thousands of people for possession. etc.).
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Mar 10, 2019 15:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Harris was always going to be running uphill. She's a candidate for president in America, she's black, and she's female. I assumed she’d be in distant third behind Biden/Sanders taking into account racism/sexism/name recognition, but also taking into account that Harris has significant establishment support. Falling behind Warren is strange to me (but again, it’s one poll a year out). It’s also been said before but people are overestimating the impact of Harris’s prosecutor stuff with most primary voters. If what you’re saying is such a huge deal (electorally speaking — her actions are terrible and should be a huge deal), Biden would be in much worse shape.
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Mar 10, 2019 16:09
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I wonder if it's significant that Harris also has most of Hillary's campaign crew behind her, and we all know how effective THEY are.
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Mar 10, 2019 16:15
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i am the bird posted:
I think Biden probably has most of the ignorant / not-involved vote locked up already. If you've heard of Harris at all, you're probably involved enough to have heard of at least some of her history or her gaffes.
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Mar 10, 2019 16:21
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i am the bird posted:I assumed she’d be in distant third behind Biden/Sanders taking into account racism/sexism/name recognition, but also taking into account that Harris has significant establishment support. Falling behind Warren is strange to me (but again, it’s one poll a year out). When was the last time an interviewer asked Biden if he had ever smoked weed?
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Mar 10, 2019 16:33
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Gyges posted:Biden is currently just this side of a stand in for Generic Democrat. In the general population he's just been Obama's buddy who occasionally makes news for things like "That's a big loving deal" and accidentally pushing the Administration to fight for gay marriage. He's been essentially silent for a decade. I liken it to Hillary's stint as secretary of state. Her numbers went through the roof when she was basically out of sight, out of mind for the vast majority of voters except for the occasional "Secretary Clinton does something diplomatic" story.
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Mar 10, 2019 16:53
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https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1104765809803579397?s=21
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Mar 10, 2019 17:11
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When people say "moderate" or "centrist" they are entirely defining that based on the ideology of the upper 10% of people in this country. The entire pitch of the Democratic leadership is "the people are stupid and don't know what's best for them, only we know the proper way to lead" and they define "them" in that statement as the economy as a whole that mainly benefits the rich. It's no surprise that the party has such a hard time gaining traction as anything other than a pressure value that lets off steam for when the Republicans get a little too white supremacist and fascist. It's too bad that up until that point the Republicans are able to do insane amounts of damage to the system that no one in the DC establishment cares about since they are largely unaffected.
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Mar 10, 2019 17:22
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Few thoughts on that poll: - The MOE is almost 5% so Sanders is functionally tied with Biden, as is Hasrris with Warren - Weirdly high favorability for Harris, second only to Biden, and the only candidate to improve in it since December; Biden and Bernie both fell, and Klobuchar tanked
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Mar 10, 2019 17:32
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i am the bird posted:I know it’s early and the difference isn’t much but I’m kind of surprised Harris is behind Warren. I know Warren has been hitting Iowa hard but I guess I expected Harris to already be the de facto not-Bernie/not-Biden. She’s also fourth-place in the second-choice category so it’s not like she would be currently poised to rise dramatically if one of the front runners dropped out/didn’t run. Harris isn't gonna be strong in IA
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Mar 10, 2019 17:44
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Now this is a message I can get behind https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1104753008469049346?s=21
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Mar 10, 2019 17:49
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| # ? Jun 3, 2024 02:34 |
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https://twitter.com/GingerGibson/status/1104109815276728322
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Mar 10, 2019 18:58
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