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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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KRock posted:Sure, why the hell not And its not Andrew Gillum?
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Mar 14, 2019 01:58
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He's running. Good, makes it less likely for Biden to win. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1105992708433301504
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Mar 14, 2019 01:58
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Mince Pieface posted:Where the hell do you live that the suburbs are some insanely rich nazi breeding ground? Where I live the suburbs frequently have 50%+ POC and mostly working class, on the level of teachers, low-mid government positions, or research science, making 40-80k Not talking about those people obviously, statistically they support Bernie in the primary anyway. We're talking about the NeverBernies making above the national median
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Mar 14, 2019 02:00
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VitalSigns posted:Not talking about those people obviously, statistically they support Bernie in the primary anyway. Gotcha, sorry. I'm fortunate to not know many of that type but I've seen them around when I had to use Nextdoor to find a cat and it was all people reporting seeing a black person outside
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Mar 14, 2019 02:02
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VitalSigns posted:statistically they support Bernie in the primary anyway. ...do they? My understanding from most polling was that Biden had a slight edge with most of those groups. Bernie shines when you hone in age-wise and exclude the olds, though. VitalSigns posted:You're trying to use a D+6 result for all college educated white women as the result for college educated white women making above the median income (by definition a minority of the demographic you're citing polling for) and it doesn't work that way, especially given what we know about the relationship between income and voting tendency. I feel like we're conflating a lot of metrics in a way that's sort of missing the original point. The claim under discussion was that there exists a significant pool of voters who voted Dem in 2018 but would not vote Dem in 2020 if Bernie is on the ballot, and then there were a lot of different angles to identify who this pool was. My contention is that the Dems' strength in 2018 came from a lot of factors, obviously, but one big one was turnout by college-educated suburban women; this is also the cohort that has a lot of NeverBernie #Resistance types. If you're saying that you're only talking about the most affluent tier of those voters, I think that's a plausible argument; I still don't totally agree with it, because I think most of those voter voted R in 2018 in the first place, but it's a more plausible argument. My whole point is that the cohort as a whole will pull the lever for Bernie, however grudgingly. Z. Autobahn fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Mar 14, 2019 |
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Mar 14, 2019 02:16
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Z. Autobahn posted:...do they? My understanding from most polling was that Biden had a slight edge with most of those groups. Bernie shines when you hone in age-wise and exclude the olds, though. Beto is going to a lot of the centrist support for Biden I think. Makes it more likely that Bernie or Warren come out on top.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:18
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Beto is going to take a lot of nobody's support, nobody is going to give a single gently caress
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Mar 14, 2019 02:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:Beto is going to a lot of the centrist support for Biden I think. Makes it more likely that Bernie or Warren come out on top. Warren is DOA in any universe where Bernie is on the ballot, but yes, the more plausible centrists run, the better Bernie's odds. I was responding to the claim that those groups statistically back Bernie, though, which isn't really true unless you caveat it with "if you ignore Biden"
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Mar 14, 2019 02:21
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AlBorlantern Corps posted:Beto is going to take a lot of nobody's support, nobody is going to give a single gently caress If you assume Biden's support is going to collapse and maybe a third goes to Bernie because of name recognition, and maybe two thirds goes to other centrists, who do you think they're going to go to? Biden is the one among them that has some real charisma, so he's going to get most of them.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:22
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Beto's vanity campaign is already annoying.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:He's running. I think I hate Beto more than anyone else in the. What an uppity little power thirsty piece of poo poo. At least Harris and Biden were Senators. What the gently caress has Beto every done?
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Mar 14, 2019 02:41
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The Kingfish posted:I think I hate Beto more than anyone else in the. What an uppity little power thirsty piece of poo poo. At least Harris and Biden were Senators. What the gently caress has Beto every done? FDR, TR, Lincoln, Washington, none of them were senators, half of them were never governors. That's not why Beto shouldn't be elected president.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:45
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Beto did say he would take down the wall in El Passo. I like that. So there's that.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:47
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Silver seems to think that a brokered convention is relatively likely. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105884656484794368
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Mar 14, 2019 02:48
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Charlz Guybon posted:FDR, TR, Lincoln, Washington, none of them were senators, half of them were never governors. Washington was a war hero and the only man for the job. The Roosevelts were both governors of a major state. The Roosevelts and Lincoln were men with vision. Beto has nothing—just has a naked lust for power. I’d feel better about President Biden.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:50
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https://twitter.com/ebruenig/status/1105819569334165504?s=19 Good take.
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Mar 14, 2019 02:51
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Charlz Guybon posted:Silver seems to think that a brokered convention is relatively likely. best of luck to minneapolis on the riots that will ensue when beto ekes out the nomination over sanders and biden on the 20th ballot Charlz Guybon posted:Beto is going to a lot of the centrist support for Biden I think. Makes it more likely that Bernie or Warren come out on top. think you are assuming that most people have coherent ideological positions and don't just vote for "whoever sounds good" per morning consult, the second choice for biden voters is sanders and the second choice for sanders voters is biden QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Mar 14, 2019 |
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Mar 14, 2019 03:32
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KingNastidon posted:This is just Vox making the numbers work, but probably, yes!!!!! Even those semi-affluent suburban woman earning $70-$100k you reference [and especially so if their partner is earning that much or more given statistical differences in income]. Given the Vox chart, that puts you in the $200k+ category which is where one has to at least think about "drat, am I getting the short end of the stick here? I thought we just wanted to soak the millionaires and billionaires?" Why? People who make that much money are a very tiny portion of the population (the sort of income you're talking about is the top 5%, and probably even less when you consider that the Democratic Party is lower income on average than the Republicans), and the sort of person who makes that much money and is willing to reject a candidate because they'll increase their taxes is someone we don't want in the Democratic coalition to begin with. It's literally no different than being considered that racists might be put-off by Obama or something. And as for "how do you pay for it"; there is no reason to bring this up until absolutely necessary, and when/if it becomes necessary you can just vaguely say "by increasing taxes on high earners." Hardly anyone is going to actually care about the specifics (and nor should they, at least in the context of "should I support this").
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Mar 14, 2019 03:43
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Charlz Guybon posted:Silver seems to think that a brokered convention is relatively likely. I feel like there's two different things here. It's relatively likely that the candidate won't win on the first ballot, but that's not the same thing as a contested convention where poo poo is going down. Everyone knows a convention floor brawl is mutually-assured destruction for every candidate, which means that the delegate leader going into the convention functionally wins. Like if it's a scenario where it's X - 40%, Y - 30%, Z - 25%, Candidate X just going to win on the second ballot, regardless of who X is. Also he's ignoring that a lot of the brokering and delegated exchanges are going to happen in the run-up to the convention to ensure it goes smoothly. The only scenario where a true shitshow would go down is if the %s are super close, like, within 1%, but that's way less likely.
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Mar 14, 2019 03:56
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QuoProQuid posted:best of luck to minneapolis on the riots that will ensue when beto ekes out the nomination over sanders and biden on the 20th ballot milwaukee
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Mar 14, 2019 04:13
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Beto, instead of doing the responsible thing and run for Senate, chose instead to run for the Presidency. Never mind his policy positions, that alone is enough of a reason not to vote for him.
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Mar 14, 2019 04:20
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B.O'.R - 3rd most likely to win IA though he did see his #s drop from 10% - > 5% there. A very 90's politician.
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Mar 14, 2019 04:24
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QuoProQuid posted:best of luck to minneapolis on the riots that will ensue when beto ekes out the nomination over sanders and biden on the 20th ballot Sounding good is Beto's best quality. I accounted for that 3rd going to Bernie in my original post.
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Mar 14, 2019 04:33
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Z. Autobahn posted:I feel like there's two different things here. It's relatively likely that the candidate won't win on the first ballot, but that's not the same thing as a contested convention where poo poo is going down. Everyone knows a convention floor brawl is mutually-assured destruction for every candidate, which means that the delegate leader going into the convention functionally wins. Like if it's a scenario where it's X - 40%, Y - 30%, Z - 25%, Candidate X just going to win on the second ballot, regardless of who X is. Also he's ignoring that a lot of the brokering and delegated exchanges are going to happen in the run-up to the convention to ensure it goes smoothly. The only scenario where a true shitshow would go down is if the %s are super close, like, within 1%, but that's way less likely.
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Mar 14, 2019 04:36
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Same deal if X is Harris or Beto, and Y/Z is Bernie/Warren
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Mar 14, 2019 04:38
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Because they understand that doing so will cause genuine riots and destroy any chance anyone has of winning the general, and despite the sentiment in this thread, I don't think either side of the centrist/leftist split is dumb enough to do that. While it might feel online like the conflict between centrists and leftists is apocalyptic, in reality, while there's absolutely tension, there's also much more party unity. Bernie still campaigned his rear end off for Hillary. AOC still defers to Pelosi. Lee still endorsed Harris. On SomethingAwfulDotCom and Twitter, leftists and centrist might shiv each other and scream NeverBernie or BernieOrBust, within the actual edifice of the party, everyone understands that they're allies and is willing to work together to prevent a Trump re-election. Z. Autobahn fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Mar 14, 2019 |
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Mar 14, 2019 04:43
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Z. Autobahn posted:Because they understand that doing so will cause genuine riots and destroy any chance anyone has of winning the general, and despite the sentiment in this thread, I don't think either side of the centrist/leftist split is dumb enough to do that. Eh...the political atmosphere in this country was just as partisan in the 19th century when contested conventions were common and people just got on board with their side no matter how much they bitched about it. People are fundamentally the same. They're team players who hate the other side and they're just going to moan about it online and then 88% of Bernie supporters or whoever will pull the (D) lever again.
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Mar 14, 2019 04:50
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A strongly positive article about Bernie from... the National Review It’s actually a really good article https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/03/dont-laugh-bernie-can-win/
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Mar 14, 2019 04:50
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Charlz Guybon posted:Eh...the political atmosphere in this country was just as partisan in the 19th century when contested conventions were common and people just got on board with their side no matter how much they bitched about it. People are fundamentally the same. They're team players who hate the other side and they're just going to moan about it online and then 88% of Bernie supporters or whoever will pull the (D) lever again. You can't compare the politics of the 19th century with the mass media era. A much better point of comparison is the last time we actually had a contested convention. You know, where afterwards, Nixon won 301-191?
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Mar 14, 2019 04:55
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Beto couldnt even beat Ted loving Cruz.
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Mar 14, 2019 05:12
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Unoriginal Name posted:Beto couldnt even beat Ted loving Cruz. There are a million valid things to complain about Beto, but this isn't one of them, because no Dem alive could beat Ted Cruz in Texas in 2018.
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Mar 14, 2019 05:13
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Z. Autobahn posted:There are a million valid things to complain about Beto, but this isn't one of them, because no Dem alive could beat Ted Cruz in Texas in 2018. I guarantee he will insist he can turn Texas blue in 2020.
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Mar 14, 2019 05:14
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Unoriginal Name posted:Beto couldnt even beat Ted loving Cruz. Nixon couldn't even beat Pat Brown for governor!
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Mar 14, 2019 05:14
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VitalSigns posted:
 https://www.johndclare.net/Weimar6_Geary.htm quote:Surprisingly, the first electoral breakthroughs enjoyed by the Nazis came in Protestant rural areas, such as Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony, where peasant voters had earlier registered discontent with their traditional representatives from the DNVP (German National People's Party or Nationalists). In fact this was more than a little ironical, as Nazi propaganda had initially targeted urban workers, and the Nazi agrarian programme developed in 1928 was only in response to the expansion of support in these areas. Subsequently the constituencies with the highest proportion of Nazi voters were in Protestant farming communities; and by 1932 the stream of peasant deserters to Hitler's party had become a torrent. Many rural labourers, often influenced by the estate managers, voted for the NSDAP in July 1932. Indeed, the scale of agrarian support for the party in that election suggests the Nazis were able not only to win the support of peasants and rural labourers but also that of some large landowners. lol vitalsigns like learned how to use google book search and now he's an expert on nazi electoral politics, without considering that, yes while suburbs around hamburg voted Nazi, the strongest strength of the nazi vote was rural area and protestant small towns. Which undermines his entire argument that suburbs are the "base of fascism" or w/e. I will admit that Suburbs did exist and I should have qualified that it did not exist on the mass scale it did post-war and consequentially have lower impact electorally. I shall make the appropriate self-criticisms! Typo fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Mar 14, 2019 |
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Mar 14, 2019 05:15
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Charlz Guybon posted:Lincoln couldn't even beat Douglas! I graciously disrespect your post.
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Mar 14, 2019 05:15
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https://twitter.com/jamilsmith/status/1105999433353748480?s=21
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Mar 14, 2019 05:16
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I mean, I'll say that I think Beto has more of a chance than MOST of the B-list, like Warren, Klobuchar, Booker, etc... if Biden flames out (very likely) and the public doesn't take to Harris (increasingly likely) then he's lined up reasonably for a shot at being the Centrist Alternative. But man, that's still a lot of IFs to basically stake your entire political future on.
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Mar 14, 2019 05:17
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Beto is easily top 4 behind biden/bernie/harris
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Mar 14, 2019 05:18
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Yes! https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1105912069872848898?s=21 I so want him on the debate stage
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Mar 14, 2019 05:25
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fool_of_sound posted:what the entire gently caress lamo
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Mar 14, 2019 05:32
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