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MonsieurChoc posted:Not to make fun of death, but this is pretty bullshit. So far, the opposition has killed more people. That's a pretty bad K-D ratio for a tyrannical dictator. You are getting who you are arguing with mixed up. I have no idea who compared VZ to Khmer Rouge but it wasn't me. You keep arguing with this stuff about "but you don't have any facts" as you proceed to tell wildly embellished stories about what is going on in VZ today.
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Mar 19, 2019 05:00
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YodaTFK posted:Maybe a sociopathic troll like Mdiscordia supports intervention but most of the people in this thread don't. Most of the people posting and reading this think the most recent round of us sanctions are garbage. Sure you aren't. Sure.
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Mar 19, 2019 05:00
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I don't think I've seen anyone argue that weeklong blackouts are actually cool and good yet.quote:During blackouts, people told stories, played music, or went out and talked on the streets. It was a paradise, no TVs, smartphones, but real human contact. People cook together. During the day they’re playing board games, dominoes, and kids are having fun. https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03/18/on-the-ground-in-venezuela-vs-the-media-spectacle/
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Mar 19, 2019 06:51
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beer_war posted:I don't think I've seen anyone argue that weeklong blackouts are actually cool and good yet.  It appears they were filming for telesur, like the other "journalists" that were all invited to the country during the same time period. It's difficult to pick a single part of that that's most offensive- maybe the nutrition material. edit: I can't find stunting/wasting data for Venezuela that I'd rely on, but UNICEF lists the moderate/severe stunting and/or wasting rate at 13%- but that number seems likely to be based on a 2010 report. The rest of that dataset indicates the sourcing is terrible, so ymmv. edit: ah, based on mortality data reporting from the UN inter-agency group for child mortality estimation, most of the reporting organizations appear to have been driven out of the country 2013-14. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 07:54 on Mar 19, 2019 |
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Mar 19, 2019 07:31
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Discendo Vox posted:You're treading into self-parody territory, here. I encourage you to read some other sources (the OP, even!) and learn about the context of the subject you've waded into. How about you read one of the books/authors suggested and actually try engaging with the body of work that informs the view you oppose.
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Mar 19, 2019 08:11
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MonsieurChoc posted:Sure you aren't. Sure. I'm sure if you take time to read the last few months of discussion, never mind the last few years, you would agree that only the most unreasonable poster could conclude otherwise. I am sure that you yourself, with the degree of perspicacity you are renowned for, are not such a poster, and that you always treat other posters with courtesy and respect.
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Mar 19, 2019 08:47
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Zidrooner posted:How about you read one of the books/authors suggested and actually try engaging with the body of work that informs the view you oppose. I am certain that such a well-read poster as yourself has likewise informed themself of the prior topics extensively, if not exhaustively covered in this thread. To suggest otherwise would be a vile calumny on a superior poster.
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Mar 19, 2019 08:50
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The Economist put out its annual cost-of-living-per-city table, and some good news for Venezuela! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/where-are-the-worlds-most-expensive-cities/10911554 (primary source, requires registration: https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=WCOL2019 ) Caracas is the world's cheapest city to live in, crushing Aleppo for the top spot (home rent/ownership costs are not counted)! I'm actually kind of surprised Paris has the top spot, as it's really not anywhere close to as expensive as Zurich for going out, food, or transportation, which makes me wonder about their basket of goods, but in any case I imagine it's not terribly off. The report also mentions Venezuela reaching nearly 1,000,000% inflation last year -- and this is based on the price of goods like coffee and etc, not the exchange rate -- so I wonder wtf that guy was talking about in this thread about the IMF vastly overestimating Venezuela's inflation with an inflammatory exaggerated number. E: I guess he was talking about this guy, https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/01/01/venezuelas-hyperinflation-hits-80000-per-year-in-2018/#4fd911dc4572 whose article seems like he is way off of everyone else's calculations? He's a legit economist and not at all a shill for Maduro, but it's weird that he calculated something 10x less than the Economist. Also for instance, Data Drum -- previously Venezuela Econ -- lists that the AN reported approximately 833,000% annual inflation on 31 Oct 2018. https://www.datadrum.com/main.php?package=VE#inf_annual (registration required, paywall but maybe 30 days free?). I know this is not how inflation is calculated, but even strictly based on conversion to USD, the inflation rate was right on 300,000% in 2018 (Jan 2018: 1 soverign bolivar = 1 USD; Jan 2019: 3000 soverign bolivar = 1 USD) E2: I think it may be because Steve Hanke applied the inflation rate according to PPP? PPP is all hosed up in Venezuela. Although the Economist's is also some sort of PPP, but maybe they only use market value, or possibly one includes gasoline prices and the other doesn't? In any case 100,000% or 1,000,000% inflation is pretty hosed for anyone who's not rich. Ironically the rich and upper-middle-class do just fine in periods of hyperinflation. Saladman fucked around with this message at 10:04 on Mar 19, 2019 |
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Mar 19, 2019 09:52
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Saladman posted:The Economist put out its annual cost-of-living-per-city table, and some good news for Venezuela! Steve Hanke works for the Cato institute,but the mathematical framework in his work is usually solid.let me say that again, the goddamn Cato institute differs from the IMF calculations by a order of magnitude. He goes into more detail here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2018/07/31/imf-produces-another-bogus-venezuela-inflation-forecast/#4b5fc5c67dc8 I was the moron in this thread that said that maybe we should start looking at economic indicators with some real framework behind them,instead of pulling numbers out of their rear end like the IMF does here that coincidently is the one quoted in every major news outlet.88,000% Inflation is still staggering,Venezuela economy is still broken as gently caress, maybe people can start to devise solutions to unfuck it using a factual basis.
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Mar 19, 2019 12:00
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MonsieurChoc posted:I mean, Pinochet turned a stadium into a concentration and just started brutally slaughtering people to solidify power. Pinochet is not the Venezuelan opposition. quote:If he was really as bad as you say, he's send his death squad after the opposition protests. And yet they keep happening! And they keep not being slaughtered! "But what about all the political opponents he HASN'T gunned down in the street? Checkmate, freedomailures."
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Mar 19, 2019 12:15
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William Blum, a propagandist who wrote "MORE LIKE AMERIKKKA" on a chalkboard 10000 times , did no new research on anything he wrote about, never visited Venezuela, and died before anything we're talking about in this thread happened: You MUST READ this person and pass a test on him before your opinions may be considered. Reporting from independent, even left-leaning journalists about what is actually happening in Venezuela: Squalid posted:I couldn't be assed to click on any of those links
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Mar 19, 2019 12:17
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I do remember the scholarship on the history of Kuwait in the Gulf War chapter of Killing Hope being very sloppy, which gave me significantly reduced faith in the rest of the book.
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Mar 19, 2019 12:20
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M. Discordia posted:William Blum, a propagandist who wrote "MORE LIKE AMERIKKKA" on a chalkboard 10000 times quote:did no new research on anything he wrote about, never visited Venezuela,and died before anything we're talking about in this thread happened: There were people who predicted that Iraq and Libya would have dire consequences for their people while the "credible" liberal media was pushing for war, I wonder how they were able to do that? Were they loving clairvoyant? If you would like to contest Blum's credibility please cite sources or give concrete examples rather than relying on this intellectually dishonest "he's a tankie" shtick. quote:Reporting from independent, even left-leaning journalists about what is actually happening in Venezuela: You mean from media outlets subordinate to the interests of their rich shareholders? Whose track record on foreign policy is demonstrably garbage? Asking to uncritically trust these sources is every bit as ridiculous as asking to trust teleSur, RT or Al Jazeera
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Mar 19, 2019 13:18
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M. Discordia posted:Pinochet is not the Venezuelan opposition. Kinda, actually. The whole situation is the same playbook they used against Allende back in the day, including "making the economy scream". The big difference is that Guaido doesn't have the support of anyone inside Venezuela while Pinochet had the support of the army.
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Mar 19, 2019 14:41
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Guaido’s goons have seized the means of product...the means of diplomacy with the United States
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Mar 19, 2019 14:43
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Zidrooner posted:How about you read one of the books/authors suggested and actually try engaging with the body of work that informs the view you oppose. 
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Mar 19, 2019 15:20
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MonsieurChoc posted:Kinda, actually. The whole situation is the same playbook they used against Allende back in the day, including "making the economy scream". The country hadn't collapsed to anywhere near the same degree; Allende hadn't been in power nearly as long as Chavez-Maduro's tenure; Allende was flagrantly ignoring directions from superior courts and declaring judicial views would only be given force to if the executive government agreed with what court decision said (which isn't to say Maduro's court endorsement is particularly legitimate)... There were some significant distinctions even if you can see some resemblances. But you say 'playbook' so the distinctions may be orthogonal to your argument here. Neurosis fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Mar 19, 2019 |
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Mar 19, 2019 15:35
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MonsieurChoc posted:Pinochet had the support of the army. And who has the support of the army in Venezuela?
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Mar 19, 2019 18:52
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Neurosis posted:Allende was flagrantly ignoring directions from superior courts and declaring judicial views would only be given force to if the executive government agreed with what court decision said Uh, are you saying this justified Allende being couped? Like, clearly as Maduro shows, the opinion of the court is not the be-all end-all of the matter.
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Mar 19, 2019 19:14
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Speaking of the military: 1,000 Venezuelan security forces crossed border since February, Colombian authorities say And speaking of Colombia: As Venezuela crisis deepens, U.S. sharpens focus on Colombia rebel threat Good article here that looks at some of the regional tensions the conflict has generated. I'm tempted to quote all of it, but the key takeaway is that Colombian rebel groups like FARC are operating inside Venezuela with impunity with tacit acceptance from Venezuelan officials, and that while literally nobody wants the conflict to escalate into military action, Maduro may be intentionally courting FARC's favor to call on their men and guerilla experience if the US does invade.
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Mar 19, 2019 19:33
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Hopefully the US doesn’t attempt an invasion of venezuela, despite their puppet guaido agitating for one
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Mar 19, 2019 21:34
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I don’t have much hope they won’t though since they cut all diplomatic ties with the venezuelan government
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Mar 19, 2019 21:37
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I've said it before in the thread, but I'd rate the chances of an Iraq-style invasion as infinitesimal for the following reasons: -Nobody in the region wants a straight-up war, and Colombia isn't going to let the US use their soil and airbases as a staging area for a horrifying boondoggle they don't want. -Trump has advocated for war in the past, but he is at heart a chickenshit coward who doesn't want to risk seeing his name plastered across an unsuccessful war people hate. -The actual war that Bolton and Company plus the KSA want is against Iran, and Venezuela is a distraction from that. A war is technically possible, I guess, but for it to go down Maduro would have to do something insane to escalate the situation first, like firing artillery into Colombia or something like that. Otherwise, there's just not enough support either within the US government or abroad to support an invasion, especially when there's a good chance they can just sit on their hands and wait Maduro out.
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Mar 19, 2019 21:56
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Acebuckeye13 posted:. Not gonna argue with the rest, since while I do not necessarily agree with the entirety of it it is mostly a matter of perspective and prima facie agreeable, but I do want to point out that the reasoning behind the last few US interventions can be easily summarized with superior stabat lupus. There is really no point in debating what Maduro will or will not do, because the US deciding to go to war is very much not a matter in his hands.
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Mar 19, 2019 22:08
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Acebuckeye13 posted:A war is technically possible, I guess, but for it to go down Maduro would have to do something insane to escalate the situation first, like firing artillery into Colombia or something like that. Otherwise, there's just not enough support either within the US government or abroad to support an invasion, especially when there's a good chance they can just sit on their hands and wait Maduro out. like mortons said, there will be a war regardless of what maduro does if the US wants it. if the US wants a war it will manufacture consent (and the US has started doing that with stuff like the aid caravan they burned)
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Mar 19, 2019 23:31
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Unless the US Military has formed a new corps of sorcerers an Iraq-style invasion of Venezuela is something that would require really apparent military buildup beyond sending some dudes to Colombia. Yes, even for the US, because invading places is hard even when they're close and you have overwhelming military supremacy.
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Mar 19, 2019 23:41
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That's true, but isn't it better to resist building momentum before it gets too the point of "invasion force on the border"
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Mar 19, 2019 23:46
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I think pointing out the infeasibility of an Iraq-style invasion is besides the point. At this point it seems that Maduro is not going to lose further support absent further action. Do you guys truly think Abrams, Bolton et al are going to just throw up their hands and call it quits? Nah, if there's one thing america hates even more than socialists, its losing. If you thought this was economic warfare so far, hoe nelly, we're gonna see just how much we can prevent the flow of goods to and from the borders of venezuela absent a physical blockade (and i'm not 100% on that part) Forget an invasion. Hell, forget the CIA smuggling in weapons and arming an insurgency. The US has an incredible breadth of weapons available to put the screws on venezuela, and the people that are going to feel the pain the most are the average venezuelan citizen 
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Mar 19, 2019 23:48
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brugroffil posted:That's true, but isn't it better to resist building momentum before it gets too the point of "invasion force on the border" This, plus it's good to show widespread resistance to any U.S. intervention in Venezuela, invasion or otherwise.
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Mar 19, 2019 23:50
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Majorian posted:This, plus it's good to show widespread resistance to any U.S. intervention in Venezuela, invasion or otherwise. So what about Guaido? Do you want the US to keep supporting an illegitimate dictator who usurped the national assembly, by allowing PSUV oil money from the US refineries to support Maduro's government? The National Assembly is the more legitimate governing body in Venezuela.
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Mar 20, 2019 00:11
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Pharohman777 posted:So what about Guaido? Do you want the US to keep supporting an illegitimate dictator who usurped the national assembly, by allowing PSUV oil money from the US refineries to support Maduro's government? In principle, I don't, but A, I don't think turning off that tap would be beneficial to most Venezuelans, and B, it's more than a little sketchy to pretend like Maduro is so bad that we can't do business with him, but Saudi Arabia (or any number of awful regimes that we prop up) isn't. And I think pretending like Guaido is the legitimate leader of Venezuela is more than a little presumptuous at this point.
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Mar 20, 2019 00:24
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Pharohman777 posted:So what about Guaido? Do you want the US to keep supporting an illegitimate dictator who usurped the national assembly, by allowing PSUV oil money from the US refineries to support Maduro's government? The National Assembly is the more legitimate governing body in Venezuela. more to the point, let's say, sure, guiado is the legitimate leader and maduro has subverted the will of the state to cling to power. What are we gonna do about that? Clearly he has enough support amongst the military that paralyzing the economic operations of the state is insufficient to remove him, so where do we go from there? Like that's the real problem. I truly believe that Maduro has subverted the political process so much that he is no longer a legitimate ruler (i'm less sure that Guaido is the legitimate alternative though). But merely stating that isn't going to change things, and sanctions have proven insufficient to dislodge him. What's left? Perhaps multi-lateral talks would be sufficient to negotiate a transfer of power. But ha-loving-ha if you think Trump is going to do such a thing. At this point, any action that the US takes that is sufficient to remove Maduro is going to cause so much more harm to the populace than the status quo. And I want to make clear, I truly am sympathetic with the line of thought that things have gotten so bad that any action is better than the status quo. I even believed that to some extent at the start of all this. But at this point, I don't believe that anymore. If Maduro goes, its going to be at the cost of so many lives.
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Mar 20, 2019 00:41
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Pharohman777 posted:So what about Guaido? Do you want the US to keep supporting an illegitimate dictator who usurped the national assembly, by allowing PSUV oil money from the US refineries to support Maduro's government? The National Assembly is the more legitimate governing body in Venezuela. A us funded and backed puppet like guaido is not legitimate at all
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Mar 20, 2019 01:22
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A big flaming stink posted:more to the point, let's say, sure, guiado is the legitimate leader and maduro has subverted the will of the state to cling to power. What are we gonna do about that? Clearly he has enough support amongst the military that paralyzing the economic operations of the state is insufficient to remove him, so where do we go from there? yeah I'm not sure where I stand in terms of what actually should be done by President Pelosi after simultaneously impeaching Trump and Pence we've already exceeded the level of acceptable coercion and it's not working yet but maybe just given more time, putting the rest of Latin America in charge of the process might make Maduro crack, especially coupled with an "alright fine we'll let you and your top shitheads flee with a jillion dollars as long as it means you're no longer in power"
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Mar 20, 2019 01:42
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Majorian posted:In principle, I don't, but A, I don't think turning off that tap would be beneficial to most Venezuelans, and B, it's more than a little sketchy to pretend like Maduro is so bad that we can't do business with him, but Saudi Arabia (or any number of awful regimes that we prop up) isn't. Who, in your opinion, is the legitimate leader of Venezuela?
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Mar 20, 2019 01:59
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Warbadger posted:Who, in your opinion, is the legitimate leader of Venezuela? At this point, I don't really think there is one.
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Mar 20, 2019 02:09
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Majorian posted:At this point, I don't really think there is one. Fair enough.
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Mar 20, 2019 02:12
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Warbadger posted:Who, in your opinion, is the legitimate leader of Venezuela? It’s probably it’s democratically elected leader, Maduro, and not Venezuelan Chalabi. Especially since Guaido has no support outside foreign facists, even after staging the truck fire false flag and coordinating with the US to destroy the Venezuelan state.
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Mar 20, 2019 03:24
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Pharohman777 posted:So what about Guaido? Do you want the US to keep supporting an illegitimate dictator who usurped the national assembly, by allowing PSUV oil money from the US refineries to support Maduro's government? The National Assembly is the more legitimate governing body in Venezuela. It would be better for all involved if NYC Guaido Voice jsut shuffled offscreen and never came back.
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Mar 20, 2019 05:49
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MonsieurChoc posted:It would be better for all involved if NYC Guaido Voice jsut shuffled offscreen and never came back. As the head of the National Assembly, he is required by the Constitution to step in as interim President in the current situation. I'm assuming you were unaware of that.
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Mar 20, 2019 07:30
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