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Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
A couple of more details on the events at the National Assembly today:
  • El Nacional has a couple of pictures here of some of the colectivos (the men in civilian clothing; one of them has a Venezuelan flag arm patch) who were at the National Assembly today. Note that they're intermingling with National Guard soldiers. This intermingling has been observed during colectivo attacks against anti-government protesters by organizations like Amnesty International.
  • There's a video recorded by what I think was a National Assembly deputy as he was driving out of the legislature today. The video shows colectivo members kicking the car as it drives past them, and someone throws some kind of small explosive device (likely some kind of firework) at the car. Juan Guaido was allegedly in the vehicle that was attacked as per the tweet, but you don't see him in the video so we can't be certain of that claim based purely on the video:

    https://twitter.com/hsiciliano/status/1110630543195103232

It's worth stressing that this is not the first colectivo action against the National Assembly ever, but it is the first since Maduro called on the colectivos to "defend the country's territorial peace" during a televised address that aired on March 15. He makes the comments in this video, starting at 0:42:

quote:

This messages goes out to the foundations of the popular forces, the colectivos, the UBCh [a PSUV militia]. Attention, colectivos! Attention, UBch! They [the opposition] are moving dollars around there [sic]. Let's go. One thousand ears, one thousand eyes, one thousand hands to defend the country's territorial peace. Be focused. Be focused on the civil-military union to continue to guarantee peace...

Maduro made a similar appeal directly to the colectivos during another televised address, this one in 2014 when the anti-government protests of that year were flaring. In that address, Maduro called on the colectivos to "put out" the fires (protests) wherever they "flare up" (around 0:20 in the video):

quote:

I've called on the UBCh, the communal councils, the communes, the colectivos: if you see a little fire flare up, put it out. I'm making that call right now, during this event.

Maduro doesn't often mention the colectivos directly in this way for obvious reasons. A huge part of their usefulness to the government is the fact that they allow for a kind of plausible deniability. The government can distance itself from a colectivo armado that attacks protesters in a way that it isn't able to do if the attack is carried out by uniformed police, for example.

Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Mar 27, 2019

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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
well if they didn't want to be attacked by the socialist base, maybe they shouldn't have schemed and incited against the country and the Revolution

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Reports of looting in Maracaibo. Any confirmation?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/26/venezuela-maracaibo-power-electricity-looting

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
Lovely.



https://twitter.com/TVVnoticias/status/1105101682768261125

Laphroaig
Feb 6, 2004

Drinking Smoke
Dinosaur Gum

Condiv posted:

i'm not suggesting that they don't exist chuck boone. i'm questioning the function you've ascribed to them

https://www.amnestyusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Venezuela-Nights-of-Terror-Briefing-ENG.pdf

Read the report.

quote:

Since 2014, Amnesty International has documented the existence and actions of groups of armed pro-government supporters who are tolerated or supported by the authorities.28 In Venezuela these groups are known as "colectivos armados" (armed collectives).

In some cases, the raids documented by Amnesty International involved attacks on communities by armed civilians who, acting with the consent of the state authorities, used violence as a means of intimidation, riding motorcycles with their weapons visible and sometimes opening fire and shouting pro-government slogans such as "we're not going to let you protest [guarimbear]".29

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/04/venezuela-inagotable-ciclo-de-violencia-y-represion-amenaza-vida-de-la-poblacion/

quote:

On the eve of today’s protests, the government activated the "Plan Zamora", a security mechanism calling for the deployment civilians alongside police and military forces to “preserve public order”.

“The ‘Plan Zamora’ calls on civilians to engage in an illegitimate use of force. This is a clear recipe for disaster. This is especially concerning given the repeated reports of abuses at the hands of armed civilian groups,” said Erika Guevara-Rosas.

https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/AMR5312392015ENGLISH.pdf


Choice bits are National Guardsmen going into the homes of the poor, firing guns down the hallways, and shouting ""COME ON OUT YOU BLOODY GUARIMBEROS...WE'LL RAPE THE LOT OF YOU" in response to protesters. Maybe the use of threats of sexual violence will wake you all up, since the actual violence and murders doesn't seem to phase you at all? These people are not your comrades, they are not socialists or revolutionaries, they are dangerous, violent thugs enabled by a political organization desperate to hold unto power.

M. Discordia
Apr 30, 2003

by Smythe
Amnesty International is a known tool of the US Army, just like Human Rights Watch

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
That doesn't change the fact that Maduro now and in the past has publicly told Colectivos to stamp out protests.

:qq: all you want, but the Colectivos are one of the most vile tools in Venezuelan governments arsenal.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
I think M. Discordia is being sarcastic.

Private Witt
Feb 21, 2019
Last night, Delcy said it was another EMP attack that brought down Guri. Today, Maduro switched stories to a sniper attack and a fire.

https://twitter.com/AlexVasquezS/status/1111079479743602689

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/1111062941762240512

and

https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1111059475673296897

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


A rifle attack on a substation could be highly effective, Google Metcalf for a real world incident in the US that nearly took silicon valley offline.

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe

brugroffil posted:

A rifle attack on a substation could be highly effective, Google Metcalf for a real world incident in the US that nearly took silicon valley offline.

the difference being if it actually took place maduro could just have pictures taken of the shot substation displayed as evidence

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Sure, and you could even fake that pretty easily after the fact by putting a few rounds into some equipment and saying "see!"

But the post above seemed to be treating the very idea as absurd, just like the idea of a cyber attack on critical infrastructure was mocked by some.

Tom Guycot
Oct 15, 2008

Chief of Governors


Party Plane Jones posted:

the difference being if it actually took place maduro could just have pictures taken of the shot substation displayed as evidence


What would be the point? If Chris Kyle was secretly still alive and a CIA asset flown into venezuela to shoot at some electrical substation, and maduro held up something shot as proof, the narrative would then be "Yeah... sure, like he didn't just have one of his goons shoot a piece of equipment after the fact :rolleyes:".

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Tom Guycot posted:

What would be the point? If Chris Kyle was secretly still alive and a CIA asset flown into venezuela to shoot at some electrical substation, and maduro held up something shot as proof, the narrative would then be "Yeah... sure, like he didn't just have one of his goons shoot a piece of equipment after the fact :rolleyes:".

The CIA and Trump department aren't the only ones creating narratives. The Maduro administration has clearly put a fair amount of work into making the argument that power outages are the result of sabotage the the economic war, not the result of shortages (at least this was their line up to 2017, not sure about today) or fundamental problems in how energy infrastructure was maintained and managed. IF they have evidence of sabotage you'd be interested in seeing it right? RT needs something to fill up column space, might as well give them what you got.

There is no single narrative. There are many competing narratives all jostling for space in the jungian collective unconscious. To make sense of events you'll have to start deconstructing them.

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni
A couple of pages ago someone brought up the topic of why colectivos would still be loyal to the Maduro government even throughout the economic collapse. That question has two simple answers:

- It makes sense the government would prioritize providing economic support to armed groups since lacking charisma and enough money to keep everyone happy and well-fed, they'll focus on the forces that could depose them (i.e. the people with guns).
- General anarchy favors irregular armed groups such as the colectivos and other large gangs since it leaves a vacuum of power they can fill to basically govern wide swaths of the country.

Point number two is particularly interesting since we tend to focus the most on what happens in Caracas and other large cities due to the nature of this thread. However, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that large parts of Venezuela are basically the wild west nowadays. The Maduro government, right now, is incapable of maintaining most of the country fed or even give them access to basic services such as running water and electricity. They prioritize the largest cities in the country which leaves the rest of people off to fend for themselves. In the inner country, gangs are basically the law at this moment. Colectivos and large gangs understand that under a change of government, they wouldn't be allowed to operate with the impunity they do now.

An accurate picture of the Maduro government nowadays would be to say it's a collection of criminal enterprises that stay in line to make sure they can loot as much of the country as possible. Maduro himself is just a figurehead who's being kept in his seat to avoid rocking the boat.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Labradoodle posted:

A couple of pages ago someone brought up the topic of why colectivos would still be loyal to the Maduro government even throughout the economic collapse. That question has two simple answers:

- It makes sense the government would prioritize providing economic support to armed groups since lacking charisma and enough money to keep everyone happy and well-fed, they'll focus on the forces that could depose them (i.e. the people with guns).
- General anarchy favors irregular armed groups such as the colectivos and other large gangs since it leaves a vacuum of power they can fill to basically govern wide swaths of the country.

Point number two is particularly interesting since we tend to focus the most on what happens in Caracas and other large cities due to the nature of this thread. However, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that large parts of Venezuela are basically the wild west nowadays. The Maduro government, right now, is incapable of maintaining most of the country fed or even give them access to basic services such as running water and electricity. They prioritize the largest cities in the country which leaves the rest of people off to fend for themselves. In the inner country, gangs are basically the law at this moment. Colectivos and large gangs understand that under a change of government, they wouldn't be allowed to operate with the impunity they do now.

An accurate picture of the Maduro government nowadays would be to say it's a collection of criminal enterprises that stay in line to make sure they can loot as much of the country as possible. Maduro himself is just a figurehead who's being kept in his seat to avoid rocking the boat.

I'm not trying to call you out or anything, but why would colectivos (or gangs, for that matter) care about controlling wide swaths of the country if there is no economic activity to be had in it?

Labradoodle
Nov 24, 2011

Crax daubentoni

A big flaming stink posted:

I'm not trying to call you out or anything, but why would colectivos (or gangs, for that matter) care about controlling wide swaths of the country if there is no economic activity to be had in it?

In towns around the Amazonas, for example, gangs can make a killing by controlling gold mining, which is out of control right now. A lot of small towns around the mining areas now basically function around gold and it has replaced the national currency. Even in less-favored areas, though, you still have money exchanging hands because people find a way to survive. That means gangs make a living out of extorting what little business still manage to function, robbing people, kidnapping, trafficking in price-controlled goods, etc. That's without getting into drug trafficking, which is a major source of business along the border, so you have plenty of opportunities to make money, even in a country as hosed over as Venezuela, particularly because the military is in on all of it.

The best example I can give of just how lawless Venezuela is nowadays are its highways. These days, it's common for buses to get hijacked all along Venezuela, both by gangs and the military, to the point where a lot of lines have ceased to function or don't offer trips during the night. If it´s not even safe to travel from point A to point B, you can imagine just how hosed up things are.

Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Mar 28, 2019

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

A big flaming stink posted:

I'm not trying to call you out or anything, but why would colectivos (or gangs, for that matter) care about controlling wide swaths of the country if there is no economic activity to be had in it?

to add to what labradoodle said, colectivos are also incentivized to support the government because they are incorporated into programs like the CLAP distribution. On the ground it is often (usually?) colectivos in charge of delivering the boxes. This insures that they get first dibs if there are shortages and also provides opportunities for graft and exploitation of the program.

In Chavez's time there were a huge variety of social programs and expenditures that worked through and with colectivos. Not sure how many of those missions are still active, most probably just vanished when the money ran out. As far as I can tell there are still a number of colectivos who get preferential treatment or government money in exchange for participating in certain programs or assisting the PSUV on various projects. An example would be the group who took over the bakery profiled in that Guardian video.

Also though there are no longer reliable statistics the best estimates suggest the economic collapse has decreased crime. You can't hijack a car if its broken down for lack of spare parts, and people who aren't working can't pay ransoms. I was reading some reuters article that quoted an ex-criminal who complained muggers these days can't even afford handguns, that's how bad its got.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Is there, like, any problem in Venezuela that the PSUV assumes responsibility for?

- Electrical grid collapsing? It's snipers. And Hackers. And EM devices. And people armed with explosives. Haven't you seen Die Hard 4?

- Hyperinflation? Economic warfare. Also, inflation doesn't exist.

- Skyrocketing murder rate? Uh, I dunno, Colombian paramilitaries? Yeah, let's go with that.

- Rampant human rights abuses? Yeah, that's fake news, all those so-called "human rights" organizations are actually fascists.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Party Plane Jones posted:

the difference being if it actually took place maduro could just have pictures taken of the shot substation displayed as evidence

Give him a little time to think of it, just wait.

Furia
Jul 26, 2015

Grimey Drawer
Remember when the government put out a grainy video of a guy in a white hood as proof that Guaidó was secretly working dor them?

Just something to think about when the government explains why a vital piece of infrastructure failed (through no fault of their own) and then change their story to a completely different explenation of why a vital piece of infrastructure failed (also through no fault of their own)

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial

beer_war posted:

Is there, like, any problem in Venezuela that the PSUV assumes responsibility for?

- Electrical grid collapsing? It's snipers. And Hackers. And EM devices. And people armed with explosives. Haven't you seen Die Hard 4?

- Hyperinflation? Economic warfare. Also, inflation doesn't exist.

- Skyrocketing murder rate? Uh, I dunno, Colombian paramilitaries? Yeah, let's go with that.

- Rampant human rights abuses? Yeah, that's fake news, all those so-called "human rights" organizations are actually fascists.

I can count with one hand the times that I remember Maduro approaching something like a claim of responsibility, and it's usually something fairly vague. In 2015 he said that "we made mistakes" and then mentioned "the bureaucracy, the corruption that enveloped revolutionary policies", but that's about as far as he's ever gone. He's never said something like "So-and-so stole billions of dollars through the Ministry of Electrical energy and that's why X happened", or "the reason why there's no food or medicine is because people with connections to our government stole X billions destined for imports through the corrupt currency exchange system that we created".

Private Witt
Feb 21, 2019

brugroffil posted:

Sure, and you could even fake that pretty easily after the fact by putting a few rounds into some equipment and saying "see!"

But the post above seemed to be treating the very idea as absurd, just like the idea of a cyber attack on critical infrastructure was mocked by some.

I am treating as absurd: (1) the idea that their story changes depending on who you talk to within the government and (2) the idea that the opposition is accused of engaging in movie-style attacks (EMPs, hacking, a sniper) with ZERO evidence.

But yes, thanks for illuminating with "well, actually" precision that it is possible. Truly traiblazing posts that are very needed.

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
It’s sure good to be part of the inner party. I heard the bread ration increased this month to 200g!

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Private Witt posted:

I am treating as absurd: (1) the idea that their story changes depending on who you talk to within the government and (2) the idea that the opposition is accused of engaging in movie-style attacks (EMPs, hacking, a sniper) with ZERO evidence.

But yes, thanks for illuminating with "well, actually" precision that it is possible. Truly traiblazing posts that are very needed.

A sniper attack isn't movie style it has literally happened in the US already, thank you for proving my point

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
This sort of "well it COULD have been X..." sort of thing reminds me of something I read once about what sort of theories one can put to a jury up north here in Canada.

quote:

"The basic requirement of an evidential foundation for defences gives rise to two well-established principles.

"First, a trial judge must put to the jury all defences that arise on the facts, whether or not they have been specifically raised by an accused. Where there is an air of reality to a defence, it should go to the jury.

"Second, a trial judge has a positive duty to keep from the jury defences lacking an evidential foundation. A defence that lacks an air of reality should be kept from the jury.

So yeah, sure, it COULD have been a sniper, or maybe a meteorite or an escaped rhinoceros from the local zoo.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

brugroffil posted:

A rifle attack on a substation could be highly effective, Google Metcalf for a real world incident in the US that nearly took silicon valley offline.

Uh, yeah. A *team* of snipers managed to achieve... nothing even vaguely significant. Some local blackouts.

quote:

While some nearby neighborhoods temporarily lost power, “the big users weren’t even aware Metcalf had happened”, according to an expert from the Electric Power Research Institute.

Source: Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
CIA has good snipers. I watched a movie with marky mark called Sniper.

Gozinbulx
Feb 19, 2004

Shaocaholica posted:

CIA has good snipers. I watched a movie with marky mark called Sniper.

It's called Shooter bro smfh

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Rust Martialis posted:

Uh, yeah. A *team* of snipers managed to achieve... nothing even vaguely significant. Some local blackouts.


Source: Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

It was a couple of dudes with ar-15's who nearly caused a major cascade event in a much more resilient electrical grid.

If a similar attack was instead targeted at the main switchyard for the main power plant for an entire country, the likelihood of success would be much greater.

Private Witt
Feb 21, 2019

brugroffil posted:

A sniper attack isn't movie style it has literally happened in the US already, thank you for proving my point

Yes, for four posts in a row, you have successfully established that a sniper attack is possible. NOBODY is disagreeing with you.

But when we exit the realm of POSSIBLE and enter the realm of whether something is PROBABLE, here your spamming reminders that you once read a Wikipedia article must grapple with the reality of serial fabulists changing their story from one day (EMP) to the next (sniper), while offering zero proof of anything. To add on to that, we also do not have proof of the previous explanations for the blackout (hacking and EMPs).

Maduro's imaginative lies, much like the lies of many other strongmen and would-be strongmen around the world including Trump, rely on dumbass supporters explaining them away, while ignoring everything else that suggests it is false or almost certainly false. So if you're not here to "well, actually" us to support Maduro, you sure are doing the exact same posting that a Maduro supporter would be doing.

Chuck Boone
Feb 12, 2009

El Turpial
Does the fact that the government first said that this was another EMP attack and now suddenly it turns out it was a sniper factor in at all into this discussion, or are we just playing "Are the lies that the government tell us physically possible or not" again?

EDIT: Beaten!

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there
en ataque Empanada Muy Pesada

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Maybe they fired an EMP bullet.

Rust Martialis posted:

en ataque Empanada Muy Pesada

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Chuck Boone posted:

Does the fact that the government first said that this was another EMP attack and now suddenly it turns out it was a sniper factor in at all into this discussion, or are we just playing "Are the lies that the government tell us physically possible or not" again?

EDIT: Beaten!

I hate attacking people on their appearance (albeit not so much on their active and easily-changed choices) and god drat, the color of lipstick that she often uses is so off it's like she's completely color blind. I have never in my entire life seen someone wear bright pink lipstick besides her.





She doesn't seem to wear it as often as I imagined in my mind, I kind of thought every photo of her on Google Image search would be like that, but I guess those are only the ones that I remember because it's so distinctive.

I lived with a colorblind guy for several years, and it reminds me of how he would occasionally go out with awful combinations of greens and reds without realizing it (generally he was quite natty).

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Noshtane
Nov 22, 2007

The fish itself incites to deeds of hunger
So Venezuela is plagued by hacker snipers who fire EMP bullets at critical infrastructure? I'm starting to think that Maduro has confused reality with his Cyberpunk 2020 campaign.

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E

Gozinbulx posted:

It's called Shooter bro smfh

Nah we both got it wrong it was Enemy at the Gates and it wasn't the CIA or Marky mark it was the KGB and Ewan McGregor.

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


Private Witt posted:

Yes, for four posts in a row, you have successfully established that a sniper attack is possible. NOBODY is disagreeing with you.

But when we exit the realm of POSSIBLE and enter the realm of whether something is PROBABLE, here your spamming reminders that you once read a Wikipedia article must grapple with the reality of serial fabulists changing their story from one day (EMP) to the next (sniper), while offering zero proof of anything. To add on to that, we also do not have proof of the previous explanations for the blackout (hacking and EMPs).

Maduro's imaginative lies, much like the lies of many other strongmen and would-be strongmen around the world including Trump, rely on dumbass supporters explaining them away, while ignoring everything else that suggests it is false or almost certainly false. So if you're not here to "well, actually" us to support Maduro, you sure are doing the exact same posting that a Maduro supporter would be doing.

You dismissively called it "movie style." I'm glad you now admit that it's a very feasible and realistic threat.

The same sort of ignorantly dismissive tone was taken for the idea of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and even the idea that infrastructure would be targeted to help create instability.

As I said before, I'm particularly annoyed at the ignorance surrounding threats to critical infrastructure because it's literally my day job. I'm not the dude citing Wikipedia on this.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

'They might doubt the regime's evidence so the regime just won't bother providing any!' sure is a take.

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Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E

brugroffil posted:

You dismissively called it "movie style." I'm glad you now admit that it's a very feasible and realistic threat.

The same sort of ignorantly dismissive tone was taken for the idea of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and even the idea that infrastructure would be targeted to help create instability.

As I said before, I'm particularly annoyed at the ignorance surrounding threats to critical infrastructure because it's literally my day job. I'm not the dude citing Wikipedia on this.

Are you trying to tell us you're the guy that hacked the power plant(under duress of course)? Do you need help getting out? Where are they holding you?

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