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Ardennes
May 12, 2002
It is a mixed bag, if not moderately negative for them, but at the same time, it is a fair result for the AKP considering the state of the economy (which is really quite bad).

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Apr 2, 2019

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Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009
Bouteflika has resigned.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47795108

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

WHAT. WHAT. WHAT.

WHAT NOW?

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

:toot:

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Grouchio posted:

WHAT. WHAT. WHAT.

WHAT NOW?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
:stare:

https://mobile.twitter.com/laseptiemewilay/status/1113142442654564352

Said is an rear end in a top hat who has been reported as Bouteflika's heir apparent for years.

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."
The ole switcharoo then.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Middle East Thread: Bouteflika Out, Everything Is Great Forever

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1113198719158165505

:unsmith:

Cynicus
May 1, 2008


owling furies.


some hope yet. :unsmith:

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna
It's a coup by a regime general. I'm skeptical, but I hope everything works out.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Zurakara posted:

It's a coup by a regime general. I'm skeptical, but I hope everything works out.

Yeah it's hard to see the military replacing a living corpse with someone else as an actual win for the people. It's even harder to see the Algerian military willingly giving up power without fighting another bloody civil war.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Apr 3, 2019

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Libya seems to be kicking off again:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1113829588298346496

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008


Hopefully this doesn't result in full scale battles inside Tripoli, but instead will lead to negotiation. Haftar has been threatening this for years but was never capable of pulling it off. However he's just been steadily taking more and more territory and assets, improving his position, while the Tripoli based government just becomes more and more dysfunctional. My guess is he will back down before there's really large scale destructive fighting, but the Tripoli authority will give him new concessions. Nobody is really in a position to stop Haftar from taking western Libya apart piece by piece.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Squalid posted:

Hopefully this doesn't result in full scale battles inside Tripoli, but instead will lead to negotiation. Haftar has been threatening this for years but was never capable of pulling it off. However he's just been steadily taking more and more territory and assets, improving his position, while the Tripoli based government just becomes more and more dysfunctional. My guess is he will back down before there's really large scale destructive fighting, but the Tripoli authority will give him new concessions. Nobody is really in a position to stop Haftar from taking western Libya apart piece by piece.

I'm guessing a bunch of people are hoping he'll have another stroke and his supporters will splinter behind different factions. It's pretty wild for a 75+ year old general who almost died from a stroke last year to be the guy threatening to conquer the country.

Tweezer Reprise
Aug 6, 2013

It hasn't got six strings, but it's a lot of fun.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/04/house-rebukes-trump-with-vote-ending-us-support-for-yemen-war-1255866

Andrew Desiderio posted:

The House on Thursday approved a measure to cut off U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen's bloody civil war, in yet another harsh rebuke of President Donald Trump's foreign policy.

Trump is expected to veto the measure, which passed with bipartisan support in both chambers. Thursday’s 247-175 vote marks the first time in history that a War Powers resolution will reach the president's desk.

The effort was a top priority for House Democrats after they took control in January amid a worsening humanitarian crisis on the ground in Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have sought to overthrow the country’s government.

It also reflects broad dissatisfaction on Capitol Hill with Trump’s foreign policy — in particular, his posture toward Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

“The president will have to face the reality that Congress is no longer going to ignore its constitutional obligations when it comes to foreign policy,” said Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Trying to follow what's happening in Libya and it seems like Haftar is really serious. His forces are reported to be just 17 miles west of Tripoli now. Apparently they have been advancing north today from the town of Gharyan south of Tripoli encountering little resistance. They have probably been aided by some local militias in the towns they have passed through, many of which have little reason to love the Tripoli government. If he tries to enter Tripoli the Misratans may be the only forces committed to standing their ground.

The fact that forces loyal to Haftar have been able to advance so far seems like a really bad look for Serraj. His government has been riven by factional infighting and has proved ineffective and rudderless. If it can't do anything in response to this provocation it may just melt away into nothing without even putting up a fight. The Misratans are a serious force but I don't think they can control the Tripoli and the rest of the west all by themselves.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
I thought Haftar was brain dead after a stroke

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Haftar whatever happens he seemed to have recovered, unsurprisingly he never released too many details.

Of course he’s never exhibited particularly impressive mental faculties, but it turns out his foes are even stupider.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Haftar seems to have backed off of attacking Tripoli, and the rumor is that he had a greenlight from some Arab countries and France but the US and UK said lol no and put a stop to it. Obviously this sort of back room stuff can be unreliable, so it may be a while before we know the real story, but that's what the livemap has going on over the last few hours anyway.

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth
Sounds like things in Libya are coming along nicely post-gaddafi.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

thatfatkid posted:

Sounds like things in Libya are coming along nicely post-gaddafi.

Well, I mean under Gaddafi they had a country spanning civil war so I guess this would be an improvement.

thatfatkid
Feb 20, 2011

by Azathoth
Conveniently ignoring a few key details to the civil war doesn't make the end result any less horrific.

The NATO "no fly zone" coming into effect when govt forces were approaching Benghazi was just an inconsequential detail.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Is the Petroleum Facilities Guard still a thing?

I always enjoyed their straightforward name and mission statement.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://twitter.com/deyook/status/1113504531764133894?s=21

Cease to Hope
Dec 12, 2011

thatfatkid posted:

Conveniently ignoring a few key details to the civil war doesn't make the end result any less horrific.

please don't try to relitigate it here

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-fighting/taliban-storms-west-afghanistan-district-kills-dozens-idUSKCN1RH08X

quote:

HERAT, Afghanistan (Reuters) - Hundreds of Taliban fighters stormed a district in Afghanistan’s western Badghis province, with both Afghan government forces and the insurgent group suffering dozens of casualties, provincial officials said.

The district of Bala Murghab has been a recurring hotspot of fighting in the past two months, and officials have previously warned that it could fall to the Taliban without reinforcements.

Fighting in Afghanistan has escalated ahead of the usual spring season, as both sides seek to increase leverage in talks on a peace settlement.

The Taliban killed 36 members of the government forces and captured several security checkpoints in attacks that began on Wednesday night, Waris Sherzad, district governor of Bala Murghab, said late on Thursday. Fighting was ongoing, he said.

More than 30 Taliban were also killed, said Jamshed Shahabi spokesman for Badghis’ provincial governor.

Taliban spokesman Qari Yousuf Ahmadi said it attacked from four directions, capturing five checkpoints.

Afghanistan’s defense ministry, in a series of tweets, said its forces chose to “tactically retreat” from the checkpoints to prevent civilian casualties. The ministry said it called in multiple air strikes on Taliban positions.

On Friday, the defense ministry said Afghan forces had forced the Taliban to retreat from some checkpoints and that all key areas remained under its control

The conflict in Badghis has been particularly intense along with northern Kunduz province and Helmand province in the south in recent weeks. Both sides took heavy casualties in Badghis last month, and at one point 50 members of Afghan security forces surrendered to the Taliban.

Another intense round of fighting near Bala Murghab.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Today it looks like Haftar's forces are still moving toward Tripoli, so either the reports yesterday were wrong, he lied about backing down, or things changed.

Edit: Now they're reported to be in control of Tripoli International Airport, though that's been disputed.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Apr 5, 2019

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Sinteres posted:

Today it looks like Haftar's forces are still moving toward Tripoli, so either the reports yesterday were wrong, he lied about backing down, or things changed.

Edit: Now they're reported to be in control of Tripoli International Airport, though that's been disputed.

Unless the US/NATO are willing to bomb them, why would they stop?

Europe wants a strongman in charge who can be bribed not to allow any more migrant boats come from Libyan shores.

Vernii
Dec 7, 2006

I don't have a WSJ subscription so this'll have to do.

U.S. Set To Designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard As Terrorist Organization

quote:

U.S. media are reporting that the United States will soon designate Iran's hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) a foreign terrorist organization, which would be the first time Washingtion has given that label to the military unit of another country.

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters, citing U.S. officials, reported on April 5 that the action could come as early as April 8.

The United States has designated the IRGC’s external branch -- the Quds Force -- and a number of individuals and entities associated with the organization as terrorist, but not the IRGC as a whole.

The WSJ said national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are strong proponents of the move, asserting that it would help Washington crack down on businesses in Europe and elsewhere controlled by the IRGC.

But critics and some Pentagon officials have said the move could open U.S. military and intelligence officials to similar actions by unfriendly foreign governments. The WSJ said General Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the CIA oppose the move.

The WSJ said spokesmen for Dunford and the CIA declined to comment. Officials at the Iranian UN mission did not respond to requests for comment.

The move to designate the IRGC has been speculated upon for several years.

The WSJ quoted Jason Blazakis, who served until last year as director of the State Department’s Counterterrorism Finance and Designations Office, as saying that “the designation of IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization [FTO] is precedent-setting.”

“Never before has the FTO sanctions tool been directed at a state body. The future ramifications of this decision will be profound,” he said.

The IRGC has a force of some 100,000 personnel and runs Tehran’s ballistic missile programs, the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service has said.

The IRGC’s powerful Quds Force, which conducts foreign operations in the Middle East, has arranged weapons deliveries and advised pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere.

Last October, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain -- both bitter rivals of Iran -- added the IRGC and senior officers from the Quds Force to their lists of people and organizations suspected of involvement in terrorism.

Saudi security services said Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, was on the list together with Quds Force officers Hamed Abdollahi and Abdul Reza Shahlai.

In 2011, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the three amid allegations that Soleimani, Abdollahi, and Shahlai were linked to a failed plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's former ambassador to the United States, Adel Al-Jubeir.

Iran at the time dismissed the accusations as false and demanded an apology from Washington.

Looking forward to us burning another trillion loving dollars in a third (fourth?) forever war.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Coldwar timewarp posted:

Unless the US/NATO are willing to bomb them, why would they stop?

Europe wants a strongman in charge who can be bribed not to allow any more migrant boats come from Libyan shores.

There's a few reasons I can think of. Number 1 is money. Libya's oil wealth still flows through the national bank in Tripoli, and if he really pisses the US and other players off the money top could be shut off.

Second is he might lose. Hiftar's LNA is basically just another militia and it's hard say if its even capable of taking Tripoli. If they want to occupy the city by force they'll have to face down the Misratans who are well trained and equipped thanks to their collaboration with the US in defeating IS in Sirte.

Third is politics. Haftar wants position himself as the face of order and secular stability. Shelling Tripoli is going to be a real bad look. As much as he wants to be a dictator and strong man keeping himself in control requires maintaining delicate political relationships and getting lots of people killed could be a problem.

The fourth reason is that he might not need to push further. The Tripoli government has proved to be a joke. The city is divided between many militias who often hate each other nearly as much as Haftar. Over the last few years the ideological motivations of many have faded and many have degenerated into glorified mafias, living through extortion and people smuggling. Haftar doesn't have to defeat these people in battle. Now that he's practically in Tripoli, he just has to offer them a better deal than Sirraj and they may defect.

The Tripoli government has shown an amazing lack of initiative over the last two years. While Hiftir was occupying all of the oil producing regions, they were consumed with byzantine political drama. Now Haftar has marched right up to Tripoli and they barely budged to stop him. If he just waits a little longer they might just fall apart completely without him even needing to finish them off.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

quote:

In 2011, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the three amid allegations that Soleimani, Abdollahi, and Shahlai were linked to a failed plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia's former ambassador to the United States, Adel Al-Jubeir.

This was one of the most absurd episodes. It was a delusional, Iranian used car salesman in Texas who had no affiliations to like anyone trying to get explosives from a DEA informant he thought was in the Mexican cartels.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/How-a-plot-to-kill-Saudi-ambassador-goes-from-5997273.php
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/us/iran-sees-terror-plot-accusation-as-diversion-from-wall-street-protests.html

The fact that it's used as the basis for sanctions is just so drat goddamn stupid and American.

Cable Guy
Jul 18, 2005

I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...




Slippery Tilde
Wasn't there speculation that donny the boy had speculative links with the Imperial Guard through a property in uh... Kazakhstan I think it was.
I'm on a tram and phone posting so can't look it up right now. I know Maddow did a piece on it. It's a building in the middle of a turnpike from memory. I'll look it up when I get home.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Cable Guy posted:

Wasn't there speculation that donny the boy had speculative links with the Imperial Guard through a property in uh... Kazakhstan I think it was.
I'm on a tram and phone posting so can't look it up right now. I know Maddow did a piece on it. It's a building in the middle of a turnpike from memory. I'll look it up when I get home.

Probably Azerbaijan, iirc there's some dude in close with the aliyevs and they scratch each others' backs in laundering public funds through poo poo like construction projects.

Time Crisis Actor
Apr 28, 2002

by Hand Knit
This IRGC FTO thing is going to blow up in our face spectacularly.

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Squalid posted:

There's a few reasons I can think of. Number 1 is money. Libya's oil wealth still flows through the national bank in Tripoli, and if he really pisses the US and other players off the money top could be shut off.

Second is he might lose. Hiftar's LNA is basically just another militia and it's hard say if its even capable of taking Tripoli. If they want to occupy the city by force they'll have to face down the Misratans who are well trained and equipped thanks to their collaboration with the US in defeating IS in Sirte.

Third is politics. Haftar wants position himself as the face of order and secular stability. Shelling Tripoli is going to be a real bad look. As much as he wants to be a dictator and strong man keeping himself in control requires maintaining delicate political relationships and getting lots of people killed could be a problem.

The fourth reason is that he might not need to push further. The Tripoli government has proved to be a joke. The city is divided between many militias who often hate each other nearly as much as Haftar. Over the last few years the ideological motivations of many have faded and many have degenerated into glorified mafias, living through extortion and people smuggling. Haftar doesn't have to defeat these people in battle. Now that he's practically in Tripoli, he just has to offer them a better deal than Sirraj and they may defect.

The Tripoli government has shown an amazing lack of initiative over the last two years. While Hiftir was occupying all of the oil producing regions, they were consumed with byzantine political drama. Now Haftar has marched right up to Tripoli and they barely budged to stop him. If he just waits a little longer they might just fall apart completely without him even needing to finish them off.

That was a very well thought out post in response to a rather flippant one, thanks.

I doubt that the US under Trump is likely to oppose Haftar in Libya, with bombs or otherwise. It’s basically one of the few coherent Trumpian foreign policy goals, to prop up friendly dictators as opposed to “globalist” entities like the GNA.

He might lose is quite a reasonable point. If they manage to encounter even a somewhat effective city fighting defence, the outcome is not guaranteed. I think the Misratan Militias and others are probably felt in some way as an occupying force or as gangster like groups collecting protection money, meaning that at least they have little support on the ground.

I don’t think those who support Haftar will be especially averse to civilian casualties in pursuit of their goals. I could be wrong, but it’s an Egyptian project on the logistics front, with Saudi/Gulf funding who is supporting him right? Absolute monarchies and a military dictatorship seem unlikely to stop support if they view it as a necessary cracking of eggs. I’m sort of running off a last I heard basis, feel free to correct me.

I think Trumps foreign policy is a unique opportunity for Haftar, and those who support him, and they are seizing it.

I for some reason think of the recent Indian ASAT test, which some speculate was done with the knowledge that this administration won’t push back on “escalations”, as it has shown in Syria with regards to Israel.

The often toothless US response to these things now even goes without a customary scolding.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://mobile.twitter.com/borzou/status/1114168571964346368

Big day for protests in Sudan as well.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Apr 6, 2019

Punkin Spunkin
Jan 1, 2010
https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1113786931358457856
:laugh:

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

They know what happened in Egypt and don't want it, but I think they'd better be ready to fight.

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qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
I feel that a lot of these protests could be resolved if a Sunni Islamist state was established. It seems that in muslim-majority countries there is always a minority of Sunnis who are unhappy with the secular governments. Maybe when the Taliban finally take over Afghanistan again then that could become a Sunni Islamist state that receives many immigrants. Unlike ISIS, the Taliban at least seem to want to make a somewhat reasonable nation.

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