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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1116067994814304256 these dumb teens are at the very least smarter than Glenn Greenwald
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Apr 11, 2019 02:04
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Badger of Basra posted:https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1116067994814304256 That's not a high bar.
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Apr 11, 2019 02:08
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Z. Autobahn posted:I think there's absolutely truth that a LOT of the Dem electorate are in fact centrists/moderates, and that's worth acknowledging; I think the breakdown is probably something like 40-60 leftists-centrists in the most optimistic case. I think in any pure heads-up race between Bernie and Establishment Candidate, Bernie loses. But that's not what's happening in 2020, and more importantly, there's significant division within centrists. Your average 60-year-old rural white boomer man and your 35-year-old-Asian-urban woman might both not support Bernie, but they also very likely support different candidates from each other. Which is where Bernie has his best in. Oh for sure. I'm not saying Bernie can't win; I think he has a great shot and I'll do everything I can to help him. But this thread seems to, in general, assume that Biden is already toast and that Bernie has the nomination on lock, whereas I'd guess that in reality Bernie, Biden, and Harris all have a roughly 1/3 chance of winning the nomination. But a Bernie win would be one hell of a pyrrhic victory if swing district democrats won't forcefully embrace poo poo like M4A. And honestly I'm not sure what the best way to persuade those people is. If you primary moderate reps in swing districts you lose the house/senate. Realistically, my best guess is that in an ideal scenario Bernie would have a shot at passing one marquee leftist program, probably M4A, which would burn all his political capital. There's this fantasy here that if we just beat up on centrists enough and drive them away then we'll get M4A and the GND and pack the courts and abolish the electoral college and... I mean, I'd like to be wrong but I'd bet you all the money I ever have had or will have that at most one of those things is happening during the term of the next president, even if it's Bernie. And, though this isn't a reason to not pursue those policies, if we could get all of that done in a term, somehow, the backlash would almost certainly sweep republicans back into power in 2022/2024 -- and y'all will probably regret abolishing the filibuster while republicans add 20 Scalia clones to the court. A lotta extremely online leftists are just absurdly manichean about politics. There's not going to be some great battle where progressives vanquish moderates and conservatives once and for all and usher in a utopia. There's no realistic way to seize power and hold it indefinitely when the electorate is so fickle. The activist left is, at best, like 10% of the population. The change that people here, myself included, want to bring about is going to be the result of a long bitter fight that will play out over decades, with tides of backlash from a country that will view major parts of a progressive agenda as overreach.
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Apr 11, 2019 02:13
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YaketySass posted:Beto is less excited at the prospect of winning the presidency than about the daydream that there might be a movie made about his life some day. Thank you pod save america
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Apr 11, 2019 02:16
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Lol Pete butt knows the languages of people he wants to violently invade and murder Beto stands on stuff and acts like a total bro quality stuff Democratic Party keep it up Ughhh
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Apr 11, 2019 02:25
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Pulcinella di Bund posted:Lol Pete butt knows the languages of people he wants to violently invade and murder Hey now. Norway isn't one of the many, many, many countries that Mayor Pete wants to invade and ransack. Don't you feel foolish now?
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Apr 11, 2019 02:28
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Majorian posted:Hey now. I am undone
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Apr 11, 2019 02:33
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Wicked Them Beats posted:When a Senator looks in a mirror they see a future president looking back at them, and at this point that also applies to reality TV stars and no-name House reps so don't expect any of these people to actually drop before they're out of money. Their egos won't allow it. Honestly, you don't even have to allot very much of the decision to stay in to ego. Given the size of the field, proportional allocation of delegates, and a decent chance things are still close going into the convention, staying in as long as you can is the best strategic move you could make as well. Even if you aren't going to be the nominee or runner up, if you have any delegates then you are more likely to have a real say in the convention than probably any other convention since 1968.
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Apr 11, 2019 03:04
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Pembroke Fuse posted:This is what you get when centrists spend decades marginalizing opposition to war as something that only "hippies" do and Very Serious People™ should all just accept war as a fact of life. Its not pretty. this is a good point, one i rarely see stated so succinctly
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Apr 11, 2019 03:12
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Gyges posted:Honestly, you don't even have to allot very much of the decision to stay in to ego. Given the size of the field, proportional allocation of delegates, and a decent chance things are still close going into the convention, staying in as long as you can is the best strategic move you could make as well. Even if you aren't going to be the nominee or runner up, if you have any delegates then you are more likely to have a real say in the convention than probably any other convention since 1968. Given the 15% threshold, very few of them will have delegates
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Apr 11, 2019 03:24
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Majorian posted:Hey now. norway has a bunch of oil 
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Apr 11, 2019 03:43
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Pulcinella di Bund posted:Lol Pete butt knows the languages of people he wants to violently invade and murder Pete also speaks English, so I am actually conflicted since ransacking England is one of my pet issues.
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Apr 11, 2019 03:54
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Grammarchist posted:Pete also speaks English, so I am actually conflicted since ransacking England is one of my pet issues. What do you think Brexit is for?
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Apr 11, 2019 04:04
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Ghost Leviathan posted:What do you think Brexit is for? Fair point.
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Apr 11, 2019 04:26
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Gnumonic posted:Oh for sure. I'm not saying Bernie can't win; I think he has a great shot and I'll do everything I can to help him. But this thread seems to, in general, assume that Biden is already toast and that Bernie has the nomination on lock, whereas I'd guess that in reality Bernie, Biden, and Harris all have a roughly 1/3 chance of winning the nomination. It's pretty impressive that you managed to phrase "most Americans hate affordable healthcare and higher wages, and what they actually want is tax cuts for billionaires and subsidies for big business" so many different ways.
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Apr 11, 2019 04:45
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When you get down to it, I don't think anyone expects Bernie to fix even half of what he knows needs fixing, not even in two terms - Not for lack of effort, but as we've pointed out amongst ourselves plenty of times, it's going to take awhile to drag the Overton Window kicking and screaming back to the Left far enough that Good Things stop being regarded as impossible pipe dreams. What Bernie represents is simply the biggest step we can take with the options we have. Let him help us take that big step Left and lay the groundwork for normalizing worker's rights and lgbtq+ rights and solving climate issues so that AOC and future politicians like her can be seen as the Good Guys and not as fringe lunatics who want to arrest you for eating hamburgers. It's like the dude at the end of Idiocracy. He didn't solve all of the problems, but he got the ball rolling back in the right direction.
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Apr 11, 2019 05:09
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Gnumonic posted:But a Bernie win would be one hell of a pyrrhic victory if swing district democrats won't forcefully embrace poo poo like M4A. And honestly I'm not sure what the best way to persuade those people is. If you primary moderate reps in swing districts you lose the house/senate. Realistically, my best guess is that in an ideal scenario Bernie would have a shot at passing one marquee leftist program, probably M4A, which would burn all his political capital. There's this fantasy here that if we just beat up on centrists enough and drive them away then we'll get M4A and the GND and pack the courts and abolish the electoral college and... I mean, I'd like to be wrong but I'd bet you all the money I ever have had or will have that at most one of those things is happening during the term of the next president, even if it's Bernie. this is assuming the very specific failures of the obama administration automatically apply to a hypothetical sanders admin
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Apr 11, 2019 05:39
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DaveWoo posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1116012669352468481 Eh, that slogan would be fine if he was actually going to go big and be bold. It's that he won't is the problem. If that was Bernie's slogan it would be fine.
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Apr 11, 2019 05:49
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Lightning Knight posted:I see that I missed truther chat. I mostly just find it super weird that somebody can be a truther while also being so keenly aware of the colonial war machine. Like, if you know anything at all about US foreign policy you know that you don't need to kill thousands of your own citizens to do a regime change. You just kind of do it and tell people it's because the president was a super bad dictator. At worst maybe you have the CIA fund some terrorist groups to stir poo poo up so you can claim the resulting violence and arrests are signs of a tyrant oppressing his people. It's literally that easy because for the most part the American public doesn't know what happens outside of the US and most of those that do don't care as long as the dead aren't white.
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Apr 11, 2019 05:58
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readingatwork posted:I mostly just find it super weird that somebody can be a truther while also being so keenly aware of the colonial war machine. Conspiratorial logic never makes sense, it's usually a coping mechanism for when one feels the world somehow fundamentally has stopped making sense, in order to force it back into rightness. Unrelated but relevant to the thread: https://twitter.com/dorothy4house/s...genumber%3D1868
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Apr 11, 2019 06:03
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readingatwork posted:I mostly just find it super weird that somebody can be a truther while also being so keenly aware of the colonial war machine. How long will it take to capture Baghdad? 2 days Will Saddam be killed? Yes Total Iraqi civillian casualties: 500 dead Total military casualties Iraq: 3000 dead Total military casualties U.S.: 15 dead Will the Iraqi army regulars hold the lines? No Will the Republican Guard fight to the end? No Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes Will Saddam launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes Will Saddam launch attacks on Israel? No -If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes Will Saddam sacrifice Baghdad (gas/nuke it)? No Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? Yes Will Saddam burn the oil fields? Yes How long will the US be occupying Iraq? ~15 years Will the Iraq war catalyze increased terrorism in America?No In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good
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Apr 11, 2019 06:19
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I'm geninely disappointed that buttplug instead of yang is gonna be the exciting new candidate
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Apr 11, 2019 07:26
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Z. Autobahn posted:Given the 15% threshold, very few of them will have delegates Yes, but winning 15% is a way easier goal than actually winning a primary. It is totally possible that the size of the field does make it harder than normal to reach 15% though. There's a decent shot that a lot of states become defacto winner take all.
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Apr 11, 2019 07:44
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Typo posted:I'm geninely disappointed that buttplug instead of yang is gonna be the exciting new candidate Do not despair, friend - Ron Paul didn't have to get mainstream media coverage to tell people to KILL YOU'RE PARENTS, and neither will Yang.
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Apr 11, 2019 08:18
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Gnumonic posted:Oh for sure. I'm not saying Bernie can't win; I think he has a great shot and I'll do everything I can to help him. But this thread seems to, in general, assume that Biden is already toast and that Bernie has the nomination on lock, whereas I'd guess that in reality Bernie, Biden, and Harris all have a roughly 1/3 chance of winning the nomination. "If we implement a lot of extremely popular poo poo there will be horrible backlash and then you'll be sorry" - the pragmatic adult in the room. There is no time for a "long bitter fight" because climate death will claim us all unless we get poo poo done right now. Also the judicial filibuster for SCOTUS nominees was already abolished by the GOP two years ago.
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Apr 11, 2019 08:54
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Not to be "that guy" but it is entirely possible that the kind of left-wing reforms we need will take decades to normalize because America has been so ideologically trained to distrust them AND that we simply don't have that long. It's just a question of whether you think trying to do the right thing has value, even if you know going in you're likely to fail. Personally, I sympathize with the scientists who emphasize that even if we blow past the benchmarks set for climate catastrophe, it's STILL important to keep trying rein it in because those who come after us deserve whatever chance we can yet give them.
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Apr 11, 2019 14:55
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https://mobile.twitter.com/kyletblaine/status/1116327216835641344 Honestly, it’s an improvement over CNN’s usual programming.
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Apr 11, 2019 15:45
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Hell yes, unironically stoked, let's have a million town halls. This primary's never gonna end and I am here for it! https://twitter.com/dril/status/568056615355740160
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Apr 11, 2019 15:51
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That sounds like hell outside of Warren/Sanders Klobuchar has been extremely quiet lately but there are also 10,000 other candidates in the race so maybe it’s just me
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Apr 11, 2019 15:51
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New poll of Wisconsin, and though I'm not sure I think this is Warren's best showing so far
zetamind2000 fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Apr 11, 2019 |
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Apr 11, 2019 16:05
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FlamingLiberal posted:Klobuchar has been extremely quiet lately but there are also 10,000 other candidates in the race so maybe it’s just me Her base is largely 'I wanted Hillary 2.0 but I'm too racist to vote for Harris' so she doesn't really have much room to go anywhere
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Apr 11, 2019 16:06
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Badger of Basra posted:I thought her finance director quit because she refused to take big donor money? Yes and her fundraising strategy depends on building a movement extremely fast which makes his job extremely hard, possibly impossible if she just does okay instead of reaching bernie/harris/biden tier given her huge initial investment in staff. Basically he would have had to build the plane while it was barreling down the runway. Edit: I was racking my brain for other candidates that had extremely high burn rates and remembered the most recent one, although it was a slightly different environment. It didn’t end well. https://twitter.com/mgsreference/status/1116062740731310080?s=21 Zikan fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Apr 11, 2019 |
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Apr 11, 2019 16:07
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fool_of_sound posted:Her base is largely 'I wanted Hillary 2.0 but I'm too racist to vote for Harris' so she doesn't really have much room to go anywhere Don't forget the "it is acceptable, even desirable to abuse your staff" constituency.
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Apr 11, 2019 16:10
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overmind2000 posted:New poll of Wisconsin, and though I'm not sure I think this is Warren's best showing so far too bad by the time WI comes around Warren will probably be too gone for it to help her
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Apr 11, 2019 16:31
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fool_of_sound posted:Her base is largely 'I wanted Hillary 2.0 but I'm too racist to vote for Harris' so she doesn't really have much room to go anywhere King of Solomon posted:Don't forget the "it is acceptable, even desirable to abuse your staff" constituency. Don't forget some  ELECTABILITYweirdoes obsessing over swing states, though it's possible they're just a cover for the former two groups.
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Apr 11, 2019 16:53
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YaketySass posted:Don't forget some "She's from Minnesota, so she'll definitely win Wisconsin and Michigan! All those Midwest states are pretty much the same, right?"
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Apr 11, 2019 16:54
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Gillibrand was standing next to Bernie when he made his latest M4A announcement. What could that mean? Would she back Bernie if she drops out? Maybe she wants to be his Secretary of Defense.
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Apr 11, 2019 16:56
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DaveWoo posted:"She's from Minnesota, so she'll definitely win Wisconsin and Michigan! All those Midwest states are pretty much the same, right?" I mean to be fair, Minnesota and Wisconsin are really similar. The biggest difference is that Wisconsin is full of alcoholics. Well, that and the damage the Walker governorship did.
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Apr 11, 2019 17:23
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readingatwork posted:I mostly just find it super weird that somebody can be a truther while also being so keenly aware of the colonial war machine. Probably the Gulf of Tonkin, which the government didn't admit was lied about until 2005.
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Apr 11, 2019 17:27
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Pembroke Fuse posted:That's not a high bar. A low bar that Glenn Greenwald smacks his head on every time he walks on to Tucker's set. overmind2000 posted:New poll of Wisconsin, and though I'm not sure I think this is Warren's best showing so far Those are great numbers for Bernie. I am starting to have some hope and I am not comfortable with it.
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Apr 11, 2019 17:29
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