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Ardennes
May 12, 2002
It is probably because it really has nothing to do with culture but the actual course of history that lead to that direction. In the case of Egypt, there is a very hard socio-political split that fueled support for Sisi from particularly one side of society.

Also there is a clear geopolitical influence at stake here.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Apr 19, 2019

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Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Actually I think you'll find that hot climates make for slothful and indolent people only suited for rule by a tyrant. Only the temperate northern climes can cultivate the rugged individualism necessary for democratic government.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Helsing posted:

Actually I think you'll find that hot climates make for slothful and indolent people only suited for rule by a tyrant. Only the temperate northern climes can cultivate the rugged individualism necessary for democratic government.

But not the Slavs, too cold and uh non-maritime over there. Makes the brain sluggish and indolent all over again.
Or East Asians, they um... they... they yellow mans.
They are not white protestant.
They bad.
No democracy.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

On the one hand, it's been a pretty bad week for Haftar since his forces don't seem to be making any advances toward Tripoli anymore, and if anything have been pushed back a bit. On the other hand, Trump seems to be a fan, so forcing the opposition to unify in defense of the city may turn out to be a solid long term move if he manages to convince Trump they're all terrorists now:

Trump "recognized Field Marshal Haftar's significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources, and the two discussed a shared vision for Libya's transition to a stable, democratic political system," the White House said Friday in its official readout of the call.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/19/politics/us-libya-praise-haftar/index.html

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Apr 19, 2019

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Dang. When even squalid is moralizing at you, you know you hosed up.

Absurd Alhazred posted:

I didn't get the sense that Morsi was some kind of tyrant or theocrat, mostly he had to deal with a very military-controlled "oversight" system which ended up deposing him. I was hoping the Muslim Brotherhood's closeness with Hamas would lead to him helping alleviate issues with Gaza, as well. It just really sucks all around, and I'm still mad at people who kept denying it was a coup as it was happening.

On a scale of 0 to the Rabaa massacre, Morsi doesn't even register, but he did attempt to pass some sweeping powers acts that were a major catalyst for the protests. But on the other hand, he was between a rock and a hard place. I think it's less about "oversight," and more that he was set up for failure, and then the military and aligned media went all in trying to undermine him. When the election for president began, the role of the position wasn't even defined. They started negotiating what president was after Morsi was elected. That's emblematic of the Egyptian democracy during that time period. It was scraps of ideas bound together with chicken wire and duct tape. I remember an interview with somebody during that election who said that he was voting for Morsi because he thought Morsi would be the easiest to overthrow later. I can't imagine that was a common viewpoint, but I do think it happens to touch on the root of the issue.

Arguing over whether Morsi should've been deposed or not is missing the forest for the trees. Egypt's democracy was fatally flawed from the beginning, and Morsi's job primarily was to be a symbol for people to rally against. On the surface he was running the show, but the undercurrent within Egypt was entirely controlled by the military. I wasn't a huge fan of Morsi as a leader, but I don't think it really mattered if he was doing things right or not. Egypt's democracy needed such massive revisions to be functional that there's no way it could've been done within the system. It was going to have to be burnt down and rebuilt from scratch, by design. So the failure here wasn't in the coup, but in the fact that the military was never rooted out to begin with. Mubarak fell, and everything else stayed the same. Then Sisi was able to ride the wave and eventually pull off what the military likely intended to do clear back to when they first intervened against Mubarak.

There is still one positive out of this story though. People in Algeria and in Sudan are still out protesting, and that's largely because what happened in Egypt is fresh in all their minds.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Apr 19, 2019

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna
Wasn't Morsi's main authoritarian action to try to reduce the power of the judiciary? An unelected body that at that point was exclusively old Mubarak appointees? Stocked like a loving Koi pond with military fascists?

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin

Sinteres posted:

On the one hand, it's been a pretty bad week for Haftar since his forces don't seem to be making any advances toward Tripoli anymore, and if anything have been pushed back a bit. On the other hand, Trump seems to be a fan, so forcing the opposition to unify in defense of the city may turn out to be a solid long term move if he manages to convince Trump they're all terrorists now:

Trump "recognized Field Marshal Haftar's significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources, and the two discussed a shared vision for Libya's transition to a stable, democratic political system," the White House said Friday in its official readout of the call.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/19/politics/us-libya-praise-haftar/index.html

lol is this like more Trump regime infighting

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Throatwarbler posted:

lol is this like more Trump regime infighting

probably, i doubt Trump even knew who Haftar was or cared before this. US Libya policy has obviously just been on autopilot since Trump's election.

This offensive is looking to have a been a disaster for Haftar. There no seems to be no prospect of the LNA taking Tripoli, he's pissed off all his foreign backers, and united the GNA. This likely also killed the efforts to form a compromise government, how could anyone in Tripoli be dumb enough to believe Haftar would ever actually work with them in good faith?

Best case scenario for Haftar now seems to be going back to the status quo before his offensive. He's made himself look weak and cruel though. Shelling civilian neighborhoods is never a good look.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Volkerball posted:

Dang. When even squalid is moralizing at you, you know you hosed up.
Arguing over whether Morsi should've been deposed or not is missing the forest for the trees. Egypt's democracy was fatally flawed from the beginning

I disagree, here is documented proof of the health of Egypt's democracy, live from the polling stations:

https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.m.abdelslam/videos/10157045428065429/UzpfSTc4NjI0MDM3NjoxMDE2MjQ2NjYyMDkxNTM3Nw/

bradburypancakes
Sep 9, 2014

hmm. hmmmmmmmm
Did they end up killing Morsi or is he still in jail? I honestly can’t remember

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

bradburypancakes posted:

Did they end up killing Morsi or is he still in jail? I honestly can’t remember

In jail. They overturned his death sentence.

For spying, lol.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
Qasem Soleimani been promoted to major general and appointed head of the whole Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Edit: Better name transliteration.

OhFunny fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Apr 26, 2019

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

This is interesting, this is a small AMA from a non-Kurdish Syrian guy who went to Sheikh Maqsood in Aleppo. It sounds like things are fairly peaceful, and apparently if you're on foot you can just cross right over with no real issue:
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/bfapx9/i_just_came_back_from_sheikh_maqsoud_ama/

quote:

donderpatrullen:
How did it look/feel compared to the Western allepo? Are there more/less people and how does the living conditions compare? Thanks!

Dntosh:
SM looks in general like poor areas of Aleppo.
So you could partially compare it (due to some destruction) to front areas which were in western Aleppo during the war.
there were surprisingly a good amount of people living there, I imagined it would be way less.
Living conditions seem to be alright (Syrian standard), Nobody caring water around indicates water pumps are working, generators are everywhere but that's the case in most of Aleppo.

SploonTheDude:
Are there any tensions between YPG there and SAA?

Dntosh:
I would say bare minimum.

This quote shows how the YPG/SAA checkpoints work:

quote:

tansim:
what's the status, who is in charge? did you see any ypg flags?

Dntosh:
YPG/PYD, poo poo ton of flags and Ocalan photos.

tansim:
what does the demarcation line with saa look like?

Dntosh:
Try to imagine this, A SAA/Gov checkpoint with no obvious defenses or heavy weaponry. about 150-200 meters down the road the Kurdish/PYD checkpoint, same situation but with more soldiers seen and female soldiers too (Just wanted to mention it).

tansim:
did either ask you why you leave/enter? is it common to cross over? did you have to pay bribes?

Dntosh:
Surprisingly no one gave two shits about a bunch of dudes (none of which are Kurdish) walking in and out.
Cars are searched tho by both gov and Kurds.


Zanerax:
How long did getting through the checkpoint take? Does it seem viable as a daily commute? Being able to do so seems like it would be important for when civilian life is the priority

Dntosh:
>How long did getting through the checkpoint take?
the time it takes to walk by.

>Does it seem viable as a daily commute?
Easily.

>Did you go to a market or notice any significant price differences there?
Cigs and clothes are cheaper, didn't ask for anything else.

This one's interesting, NeoSom seems to be somewhat indignant that the YPG still hold territory and that the regime hasn't done anything about it:

quote:

NeoSom:
Is the area that the YPG controls big? I heard that YPG and SAA share control over the area but I never thought it's official YPG territory.

Also do they have their own schools and institutions and stuff?

Dntosh:
Shhhh don't let Turkey know that lol.
There is some Syrian gov involvement there from time to time (Mostly by the ministries of health and Education). but in general, all controlled by YPG.

NeoSom:
Is there oil there? [For cars, Syria's been facing a gasoline shortage recently.]

Dntosh
Didn't ask, but cars were moving all over the place so I would guess:
1. they get it from gov areas.
2. they get it from somewhere else through nubl and zahraa.

NeoSom:
It's crazy. I don't understand why the government would allow the YPG to make their own mini state in a neighborhood in Aleppo.

How big is SM compared to all of Aleppo city?

Dntosh:
you could check a map.
Anyway as a Syrian citizen it doesn't worry me much.
Kurds can have their poo poo done there, so be it.

That last interaction is very interesting, and squares with the general war-weariness feeling I've seen from most areas of Syria. People don't care if the YPG holds Sheikh Maqsood as long as things are peaceful and quiet.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Apr 22, 2019

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OhFunny posted:

Hossein Salami has been promoted to major general and appointed head of the whole Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

That's an... unfortunate transliteration of his name on several levels.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
And the Egyptian constitutional amendments have passed with an 88% yes vote! :toot:

-Sisi is now president till 2030.
-Women have a guaranteed 25% share of the houses of parliament.
-Another house of parliament, the senate, is reintroduced.
-The Egyptian military is now constitutionally the guarantor of Egyptian democracy

Turnout was 44% (27M/61M voters)

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1120709227662774273

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

Ham posted:

-Sisi is now president till 2030.
-Women have a guaranteed 25% share of the houses of parliament.
-The Egyptian military is now constitutionally the guarantor of Egyptian democracy

Hurrah for the ascendancy of woke fascism.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Zurakara posted:

Hurrah for the ascendancy of woke fascism.

these people literally finger raped women who went out to protest against them and gladly killed and tortured women. They are every bit as reactionary and anti-women as they claim to be against.

In any case, now the sham of egypt has reached its zenith, and when that country collapses next time the forces of change can eliminate the whole structure once and for all, unfortunately, because the gulf is dead set against democracy in the arab world it will be quite the bloody affair. Here's hoping the algerians and sudanese succeed because the arab world needs more strongholds for democracy to fight back against these animals. I'm glad Haftar is eating poo poo, I really hope the libyan parliament can defeat him once and for all.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
For some mild civil disobedience. gently caress these pieces of poo poo so hard.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tekaldas/status/1120628691539759104

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Zurakara posted:

Hurrah for the ascendancy of woke fascism.
If you want a "funny*" fact, before the last mid term election American women in the Congress were around 19%.
After it, it is now around 21% and it passed over the % of women in what would be the Saudi's "lower house" (you know the country who torture feminists) which made in my eyes the celebration of the "great feminist victory" by the US media looks quite pathetic. That's a 2% gain so reaching parity in America's lower house at this speed should take around 30 years. Which is 15+ times faster than after the previous mid term so there is something to celebrate. So don't worry America, next election you can probably celebrate getting more women in your congress than in the lower house of a country where people rape women during protests. :smithicide:

* actually depressing

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Apr 24, 2019

orange sky
May 7, 2007

https://www.thenational.ae/uae/government/sheikh-khalifa-uae-s-federal-national-council-to-be-50-per-cent-women-1.800357

They'll probably have men whispering in their ears but yeah, it's kind of ironic.

orange sky fucked around with this message at 07:55 on Apr 24, 2019

Cease to Hope
Dec 12, 2011

Ham posted:

-Women have a guaranteed 25% share of the houses of parliament.

I don't know a lot about Egypt but is this an attempt to encode secularism into the Constitution? It feels like one to me.

AFancyQuestionMark
Feb 19, 2017

Long time no see.

"Israeli President Netanyahu"

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Cease to Hope posted:

I don't know a lot about Egypt but is this an attempt to encode secularism into the Constitution? It feels like one to me.

Iirc Iran has similar guaranteed representation for not women (though they're not barred from running so there's some but not many) but various ethnic and religious groups. Like there's a certain number of seats that are for Iranian Jews, certain number for Armenians, Zoroastrians etc. It's not a ton - like one or two per group - but I guess some guaranteed representation is better than none?

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

FAUXTON posted:

Iirc Iran has similar guaranteed representation for not women (though they're not barred from running so there's some but not many) but various ethnic and religious groups. Like there's a certain number of seats that are for Iranian Jews, certain number for Armenians, Zoroastrians etc. It's not a ton - like one or two per group - but I guess some guaranteed representation is better than none?

Yeah, Iran/Persia has always been an amalgamation of many different people's and religions, I guess they didn't want minorities excluded from the majlis.

Armenians get two, and then one each for Assyrians, Jews and Zoroastrians. Sunnis don't get a guaranteed seat but can be elected.

Huh, looking on wikipedia, these minority seats were introduced in 1906, and kept on after 1979.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Count Roland posted:

Yeah, Iran/Persia has always been an amalgamation of many different people's and religions, I guess they didn't want minorities excluded from the majlis.

Armenians get two, and then one each for Assyrians, Jews and Zoroastrians. Sunnis don't get a guaranteed seat but can be elected.

Huh, looking on wikipedia, these minority seats were introduced in 1906, and kept on after 1979.

For as many big huge problems as Iran has (before and after 1979) they never really got particularly infected by 19th century style nationalism.
They have almost a more loose and "we were Persia!" or "yay Shia Islam" thing. But not some "THIS IS THE STATE OF THE PERSIAN PEOPLE, WHICH INCLUDES SO AND SO, DOESN'T INCLUDE SO AND SO, AND IS FOR THE FORMER!" nastiness.

What I'm saying is they don't have Turkey's sickness.
Which I think is partly chalk uppable to more of a certain cultural self-confidence? They have an ancient and pretty globally understood heritage to something vague and cool. And even though it's been pretty messy and rocky, they've largely maintained independence in the modern era. Without anyone questioning their legitimacy as A Thing. Sure Brits and Russians/Soviets and so on meddled with them and occupied them at points and pulled strings. But no one ever questioned their existence. And they're still a sizable big country of some import.

The birth of Turkish nationalism didn't have that perk. Even if they maintained their independence they drat sure weren't given any assumptions of legitimacy and continuity with some ancient world Thing.

Meanwhile Greek nationalism may have the confidence of connecting itself to a respected ancient Thing, but not the sense of holding it together in modern times against outside forces. Which is why Greek nationalism is half endless smug confidence, and half bitter victim complex. Doesn't help that much of their confidence ultimately relates to being a living museum country and not continued importance.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Volkerball posted:

For some mild civil disobedience. gently caress these pieces of poo poo so hard.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tekaldas/status/1120628691539759104

Yeah and pretty much every major American outlet has uncritically repeated the Saudi line that the recent executions were all for terrorism. You'd think murdering a journalist working for a major American media outlet would have led to them being extended less benefit of the doubt, but a lazy return to the status quo seems to have prevailed. As long as political elites tell the media 'this is our ally,' the media will obey and downplay human rights abuses.

In other news, Haftar's forces seem to be advancing toward Tripoli again.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Apr 24, 2019

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

AFancyQuestionMark posted:

"Israeli President Netanyahu"

Yes at the end of the pm term netanyahu can extend his length by creating a presidential role and then running a Solo race

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

In the grand realm of things I'm guessing nobody had "Libya" as the next foreign clusterfuck we we were going to get into

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1121135382572220416?s=19

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Holy poo poo look at boltons expression

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Yes at the end of the pm term netanyahu can extend his length by creating a presidential role and then running a Solo race

There already is a president but it's pretty ceremonial and I think dude only gets involved when it comes time for ruling coalitions to form after parliamentary elections.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Volkerball posted:

There already is a president but it's pretty ceremonial and I think dude only gets involved when it comes time for ruling coalitions to form after parliamentary elections.

So there-s room to expand similar to Erdogans rise from ceremonial to executive

FronzelNeekburm
Jun 1, 2001

STOP, MORTTIME

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Holy poo poo look at boltons expression

The article says Bolton separately confirmed to Haftar that the US would support him, so that's probably just his resting war criminal face.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Sinteres posted:

Yeah and pretty much every major American outlet has uncritically repeated the Saudi line that the recent executions were all for terrorism. You'd think murdering a journalist working for a major American media outlet would have led to them being extended less benefit of the doubt, but a lazy return to the status quo seems to have prevailed. As long as political elites tell the media 'this is our ally,' the media will obey and downplay human rights abuses.

In other news, Haftar's forces seem to be advancing toward Tripoli again.

Gonna need a source this time since you were wrong last time you made this claim, again there's no reports on Twitter drawing this conclusion, and it's starting to sound like you're uncritically repeating the Saudi line on Haftar and the LNA.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Al-Saqr posted:

I'm glad Haftar is eating poo poo, I really hope the libyan parliament can defeat him once and for all.
I have terrible news...

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Volkerball posted:

Gonna need a source this time since you were wrong last time you made this claim, again there's no reports on Twitter drawing this conclusion, and it's starting to sound like you're uncritically repeating the Saudi line on Haftar and the LNA.

I'm just looking at the livemap dude--I don't speak Arabic, and sources are extremely limited as far as I can tell. Pretty sure there was still evidence of them advancing last time I made the claim, even if the fighting was inconclusive and they fell back later (you were right that they were stalling out, but they hadn't quite hit their ultimate limit yet), but I'll admit that I may have jumped the gun on this one since there were also reports of the GNA making continued progress in pushing them back. My bad for not waiting for more evidence if it was bullshit.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
I was mostly just teasing you because of the first part of your post. Truth is it's all very wait and see, since it's become clear both sides feel way more comfortable counter-attacking than they do defending. There's a lot of tactical withdrawals getting hyped as victories and then 2 days later, the victors turn around and lose what they got, so it's gonna be something we're gonna have to look at month to month rather than day to day to get an accurate picture unless things take a big noticeable swing one way or the other.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Apr 25, 2019

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
On a rhetorical and analytical level, it sure does make things simpler now that US foreign policy is back to literally just trying to find the most evil, craven people to support.

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

Herstory Begins Now posted:

On a rhetorical and analytical level, it sure does make things simpler now that US foreign policy is back to literally just trying to find the most evil, craven people to support.

Hey. We also back incredibly evil brave people as well. Like Hekmetyar or that dude in Chad who literally asked the CIA to help him rape an entire ethnic group.

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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/rohadvani/status/1120819045677375489

:hmmyes:

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