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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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HootTheOwl posted:Those stats are front the lastest (at the time I posted) poll from RCP. I just don't think a poll that is half not-democrats is a good sample for the Democratic primary. You're right that that wouldn't be a good sample for the Dem primary. Luckily, that's not what's going on with the poll! The poll you're talking about has a sample size of 1,002, 29% independent and 32% republican. If you look at their Dem primary results though, those only have a sample of 440, 84% Dems and 16% independents.
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May 9, 2019 13:29
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it's gonna suck so hard if the olds stick us with a candidate far worse than clinton.
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May 9, 2019 13:38
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But I thought that the problem was with the candidates and the party, not the voters?
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May 9, 2019 13:40
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Pinterest Mom posted:You're right that that wouldn't be a good sample for the Dem primary. Luckily, that's not what's going on with the poll! How do you think I got to that poll? It's the first one listed on the Dem primary page.
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May 9, 2019 13:41
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HootTheOwl posted:How do you think I got to that poll? Sure. I'm just saying there's nothing objectionable about a poll that has a primary electorate of 84% Dems, and that the 29% I/32% R number you're quoting is a misreading of which samples apply to which parts of the poll.
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May 9, 2019 13:49
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It's not the voters because they've been sold a fraud. The party pushed Biden on Obama and have allowed him to be a racist piece of poo poo for decades with no real issues. He's coasting on name recognition and a lifetime career as a party faithfull. The voters aren't looking at his record and saying "wow we want the wall and segregation." Biden showing up now without his brand as Obama's VP would be polling at 0 with the rest of the losers. This situation is entirely of the party's making. We need to stop acting like everything is always the voters fault and the people in charge of everything are just blowing in the wind. When polled on what he believes most people are ignorant because that's been whitewashed during the entirety of Obama's presidency.
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May 9, 2019 13:53
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ELO Musk posted:God bless the poster who volunteered to protect us. Good luck, you plucky adventurer. Thanks, but idiot kings don't get blessings. We get curses, which pile up endlessly until we're finally devoured by our own powers and dragged kicking and screaming into hell, where we will be tormented by hair-sniffing Biden and counter-surfing Pete until the end of days. Ither posted:When are candidates expected to start dropping out? After the first debate? Some of the really minor petty ones might drop out over the next few months if they completely fail to draw significant donor interest, but I'm not sure how many of them are actually aiming for a win vs just doing it to boost their profile and advertise themselves for spots in the winner's administration. When the first debate happens, most of the vanity candidates that failed to meet the support threshold for participating will probably drop out. After a couple of debates, the rest of the ones who were only running to get on the debate stage will drop out. After that, most of the rest will probably stay in until Iowa or New Hampshire clearly separate the somebodies from the nobodies.
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May 9, 2019 14:31
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Radish posted:We need to stop acting like everything is always the voters fault and the people in charge of everything are just blowing in the wind. When polled on what he believes most people are ignorant because that's been whitewashed during the entirety of Obama's presidency. As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed.
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May 9, 2019 14:34
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Hmm yes 
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May 9, 2019 14:42
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https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1126468107244060672 i like that yglesias sometimes has such bad takes a bunch of people can't tell when he's being sarcastic.
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May 9, 2019 14:44
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Groovelord Neato posted:https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1126468107244060672 Part of the issue is that the Democratic strategy is general is to let the Republicans define them and then run away from that so even if that tweet is blattantly obvious a lot of people are pretty touchy around that topic
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May 9, 2019 14:49
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Main Paineframe posted:Thanks, but idiot kings don't get blessings. We get curses, which pile up endlessly until we're finally devoured by our own powers and dragged kicking and screaming into hell, where we will be tormented by hair-sniffing Biden and counter-surfing Pete until the end of days. Point of order: it is Beto that surfs counters, not Pete. Though I know the fact that they're both annoying, nondescript white dudes makes it easy to mix up. That is all.
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May 9, 2019 14:49
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It's going to be hilarious when Trump wins in 2020 and everyone that supported Biden lashes out about everyone that keeps pointing out that Biden is a massive racist and that hanging around one black guy doesn't change that.
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May 9, 2019 14:55
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VH4Ever posted:Point of order: it is Beto that surfs counters, not Pete. Though I know the fact that they're both annoying, nondescript white dudes makes it easy to mix up. That is all. At the first debate they're gonna do the fusion dance to form a powerful warrior, who will completely destroy all the other candidates with their powerful platitudes and their incredibly empty statements. By the time the fusion expires, the audience will only have one question to ask: would this mighty fused warrior be called Buttirourke, Betogieg, or Butto?
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May 9, 2019 15:03
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Main Paineframe posted:At the first debate they're gonna do the fusion dance to form a powerful warrior, who will completely destroy all the other candidates with their powerful platitudes and their incredibly empty statements. By the time the fusion expires, the audience will only have one question to ask: would this mighty fused warrior be called Buttirourke, Betogieg, or Butto? Butto 2020: Butt To The Future
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May 9, 2019 15:10
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LinYutang posted:As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed. This was the general spin but it's fairly slanted. Our Revolution candidates were generally running against incumbents, and incumbents almost always win re-election. In 2016 candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats and Our Revolution won 32% of their primaries, which is actually a pretty impressive win rate for insurgent, non-establishment candidates.
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May 9, 2019 15:11
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LinYutang posted:As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed. This was the general spin but it's fairly slanted. Our Revolution candidates were generally running against incumbents, and incumbents almost always win re-election. In 2016 candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats and Our Revolution won 32% of their primaries, which is actually a pretty impressive win rate for insurgent, non-establishment candidates.
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May 9, 2019 15:11
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i had no idea how few americans know trump was born wealthy: makes sanders's "i know where i came from" video all the more powerful.
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May 9, 2019 15:12
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LinYutang posted:As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed. There's some truth to that but it's not particularly remarkable. Voters tend to be risk averse and therefore reflexively conservative, and Democratic primary voters are much more likely than the average person to positively identify with the Democratic party as an institution, meaning they're not always going to be as receptive to a message about Democratic corruption and the inadequacies of previous Democratic politicians. None of that is actually a significantly greater barrier than what past reformers have faced though, anyone seeking to enact widespread change is inevitably going to run into a lot of institutional resistance. I also think people's expectations have been set very high by Bernie's unexpectedly strong performance in 2016 and his success in dominating the media since then. If Sanders losses again but leaves behind a much stronger and better organized network of genuine left-wing and democratic socialist activists and has a relatively firm grasp on something like 15% of the Democratic primary voting electorate then that would be a dramatic improvement in the left's position. While it's dangerous to try and guess the future right now, the best that can be hoped for might be that when the next big crash hits the left is better organized and doesn't have to vest all its hopes into a centrist chameleon like Obama.
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May 9, 2019 15:23
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Helsing posted:There's some truth to that but it's not particularly remarkable. Voters tend to be risk averse and therefore reflexively conservative, and Democratic primary voters are much more likely than the average person to positively identify with the Democratic party as an institution, meaning they're not always going to be as receptive to a message about Democratic corruption and the inadequacies of previous Democratic politicians. None of that is actually a significantly greater barrier than what past reformers have faced though, anyone seeking to enact widespread change is inevitably going to run into a lot of institutional resistance. Okay, but how strong would the left be if Trump wins re election or if Biden wins? Wouldn’t it demoralize a lot of people and weaken the movement? Wouldn’t the general public see a Biden nomination or trump re election as a vindication that center left politics don’t work? And given the absolutely terrible response the 2008 crisis got, can we really afford to wait for that while climate change threatens to end technological civilization or all life on earth as we know it? The way I see it this election is super important and represents an inflection point in history. If progressives don’t gain an important office in the US Govt or some form of key influential position, we’re all hosed. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 15:39 on May 9, 2019 |
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May 9, 2019 15:36
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Kraftwerk posted:Okay, but how strong would the left be if Trump wins re election or if Biden wins? Wouldn’t it demoralize a lot of people and weaken the movement? Wouldn’t the general public see a Biden nomination or trump re election as a vindication that center left politics don’t work? I really don't think the left is in a strong enough position where it can expect to Win a large share of the time here, but we've seen a pretty welcome building up of left infrastructure independent of and willing to challenge the Democratic Party centre-left over the past few years. I think the most important development in the last few years (and it looks like this is continuing in 2020) is that you have organised groups like Justice Dems and Indivisible supporting and leading ideologically-motivated primary challenges against the worst elements of the Dem caucus. Those groups are going to keep doing work no matter who the president is. (Indivisible is especially interesting here because it shows this energy isn't just coming from the Bernie wing of the party, but has an broader constituency) The DCCC is fighting back hard, ofc, but I think it'll lose that fight in the long run, and I think that'll have a real disciplining effect on the party and force it to move left, no matter who the standard bearer is. On the climate change point, the real fight there is in the Senate. Pelosi is a progressive and she'll put forward the strongest version she thinks can pass the Senate, President Biden will sign whatever, but getting the fiftieth vote in the Senate is the real lift. That probably means getting a large enough Senate majority to be able to leapfrog Manchin and possibly Sinema, and who knows how that happens. Pinterest Mom fucked around with this message at 15:51 on May 9, 2019 |
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May 9, 2019 15:47
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Main Paineframe posted:Thanks, but idiot kings don't get blessings. We get curses, which pile up endlessly until we're finally devoured by our own powers and dragged kicking and screaming into hell, where we will be tormented by hair-sniffing Biden and counter-surfing Pete until the end of days. That was me... I'm the one being dragged into centrist hell.
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May 9, 2019 15:52
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I can't wait to see Diamond Joe's reaction to Bernie and AOC's 15% cap on credit card interest bill.
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May 9, 2019 15:54
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Mind_Taker posted:I can't wait to see Diamond Joe's reaction to Bernie and AOC's 15% cap on credit card interest bill. Hasn't Biden historically been one of the biggest water carriers of the credit card industry
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May 9, 2019 15:57
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LinYutang posted:As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed. Every post you've made in this thread is anti-Sanders, your bias and motivated reasoning is doing all the work here. His favorability numbers prove you wrong. His donation and volunteer numbers prove you wrong. The Dem electorate does like what he's selling but please, use the polling in May of 2019 to predict stuff like this, it never backfires.
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May 9, 2019 15:58
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Mind_Taker posted:I can't wait to see Diamond Joe's reaction to Bernie and AOC's 15% cap on credit card interest bill. He's gonna remind us again that the wealthy are more patriotic than the poor
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May 9, 2019 16:00
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Pakled posted:Hasn't Biden historically been one of the biggest water carriers of the credit card industry Yes, I mean he basically represented them as senator of Delaware. Bernie potentially using this as a bludgeon against Biden is a really smart move.
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May 9, 2019 16:05
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https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1126433841734987776 Remember when this thread was worried about Buttigieg being the anointed one? And before him, it was Beto? And before Beto, it was Harris?
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May 9, 2019 16:05
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WampaLord posted:https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1126433841734987776 If you're telling me not to be worried about Biden I am not ready to climb down from my kitchen counter quite yet sorry
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May 9, 2019 16:08
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Mind_Taker posted:I can't wait to see Diamond Joe's reaction to Bernie and AOC's 15% cap on credit card interest bill. Here's some early details https://twitter.com/renaemerle/status/1126473916866859008 Hieronymous Alloy posted:If you're telling me not to be worried about Biden I am not ready to climb down from my kitchen counter quite yet sorry I think you will not have to be worried about Biden for particularly long, I think we're already starting to see his bubble popping and then it's going to be anyone's race as the knives come out for Joe.
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May 9, 2019 16:09
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WampaLord posted:Here's some early details The really interesting thing about this is, it's just a return to pre-1980's general practice throughout the western world, including biblical laws against ursury. Many of those laws are still on the books, even at the state level. It's just that a 1978 supreme court decision, Marquette National Bank v. First of Omaha Corp, let banks charge rates according to the laws of whatever state they were chartered in. That led to a race to the bottom where every state started undoing their ursury laws to attract banks, and Delaware -- Land O'Biden -- won the race. Which is why all the credit card companies are chartered in Delaware. WampaLord posted:
My fear is that a significant majority of the Biden support is coming from uninformed idiots who vote based on name recognition, won't even see the knives, and will march us in ignorance right through to the general
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May 9, 2019 16:13
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LinYutang posted:As the loudest progressive voice, Bernie has had several years of media attention to make his case to the voters. Maybe the Dem electorate just doesn't like what he his selling, just like they didn't like most of the Our Revolution candidates he backed. I, too, can't see how concerted opposition from the Dem leadership and megadonors may have played a role in this. 
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May 9, 2019 16:17
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Has Biden discovered the one weird trick to surviving the primary? https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1126499565644013569 If anything, I'd say this is a sign of weakness - an indication that he knows he's vulnerable and is worried about his chances if the knives start to come out.
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May 9, 2019 16:17
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Main Paineframe posted:Has Biden discovered the one weird trick to surviving the primary? LOL, if he thinks that Harris/Butt/O'Rourke will not start taking shots at him... All three of them think they can win and they know the only way to do it is by stripping away Biden's support. They know that all of it is soft--there's no cult of personality for Joe Biden like there was for Hillary Clinton. People who are for him are for him because they think he's the only "electable" option. Show them otherwise, they'll change their minds.
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May 9, 2019 16:21
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Main Paineframe posted:Has Biden discovered the one weird trick to surviving the primary? He's inoculating himself, yeah. It's a flawed strategy for an election cycle in which the base wants a loving fighter.
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May 9, 2019 16:21
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Main Paineframe posted:Has Biden discovered the one weird trick to surviving the primary? Technically Bernie has taken the same pledge. He just goes "I like Joe Biden, he's a friend of mine, but . . ." Then the Berniebashers take that as evidence that Bernie is breaking his pledge / not a real democrat As far as I'm concerned any candidate who can't take the heat should get out of the kitchen not pledge to stop using fire
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May 9, 2019 16:22
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Majorian posted:He's inoculating himself, yeah. It's a flawed strategy for an election cycle in which the base wants a loving fighter. It's also hilariously stupid. No one who attacks him will use his name--they'll just say "I won't sell out to the credit card companies like other candidates have, *wink wink nudge nudge*" or "certain candidates aren't in favor of M4A or legal weed, unlike me, I'm just saying".
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May 9, 2019 16:26
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:It's also hilariously stupid. No one who attacks him will use his name--they'll just say "I won't sell out to the credit card companies like other candidates have, *wink wink nudge nudge*" or "certain candidates aren't in favor of M4A or legal weed, unlike me, I'm just saying". Also Bernie didn't sign that pledge and is already calling Joe out by name and saying stuff like "Joe voted for Iraq, I didn't. Joe voted for NAFTA, I didn't."
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May 9, 2019 16:30
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WampaLord posted:Also Bernie didn't sign that pledge and is already calling Joe out by name and saying stuff like "Joe voted for Iraq, I didn't. Joe voted for NAFTA, I didn't." Bernie did pledge to not make personal attacks on other democrats. He's following that pledge and only attacking on policy grounds. I'd be pissed if he were acting any differently. Policy matters.
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May 9, 2019 16:34
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:My fear is that a significant majority of the Biden support is coming from uninformed idiots who vote based on name recognition, won't even see the knives, and will march us in ignorance right through to the general The majority of Biden's support is that he's the electability candidate. He's the one that the general zeitgeist has determined has the best chance to beat Donny. The effect of this is that any weakness or faltering snowballs. If Biden hasn't sufficiently hosed his own campaign up by Iowa and New Hampshire, he still needs to win those or his numbers begin their free fall. This is especially an issue for him in those states though, since inspiring passion is more important to your vote total there than perhaps any subsequent primary. You've got to be slinging more than simply perceived best odds, especially since it looks like almost every candidate is looking good in the head to heads at this point. Never forget that in 2008, when all he had was his "legendary" personability he couldn't even convince Iowa to toss him more votes than they tossed Bill Richardson. Biden is actually not good at any politics outside of Delaware.
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May 9, 2019 16:34
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