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fnox posted:
Yeah I think we're all aware of the Western media playbook here, including Maduro, which is likely why Guaidó is still free despite trying to launch a military coup.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:03
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brugroffil posted:Yeah I think we're all aware of the Western media playbook here, including Maduro, which is likely why Guaidó is still free despite trying to launch a military coup. He's free, therefore not a dictatorship. But if he were arrested, he deserves it, therefore not a dictatorship. Cool. Lets set some metrics, what would Maduro need to do for you to consider him a dictator? V. Illych L. posted:really if they are arresting other opposition leaders that ship has sailed i think You need to get up to date soon friend. fnox fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:05
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Anyone angry at Maduro holding power has only the US to blame. You want room for needed reforms, you can't have the premier military power of the world drawing its knife at your throat at any sign of regime instability. Maduro sucks, Chavez was a well intentioned but unprepared leader, reforms are needed, but nothing good can happen so long as the hand of the US and international capital are interfering. E: like, really. That's the take away of the last 60 years. Countries can't make any slip ups on their way to trying to improve the situation for their people because any wobbliness is immediately preyed upon by the raptors of international business. There's money to be had in plunder, in destroying, in rebuilding, in new exports once domestic production is obliterated, or just in one sided resource exploitation contracts. This is the system as designed, and no good outcome is possible for anyone save the upper capital class because of it. Ron Paul Atreides fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:20
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fnox posted:He's free, therefore not a dictatorship. But if he were arrested, he deserves it, therefore not a dictatorship. Cool. Lets set some metrics, what would Maduro need to do for you to consider him a dictator? the freedom of a coup plotter isn't a yes or no litmus test of whether somebody is a dictator or not, maduro can be or not be a dictator whether guaido is in prison or not
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Jun 6, 2019 16:24
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dirty lousy tramp posted:the freedom of a coup plotter isn't a yes or no litmus test of whether somebody is a dictator or not, maduro can be or not be a dictator whether guaido is in prison or not What would make Maduro a dictator?
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Jun 6, 2019 16:29
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fnox posted:What would make Maduro a dictator? A regime of military control protecting a minority group or just the military and political class itself from popular opposition. Maduro is probably more like red scare, mcarthyist level authoritarian. Or perhaps even patriot act level right now. Because like him or hate him, most of the venezuelan rank and file, especially those with less, understand he is the better option. E: yeah, considering the repression of black socialists and civil rights leaders, let's slot Maduro squarely into 1950-70s America levels of repression. Ron Paul Atreides fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:32
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:A regime of military control protecting a minority group or just the military and political class itself from popular opposition. Maduro is probably more like red scare, mcarthyist level authoritarian. Or perhaps even patriot act level right now. It's pretty inarguable that the military controls the country. Is that really something that is in contention? He very openly talks about a civic-military union, a military man is the head of PDVSA and CAMIMPEG (which continues the madurista obsession with long-winded acronyms) is a military company that runs most of the actual extraction operations, its not even limited to just oil they also control mining operations. There are similar companies for agriculture and food distribution. The Venezuelan military is deeply embedded in civilian affairs, something that started with Chavez but really ramped up with Maduro. I think most of the Venezuelan people are just tired of bullshit politics. They're as sick of Maduro as they are of the opposition. It's not a matter of him being the better option, it's that they've been let down by the opposition too many times, now they're just fending off by themselves. There is a general feeling of dread and powerlessness, as most have realised they have absolutely no say in their situation unless the Venezuelan military turns against Maduro somehow. I'm not sure if this is an eye opener but to me it seems pretty clear that both sides are unpopular. Both Guaido and Maduro. This ridiculous notion that he has the approval of a majority of Venezuelans comes undone by any poll. What's fairly obvious is that nobody has the approval of a majority of Venezuelans. fnox fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:43
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I think you can reasonably argue that Maduro is less of an autocrat and more of a kleptocrat. He's certainly taken autocratic measures, but only the bare minimum necessary to let him keep asset-stripping the country in peace (particularly since starving people into paralysis and outsourcing government duties to criminal cartels seems to work just as well). He seems to have no long-term vision for Venezuela, only the hope that it'll be too poor, hungry, and anarchic to pursue him once he's sucked it dry and left.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:45
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Darth Walrus posted:I think you can reasonably argue that Maduro is less of an autocrat and more of a kleptocrat. He's certainly taken autocratic measures, but only the bare minimum necessary to let him keep asset-stripping the country in peace (particularly since starving people into paralysis and outsourcing government duties to criminal cartels seems to work just as well). He seems to have no long-term vision for Venezuela, only the hope that it'll be too poor, hungry, and anarchic to pursue him once he's sucked it dry and left. or, as an alternate hypothesis, he is a man of mediocre intelligence given a phenomenally bad hand to play, with the goal of not being murdered by the United States for the crime of being head of state in a country with oil that is not wholly owned and operated by the US State Department. if he is trying to suck the country dry for his own enrichment he has sure picked an rear end-backwards way to do it. but perhaps that is just part of his cunning ploy, to throw people of the trail.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:52
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fnox posted:He's free, therefore not a dictatorship. But if he were arrested, he deserves it, therefore not a dictatorship. Cool. Lets set some metrics, what would Maduro need to do for you to consider him a dictator? I think Maduro has subverted democracy in Venezuela but also the Western media coverage of what has been going on is basically garbage State Department press releases E: and I don't think the US State Department actually gives a poo poo about liberal democracy given this country's horrific history of who they support and actual democracies they've destroyed.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:54
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:or, as an alternate hypothesis, he is a man of mediocre intelligence given a phenomenally bad hand to play, with the goal of not being murdered by the United States for the crime of being head of state in a country with oil that is not wholly owned and operated by the US State Department. How is it an rear end-backwards way of doing it? There's literally nothing stopping him from taking money. Who's gonna stop any sort of corruption going on in his government? The National Assembly? brugroffil posted:I think Maduro has subverted democracy in Venezuela but also the Western media coverage of what has been going on is basically garbage State Department press releases You know what? I actually agree. The only sources supporting Maduro are all straight up owned by the Venezuelan government, the ones overtly pushing Guaido are generally very right leaning and pro-America. There's no third alternative as of right now, but more neutral coverage does exist. Coverage of this is tainted by how being anti-Maduro makes you pro-Guaido by default, and vice versa. fnox fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 16:54
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fnox posted:It's pretty inarguable that the military controls the country. Is that really something that is in contention? He very openly talks about a civic-military union, a military man is the head of PDVSA and CAMIMPEG (which continues the madurista obsession with unpronounceable acronyms) is a military company that runs most of the actual extraction operations, its not even limited to just oil. The Venezuelan military is deeply embedded in civilian affairs, something that started with Chavez but really ramped up with Maduro. Something that has become very very obvious with many non-us aligned regimes is that people have been paying attention these last 30 years and they know whatever the US wants is bad for them. The constant changability of deals and agreements, the radical shifts in diplomatic direction and strategy, the repeated betrayals over and over again after promises of compromise and cooperation, people know. And not just political junkies. People are receiving enough news to know how this poo poo keeps turning out. You are right, the Venezuelans are probably sick of a lot of Maduro's poo poo, and maybe they would've even done something about it. But the US and Lima group had to shoot their mouth off and make their designs plain. It's like the Alawites and Assad. No one likes Assad. But if the opposition being backed by the western hegemony is promising you swift death and suffering, yeah, you are gonna back the devil you know. Which makes all this whinging about how authoritarian Maduro is meaningless; his ouster would not change things positively, would certainly change them negatively, and until US interference is off the table, the status quo is better for the Venezuelan people. And considering how bad things are, think about how bad they imagine it getting with Guaido.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:55
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:or, as an alternate hypothesis, he is a man of mediocre intelligence given a phenomenally bad hand to play, with the goal of not being murdered by the United States for the crime of being head of state in a country with oil that is not wholly owned and operated by the US State Department. What's weird about it? He seems to be running off the crude and messy but broadly effective Trump playbook (loot from literally everybody, including your friends, because life is short, rich people are ludicrously credulous, and long-term thinking is for people who give a poo poo about their legacy), and it's made him rich and fat while the country is poor and thin.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:03
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:Which makes all this whinging about how authoritarian Maduro is meaningless; his ouster would not change things positively, would certainly change them negatively, and until US interference is off the table, the status quo is better for the Venezuelan people. And considering how bad things are, think about how bad they imagine it getting with Guaido. As I've repeatedly stated before, I don't see any difference between the current situation and the neoliberal hellscape. It strikes me as identical. Rich elites making bank, everybody else suffers and works for less than a dollar a day. No food on the table, no healthcare, no safety, no power, no water, and no say on anything. My argument is and has always been that we're better off rolling the dice on a new guy. It's clearly obvious to me that this country doesn't have a future under Maduro. I don't buy this devil you know bullshit. We know this country can be better.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:05
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fnox posted:As I've repeatedly stated before, I don't see any difference between the current situation and the neoliberal hellscape. It strikes me as identical. Rich elites making bank, everybody else suffers and works for less than a dollar a day. No food on the table, no healthcare, no safety, no power, no water, and no say on anything. Then you are simply a fool (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 6, 2019 17:07
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Darth Walrus posted:What's weird about it? He seems to be running off the crude and messy but broadly effective Trump playbook (loot from literally everybody, including your friends, because life is short, rich people are ludicrously credulous, and long-term thinking is for people who give a poo poo about their legacy), and it's made him rich and fat while the country is poor and thin. you can make an awful lot more money an awful lot faster by just selling out to the US, as everyone's favorite Fugitive In His Own Country can tell you. there's a nice little district in Miami where we settle people who have aided the glorious cause of capital by blowing up socialist airliners and the like. someone who just wanted to loot the country without reservation could have had himself a monthly tee-time with Trump by now. strange and horrific though it may seem, Maduro seems to have a goal beyond consuming all empanadas that cross his path. i put forward that this goal is "not be murdered." fnox posted:As I've repeatedly stated before, I don't see any difference between the current situation and the neoliberal hellscape. It strikes me as identical. Rich elites making bank, everybody else suffers and works for less than a dollar a day. No food on the table, no healthcare, no safety, no power, no water, and no say on anything. because you anticipate Abrams-brand death squads will not target anyone who looks like you, yes.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:18
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:Then you are simply a fool If my other option is to accept a totalitarian, kleptocratic government, then I'd rather be a fool. Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:because you anticipate Abrams-brand death squads will not target anyone who looks like you, yes. The colectivos already did. Is the implication here that I'm white?
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Jun 6, 2019 17:18
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fnox posted:If my other option is to accept a totalitarian, kleptocratic government, then I'd rather be a fool. if a couple hundred kids gotta get their skulls smashed open for the crime of their impure blood predisposing them to socialist thought, well, that's a price you're willing to pay. man, -still- can't figure out why Guaido couldn't get anyone to back him over Maduro. real loving poser.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:22
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:if a couple hundred kids gotta get their skulls smashed open for the crime of their impure blood predisposing them to socialist thought, well, that's a price you're willing to pay. Oh if only you'd seen how colectivos and cops treated us at the UCV. Do you really think Maduro doesn't have blood on his hands?
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Jun 6, 2019 17:25
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fnox posted:The colectivos already did. Is the implication here that I'm white? the implication is that you are quite confident that Abrams' patented Roaming Home Improvement/Population Management teams will not go after anyone you personally care about. race has historically been one of the metrics this belief has been based on, but there's a long, bloody history of people who figured that no, really, they'll be able to tell I'm one of the good ones! i can be useful to the American regime! as our good friend Mr. Noriega can tell you, there tends to be a bit of an unpleasant punchline.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:26
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Maduro has already gone after people I personally care about. Wasn't about race. Didn't seem to matter much how much their families earned, people just got picked up, beaten down, gassed or shot left and right. You're telling me to worry about the death squads of tomorrow and not the ones of today.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:31
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports/venezuelas-oil-exports-drop-17-in-may-as-sanctions-kick-in-data-idUSKCN1T521Hquote:The energy firm’s exports of crude and refined products fell 17% in May from the previous month to 874,500 barrels per day (bpd), mainly due to difficulty in selling off barrels of upgraded crude that used to be bought by U.S. refiners. Best estimates are production is even lower, with Venezuela only pumping 700,000 something bpd. Venezuela exported more by selling down stored volume. Total production could fall to 500,000 bpd or lower by the end of the year if nothing changes. Venezuela is on track to lose 17% of GDP this year or something similar
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Jun 6, 2019 17:32
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fnox posted:Maduro has already gone after people I personally care about. Wasn't about race. Didn't seem to matter much how much their families earned, people just got picked up, beaten down, gassed or shot left and right. You're telling me to worry about the death squads of tomorrow and not the ones of today. if you choose to believe nothing could be worse than the colectivos, I very heartily urge you to check out the Guatemalan Miracle you are begging Strong Daddy Trump to bring you, to save you from the hated Maduro. but hey. what's a few sledgehammer massacres, with the bodies of the children chucked into wells to poison them and hung from trees to serve as a warning to all who would defy their American betters, in order to be rid of the fat man.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:36
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:you can make an awful lot more money an awful lot faster by just selling out to the US, as everyone's favorite Fugitive In His Own Country can tell you. there's a nice little district in Miami where we settle people who have aided the glorious cause of capital by blowing up socialist airliners and the like. someone who just wanted to loot the country without reservation could have had himself a monthly tee-time with Trump by now. strange and horrific though it may seem, Maduro seems to have a goal beyond consuming all empanadas that cross his path. i put forward that this goal is "not be murdered." ... OK, walk this past me, how does not selling out to the US State Department make Maduro less likely to be murdered by them, and how are they an easier source of money than the other kleptocratic great powers (Russia and China) that already have deep, established connections with the government he inherited? Hell, how does defunding his own security forces to fill his pockets play into your theory? You seem to be reaching extremely hard and making some strange leaps in logic to suggest this is something other than the standard story of a dumb, greedy crook inheriting a country and letting it wither under him, which is a theme that's recurred dozens of times across dozens of cultures. Genuinely starting to wonder if you've read any history books other than Killing Hope.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:37
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:Which makes all this whinging about how authoritarian Maduro is meaningless; his ouster would not change things positively, would certainly change them negatively, I wasn't aware we had an omniscient poster here. Depending on the mode of Maduro's ouster, there are quite a few ways things could get better. Short of a military invasion it is going to be quite challenging *to do worse* than Maduro has.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:38
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even deeply corrupt types often believe in something there is no real reason to doubt that maduro has a sincerely held world view and political objectives, even if he's a hypocrite
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Jun 6, 2019 17:39
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Rust Martialis posted:I wasn't aware we had an omniscient poster here. Depending on the mode of Maduro's ouster, there are quite a few ways things could get better. Short of a military invasion it is going to be quite challenging *to do worse* than Maduro has. Well he is the Kwisatz Haderach.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:39
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:if you choose to believe nothing could be worse than the colectivos, I very heartily urge you to check out the Guatemalan Miracle you are begging Strong Daddy Trump to bring you, to save you from the hated Maduro. I don't care. Legitimately, I don't give a poo poo about your fear mongering, I don't need it, I've seen enough bad poo poo already for me to say that Maduro is irredeemable, you haven't experienced them, you haven't felt them, you haven't seen them so you can't scare me. Spare me your torture porn fantasies.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:40
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Squalid posted:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-exports/venezuelas-oil-exports-drop-17-in-may-as-sanctions-kick-in-data-idUSKCN1T521H Yeah, US sanctions are certainly having their intended effect and would be the biggest change with a new government....
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Jun 6, 2019 17:41
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V. Illych L. posted:even deeply corrupt types often believe in something I feel like his apparent disinterest in governance except as a resource-extracting tool should serve as some evidence on that count. Hard to think of anything he hasn't defunded, outsourced to cartels, or turned into a money-laundering scheme. I mean, we're run by profoundly insincere people, so why can't Venezuela be?
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Jun 6, 2019 17:43
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fnox posted:Immediately arresting him the first chance they get would just, uh, prove that it is an authoritarian dictatorship after all, lol. Is this even something that is in contention considering how frequently Maduro has arrested opposition politicians before? He won't touch Guaido for now because of the optics, seems pretty obvious to me. The second he loses favour with America and drops out of the spotlight he's getting put away. I agree with you at the start, but at this point I don't think anyone in the US government would care (except maybe Bolton) if SEBIN suddenly "found" a bunch of grenades in Guaido's car. I mean hell tbh I think even in many Western governments he would have been arrested since he has openly fomented armed rebellion (albeit incompetently) and has called for foreign military invasion. Didn't some of the separatist leaders of Catalonia get arrested for way less than that? At this point, I think it's possible the PSUV might know Guaido is such a worthless shitbag that having him out sullying the name of the opposition is better than making him into a sacrificial lamb. I was all for him at the start in terms of "anyone but Maduro" and I still am borderline, but it's obvious he's a nincompoop. Also please stop quoting Yeowch My Balls. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 17:43
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, US sanctions are certainly having their intended effect and would be the biggest change with a new government.... I'm surprised global oil prices have remained relatively low too, as I'd expect all the Trump embargoes to push prices up. However global prices at this time of year are barely any different from 2016 or 17 and lower than they were in 2018. There's seemingly no prospect that Venezuelan state revenues will be able to stabilize in the near future. This is Venezuela's transition from an economy based on oil to one based on remittances.
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Jun 6, 2019 17:49
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fnox posted:I don't care. Legitimately, I don't give a poo poo about your fear mongering, I don't need it, I've seen enough bad poo poo already for me to say that Maduro is irredeemable, you haven't experienced them, you haven't felt them, you haven't seen them so you can't scare me. the US Special Envoy to Venezuela has a thirty-year record written in the blood of those suspected of insufficient faithfulness to their American betters, and the broken, ruined countries he left in his wake. it is not fantasy. it is a matter of recorded history. i have invented not a single action here: all are well-documented glories of Elliot Abrams' tenure. and you are begging for someone to bring that show in all its glory to your countrymen, in order to be rid of Maduro. the options here are "fool," "monster," or "someone who was wrong." i suggest the third. it may be helpful to guarantee the NEXT Guaido has a better sales pitch than "Let's Go Get Rid Of The Fucker Standing Between The US And Your Children's Skulls."
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Jun 6, 2019 17:58
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Squalid posted:I'm surprised global oil prices have remained relatively low too, as I'd expect all the Trump embargoes to push prices up. However global prices at this time of year are barely any different from 2016 or 17 and lower than they were in 2018. There's seemingly no prospect that Venezuelan state revenues will be able to stabilize in the near future. This is Venezuela's transition from an economy based on oil to one based on remittances. It is almost certainly due to a coming global slow down. That said there seems little evidence for the overthrow of the government at this point. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 18:16
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fnox posted:My argument is and has always been that we're better off rolling the dice on a new guy. I recall that also being the liberal interventionist argument for deposing Saddam, a roll of the dice had to be better than Saddam, right? whoops
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Jun 6, 2019 18:25
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fnox posted:Spare me your torture porn fantasies. Those aren't fantasies, Eliot Abrams literally funded and supported those exact acts and many others in South America, I'm sure he'll be able to tell you're one of the good ones tho
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Jun 6, 2019 18:28
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VitalSigns posted:Those aren't fantasies, Eliot Abrams literally funded and supported those exact acts and many others in South America, I'm sure he'll be able to tell you're one of the good ones tho I think it's more of a reference to how YMB very obviously gets off on rubbing people's noses in atrocities under the guise of virtue. Like when he got all judgy about people not wanting to share the shooter's footage from Christchurch. It's possible to bring up Abrams's litany of crimes without deriving quite such obvious sadistic pleasure from it, especially when talking to someone who actually has first-hand experience with murderous militias.
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Jun 6, 2019 18:35
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Darth Walrus posted:I think it's more of a reference to how YMB very obviously gets off on rubbing people's noses in atrocities under the guise of virtue. Like when he got all judgy about people not wanting to share the shooter's footage from Christchurch. It's possible to bring up Abrams's litany of crimes without deriving quite such obvious sadistic pleasure from it, especially when talking to someone who actually has first-hand experience with murderous militias. what a weird projection
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Jun 6, 2019 18:40
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sexpig by night posted:what a weird projection Check his rapsheet. It's pretty gross.
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Jun 6, 2019 18:41
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VitalSigns posted:I recall that also being the liberal interventionist argument for deposing Saddam, a roll of the dice had to be better than Saddam, right? Also Libya
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Jun 6, 2019 19:06
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