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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:When has Iran ever acted irrationally self-destructive before? Rent-A-Cop posted:Its government is ostensibly headed by dudes taking their instructions from an imaginary friend. Okay i'm gonna push back on this (fake edit: okay looks like WW was being non-sarcastic?), the "Iran is run by raving lunatics and/or apocalypse cultists" is absolutely 100% Western-fash propaganda. The regime are shitheads, but they're shitheads with a pretty good idea what they're doing whose top priority is to stay in power forever and ever amen. at least until khameini dies 
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Jun 14, 2019 19:53
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Okay i'm gonna push back on this (fake edit: okay looks like WW was being non-sarcastic?), the I don't disagree with your overall point, but Ahmadinejad was president for 8 years, and for most of it, he had the full support of the Supreme Leader. He only got tossed on his rear end because he got really close with Mashaei and started to forget his place. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Jun 14, 2019 |
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Jun 14, 2019 20:15
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Okay i'm gonna push back on this (fake edit: okay looks like WW was being non-sarcastic?), the "It seemed like a good idea at the time" has started plenty of conflicts that were exceptionally bad ideas.
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Jun 14, 2019 20:18
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Not trying to say they're wacky cartoon nutters. Just pointing out that acts that seem irrational to outside observers may seem perfectly rational to actors in the context of a religious authoritarian political structure. yeah. i think while there are a bunch of more "pragmatic" monsters in the regeme. their are enough weird religious/uber nationalist psychos in their ranks that will be calling for more violent actions and foriegn incusions. the west isn't the only place to have weird monster like bolton/rumsfeld/pompeo/huckabee/etc. i am sure iran has plenty of them too.
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Jun 14, 2019 20:25
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Whether or not the video is specifically fake, there's about a dozen different layers on which it is weird or potentially manipulated and more layers on which it just doesn't make much sense. Like sure it is possible that Iran is the only country on the planet able to source boats that look like that, but that fact doesn't say anything about the 15 different reasons why it is contrary to iranian interest to gently caress with random ships in the straits of hormuz. Meanwhile there are a ton of groups with, as they'd say in a murder investigation, motive means and opportunity who are all interested in pinning it on Iran. Also just as a reminder, who the gently caress is releasing that level of grainy, lovely video in loving 2019. The US has a 1440p video of that somewhere if they recorded it and the fact that a 120p version is being released in 2019 should say something Rent-A-Cop posted:Not trying to say they're wacky cartoon nutters. Just pointing out that acts that seem irrational to outside observers may seem perfectly rational to actors in the context of a religious authoritarian political structure. This is a statement about Pompeo, I assume. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Jun 14, 2019 |
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Jun 14, 2019 20:26
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
So the US Navy.
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Jun 14, 2019 20:31
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Why is this petty political slap-fight between inbred nobles and religious fanatics not being handled in a logical manner??? not sure if you are talking about iran or the us right now
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Jun 14, 2019 20:35
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Whether or not the video is specifically fake, there's about a dozen different layers on which it is weird or potentially manipulated and more layers on which it just doesn't make much sense. Like sure it is possible that Iran is the only country on the planet able to source boats that look like that, but that fact doesn't say anything about the 15 different reasons why it is contrary to iranian interest to gently caress with random ships in the straits of hormuz. Yeah it's almost as though releasing a grainy and context free video clip to an audience of non-experts while saying "that boat looks Iranian" - all in the midst of a huge US government push to start a war with Iran - is kind of irresponsible and maybe indicates one of the more problematic aspects of so called "open source journalism".
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Jun 14, 2019 20:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:This is a statement about Pompeo, I assume. Feldegast42 posted:not sure if you are talking about iran or the us right now
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Jun 14, 2019 20:40
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Au Revoir Shosanna posted:https://twitter.com/OpWolverines/status/1139497243323465729 here Rent-A-Cop posted:People using digital zoom on IR optics from the 1980s. Don't be obtuse, even 30 year old air frames have modern optics. That footage is normally in a resolution where you can tell what body parts are flying off of people from miles away. And the optics were of extremely high quality back then, fyi. Often higher quality because digital sensors weren't even a thing yet.
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Jun 14, 2019 20:43
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Helsing posted:Yeah it's almost as though releasing a grainy and context free video clip to an audience of non-experts while saying "that boat looks Iranian" - all in the midst of a huge US government push to start a war with Iran - is kind of irresponsible and maybe indicates one of the more problematic aspects of so called "open source journalism". BM didn't ~release~ anything. Kinda irresponsible and touches on one of the more problematic aspects of so called "alternative media." Volkerball fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Jun 14, 2019 |
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Jun 14, 2019 20:48
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Volkerball posted:BM didn't ~release~ anything. Kinda irresponsible and touches on one of the more problematic aspects of so called "alternative media." Was going to say this. As has been said in the thread, the source is Centcom, published by WaPo. About as mainstream media as you can get. It seems like these Japanese tankers were attacked while Khamenei was sitting down with Abe. Quite the timing.
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Jun 14, 2019 20:57
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:After the failure of INSTEX, I'm absolutely certain Iran wouldn't be rolling the dice on war and pinning their hopes on the Europeans meaningfully breaking from the US. Wait, when did this fail? quote:Ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK to Iran released a joint statement on Friday underscoring the commitments of their governments to launch the first transaction soon with Iran using the much-touted EU financial mechanism. https://financialtribune.com/articles/business-and-markets/98436/e3-to-soon-deliver-first-instex-transaction
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Jun 14, 2019 21:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:here I've worked on multiple camera systems that have looked like that, or worse, for the Navy. I've also worked on ones that look better. Depends entirely on the platform that took it, and what systems were available at the time.
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Jun 14, 2019 21:06
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Well yes, thank you for reiterating information that was directly contained in the tweet we all saw a page ago. Fixating on the linguistic distinction between "posting" and "releasing" is not the strong defense that you might imagine it to be.
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Jun 14, 2019 21:09
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Helsing posted:Well yes, thank you for reiterating information that was directly contained in the tweet we all saw a page ago. Fixating on the linguistic distinction between "posting" and "releasing" is not the strong defense that you might imagine it to be. There's nothing to defend against. It was just a lazy smear. Of course the video should be posted and discussed, otherwise what the gently caress are we even doing here? To try and spin him posting it as some sort of commentary on the credibility of reports he's made in the past is just you having a bone to pick over unrelated poo poo. Probably the factually accurate reports he and bellingcat did on the war crimes perpetrated by the Assad regime that pissed off all the Rania Khalek type apologists you respect.
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Jun 14, 2019 21:37
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Rania Khalek's great, i'd trust her over Bolton and Pompeo any day.
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Jun 14, 2019 21:50
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Volkerball posted:There's nothing to defend against. It was just a lazy smear. Of course the video should be posted and discussed, otherwise what the gently caress are we even doing here? To try and spin him posting it as some sort of commentary on the credibility of reports he's made in the past is just you having a bone to pick over unrelated poo poo. Probably the factually accurate reports he and bellingcat did on the war crimes perpetrated by the Assad regime that pissed off all the Rania Khalek type apologists you respect. The only thing we can reliably know about that video is that the US government wanted us to see it. Discussions that try to go far beyond that are very likely to end up in the realm of wild speculation where people like yourself project whatever you want to see.
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Jun 14, 2019 21:54
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https://twitter.com/barbarastarrcnn/status/1139628711228182533
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Jun 14, 2019 21:57
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Helsing posted:The only thing we can reliably know about that video is that the US government wanted us to see it. Discussions that try to go far beyond that are very likely to end up in the realm of wild speculation where people like yourself project whatever you want to see. So your definition of ~responsible posting~ is to not include anything that might be biased? Yeah that sounds reasonable. For content, I'm reminded that there have recently been big, public disputes in Iran's foreign policy apparatus, as shown by the surprise resignation of Zarif a few months ago. His resignation wasn't accepted, but hardliners cheered his departure. I think this lends a bit of credibility to IRGC responsibility, though it's still a bit hard to credit. Once the ship's are taken to port they can be forensically examined. Presumably a limpet mine, drive attack or torpedo would leave different sorts of holes.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:02
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Brown Moses posted:Is there anything incorrect about what I've shared? Yes, the tweet you shared has this conclusion quote:You can simply see here that #IRGC Navy Special Forces used one of their fast boats to sail toward the damaged Oil tanker and destroy the evidence of their attack which was one of the two Limpet Mines those they had attached to the ship while it was passing the... Which is untrue. No one can simply see that it’s the Iranian navy conclusively. Simply that it could be one of their boats. Or not. The fact you don’t recognize this is pretty indicative of a bias of some sort.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:03
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Helsing posted:The only thing we can reliably know about that video is that the US government wanted us to see it. Discussions that try to go far beyond that are very likely to end up in the realm of wild speculation where people like yourself project whatever you want to see. Are you not interested in knowing what the US governments wants us to see? I am. I'm also interested in knowing what the Iranian government wants us to know and see. If you don't look at their official statements and positions how will you be able to interpret their intentions?
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Jun 14, 2019 22:08
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One of the few things that you can take as axiomatic about Iran's ruling council and their foreign policy is that their number one goal is staying in power. Getting regime changed and then ending up like Gaddaffi or Saddam in a futile war against the US is so wildly outside of any of their known goals that it's impossible to come up with any reasoning for this 'attack.' Now groups that would looooooove to get into a shooting war with Iran include SA, Israel, and a fuckton of neocons eg Bolton and Pompeo et al Of note, that the mine came flying in supposedly is really weird.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:18
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:John Bolton doesn't have to worry about an existential threat to the US government from the war. At absolute best for Iran it leads to the US having to turn tail. They can't gain anything from a war with the US. What do you mean? That the United States doesn't face the threat of essential annihilation? That's true however the primary concern is that Iran obtains a Nuclear Weapon. It's not so much that they use it but they're unable to keep it from crazy hardliners, they get, smuggle it into the United States and that's that.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:18
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Tab8715 posted:What do you mean? That the United States doesn't face the threat of essential annihilation? See my post above, Iran isn't nuking the US, Iran wants nukes entirely for defensive reasons as they have 3 enemies who have declared a desire to destroy Iran. Iranian experts I've talked to honestly think that Iran nuking their own people in the event that one of the major cities rises up against the ruling council is more likely than iran ever using a nuke outside of their borders. LIterally no one in Iran wants an Iranian nuke to go off in the US because they know exactly how the response will go PneumonicBook posted:I've worked on multiple camera systems that have looked like that, or worse, for the Navy. Yeah obviously they have both, the irony is that in the biggest global hotspot right now at the most significant moment they've got some kids 240p webcam image cap going on the 'Iranian naval special forces ordinance recovery team' Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Jun 14, 2019 |
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Jun 14, 2019 22:21
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Volkerball posted:I don't disagree with your overall point, but Ahmadinejad was president for 8 years, and for most of it, he had the full support of the Supreme Leader. He only got tossed on his rear end because he got really close with Mashaei and started to forget his place. There were a bunch of other contributing factors imo, which can be summed up as "he was rocking the boat and making it more difficult and/or expensive for the regime to keep everything in order". The start of his downward slope might have been when he visibly (rather than the traditional passively) rigged his reelection (iirc, might have been a parliament election, phoneposting) and ROYALLY pissed off the security services because it caused serious unrest.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:27
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Count Roland posted:So your definition of ~responsible posting~ is to not include anything that might be biased? Yeah that sounds reasonable. No, my definition of responsible journalism would be that a guy who literally sells his organization as being a restraint on state military power ("belling the cat") probably shouldn't wildly speculate about a situation where we lack reliable information and where his speculation could very easily aid the US government's drive for a war with Iran. Squalid posted:Are you not interested in knowing what the US governments wants us to see? I am. I'm also interested in knowing what the Iranian government wants us to know and see. If you don't look at their official statements and positions how will you be able to interpret their intentions? I think that's exactly the kind of discussion that is appropriate to a thread like this. What I don't think is particularly appropriate is pretending that we can meaningfully look at this video and a handful of other photos of ship hulls and then start drawing meaningful conclusions about the attack or who was behind it. Sticking to the media side of things and focusing more on the propaganda / information warfare aspect of the Middle East is a way of keeping the thread grounded in things that people here are actually capable of talking about in an at least semi-informed manner.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:32
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Seeing my opinion matters so much to some of you, here's my opinion on the incident in the New York Times: https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1139642056538804224
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Jun 14, 2019 22:41
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If it's true that Iran is behind the attack, I want to know it. If it's not true, I want to know it. The Trump administration does not factor into this calculation at all. I don't care who the truth benefits, and I'm not in favor of obscuring the truth in the name of opposing dipshits like John Bolton who aren't dictating policy. There are a number of things that can be found by examining videos like this. Does it show what it claims to show? Is it filmed where it is said to be from? Does anything that is happening in the video and what is claimed to be happening in the video contradict other evidence that we have? All of this can help to find out the truth, or at least, expose some lies, and that's all worth discussing, especially as more details come out. This is the root of grounded discussion, not uninformed theories and speculation about information war and propaganda.
Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Jun 14, 2019 |
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Jun 14, 2019 22:48
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Herstory Begins Now posted:See my post above, Iran isn't nuking the US, Iran wants nukes entirely for defensive reasons as they have 3 enemies who have declared a desire to destroy Iran. Iranian experts I've talked to honestly think that Iran nuking their own people in the event that one of the major cities rises up against the ruling council is more likely than iran ever using a nuke outside of their borders. Except Iran has repeatedly stated it's express desire to destroy Israel. Ahmedinajad, when he was president said it on many occasions. I definitely think that Israel and the US are playing a war mongering game here with at least the aim of choking Iran's economy if not an outright hot war, but a little bit of accuracy would be nice.
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Jun 14, 2019 22:53
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Unimpressed posted:Except Iran has repeatedly stated it's express desire to destroy Israel. Ahmedinajad, when he was president said it on many occasions. I definitely think that Israel and the US are playing a war mongering game here with at least the aim of choking Iran's economy if not an outright hot war, but a little bit of accuracy would be nice. Ahmadinejad's presidential public utterances are not necessarily to be taken as indicative of the actual regime attitude, especially now that he's been thoroughly ousted. If it helps, think of him as a Donald Trump who doesn't actually have supreme executive power. Indicative of a deeply worrying element in Iranian society, sure, and tolerated by the real powers, and that's bad, but not the be all end all. The official attitude on Israel is more complicated. (iirc it's still "the area's governance should be decided by the descendants of people who inhabited the area in 1945 or whatever")
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Jun 14, 2019 22:57
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Helsing posted:I think that's exactly the kind of discussion that is appropriate to a thread like this. What I don't think is particularly appropriate is pretending that we can meaningfully look at this video and a handful of other photos of ship hulls and then start drawing meaningful conclusions about the attack or who was behind it. Sticking to the media side of things and focusing more on the propaganda / information warfare aspect of the Middle East is a way of keeping the thread grounded in things that people here are actually capable of talking about in an at least semi-informed manner. Yeah I mean I can't tell what the gently caress is happening in that video. Of course, we also can't draw any conclusions based on nebulous assumptions about the motives and reasoning of Iranian and American leaders, which is what a lot of other people are doing. I don't know why so many people think they are experts on Khomeini and other Iranian leaders's beliefs about what is or isn't in their interest. I know that I am not, I struggle enough just to understand Trump's decision making process. Maybe I'm just too dumb for all the resident big brains here though, who using logic and their perfect knowledge of everyone's rational self interest can exactly predict all that everyone will do. It almost seems unnecessary now even to look for evidence in this base material world, as reason alone is apparently sufficient for our resident geniuses to resolve all uncertainty.
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Jun 14, 2019 23:01
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Volkerball posted:If it's true that Iran is behind the attack, I want to know it. If it's not true, I want to know it. Yeah, that's my attitude.
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Jun 14, 2019 23:03
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relatedly this all is why I'm terrified to talk about Iran in CSPAM because there's a chance I'd go full Typo in the looser and more comedic environment and become indistinguishable from an actual sincere IRI shill and that's bad
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Jun 14, 2019 23:04
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https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1139650797703172096 https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1139654576678821889
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Jun 14, 2019 23:12
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Oh balls.
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Jun 14, 2019 23:21
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I just skimmed through the wiki for Katyusha rockets, and apparently one landed in the Green Zone back on may 19th, as well.
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Jun 14, 2019 23:27
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Unimpressed posted:Except Iran has repeatedly stated it's express desire to destroy Israel. Ahmedinajad, when he was president said it on many occasions. I definitely think that Israel and the US are playing a war mongering game here with at least the aim of choking Iran's economy if not an outright hot war, but a little bit of accuracy would be nice. mar gbar america or mar gbar israel are not literal statements of political and military policy. If you really think that Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map I suggest consuming less American and Israeli and Saudi propaganda
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Jun 15, 2019 00:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:See my post above, Iran isn't nuking the US, Iran wants nukes entirely for defensive reasons as they have 3 enemies who have declared a desire to destroy Iran. Iranian experts I've talked to honestly think that Iran nuking their own people in the event that one of the major cities rises up against the ruling council is more likely than iran ever using a nuke outside of their borders. I understand the intent for defense but I don't see how that removes the risks the weapons could fall into the wrong hands. On the other hand, why in the hell would they actually Nuke one of their own cities? Why not use the army to take control back over?
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Jun 15, 2019 00:56
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Herstory Begins Now posted:mar gbar america or mar gbar israel are not literal statements of political and military policy. If you really think that Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map I suggest consuming less American and Israeli and Saudi propaganda If you're interpreting the phrase "death to America" as an expression of the Iranian government's desire to reconcile its policy differences and live in peace and contentment with the United States you may have some issues with propaganda consumption yourself. It may not be an expression of immediate intent but it's certainly one of aspiration or at least desire. When Iranian hardliners state that they believe that America and Israel are forces of evil that ought to be destroyed, you can safely take them at their word.
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Jun 15, 2019 01:19
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