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Gotdamn. Sounds like they need an open election.
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Jun 20, 2019 08:29
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Randarkman posted:Alot of them did though? Not really. The turnout was pretty disappointing, even by the opposition's own admission.
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Jun 20, 2019 08:30
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Majorian posted:But again, as you yourself have said multiple times, a free and fair election is not in the cards anytime soon. The public would support him in a free and fair election above Maduro; they would not, and did not, support him in his attempted coup. The idea is to call for elections within 30 days of removing him. Nobody said that Guaido would stay for a full presidential term without elections. That’s what the constitution says the interim president should do. The fact that elections are not gonna happen is sort of why the opposition seems ineffective. They literally have no other option but to insist for it, because the alternative is armed confrontation.
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Jun 20, 2019 09:24
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fnox posted:The idea is to call for elections within 30 days of removing him. Nobody said that Guaido would stay for a full presidential term without elections. That’s what the constitution says the interim president should do. Well, but a lot of "interim presidents" throughout history have come into power through a coup, promised that they would hold elections in 30 days and then step down...and then just completely reneged on those promises. And this is, of course, assuming that enough of the military helps overthrow Maduro but then doesn't just say, "lol gently caress you" to Guaido and seizes power directly.
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Jun 20, 2019 09:36
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If that happens, and Maduro gets removed by the people, we’ll remove Guaido too. We’ll cross that hurdle once we come to it. To note, that’s extremely unlikely to happen, precisely because he’s not extremely popular. He would have to lead a divided country with a military that would likely not fully back him. The most likely scenario would be that he would get couped a couple years in.
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Jun 20, 2019 09:59
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Anyway, it effectively shows an impasse, while Guaido would win an election, that likely wouldn't happen while Maduro is around and at the same time, it is apparent there seems to be little interest in directly overthrowing Maduro. In addition, it seems most of the public sees the sanctions as directly damaging their quality of life.
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Jun 20, 2019 14:09
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Ardennes posted:Anyway, it effectively shows an impasse, while Guaido would win an election, that likely wouldn't happen while Maduro is around and at the same time, it is apparent there seems to be little interest in directly overthrowing Maduro. In addition, it seems most of the public sees the sanctions as directly damaging their quality of life. Who is saying that there isn’t an interest in directly overthrowing Maduro? There isn’t a way to do it anymore, not by civilians. The only way to get anywhere would be through an agreement between government and opposition, which is unlikely. Another thing none of you want to bring up is that the people interviewed put the economy, healthcare, public services, corruption, crime, exodus and their own emotional crises as being more important than the political crisis. The reason why nobody seems to be giving a poo poo about Guaido is not because they’re marxists, it’s because they’re struggling to survive in a crumbling country. You’re expecting them to go out and protest when they’ve got so much going on, and all of that stuff is Maduro’s fault. fnox fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Jun 20, 2019 |
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Jun 20, 2019 14:45
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fnox posted:Who is saying that there isn’t an interest in directly overthrowing Maduro? There isn’t a way to do it anymore, not by civilians. The only way to get anywhere would be through an agreement between government and opposition, which is unlikely. Admittedly, according to the polls, most people also think at least partially it is the sanctions. Also, I don’t really buy that they want to overthrow the government outside of elections but are too preoccupied otherwise.
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Jun 20, 2019 15:06
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Ardennes posted:Admittedly, according to the polls, most people also think at least partially it is the sanctions. Also, I don’t really buy that they want to overthrow the government outside of elections but are too preoccupied otherwise. You don’t buy it? Ok, read the poll. What do you expect them to do? Again, PDVSA is not gonna shut down, so there’s no way to stop their money flow, they have all the guns, they’re unafraid to kill, they’ve removed any and all options that exist in the constitution. What are people supposed to do now?
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Jun 20, 2019 15:10
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fnox posted:If that happens, and Maduro gets removed by the people, we’ll remove Guaido too. We’ll cross that hurdle once we come to it. Yeah but you can't even get rid of Maduro. You'd have a divided and fatigued populace and at the very best a split military. This is just bluster.
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Jun 20, 2019 15:32
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fnox posted:You don’t buy it? Ok, read the poll. If anything the poll seems to support additional dialogue not direct overthrow of the government.
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Jun 20, 2019 15:57
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Ardennes posted:If anything the poll seems to support additional dialogue not direct overthrow of the government. 66% are pessimistic about the current dialogue and negotiations going on between government and opposition, what are you talking about? WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Yeah but you can't even get rid of Maduro. You'd have a divided and fatigued populace and at the very best a split military. This is just bluster. I don’t see how that denies the possibility of getting rid of Maduro. A split country was what Venezuela was for the majority of Chavez’ rule. We can live with that, Venezuelan democracy can be reformed to accept a more pluralistic rule. fnox fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Jun 20, 2019 |
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Jun 20, 2019 16:15
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fnox posted:66% are pessimistic about the current dialogue and negotiations going on between government and opposition, what are you talking about? 60% support an agreement between the government and opposition, it is possible to support something and be pessimistic it will happen. Also what does pluralistic rule mean after Maduro is gone?
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Jun 20, 2019 16:26
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Ardennes posted:60% support an agreement between the government and opposition, it is possible to support something and be pessimistic it will happen. 60% support an agreement between government and opposition to choose a new CNE and National Assembly. That means elections. Elections now rather than later, and that are supervised by all parties as well as international actors. That means Maduro gets displace from power peacefully ASAP, that’s how you interpret that poll, that’s what everyone wants. Pluralistic rule would be like a parliamentary democracy. Remove powers from the president, and assign them to parliament. Force these split parties to have to agree with each other.
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Jun 20, 2019 16:33
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fnox posted:I don’t see how that denies the possibility of getting rid of Maduro. A split country was what Venezuela was for the majority of Chavez’ rule. We can live with that, Venezuelan democracy can be reformed to accept a more pluralistic rule. What? The scenario was one where Venezuelan democracy was subverted by a coup and Guaido chose not to convene elections. You said you'd just overthrow them again.
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Jun 20, 2019 16:35
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With Maduro entrenched in Venezuela, Trump loses patience and interest in issue, officials say Tried to copy the article but it got all hosed up on my mobile device. tl;dr is that like I suspected a while back, the US (And especially Trump) saw Venezuela as a cheap and easy vehicle for a foreign policy 'win,' and now that it's not so cheap and easy Trump just doesn't care anymore.
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Jun 20, 2019 16:57
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:What? The scenario was one where Venezuelan democracy was subverted by a coup and Guaido chose not to convene elections. You said you'd just overthrow them again. You sure nothing else happened that subverted democracy before then? Everything was fine. Acebuckeye13 posted:With Maduro entrenched in Venezuela, Trump loses patience and interest in issue, officials say Great. We’re back to being ignored. Now I’m fully sure the crisis will just escalate into conflict.
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Jun 20, 2019 17:33
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Acebuckeye13 posted:6. 54% do not consider international military intervention in Venezuela possible. Am I reading this right? Does this mean that almost half of Venezuelans are considering a U.S. intervention, or is the question phrased as "whether or not the U.S. will invade Venezuela or not?"
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Jun 20, 2019 17:37
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punk rebel ecks posted:Am I reading this right? Does this mean that almost half of Venezuelans are considering a U.S. intervention, or is the question phrased as "whether or not the U.S. will invade Venezuela or not?" They do not think its going to happen. That’s what the question asks.
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Jun 20, 2019 17:51
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fnox posted:Great. We’re back to being ignored. Now I’m fully sure the crisis will just escalate into conflict. As opposed to what? Do you think the crisis wouldn't have escalated into conflict if the U.S. got more involved? The threat of outside intervention galvanized support for Maduro (or at least opposition to his opponents) considerably.
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Jun 20, 2019 18:16
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fnox posted:You sure nothing else happened that subverted democracy before then? Everything was fine. Well I wasn't going to count that Guaido's 30 days are already up and he's still calling himself interim president, but if you want to.
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Jun 20, 2019 18:18
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Well I wasn't going to count that Guaido's 30 days are already up and he's still calling himself interim president, but if you want to. So I guess that you don't have any thoughts on the regime's establishment of a parallel rubber stamp legislative body?
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Jun 20, 2019 18:21
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This is pretty interesting video. This is a travel youtuber who just went to VZ and profiled his experience. Its a good video because this guy is just a travel vlogger and has no political blogging experience. Check out how the prices are as of June 2019. A loving hotdog is 10,000 bolivares. A hamburger is 25,000. The minimum wage for the month is 40,000. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jN5LZR4ejkg&t=499s Also 1 USD gets you 6000 bolivares. Your earning power on minimum wage is like 6 bucks a month.
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Jun 20, 2019 18:23
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Giggle Goose posted:So I guess that you don't have any thoughts on the regime's establishment of a parallel rubber stamp legislative body? That the opposition should probably have run in the elections if they wanted to be represented.
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Jun 20, 2019 18:28
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:That the opposition should probably have run in the elections if they wanted to be represented. They were banned from running. gently caress me we’re back to square one, aren’t we?
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Jun 20, 2019 19:29
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fnox posted:They were banned from running. gently caress me we’re back to square one, aren’t we? Oh don't worry I'm sure that it will get brought up again as though the conversation hasn't already happened numerous times.
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Jun 20, 2019 20:33
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:That the opposition should probably have run in the elections if they wanted to be represented. Your talk of Venezuela's election there sound like someone who would say "the KPD should have just run in the March 1933 election".
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Jun 20, 2019 22:33
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zapplez posted:This is pretty interesting video. This is a travel youtuber who just went to VZ and profiled his experience. Its a good video because this guy is just a travel vlogger and has no political blogging experience. Check out how the prices are as of June 2019. A loving hotdog is 10,000 bolivares. A hamburger is 25,000. The minimum wage for the month is 40,000. For all in intents and purposes, Venezuela doesn't have an effective minimum wage and probably won't until the Bolivar stabilizes (or fully dollarizes). Btw, that is probably the only time I have seen a full and largely relatively unedited video of life in Venezuela. It is only in Caracas but it is turning some gears in my head.
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Jun 20, 2019 22:46
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It is so bizarre to see the Callejón de la Puñalada completely deserted like that. In general, it’s a weird thing to look at, it’s the Chacao I grew up with, only with like, a quarter of the people there should be. I actually love this video. I think it illustrates exactly what I am saying, that things in Venezuela don’t work like you guys think it does, it’s the exact opposite of a socialist state, people who earn dollars are fine, people who don’t are hosed. It’s actually worse than with the neoliberals. There’s starvation, but you can get KFC or McDonalds if you want. The one thing that universally fucks everyone over is healthcare, since even basic treatment can cost thousands of dollars. Well, that and the absurd amount of crime. It’s amazing to actually show you all footage of the subway. This is nowhere near as packed as it used to be, I’m assuming due to less people working and less people being there. The absolute loving mass of people that formed at 5pm there was actually absurd. And yes things like carrying your backpack on your front as well as being extra careful there are things regular citizens have to worry about too. I didn’t know it was still made free though, what a shitshow.
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Jun 21, 2019 01:04
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fnox posted:I think it illustrates exactly what I am saying, that things in Venezuela don’t work like you guys think it does, it’s the exact opposite of a socialist state, people who earn dollars are fine, people who don’t are hosed. People ITT don't actually view it as a functional socialist state.
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Jun 21, 2019 01:08
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Majorian posted:People ITT don't actually view it as a functional socialist state. What exactly do they view it as? Because the neoliberal hellscape keeps getting brought up and it resembles reality pretty drat closely.
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Jun 21, 2019 01:15
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fnox posted:What exactly do they view it as? Because the neoliberal hellscape keeps getting brought up and it resembles reality pretty drat closely. For the most part, a neoliberal hellscape that was once a functioning although imperfect democratic socialist state. No one here is unclear on the fact that Venezuela is not a fun place to live right now. But at the very least, there isn't a U.S.-backed puppet teaming up with Bolsonaro to bloodily stamp out socialism in Latin America. Which is, after all, the reason why Bolton et al. wanted to get involved in the first place. They weren't bringing up the Monroe Doctrine and nostalgically recounting the Condor Years because they want what's best for the Venezuelan people.
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Jun 21, 2019 01:32
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Majorian posted:For the most part, a neoliberal hellscape that was once a functioning although imperfect democratic socialist state. Agreed, Maduro is unambiguously a right wing dictator who has destroyed social welfare in Venezuela.
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Jun 21, 2019 01:58
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fishmech posted:Agreed, Maduro is unambiguously a right wing dictator who has destroyed social welfare in Venezuela. I know you're trying to score some sick burns but that's literally what he's getting at.
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Jun 21, 2019 02:25
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A big flaming stink posted:I know you're trying to score some sick burns but that's literally what he's getting at. Yep, although "right wing" is probably not entirely accurate. Maduro doesn't strike me as terribly ideological.
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Jun 21, 2019 02:32
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Majorian posted:Yep, although "right wing" is probably not entirely accurate. Maduro doesn't strike me as terribly ideological. "statist"
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Jun 21, 2019 03:20
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fnox posted:They were banned from running. gently caress me we’re back to square one, aren’t we? They weren't banned. They had the very similar conditions put on them as in many Westminster systems. A party must show it has support before it can be placed on the ballot. It has to do this first by showing it has enough members (0.5% of voters in each state), then after that it can show it by its percentage of votes won in an election (1% of votes cast). If you refuse to participate in an election and then want to contest the next one, obviously you have to redo the former process. WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 03:59
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fnox posted:What exactly do they view it as? As the reality of dictatorial "anti-imperialist" socialism, which looks a hell of a lot like the left's worst fears about unchecked capitalism, and not so much like the fantasy of what dictatorial anti-imperialist socialism would be if the anime appraisers were in charge.
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Jun 21, 2019 04:13
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:They weren't banned. They had the very similar conditions put on them as in many Westminster systems. A party must show it has support before it can be placed on the ballot. It has to do this first by showing it has enough members (0.5% of voters in each state), then after that it can show it by its percentage of votes won in an election (1% of votes cast). If you refuse to participate in an election and then want to contest the next one, obviously you have to redo the former process. Next you're gonna tell us that being a member or leader of a political party doesn't shield you from liability if you participate in armed insurrection or assassinations.
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Jun 21, 2019 04:35
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:They weren't banned. They had the very similar conditions put on them as in many Westminster systems. A party must show it has support before it can be placed on the ballot. It has to do this first by showing it has enough members (0.5% of voters in each state), then after that it can show it by its percentage of votes won in an election (1% of votes cast). If you refuse to participate in an election and then want to contest the next one, obviously you have to redo the former process. I understand you probably haven't been following Venezuelan politics for too long, so please believe me that if you actually dive into the details, this line of argument is a crock of absolute poo poo.* The opposition got hosed when the followed the rules. The opposition got hosed when they protested the rules. The opposition got hosed because the rules only matter when the PSUV say they matter, typically when they benefit the PSUV. And if they don't, the rules can be changed, or ignored, or new ones can be made up on the spot. It didn't matter whether the opposition did or didn't participate in those elections, they weren't going to be allowed to win regardless, and that is the problem. *Please note I am not trying to insult you, just that line of argumentation, because it's been brought up by many, many people throughout this thread who weren't here for events like the recall effort and don't understand how stacked the system was/is. Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 04:46 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 04:43
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