Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

Pembroke Fuse: Dec 29, 2008

Ardennes posted:

Part of it is that since the pension reforms, discontent has been rapidly growing and Golunov case has been a lighting rod for previously apolitical people.

I think its also the case that Russians are becoming, again, very good at engaging in "non-political politics". During the Soviet period, you couldn't directly complain about how the state was handling/mismanaging things, so you re-framed your discontent as a non-political issue (even though everything was and is a political issue) or some specific local problem. This doesn't always work, of course, since it fails to address systemic issues... but the recent Yekaterinburg protest shows that very local, very outwardly apolitical protest may work.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 16:39

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# ? May 12, 2024 14:12

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Pembroke Fuse posted:

I think its also the case that Russians are becoming, again, very good at engaging in "non-political politics". During the Soviet period, you couldn't directly complain about how the state was handling/mismanaging things, so you re-framed your discontent as a non-political issue (even though everything was and is a political issue) or some specific local problem. This doesn't always work, of course, since it fails to address systemic issues... but the recent Yekaterinburg protest shows that very local, very outwardly apolitical protest may work.

At the same time, the general feeling I have been getting from people is a more to �national-bolshevikism� than it is western liberalism. Stalin has only continued to become has continued to become more popular for a reason.

So it is both non-political but political but the frame of those politics is a bit blurred from a western perspective.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 16:58

Pembroke Fuse: Dec 29, 2008

Ardennes posted:

At the same time, the general feeling I have been getting from people is a more to �national-bolshevikism� than it is western liberalism. Stalin has only continued to become has continued to become more popular for a reason.

So it is both non-political but political but the frame of those politics is a bit blurred from a western perspective.

Yes, there is absolutely an undercurrent of "nationalist socialism" in those protests (i.e. how come the state isn't discharging its responsibility and taking care of Russia?)

The "non-political politics" is just an external form or vehicle to get those concerns across.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 17:28

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Glad to see that framing job getting rightfully clowned on. The police couldn't manage to have as little as a coherent internal stance on the matter.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 18:07

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

So what happens if the Communist Party were to get a majority in the Duma, presumably post-Putin? Would the Soviet Union exist again and try to revamp the cold war? Or am I overestimating their capabilities?

# ? Jun 11, 2019 19:16

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Grouchio posted:

So what happens if the Communist Party were to get a majority in the Duma, presumably post-Putin? Would the Soviet Union exist again and try to revamp the cold war? Or am I overestimating their capabilities?

You are overestimating them by a cosmic margin. What in reality would happen is slight increase in pensions, but just enough not to piss off the siloviki. Maybe more subsidies for Transnistria.

Don't imagine though that CPRF has any kind of shot at getting anywhere important.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 19:27

Pembroke Fuse: Dec 29, 2008

Grouchio posted:

So what happens if the Communist Party were to get a majority in the Duma, presumably post-Putin? Would the Soviet Union exist again and try to revamp the cold war? Or am I overestimating their capabilities?

The Communist Party RF doesn't really have any serious ideas or candidates either. Like, their best hope in 2018 was ridiculously wealthy strawberry farm owner Pavel Grudinin...

Maxim Suryakin, Communists of Russia posted:

According to the 2015 Declaration, Grudinin's interest-only income amounted to 752 million rubles. Can you imagine how much money he has? Plus, he's the owner of the farm, which in itself is worth several billion rubles. This is a real billionaire. Very large. And I would understand if he were to give his income to the party, for the benefit of the Communist cause. There are, after all, decent people who earn a lot. But just yesterday he was a member of "United Russia". If a person earned billions, if the person was in the ruling party (United Russia), and then suddenly change one's shoes to be in the Communists that, to put it mildly, is strange. A variety of questions immediately arises. Therefore, it is clear that a large part of the potential electorate would not support such a candidate.

Leftism is in kind of a disarray in Russia right now, bouncing between nationalism and a variety of other unsavoury issues.

# ? Jun 11, 2019 22:41

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Grouchio posted:

So what happens if the Communist Party were to get a majority in the Duma, presumably post-Putin? Would the Soviet Union exist again and try to revamp the cold war? Or am I overestimating their capabilities?

Last time CPRF got the majority in Parliament we got the 1998 crisis

also at the moment they are literally a walking corpse of a boomer party selling seats in regional parliaments to millionaires and not opposing any cuts to social programs on the federal level

# ? Jun 11, 2019 23:28

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Last year, CPRF's candidate was about to win a rigged local election that United Russia's guy was supposed to win, so they had to moonwalk it all back so hard, people protested, lmao.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2018_Primorsky_Krai_gubernatorial_election

# ? Jun 12, 2019 00:59

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Ardennes posted:

At the same time, the general feeling I have been getting from people is a more to “national-bolshevikism” than it is western liberalism. Stalin has only continued to become has continued to become more popular for a reason.

Wait who made Limonov relevant again (or ever)?

# ? Jun 12, 2019 03:39

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Basically, it is developing on its own without Limonov himself.

If anything it is growing anger that has developed outside any formal structure. The CPRF is a shell of itself and I doubt will have a major impact one way or another.

Also anger at the Church has people far more mainstream in recent years.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 04:35

Pembroke Fuse: Dec 29, 2008

Ardennes posted:

Basically, it is developing on its own without Limonov himself.

This. If you ever watch a popular Youtube movie-reviewer dude named BadComedian (Yevgenii), he spends a lot of time trashing films funded by MinCult (ministry of culture). He's given a few rare interviews where he talks about his politics (which are reflected in the specific ways that he criticizes much of the modern Russian film industry) and most of it is a combination of nationalism and socialist nostalgia - both for late Soviet films and at least the perceived stability of the later-era USSR.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 04:59

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

So I met an old friend of my grandpa's, another very old Hungarian man. He told us his general life story, about how I stayed in Hungary after the soviets came and they ruined his family and stripped them of everything because they were religious. He tried to seminary school to become a priest but the communists shut it down. Then he went to some other school for priests that hadn't been shut down but at the last moment decided the life of a priest wasn't for him because he wanted a family. Eventually he immigrated to Canada to get away from those repressive communists and what they did to his poor innocent religious family.

That's his version.

From other hungarian immigrants of the era though it's a very different story. They say he was a bigwig in the Hungarian communist party and had a powerful well connected family. He him self was part of the Hungarian KGB or what ever, which is why, unlike all of them who had to escape the country, he was able to come and go and visit when ever he wanted. He was always going back home to visit family without any fuss. The local hungarian community didn't trust him and generally feared him and thought he was in canada to keep an eye on the Hungarian diaspora with consequences for their families back home if he didn't like what he saw.

Kinda hosed up how different those stories are.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 16:05

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1138873586704367617

This scandal doesn't seem to be ending any time soon.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 19:36

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1138873586704367617

This scandal doesn't seem to be ending any time soon.

If official numbers to be believed (they shouldn't be), the protest was about 1200 people strong, so they are basically saying they've detained every third protestor.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 20:36

Plastic_Gargoyle: Aug 3, 2007

So here's an interesting problem:

Scramble posted:

An-124s 'arrested'!

On 28 May 2019 the Podilskyi District Court of Kyiv arrested and prohibited the operation of five An-124-100 Ruslans, owned by Volga-Dnepr Airlines (Russia), after a motion filed by the Main Directorate of the National Police in Kyiv.

The court imposed grounding of An-124-100's owned by Volga-Dnepr Airlines (Russia) and Volga Dnepr Airlines (Ireland), namely, RA-82068 (msn 9773051359127, line 07-03), RA-82078 (msn 9773054559153, line 07-10), RA-82045 (msn 9773052255113, line 06-09), RA-82046 (msn 9773052255117, line 06-10) and RA-82077 (msn 9773054459151, line 07-09), and prohibited airlines and any other persons from their operation.

In addition, any third parties (airports, aviation authorities) are prohibited from carrying out any actions aimed at landing/take-off (arrival/departure) of these aircraft.

The reason for the court order is that following a complaint filed by SE Antonov (holder of the Type Certificate) the law enforcement agencies of Ukraine are investigating the fact that Rosaviation, as the developer of An-124-100 aircraft modifications and issuer of the Supplemental Type Certificate), has done so illegaly. The unlawful actions of Rosaviation resulted in the extension of airworthiness for An-124-100 aircraft operated by Volga-Dnepr Airlines � without due participation of SE Antonov � which jeopardised the safe operation of these aircraft.

State Enterprise Antonov is the Ukrainian state-owned enterprise, whose main activities include the development, production and repair of Antonov series aircraft.

I wonder if this could actually be enforced.

If anyone actually tried to there could be some impact, as Volga-Dnepr's An-124s regularly transport engines for Boeing, and have been contracted by the US military for heavylift on occasion.

# ? Jun 12, 2019 22:16

Absurd Alhazred: Mar 27, 2010; by Athanatos

Baronjutter posted:

So I met an old friend of my grandpa's, another very old Hungarian man. He told us his general life story, about how I stayed in Hungary after the soviets came and they ruined his family and stripped them of everything because they were religious. He tried to seminary school to become a priest but the communists shut it down. Then he went to some other school for priests that hadn't been shut down but at the last moment decided the life of a priest wasn't for him because he wanted a family. Eventually he immigrated to Canada to get away from those repressive communists and what they did to his poor innocent religious family.

That's his version.

From other hungarian immigrants of the era though it's a very different story. They say he was a bigwig in the Hungarian communist party and had a powerful well connected family. He him self was part of the Hungarian KGB or what ever, which is why, unlike all of them who had to escape the country, he was able to come and go and visit when ever he wanted. He was always going back home to visit family without any fuss. The local hungarian community didn't trust him and generally feared him and thought he was in canada to keep an eye on the Hungarian diaspora with consequences for their families back home if he didn't like what he saw.

Kinda hosed up how different those stories are.

At least both stories agree about how bad the Soviets and Hungarian communists were. :shrug:

# ? Jun 13, 2019 04:01

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Next week the Joint Investigation Team will be making a new announcement on MH17:

quote:

Investigators to identify MH17 suspects: Dutch broadcasters

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Investigators will next week announce criminal proceedings against suspects in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 five years ago, allegedly by pro-Russian separatists, two leading Dutch broadcasters reported on Friday.

MH17 was shot out of the sky over territory held by separatists in eastern Ukraine as it flew from Amsterdam to the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur, killing all 298 people on board.

About two-thirds of the passengers were Dutch.

Dutch prosecutors said on Friday a multi-national investigation team would present its latest findings to media and families on June 19. A spokesman for the national Dutch prosecution service declined to specify what would be announced.

Citing anonymous sources, broadcaster RTL reported that the public prosecution service had decided to launch a case against several MH17 suspects.

National public broadcaster NOS also reported that criminal proceedings will be announced against individual suspects.

No suspects were named in the reports.

The Joint Investigation Team, which seeks to try the suspects under Dutch law, has said the missile system came from the Russian 53rd Anti-Aircraft Brigade, based in the western Russian city of Kursk.

Investigators had said their next step would be to identify individual culprits and to attempt to put them on trial.

Dutch officials have said Russia has refused to cooperate.

Russia is not expected to surrender any potential suspects who may be on its territory and authorities have said individuals could be tried in absentia.

The Joint Investigation Team was formed in 2014 by Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine to investigate collaboratively.

The Netherlands and Australia, which lost 38 people, hold Russia legally responsible. Moscow denies all involvement and maintains that it does not support, financially or with equipment, pro-Russian rebels fighting Ukrainian government troops.

Bellingcat is also going to be putting out a 100 page report about the identities of a lot more individuals involved in the shooting down and details of their roles and activities. We'll also be launching a 6 part podcast documentary series on MH17 at some point next month. We've interviewed lots of people for it, including experts on various subjects, journalists who were on the ground reporting on MH17, and family members of the victims, and it's coming together really well at the moment, so it should be good, and we've got a good production company making sure it's highly polished too.

# ? Jun 15, 2019 10:45

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://imgur.com/gallery/M4t9JbP

# ? Jun 16, 2019 01:55

Absurd Alhazred: Mar 27, 2010; by Athanatos

Huh.

https://twitter.com/KassenovaNargis/status/1139621397544632320

# ? Jun 16, 2019 02:47

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister spoils the JIT press conference

quote:

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Says Dutch Investigators To Name First MH17 Suspects On June 19

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal says Dutch authorities plan to name suspects in the downing of flight MH17 five years ago, in which all 298 people aboard the passenger jet were killed.

In a June 18 interview with Interfax-Ukraine, Zerkal said the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) in charge of investigating the disaster will name the first four suspects in the case on June 19.

"The names will be announced. Charges will be brought. After that, the Criminal Court of Schiphol (the Netherlands) will start working on considering this case,� Zerkal was quoted as saying.

Dutch media, including the NL Times and RTL Nieuws, have reported that relatives of the victims will be first be briefed, after which a news conference will be held at 1 p.m. local time.

On June 14, the JIT noted "new developments" in the investigation in an email sent to the victims' relatives, RTL Nieuws reported.

JIT initially announced in 2016 that the sophisticated Buk missile system, which was used to shoot down the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777, came from Russia.

Russia's 53rd Antiaircraft Missile Brigade had transported the Buk in 2014 to and from Ukraine, JIT additionally concluded in May 2018.

Moscow seized control of the Crimean Peninsula in March 2014 and has supported the separatists who control parts of the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in a war that has killed some 13,000 people since April of that year.

The passenger flight was downed in the conflict zone over non-government-controlled territory.

Using open-source data, England-based online sleuth Bellingcat has also maintained that the same Russian brigade was involved in transporting the missile system to and from Ukraine.

Russia denies involvement in the tragedy.

It has blamed, among others, Ukraine and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency for the disaster.

This would be the first time the JIT is naming specific individuals, and the first charges in the case. A special court has been set up in Schiphol (where MH17 flew from) for the prosecutions coming out of the investigation, so once those cases start more of the evidence they gathered will be reported. While it's unlikely any of the suspects will turn up themselves in, some people involved have already been arrested, including the head of logistics for the DNR's intelligence service who has been interviewed by the JIT, along with additional witnesses, so I expect we'll see a lot of information coming out at the trials.

# ? Jun 18, 2019 13:38

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

How high does it go? Can Russia throw a couple of colonels under the bus just to be done with it?

# ? Jun 18, 2019 13:50

alex314: Nov 22, 2007

I'm betting Malaysians will side with Russians, and some GRU agents will simply switch documents again.

# ? Jun 18, 2019 14:13

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Paladinus posted:

How high does it go? Can Russia throw a couple of colonels under the bus just to be done with it?

From what we understand the separatists co-ordinated with the GRU to arrange the transport of the Buk to Ukraine. The Russian 53rd Brigade had moved its 2nd Division to the border with Ukraine by June 25th, and the separatists requested a Buk to help them counter Ukrainian air power in a battle in the region south of Snizhne, the area from which MH17 would eventually be shot down. I can envision a scenario where the GRU turned up at the 2nd Divisions camp and directly ordered a Buk across the border, so an open question is at what level were the GRU contacting the 53rd Brigade?

There's also the fact Russian military equipment being sent across the border wasn't something unusual, it was something that happened with all sorts of equipment and soldiers, what made the Buk unique is it shot down MH17, not that it was sent across the border. This would suggest the sending of equipment in general would have been ordered at the highest levels. Russia has also been denying all of this, so admiting they sent the Buk would be a lot bigger than just that one incident. Even if Russia keep denying it there's currently a 3 billion Euro case in the ECHR against Russia by the families, and turning up in court and calling everything fake news and Bellingcat forgeries isn't going to impress a judge.

# ? Jun 18, 2019 18:50

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Our new report is here, where we ID a lot more of the people involved with MH17:

Newsy made a video about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7dC2etVPTM

The JIT will also announce four of the suspects, including Dubinsky in the above diagram, will be charged, and their trials will start in March 2020.

# ? Jun 19, 2019 11:38

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ormPe535O0A

# ? Jun 19, 2019 12:42

Plastic_Gargoyle: Aug 3, 2007

E:nm

# ? Jun 19, 2019 13:00

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

It feels crazy that it's been such a long road to prove something that seemed so obvious from the beginning, but it's still nice to strike a blow against the alternate realities put out by Russia. Keep it up!

# ? Jun 19, 2019 13:06

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Even Malaysian representatives seem convinced now. Well done!

# ? Jun 19, 2019 13:57

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1141307808266227712

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1141309078909739014

# ? Jun 19, 2019 13:58

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

That is just amazing. Has the Kremlin banned soldiers from using social media completely or can they still access it to some degree?

# ? Jun 19, 2019 14:04

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

That is just amazing. Has the Kremlin banned soldiers from using social media completely or can they still access it to some degree?

I believe the law in the Duma banning them from posting about their service, during or after, has now been passed.

# ? Jun 19, 2019 14:15

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Yes, it has. That was after the incident, HUGE PUBES.

Also lol at "Miner" being literally with a mine detector on the photo.

# ? Jun 19, 2019 16:40

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1141728157076267009

# ? Jun 20, 2019 16:55

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1141728157076267009

We've been nominated before in rather bizarre circumstances:

quote:

Baltic states jointly nominate Bellingcat for Pulitzer prize

In a joint move, the chairs of the Foreign Affairs Committees of the parliaments of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have nominated the journalism collective Bellingcat for a Pulitzer Prize in Journalism 2019 for its investigative reporting.

Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Saeima Rihards Kols said of the move: “Bellingcat has made contributions to uncovering some of the biggest issues in recent history, making international headlines when they uncovered that Salisbury poisoning suspect Ruslan Boshirov is in fact Colonel Anatoliy Vladimirovich Chepiga, a highly decorated senior officer from Russian military intelligence who was awarded the state’s highest honour in late 2014. Bellingcat has been bringing the same single-minded dedication and commitment to all their investigations, and certainly will continue to do so. All Bellingcat findings have a certain quality in common – they seek to uncover the truth in the most controversial, most difficult places and subjects.”

The nomination letter states that Bellingcat has contributed to the emergence of a new type of journalism bringing together so-called "citizen investigative journalists" using open source information to investigate, collaborate and report worldwide issues.

Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of Seimas (Parliament) of Lithuania Juozas Bernatonis said: “Through their activities and investigative journalism, they actively contribute to the protection of our democratic system from disinformation, fake news, which are being spread seeking to increase fragmentation of societies, hostility and distrust of democracy. Today, we are talking a lot about “fake news”, “troll factories”, and looking to the future, we need to think about the challenges that will arise with the development of artificial intelligence, rapid advances of new technologies.”

Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Riigikogu (Parliament) of Estonia Marko Mihkelson added: “Bellingcat harnesses the best qualities of people working together for one commendable goal. Their knowledge of using digital technology for open source investigation has already made significant impact on the international relations. I hope that they keep bringing to light the murky doings of darker powers that wish to sow discord and distrust.”

Though the joint nomination will likely carry significant weight, it is worth remembering that anyone can nominate anyone else for a Pulitzer, subject to certain conditions and payment of a 75 dollar fee. Indeed it is not unknown for the seedier sorts of journalists to nominate themselves solely in order to say they have been "Pulitzer nominated" on their CVs, as it sounds rather impressive.

What matters is making the Pulitzer shortlist, and it remains to be seen if the Baltic initiative will lead to that outcome. Any person may submit material to the Pulitzer Prize competition, whether an editor of a news organization, an individual journalist or a reader. To be eligible for consideration, work must derive from a U.S. newspaper, magazine, wire service or news site that publishes regularly.