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Also circumstantial evidence of fraud in Venezuelan elections goes back to Chavez's day. The shenanigans he got up probably weren't enough to determine most national election outcomes, but still they go way back. They issues have only got worse under Maduro. Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency Abstract posted:Hugo Chávez dominated the Venezuelan electoral landscape since his first presidential victory in 1998 until his death in 2013. Nobody doubts that he always received considerable voter support in the numerous elections held during his mandate. However, the integrity of the electoral system has come into question since the 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum. From then on, different sectors of society have systematically alleged electoral irregularities or biases in favor of the incumbent party. We have carried out a thorough forensic analysis of the national-level Venezuelan electoral processes held during the 1998–2012 period to assess these complaints. The second-digit Benford's law and two statistical models of vote distributions, recently introduced in the literature, are reviewed and used in our case study. In addition, we discuss a new method to detect irregular variations in the electoral roll. The outputs obtained from these election forensic tools are examined taking into account the substantive context of the elections and referenda under study. Thus, we reach two main conclusions. Firstly, all the tools uncover anomalous statistical patterns, which are consistent with election fraud from 2004 onwards. Although our results are not a concluding proof of fraud, they signal the Recall Referendum as a turning point in the integrity of the Venezuelan elections. Secondly, our analysis calls into question the reliability of the electoral register since 2004. In particular, we found irregular variations in the electoral roll that were decisive in winning the 50% majority in the 2004 Referendum and in the 2012 Presidential Elections this is probably the same kind of fraud used recently in Honduras, although I haven't seen a technical analysis of their results.
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Jun 21, 2019 05:34
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Majorian posted:Yep, although "right wing" is probably not entirely accurate. Maduro doesn't strike me as terribly ideological. there's clearly some in there, in that the entire colectivo thing is something you can only implement if you've got ideological faith in the idea that out of solidarity the freshly empowered randos aren't going to turn around and kick your rear end. but outside of that, there's very little he's done outside the traditional Third World Country Falling To poo poo playbook. for further reference see current events in American success story Honduras, where the military are being called in to restore order after the goddamn peasants striking over privatization plans turned into the goddamn peasants rioting over privatization plans.
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Jun 21, 2019 05:39
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The interesting thing about the video is that they show prices do not correspond at all to salaries. The guy says you NEED someone living elsewhere to send you around 200 dollars per month to survive. If those prices are true, then Venezuela is itself completely dependent on foreign transfers to the inland. That's... crazy Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 07:14
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caps on caps on caps posted:The interesting thing about the video is that they show prices do not correspond at all to salaries. That said, can the woman selling hot dogs afford her own hot dogs?
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Jun 21, 2019 08:17
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EDIT: Wrong thread
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Jun 21, 2019 10:32
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caps on caps on caps posted:The interesting thing about the video is that they show prices do not correspond at all to salaries. Yeah I've seen a lot of stuff here and there about how Venezuela is moving towards basically being a remittance driven economy.
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Jun 21, 2019 10:33
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caps on caps on caps posted:The interesting thing about the video is that they show prices do not correspond at all to salaries. I feel like a lot of posters forget the unbelievable hyper inflation has been going on for years now.
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Jun 21, 2019 11:19
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:there's clearly some in there, in that the entire colectivo thing is something you can only implement if you've got ideological faith in the idea that out of solidarity the freshly empowered randos aren't going to turn around and kick your rear end. You're not too familiar with the history of right-wing governments working with irregular paramilitaries, are you? The loyalist militias in Northern Ireland and the Colombian AUCs are good examples.
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Jun 21, 2019 11:59
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zapplez posted:I feel like a lot of posters forget the unbelievable hyper inflation has been going on for years now. Yeah but not just that. The average salary - the video says - is about 40k. A Hot dog is literally 10k, and that's the cheapest food they looked at (albeit the area wasn't cheap). Note than when it comes to salaries, usually average >>>> median. That's what is so insane. Sure, inflation is crazy, but the magnitude of how dependent people are on getting dollars into the country should be scary to everyone.
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Jun 21, 2019 14:15
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caps on caps on caps posted:Yeah but not just that. The average salary - the video says - is about 40k. A Hot dog is literally 10k, and that's the cheapest food they looked at (albeit the area wasn't cheap). You must have missed the plantains for 4500 per kilo from the back of that truck. He also didn't cite a source for the monthly salary, so it might not be entirely accurate (I'm not saying to completely discount his figure, either). I don't think anyone's gonna do all that food prep if they don't expect to sell most of it, either.
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Jun 21, 2019 14:24
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Friendly reminder: the current Bolívar Soberano replaced the 2008-2018 Bolívar Fuerte at a rate of 1 bs.s to 100,000 bs.f. Just for people who might be trying to compare prices in Venezuela now to those from a few years ago.
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Jun 21, 2019 15:18
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Corky Romanovsky posted:You must have missed the plantains for 4500 per kilo from the back of that truck. He also didn't cite a source for the monthly salary, so it might not be entirely accurate (I'm not saying to completely discount his figure, either). I don't think anyone's gonna do all that food prep if they don't expect to sell most of it, either. Yeah they sell those things, because people have dollars. That's maybe why Venezuela is so stable. Either you have outside support and you don't feel the crisis that much, because the devaluation makes you essentially more wealthy, or you get handouts in form of goods, in which case you are completely system dependent, or finally, you are literally starving and too weak to start anything. Edit: I mean it's perverse. Even though the currency is devaluating and inflation is increasing, Venezuela is more and more dependent on foreign capital inflows. It's really the perfect storm Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 17:22
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it probably helps Venezuela's stability that the people most likely to cause unrest, young men, are also the ones most likely to leave first. I've seen confused information about remittances. There are several sources that are predicting remittances will be a larger part of the economy than the oil sector by the end of the year, but then the best numbers I could find placed remittances at like ~1% of GDP in 2018, though idk, that might have just been remittances from the USA. Other weird things I've found, apparently a large portion of the remittances sent to friends and family by Venezuelans living abroad isn't going to Venezuela at all. A lot of it is being sent to Venezuelans in Colombia or Peru who are in the process of migrating. The result has been a spike in remittances to those countries. Last tidbit is Venezuelan currency controls are so stupid it is loving up the remittance economy. For example, many of the Venezuelans in this thread can tell you about sending home not money, but literally buying parcels of rice and flour and toothpaste and sending it by mail, presumably carried on planes. It is insanely expensive and inefficient and the packages are often stolen in transit. When you can't buy goods for love or money though it makes sense.
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Jun 21, 2019 17:36
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caps on caps on caps posted:Yeah they sell those things, because people have dollars. Well it goes back to the question, can that woman afford the hot dogs she is selling and honestly, she probably can because otherwise, it doesn't make any sense for her to do what she is doing. In a country amidst hyperinflation, much of the economy is probably be informal and so we actually don't have a good idea what income from individuals looks like. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 18:20
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Maybe don't assume prices in a developing nation's green zone is the real prices available to residents of that nation. I'm not saying there's no food shortage, but you're not going to be able to observe it based on the prices of a food truck outside a hotel for foreigners. EDIT: The corollary is that you can't determine the availability of food by the availability of food in the green zone either. This is basically all a slightly more sophisticated version of that guy who polled yelp.
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Jun 21, 2019 20:10
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Corky Romanovsky posted:You must have missed the plantains for 4500 per kilo from the back of that truck. He also didn't cite a source for the monthly salary, so it might not be entirely accurate (I'm not saying to completely discount his figure, either). I don't think anyone's gonna do all that food prep if they don't expect to sell most of it, either. Arent you the "google reviews prove there isnt a food crisis" guy? Also being able to buy ten kilos of plantains with a months salary isn't exactly a glowing review of a country being ok. Especially considering just 10 years ago the average income could be hundreds of kilos of plantains on a months salary. vincentpricesboner fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 20:36
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30.5 Days posted:Maybe don't assume prices in a developing nation's green zone is the real prices available to residents of that nation. Is it fair to developing nations to lump Venezuela in with them? Maybe we should call it an undeveloping nation.
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Jun 21, 2019 20:40
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Polls in general are pretty lovely and suspect even in places like the USA so I don't think there's really any kind of accuracy to the polling being done in Venezuela to the point that it is almost useless data. Esp when they are reporting results to a hundredth degree of confidence. It's more likely that "most people say they hate the opposition more than Maduro but also 30% more say they'd vote for the opposition" is polling error than some nuanced social dynamic unfolding. I suspect it is easier to get people to respond to polls in certain areas of the country versus others. e: That said quote:1. Who do you recognize as president? Guaidó is descending on the expectations of Venezuelans. 41% recognize Maduro as constitutional president of Venezuela (in February it was 34%), while Guaidó is recognized by 36% (in February it was 49%). So, 36% recognize Guaidó as "legal president" whatever the poll defines that as (if it does). 41% recognize Maduro as "legal president" (but do not necessarily support his policies - again the poll is unclear). The remaining 23% think neither is the "legal president" - I guess these are likely to mostly be non-voters but who knows. Of the same group, 39% would vote for opposition candidates which means the 36% plus some of the other two groups votes for the opposition (btw assuming I remember correctly off the top of my head, this already means the opposition has more popular support than Trump, just for comparison's sake). 17% votes for Maduro, which suggests that even if the group recognizes his "legal" presidency, they don't support his policies. 31% doesn't vote at all, they are probably largely the 23% of "this is all stupid and dumb" and a lot of the people who do not think Guiadó is "legal" but neither do they support Maduro. In that reading, seems like most people don't really like Maduro; even if they disagree with the legalistic argument being made by the opposition it doesn't matter so much. ee: quote:3. Crises that require urgent response : The crises that require more and urgent attention from the Government and the country in general are the economy , health , public services , corruption, public safety, exodus and emotional crisis. Only 6% give priority to the political and institutional crisis. This also suggests that "is this guy the legal president or not?" reeaally doesn't fuckin matter to anyone at this point... I'd say it is likely that people who think Guiadó is the legal president would vote for opposition candidates, but people who think Maduro is the legal president don't particularly give a poo poo about the fact. If I did consider this poll to be somewhat accurate (again, I don't really) then I'd say it is interesting that apparently health and public services ranks higher than public safety on the list of concerns. eee: I don't think "The public would not support Guiadó in a free and fair election" is accurate because the non-voters... aren't voting. Even if Maduro gets every single of the 13% of "no comment" people to vote for him that's still just 30% vs 39%, which is still a pretty landslide victory actually. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Jun 21, 2019 |
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Jun 21, 2019 20:48
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Every economic transaction in Venezuela down to buying a jug of milk is fundamentally dependent on U.S. remittance transfer rules and Federal Reserve monetary policy, but we can't try to change this situation becuase it might result in American influence over Venezuela.
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Jun 21, 2019 22:05
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M. Discordia posted:Every economic transaction in Venezuela down to buying a jug of milk is fundamentally dependent on U.S. remittance transfer rules and Federal Reserve monetary policy, but we can't try to change this situation becuase it might result in American influence over Venezuela. If you assume that the only possible options are either, "Invade Venezuela to install a puppet dictator," or "back a coup to install a puppet dictator," perhaps. But I think there are probably other, better options.
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Jun 21, 2019 22:11
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zapplez posted:Arent you the "google reviews prove there isnt a food crisis" guy? That was never my point. What was your sock puppet's name again?
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Jun 22, 2019 00:13
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Lol that Trump's laziness saved Venezuela from insane warmongering neocons and neolibs. Here's hoping he also gets bored of Iran.
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Jun 22, 2019 01:23
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RottenK posted:Lol that Trump's laziness saved Venezuela from insane warmongering neocons and neolibs. It helps that Guaido turned out to be quite the goober. The New Yorker has a good piece up, in which one of their senior journalists followed him around for quite a bit. I kind of feel sorry for the guy; he's completely hapless.
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Jun 22, 2019 03:35
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RottenK posted:Lol that Trump's laziness saved Venezuela from insane warmongering neocons and neolibs. Trump is the best president America has had with foreign policy in the modern era.
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Jun 22, 2019 04:43
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punk rebel ecks posted:Trump is the best president America has had with foreign policy in the modern era. ...ehhhhhh...killing the Iran Deal was really, really, really loving bad. The fact that he chickened out of invading Venezuela is good, but I wouldn't be surprised if he tries again.
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Jun 22, 2019 04:48
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Majorian posted:...ehhhhhh...killing the Iran Deal was really, really, really loving bad. True, but I feel that was inevitable. He also pulled out of Syria. You know any other candidate without the last name "Sanders" would have escalated that poo poo. I mean compare Trump to even Obama or Clinton on foreign policy.
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Jun 22, 2019 04:53
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Trump hasn't actually pulled out of Syria and does more drone strikes with less concern for collateral damage
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Jun 22, 2019 06:13
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punk rebel ecks posted:True, but I feel that was inevitable. He also pulled out of Syria. You know any other candidate without the last name "Sanders" would have escalated that poo poo. Trump didn't pull out of Syria. He said he was pulling out of Syria and instead is posting about 1k soldiers there.
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Jun 22, 2019 06:16
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drat I was wrong on that. Either way I feel that Hillary and many others would have been worse on Syria than Trump.
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Jun 22, 2019 06:38
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Ardennes posted:Well it goes back to the question, can that woman afford the hot dogs she is selling and honestly, she probably can because otherwise, it doesn't make any sense for her to do what she is doing. She has to buy the hot dogs somewhere. It's completely normal for someone not to be able to afford the products they sell, so why would it not make sense if she gets some margin?
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Jun 22, 2019 07:52
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punk rebel ecks posted:Trump is the best president America has had with foreign policy in the modern era. his foreign policy is just as monstrous as obama's/bush's/clinton's/etc, but he's dumb and lazy so it fails Majorian posted:It helps that Guaido turned out to be quite the goober. The New Yorker has a good piece up, in which one of their senior journalists followed him around for quite a bit. I kind of feel sorry for the guy; he's completely hapless. i don't think that you should be sorry for greedy traitors that tried to get their country massacred
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Jun 22, 2019 14:41
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Corky Romanovsky posted:That was never my point. What was your sock puppet's name again? Oh my god. Someone had an ALT? On the SA FORUMS? Why I won't stand for it. Unconscionable. I'm sending a registered letter to Mr.Lowtax immediately. What was your point with the google reviews besides showing you have no understanding about how the world works? Or are you going to talk more about how its not a big deal for a family to be able to buy a few kilos of plantains for their whole month salary, leaving nothing for medicine or shelter or clothing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 22, 2019 15:38
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Majorian posted:It helps that Guaido turned out to be quite the goober. The New Yorker has a good piece up, in which one of their senior journalists followed him around for quite a bit. I kind of feel sorry for the guy; he's completely hapless. I like the little details in the article, like how Guaidó is weirded out by people calling AOC a radical (and is actively creeped out by Rubio), how it was a visit from López's hot wife that convinced Trump (and Pence!) that Venezuela was worth paying attention to, and that the fund the US is trying to put together to bribe army officers keeps vanishing before it gets anywhere near Venezuela.
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Jun 22, 2019 15:48
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zapplez posted:Oh my god. Someone had an ALT? On the SA FORUMS? Why I won't stand for it. Unconscionable. I'm sending a registered letter to Mr.Lowtax immediately. The ALT you were using for concensus, what was the name?
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Jun 22, 2019 16:00
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didn't zapplez not just have an alt but use it in thread(s) to agree with himself? lmao
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Jun 22, 2019 16:05
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I like the way Snrub thinks!
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Jun 22, 2019 16:20
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RottenK posted:
Don’t worry, I don’t think anyone feel sorry for Maduro, him trying to starve Venezuela.
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Jun 22, 2019 16:21
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Fiend posted:The ALT you were using for concensus, what was the name? I tihnk it was corky something? I dont even remember anymore since I ate a 30 for probe evasion. But hey,sometimes you get probated and gotta keep poo poo posting so you use an alt. Worked well for like 5 years of anti-tankie posting but oh well.
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Jun 22, 2019 16:33
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dirty lousy tramp posted:didn't zapplez not just have an alt but use it in thread(s) to agree with himself? lmao literally this happened once or twice ever and the creepio who went through over 2 years of previous posts to find this.this goon spent literal hours combing through years of bad posts in D&D. high level poo poo. 99.9% it was just me posting in the same threads as I got probed in arguing with the same goobers.
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Jun 22, 2019 16:37
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"this guy who found me out is the creep not me" is a bold strategy but it might work
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Jun 22, 2019 16:50
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