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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher |
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18 | 1.46% |
| Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer |
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665 | 54.11% |
| Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker |
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319 | 25.96% |
| Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord |
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26 | 2.12% |
| Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Julian Castro, the Twin |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath |
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17 | 1.38% |
| Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino |
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3 | 0.24% |
| Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist |
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8 | 0.65% |
| Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen |
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86 | 7.00% |
| Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater |
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23 | 1.87% |
| Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool |
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32 | 2.60% |
| Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy |
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2 | 0.16% |
| Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast |
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1 | 0.08% |
| Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated |
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4 | 0.33% |
| Tim Ryan, the Dope Face |
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3 | 0.24% |
| John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran |
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7 | 0.57% |
| Total: | 1229 votes | ||
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thinking about that pre-campaign top ten where enten and cillizza had o'rourke at 3rd and sanders at 7th or some ridiculous bullshit.
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Jul 3, 2019 14:28
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| # ? May 25, 2024 19:47 |
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Groovelord Neato posted:thinking about that pre-campaign top ten where enten and cillizza had o'rourke at 3rd and sanders at 7th or some ridiculous bullshit. Wannabe billionaires really don't want to lose their opportunities to make bank peeling skin off the backs of the working class
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Jul 3, 2019 14:49
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when will we see more people drop out?
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Jul 3, 2019 15:04
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Edgar Allan Pwned posted:when will we see more people drop out? has anyone dropped out yet?
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Jul 3, 2019 15:06
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Edgar Allan Pwned posted:when will we see more people drop out? Iowa
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Jul 3, 2019 15:06
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Gripweed posted:has anyone dropped out yet? Ojeda, though it's not clear what, exactly, was going on there to begin with.
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Jul 3, 2019 15:07
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I wouldn't expect anyone to drop out until after the July 30th debate. That's the last real chance for all of the outliers to make a big impression since the September Debate has a higher threshold that only 7-8 candidates are clearing at the moment.
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Jul 3, 2019 15:09
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Hickenlooper is all but bankrupt (ideologically and fiscally  ); it's iffy if he'll make it to debate 2.
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Jul 3, 2019 15:27
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OAquinas posted:Hickenlooper is all but bankrupt (ideologically and fiscally Hickenloser! Hickenoutoftheloop! sorry I had to
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Jul 3, 2019 15:34
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Weigel said Swalwell was likely to drop out if he didn't make the next debate
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Jul 3, 2019 15:37
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Armack posted:It's a year out, the polls are pure name ID --> Not even all of Biden's main opposition has formally declared yet --> Just wait until women surface accusing Biden of misconduct. You see, in the Post-MeToo era... --> We don't even know for sure that Biden's running yet! --> Well at least Obama will stay neutral, elder statesman and all, plus his team really likes this other candidate...--> Oh, just wait until the first debate, Biden will go down in flames.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 3, 2019 15:46
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Edgar Allan Pwned posted:when will we see more people drop out? When the money and/or staff disappears. Hickenlooper should be on watch to drop out.
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Jul 3, 2019 15:51
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After the next debate I expect polls to tighten more and at least a few of those candidates polling within the margin of error to drop out
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Jul 3, 2019 16:00
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Lol that RCP has entered the last two polls in their average using the wrong numbers, in a way that I am sure coincidentally they enter Bernie's numbers lower than the poll, and everyone else's higher. Yougov had Biden/Bernie/Warren/Harris as 21/10/18/13 and RCP entered it as 23/9/19/15. ABC had it 29/23/11/11 and RCP entered it as 30/19/12/13
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Jul 3, 2019 16:03
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https://twitter.com/changepolls/status/1146433753302085632?s=21
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Jul 3, 2019 16:14
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Meh. Not sure why nationwide numbers matter since this isn't a "nationwide" election yet. Nice to see the overall sentiment is at least behind one of the Bernie/Warren duo but yeah, to me this poll is useless.
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Jul 3, 2019 16:17
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VitalSigns, I am very very glad to have been wrong in my pessimism but unfortunately we're not in the clear yet re: Biden.
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Jul 3, 2019 16:22
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Wrong thread
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Jul 3, 2019 16:26
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smg77 posted:We're going to get stuck with Biden or Harris as the nominee because Bernie cares more about damaging the Democratic Party than anything else. The party lost the election the moment it caved in to its brain worm leadership rather than rebel. That’s not on Sanders.
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Jul 3, 2019 16:36
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Armack posted:VitalSigns, I am very very glad to have been wrong in my pessimism but unfortunately we're not in the clear yet re: Biden. May: "Here's two tedious paragraphs of my predictions of everything that will happen for the next year, plus the exact things that my political opponents will say as their denial of reality gets crazier and crazier such as 'Biden will crash and burn at the first debate'" *Biden crashes and burns harder at the first debate than even his biggest detractors thought possible* July: "Hold on everyone, you never know what could happen in the future, don't presume"
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Jul 3, 2019 16:39
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Biden crashed and burned in the first debate but hes still leading the pack and has a chance to recover at the second debate Of course he will mostly Jeb! out at that debate as well, but anyways lets not suck our dicks on this just yet
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Jul 3, 2019 16:42
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No thanks, I'm going to make fun of people who looked at a single poll 9 months before the primaries and started smugging out that everyone either needs to get behind the front-runner immediately or they're incapable of recognizing reality. It's going to happen over and over as the same people seize on every poll to declare a winner while trying to forget they did the same thing for someone else a month before, and I am here for it.
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Jul 3, 2019 16:45
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If the July debates finish without anyone mentioning that Biden took $200k to campaign for a Republican in 2018 well then everybody on the stage with him hosed up. Booker probably rues the fact he couldn't be the one to go after him on desegregation etc. (though Kamala's story was better than his probably would have been)
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Jul 3, 2019 16:56
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What’s the next big debate? Scheduled yet?
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Jul 3, 2019 17:29
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VitalSigns posted:No thanks, I'm going to make fun of people who looked at a single poll 9 months before the primaries and started smugging out that everyone either needs to get behind the front-runner immediately or they're incapable of recognizing reality. I never said we have to get behind the frontrunner. I've been explicitly pro Bernie and anti Biden the entire time. I'm sorry you can't tell the difference between thinking Biden will win and wanting him to win.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:34
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pangstrom posted:If the July debates finish without anyone mentioning that Biden took $200k to campaign for a Republican in 2018 well then everybody on the stage with him hosed up. Booker probably rues the fact he couldn't be the one to go after him on desegregation etc. (though Kamala's story was better than his probably would have been) I thought it would come up during the first debate when someone mentioned supporting downticket candidates but noooope
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Jul 3, 2019 17:37
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Unoriginal Name posted:I thought it would come up during the first debate when someone mentioned supporting downticket candidates but noooope I'm pessimistic that the moderators and the media would let that attack land if it comes from another candidate. Biden will answer in the debate "I wasn't campaigning and I didn't endorse! What can't you say a few nice words about your friend at a private event?" It won't matter if it is true, because then the media will 12 pinocchios because technically on paper it wasn't campaigning it was just speaking positively about a Republican candidate in advance of an election.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:39
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pangstrom posted:If the July debates finish without anyone mentioning that Biden took $200k to campaign for a Republican in 2018 well then everybody on the stage with him hosed up. Booker probably rues the fact he couldn't be the one to go after him on desegregation etc. (though Kamala's story was better than his probably would have been) Because basically everyone there is vulnerable to attack from a similar angle. (except bernie lmao)
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Jul 3, 2019 17:40
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I want Bernie to win, but look at this poll, let's all give up and agree Biden is the nominee. I really want Bernie to win though, as a Bernie supporter, let's all give up ok. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 3, 2019 17:41
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Trabisnikof posted:I'm pessimistic that the moderators and the media would let that attack land if it comes from another candidate. Biden will answer in the debate "I wasn't campaigning and I didn't endorse! What can't you say a few nice words about your friend at a private event?"
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Jul 3, 2019 17:44
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Just for thread patern-matchers purposes, my main fear about Biden though hasn't been Biden getting through, it's been about people not getting influenced in a more fundamental way and his support piling up behind e.g. Harris or Buttigieg.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:48
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pangstrom posted:His quotes ended up on mailers etc., pretty sure it would land among primary voters and he wouldn't be able to respond well. But hopefully we'll get a chance to see who is right! If it comes from a moderator or from a journalist in an interview (weird Biden hasn't been doing interviews... ) then yeah I think it hurts Biden a lot. If it comes from another candidate at a debate, I think the debate format is specifically one where it will minimize the impact. A journalist or a moderator can force Biden to equivocate because of the pretense of neutrality. But with other candidates Biden can just say they're wrong and trying to make it illegal to have Republican friends.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:49
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VitalSigns posted:I want Bernie to win, but look at this poll, let's all give up and agree Biden is the nominee. I really want Bernie to win though, as a Bernie supporter, let's all give up ok. Show me where I said we have to give up. I am a Bernie donor and text volunteer for Bernie, which I have also indicated in my posts. My posts generally argue we have to try to stop Biden even though the odds are greatly against us, and I still feel that way. You can pick out posts where I'm very pessimistic about our chances of success, posted in the context of discussions about forecasting those chances. Luckily things have been going badly for Biden in ways that some in this thread predicted and I did not. Congrats. That is a very good thing so far. We may in fact be saved from Biden's awfulness due to his senility and bad political instincts. I happily admit to being wrong in predicting otherwise, and yet Biden is still a threat.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:51
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VitalSigns posted:I want Bernie to win, but look at this poll, let's all give up and agree Biden is the nominee. I really want Bernie to win though, as a Bernie supporter, let's all give up ok. This gimmick was old four months ago. Generously.
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Jul 3, 2019 17:59
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Biden won't "recover in the next debate" because the qualities that made him fail in the first debate (senility, stubborness, a profound Boomer refusal to apologize and learn) are innate to his personality. This isn't an Obama '12 'went into the first debate irritated, recalibrated for the second' scenario. Biden didn't misplay the first debate, it's just that the first debate accurately showed the public a glimpse of who Biden actually is.
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Jul 3, 2019 18:08
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Weigel was prescient: https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1129742078630596611?s=19 Also Harris saw a huge bump in Hispanic support: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1146099483261861888?s=19
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Jul 3, 2019 18:11
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VH4Ever posted:Meh. Not sure why nationwide numbers matter since this isn't a "nationwide" election yet. Nice to see the overall sentiment is at least behind one of the Bernie/Warren duo but yeah, to me this poll is useless. Yeah, what I find more telling are Bernie's small donor numbers. Those show a lot more strength than these polls represent.
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Jul 3, 2019 18:26
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i hope biden's disgusting son tanks his chances.
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Jul 3, 2019 18:26
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Armack posted:Show me where I said we have to give up. I am a Bernie donor and text volunteer for Bernie, which I have also indicated in my posts. Honestly I get your pessimism and don't think you were acting in bad faith or whatever, as much as I want Bernie to win and I thought Biden was inevitable when he had that huge of a lead, most voters don't really pay close attention to politics, and the whole part about the voters only caring about electability/beating Trump. Even after his initial bump faded he had some serious lasting power in the polls for a while and I didn't think one debate was going to see him fall this much (and even then he still has a lead in most polls).
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Jul 3, 2019 18:35
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| # ? May 25, 2024 19:47 |
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I just don't think this space has room for that kind of negative energy
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Jul 3, 2019 18:39
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