|
Squalid posted:However the problem is that Saudi Arabia and Iran are not any more trustworthy. Almost certainly one of these countries was responsible, since nobody else really has the capability or the motive. Therefore a safe starting assumption is that each nation has a 1/3 chance of being responsible, before any other evidence is presented. Making any statement more firmer than that is going to demand more evidence, and in the meanwhile we have to be able to acknowledge the uncertainty. This is really erroneous logic imo but I'm on my phone and can't really effort post. But saying okay Iran, SA, and USA are involved and all are equally untrustworthy thus all get an equal weight of 1/3rd in likely being behind it has some speculative leaps involved. The point is still that it is disingenuous to present it as some 50/50 who knows both sidesism. The point is also imo that the US is clearly being provocative as gently caress. There's a clear aggressor here. Squalid posted:of course if we have to assume the US government is a compulsive liar, well I guess France has nothing to worry about and must not have really been violating UN arms embargos! Sure except that's easily verifiable information presumably? Side note Germany is kind of adopting a weird stance here imo - there's evidence it was Iran but maybe it wasn't still (but they don't elaborate) and then also they're saying Iran needs to abide by the terms of a treaty that the USA unilaterally pulled out of? Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Jul 9, 2019 |
#
?
Jul 9, 2019 23:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 11:56 |
|
|
E: q is not e
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2019 23:06
|
|
|
Moridin920 posted:Side note Germany is kind of adopting a weird stance here imo - there's evidence it was Iran but maybe it wasn't still (but they don't elaborate) and then also they're saying Iran needs to abide by the terms of a treaty that the USA unilaterally pulled out of? that's a pretty normal stance really, there's evidence it was Iran, its just not very strong evidence. To use your example, if a bank was robbed and there's security camera footage of me there at the bank, you'd be justified in looking into what I was doing. Is it proof that I was involved? No, but my presence at the bank definitely makes it more likely than if I had been somewhere else at the time. Also Germany wants Iran to abide by the treaty because they basically agree with it --That's why they went along with Obama when he got it implemented in the first place. At the same time they are still trying to circumvent US sanctions, and that's easier to justify if Iran is still following the original agreement. It seems like they are kinda failing to run around sanctions, but in principle they still want to.
|
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2019 23:34
|
|
|
It's a weird flex to threaten Iran with consequences if they don't abide by the broken treaty but maybe that's a translation issue and they mean they won't be able to bypass US sanctions as easily or something. Btw thanks for the av. Kinda just confirms everything I said with regards to dishonest 'centrists' imo. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Jul 9, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2019 23:49
|
|
|
You're doing the thing where you jump to conclusions without evidence again. The only time I ever bought an av for someone I didn't like it was Arkane and I bought him a sexy anime girl so at least there would be something worth looking at in his posts. i mean think about it, why would I buy you a custom title like that? It'll just be a badge of honor in c-spam. There's no reason to think it would bother you at all. Squalid fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jul 10, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 9, 2019 23:57
|
|
|
Ah sorry I'm doing that thing where I write unclearly. I didn't mean you I just meant in general whoever bought it. You're talking to me so I didn't think it was you but rather someone who didn't want to engage at all and just kneejerked the tankie thing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 00:11
|
|
|
Every thread I enjoy, or find informative. Whether I'm inactive or active in it. You plague like locusts, Moridin. No one cares about your stupid new av. No one. You're biblical in your misunderstandings and drawing to stupid conclusions. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 01:06
|
|
|
Glenn Quebec posted:Every thread I enjoy, or find informative. Whether I'm inactive or active in it. You plague like locusts, Moridin. No one cares about your stupid new av. No one. You're biblical in your misunderstandings and drawing to stupid conclusions. Dude posts more than anyone else and its all drivel
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 05:09
|
|
|
What am I saying that is drivel or a profound misunderstanding exactly? Got anything of value to add to the conversation? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 05:15
|
|
|
I bet your av is from the GBS Chernobyl thread, that's about when I remember seeing it show up
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 06:43
|
|
|
You guys hear about the 18 grams of californium being seized? World production of californium is like half a gram. So tjis is very telling of a greater level of production we may not know about.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 07:19
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:You guys hear about the 18 grams of californium being seized? World production of californium is like half a gram. So tjis is very telling of a greater level of production we may not know about. No I didn't hear about that but I did hear about the resurgence of a hoax from last year involving 18 grams of californium being seized from smugglers in Turkey. The new stuff looks a lot like the same copper-colored glitter claimed to actually be some sort of polystyrene sulfonate powder in the hoax last year. Either way, the stuff in these news articles isn't showing the silvery metal that pure californium would appear as.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 07:46
|
|
|
The problem with saying "there is evidence that Iran might of done, but maybe not", or "the evidence is inconclusive" misses the context that the accuser's (USA) evidence is 'Suspect', and shouldn't even be considered 'inconclusive'
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 09:13
|
|
|
LtStorm posted:No I didn't hear about that but I did hear about the resurgence of a hoax from last year involving 18 grams of californium being seized from smugglers in Turkey. Thank you for the helpful info. So this most likely bullshit spread by a chain of news leeching
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 17:18
|
|
|
SniHjen posted:The problem with saying "there is evidence that Iran might of done, but maybe not", or "the evidence is inconclusive" misses the context that the accuser's (USA) evidence is 'Suspect', and shouldn't even be considered 'inconclusive' In other words it's a baseless complaint.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 22:35
|
|
|
More over they have a video of, literally, the Iranian coast guard investigating a ship with a whole in it. Most likely the thing that they are removing is a magnetic mooring device. It's as damning as finding a video of the US coast guard responding to an incident a few miles off shore. It also explains why everyone in the video is just milling around casually and not acting at all like they're some special ops team removing anti-ship explosives that could kill them all That they tried to sell that as a loving casus belli is insulting the entire planet's (admittedly minimal) intelligence
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2019 23:09
|
|
|
I just saw a report of Iranian speedboats trying to hijack a British oil tanker in retaliation for the Iranian oil tanker the Brits took in Gibraltar. However, an British navy ship was in the area and warned the Iranians not to take the ship, and they fled. I saw it on CNN but I can't find the article now.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 01:26
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I just saw a report of Iranian speedboats trying to hijack a British oil tanker in retaliation for the Iranian oil tanker the Brits took in Gibraltar. However, an British navy ship was in the area and warned the Iranians not to take the ship, and they fled. I saw it on CNN but I can't find the article now. Reuters has one Link
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 01:34
|
|
|
Read my lips False Flag
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 01:43
|
|
|
Gonna laugh when it is revealed in 10 years that someone in a letter agency had the idea to get a batch of those Iranian patrol boats madequote:Five boats believed to belong to Iranian Revolutionary Guards approached a British oil tanker in the Gulf on Wednesday and asked it to stop in Iranian waters close by, but withdrew after a British warship warned them, U.S. officials said. Interesting that Reuters is specifically wording it all as speculative Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 02:22
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:More over they have a video of, literally, the Iranian coast guard investigating a ship with a whole in it. Most likely the thing that they are removing is a magnetic mooring device. It's as damning as finding a video of the US coast guard responding to an incident a few miles off shore. It also explains why everyone in the video is just milling around casually and not acting at all like they're some special ops team removing anti-ship explosives that could kill them all Nobody important tried to use it as a casus belli though. We know with hindsight that Donald Trump did not want to use it as an excuse to go to war, thanks to all of the statements and actions of his that followed. So why would he be dissimulating on this issue? What is Trump's angle? Or do you think he is being deceived. it's plausible for Bolton to trick him on this subject for a while, but eventually other analysts are going to get to him with conflicting information. Also do you have pictures of magnetic mooring devices that resemble this?  Personally I'm not competent to identify a limpet mine or mooring device, so I can't make any judgement. Some people have associated the magnet with this Iranian mine: but I don't know if it is reliable. Also Britain was apparently holding its tankers back from entering the Persian Gulf after receiving threats that they could be targeted for retaliation by the Iranian navy, so this isn't all that surprising. Squalid fucked around with this message at 03:47 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:07
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Nobody important tried to use it as a casus belli though. We know with hindsight that Donald Trump did not want to use it as an excuse to go to war, thanks to all of the statements and actions of his that followed. So why would he be dissimulating on this issue? What is Trump's angle? Or do you think he is being deceived. it's plausible for Bolton to trick him on this subject for a while, but eventually other analysts are going to get to him with conflicting information. That's a picture of a component, not a full device. If the Iranians were attempting to hide their involvement, why would they leave behind part of their mine when they supposedly had access to it?
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:12
|
|
|
WhiskeyWhiskers posted:That's a picture of a component, not a full device. If the Iranians were attempting to hide their involvement, why would they leave behind part of their mine when they supposedly had access to it? I know, its just a magnet. Obviously its still there because it broke off during removal, whatever was removed. Of course because I know nothing about magnetic mooring devices they may also use round magnets, although the couple I found in 1 minute googling were rectangular. I also found some more images showing an example of what these mines look like, and the location where the device was affixed. I don't think the mine in this diagram is Iranian, but the impression on the hull certainly looks very similar. I'd be surprised if mooring devices could cause similar patterns. If the pictures aren't loading for anyone you can see them on this page: https://new.qq.com/omn/20190618/20190618A0TEW9.html Squalid fucked around with this message at 04:21 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:25
|
|
|
use imgur, none of your pics are loading
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:30
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:use imgur, none of your pics are loading youve probably already seen them anyway, they're just pictures of the magnet attached to the ship, and the magnet sits on the edge of a circular pattern of scrapes that suggest there were originally ~12 other magnets holding whatever in place, one of which was rectangular.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:37
|
|
|
Wow well with that you sure have convinced me, I didn't realize I was up against a google user who knows nothing about mines or anything marine
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:39
|
|
|
Use imgur anyway, for heaven's sake.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:43
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Wow well with that you sure have convinced me, I didn't realize I was up against a google user who knows nothing about mines or anything marine uh I'm not pretending to know anything about them. What do YOU know about magnetic mooring devices buddy, since you're the one claiming to know what's what.
|
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 03:46
|
|
|
Squalid posted:uh I'm not pretending to know anything about them. What do YOU know about magnetic mooring devices buddy, since you're the one claiming to know what's what. The US alleges that is a mine, it's not on us to prove that some random photo of a magnet isn't a mine. If you think it is part of a limpet mine then make your case. "Admittedly I know nothing about it but this photo of a mine I found has circular magnets and the other one is rectangular" really isn't anything, no offense. The point of "why would they leave anything behind if it actually was material from a mine" is a good one. And your image links broke too so idk what I'm even comparing  Squalid posted:the magnet sits on the edge of a circular pattern of scrapes that suggest there were originally ~12 other magnets holding whatever in place, one of which was rectangular. quote:Each of their mooring magnets generates a 1-tesla magnetic field. The magnets are formed from 13 long, thin, rod-shaped electromagnets placed side by side in a pattern that concentrates the magnetic field around the sides of the rods. From a random 2003 article about magnetic mooring. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3270-giant-electromagnets-to-moor-ships/ E: per the article there's multiple magnets in a specific pattern which reinforce each other such that the mooring can be secure without a huge magnetic field penetrating the ship potentially damaging stuff. Why would you bother to do that for a mine which is meant to explode the ship anyway? Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 15:52
|
|
|
I don't think any of us know anything about limpet mines or magnetic mooring devices. In that context we are better off not drawing any conclusions, since we are not qualified to make any judgments. However if we are going to wildly speculate beyond the level of our expertise, we could at least support said speculation with some kind of evidence, even if it is only really lovely evidence. The device described in that article is not consistent with what was found on the hull of the ship. Most obviously, it uses electromagnets while the one found on the ship appears to be neodymium or something similar. a neodymium magnetic .5 in thick and 2.5 inch diameter can exert a force of up to 138 lbf, according to an online Neodymium pull force calculator. This might explain why it was not removed, because doing so would be difficult. Reportedly it required a crowbar to recover. The electromagnets on the mooring device described in the article were in a rectangular configuration and were made from long thin rods rather than circular discs. You can see an example of what some of these mooring devices look like in the image below:  The magnet and marks on the ship looked as below:  This is one of the broken images I posted earlier, though idk I can see them fine. You can see the magnet sat on a circular pattern of scrapes extending to left side of the image that appear to have been where similar magnets were attached. So whatever this was, it had a circular configuration. Here is an example of an Iranian limpet mine. Unfortunately I have found no pictures of the underside, in theory it might be attached with suction cups.  Whatever explanation we arrive at we should probably keep in mind six ships suffered nearly identical hull explosions, four leaving from Emirati ports, and two, including the ship this magnet was recovered from, leaving Saudi ports. It's worth thinking about what plausible mechanisms could have produced these explosions, and to consider if they might be connected to this device. Could there be magnetic mooring systems using a circular configuration? Idk, worth looking into. Squalid fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 19:55
|
|
|
The New York Times just published their investigation into the recent bombing in Libya that killed 50+ migrants: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpPTlm_OJjI https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1149336460480438272 https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1149348368445059072 https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1149359469081563136 https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1149366816478810112 https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1149437389238091777 Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Jul 11, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 11, 2019 22:49
|
|
|
Squalid, what does google say about UXO handling procedures? Is it normal to have ten people standing around 5 feet away? Similarly, there's still been zero evidence that the entire video shows literally anything other than a routine coast guard response to a ship attacked just off of their shore. Like every country on the planet will respond by sending out some small craft to inspect damages on ships if there are a bunch of ships being blown up off their coasts. And yeah dude I know a bit about ships, I've got 4 generations of relatives who have spent their lives at sea and have spent 1000+ hours on boats and small ships. I don't claim to know exactly what is going on in any of the extremely limited footage, but the official story is stupid af and, near as I can tell, hinges on characterizing a coast guard action as 'covert special forces activity' while all the sailors involved stand around looking like a bunch of people doing some completely routine poo poo. It's also really weird that someone would be placing limpet mines so far above the water line. There are just so many levels on which neither the footage nor the official story lines up that there isn't even really a single non-suspect premise to build upon Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Jul 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 03:02
|
|
|
Herstory, I feel like I haven't asked for very much. All that I want is for you to share your reasoning behind the statement "Most likely the thing that they are removing is a magnetic mooring device." That just means explaining how you came to this conclusion, and showing me how a magnetic mooring device explains the images we've seen. I ask this because when I dug up pictures of them, the examples I found could not leave behind the traces we've seen. If you are going to theorize like this, you should always support your arguments. Even if its based off something you saw irl, or personal experience, w/e, just tell me you didn't make it up. That's all I want to hear. I feel like you are tying yourself into knots looking for a coherent story. Sometimes we just have to admit we don't know everything, that maybe we can't know everything. For example, in the eighties somebody mined the Red Sea. Just left floating mines all over the place. Nobody ever claimed responsibility. Some American analysts concluded it was probably Ghaddafi, was was pissed at the Saudis at the time, but no conclusive evidence was ever made public. Sometimes we just have to accept that we can't know what really happened. There doesn't have to be a coherent story. Instead of trying to fit the evidence into a pre-made narrative, we should look at it with clear heads, and follow it where it leads. What is the effect of placing a mine above instead of below the waterline? Well, it seems to me it reduces the chance of sinking the ship. Presumably if this was a mine and this placement was intentional, it was because the user wanted to minimize damage and loss of life. That is one possible explanation. If you want alternative stories, the Norwegian insurance firm that investigated the first four bombings in ships back in May concluded they were most likely caused by Iranian drone torpedoes quote:A confidential assessment issued this week by the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Insurance Association (DNK) concluded that the attack was likely to have been carried out by a surface vessel operating close by that despatched underwater drones carrying 30-50 kg (65-110 lb) of high-grade explosives to detonate on impact. However this assessment was contradicted by the investigation of the UAE, which concluded these explosions were probably caused by limpet mines placed by divers. Notably the UAE has refused to directly accuse anyone of involvement, and has consistently argued for deescalation between the US and Iran. UAE political analysts have generally concluded the the country does not want this confrontation escalating as they would be on the frontline. Note that I have not mentioned the video, which I found confusing and difficult to interpret. So I have not used it in any arguments. Squalid fucked around with this message at 05:06 on Jul 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 05:03
|
|
|
Guess what object does get placed about 6-10 feet above the waterline when a small boat pulls up alongside a large ship and needs to stay in place for a while to inspect something. You also don't attach the mooring device to the exact spot where the device was found, you'd attach it up-current (i.e. towards the bow of the ship). So what poo poo happened to be found within inches of the device has nothing to do with a mooring device. This is all assuming you take the US military at face value about what the video shows in the first place Until there's anything even remotely close to actual evidence of something nefarious pointing to anyone, I'm wildly skeptical of any official story and am just going to assume that they did some really basic coast guard 101 'inspect the damaged tanker off our shores' stuff. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Jul 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 05:42
|
|
|
Ok, I think I better understand what you are talking about now. You are exclusively referring to the video and what the Iranian boat was shown removing from the ship. You are not connecting this to the magnet recovered from the hull, which you have not commented on at all, and you are suggesting may not be related to the video? My mistake I think was hearing the word magnet and immediately relating it to the pictures, and I was wrong in assuming you were trying to explain the source of the recovered magnet. Is that a correct interpretation? That's fair, like I said, I can't really make heads or tails of the video so I've pretty much just ignored it completely. Circumstantial evidence suggests the responsible party was almost certainly Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, or the UAE. Maybe include Israel if we are feeling generous. Subsequent actions however make it unlikely that the US or the UAE perpetrated the attack, because the leaders of both nations moved to avoid escalation and immediately made noise about dialogue and settling disputes. Some people have suggested rouge elements in the US government could be responsible however I consider this unlikely. I'm not aware of any historical instances of the CIA acting outside the command of the executive. It's possible to manipulate and frame the information getting to the executive, but blowing up ships without Presidential approval is beyond anything recorded in US history. That leaves Saudi Arabia, Israel, or Iran as the most likely culprits. If we have to choose between two theories, that Saudi Arabia/Israel faked it to look like Iran, or Iran just did it themselves, and we have no decisive evidence either way, Occam's Razor suggests Iran is the most likely culprit. This follows from the principle of parsimony, where when picking between hypotheses that make the same predictions, we should default to those with simpler assumptions. Iran doing it themselves is simpler than the attacks being staged to look like Iran. None of this is proof Iran did it. Given more evidence things might look different. Iran is not on trial, we don't have to meet the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt. Fortunately, we don't have to push back against war fever anymore, because we already know this hasn't lead to war. If they were going to make this into a casus belli they would have already done so.
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 06:29
|
|
|
It's very symbolic to me that the middle eastern thread is the thread in the forums that I follow that has the most conflict
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 08:01
|
|
|
Hmmmm... I hadn't realised this before but the Vega rocket that crashed on launch from French Guyana yesterday was carrying a spy satellite for the UAE. What's the  on that?edit: sorry, phone posting has ruined embedding but you get the gist. Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 09:41 on Jul 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 09:38
|
|
|
lmao @ "spy satellite"
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 11:46
|
|
|
orange sky posted:lmao @ "spy satellite" Question's the same though.
|
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 12:42
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 11:56 |
|
|
Here's another nail in the coffin of the US-Turkey alliance: https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1149652752445788160 https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1149665310091313156 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jul 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Jul 12, 2019 14:03
|
|
