|
So we can’t stop it so we should just sit and watch it all happen? That seems to be the consensus so far.
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2019 22:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 02:40 |
|
|
we should give pakistan a seat on the security council
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2019 22:16
|
|
|
Hamelekim posted:So we can’t stop it so we should just sit and watch it all happen? That seems to be the consensus so far. Seemingly the answer to all current geo-political crises, the world over.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2019 22:18
|
|
|
Hamelekim posted:This is all taking place on the Indian side, correct? If so, unless they cross over into Pakistan's territory won't this amount to nothing in terms of armed conflict between Pakistan and India? You know how India is constantly accusing Pakistan of arming terrorist/separatists on their side of J&K? Well, imagine that times 100 as violence flares up, and depending on how things go giving an excuse for Pakistan and China to roll across the border and start the water wars early.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2019 23:41
|
|
|
I highly doubt this will lead to war between Pakistan and India, it just isn't feasible. What will most likely happen is that Kashmir will essentially become a colonial police state of India even more, but I doubt Pakistan will do anything other than talk hawkish.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 04:28
|
|
|
In the near term I think the worst case scenario is some sort of terrorist attack in reaction similar to the lashkar e taiba attacks in ‘08. And from there just further counter reactions. An attack like that would only inflame the fascist Hindu movement that’s been fermenting in India. A sort of look the other way attitude as the forces of communal violence unleash themselves would be straight out of Modi’s history.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 05:57
|
|
|
punk rebel ecks posted:- According to the news, India has been developing quickly over the past two decades or so. Is this accurate, and if so why? Anyone know the answers to these? would be greatly appreciated. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 06:10
|
|
|
Hamelekim posted:So we can’t stop it so we should just sit and watch it all happen? That seems to be the consensus so far. Sure, they are loving adults.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 06:28
|
|
|
punk rebel ecks posted:Anyone know the answers to these? would be greatly appreciated. kerala does have a high rate of remittances, but it's unclear whether this accounts for the success of their model - while kerala iirc has the highest proportion of their economy come from remittances, some other states aren't far behind and are markedly less hospitable to live in that point has always struck me as similar to explaining e.g. norway's success with "well they've got oil" - sure, a revenue stream is a good thing, but it's only one piece of the puzzle, and if poorly managed it doesn't necessarily help much in terms of development or living standards
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 09:59
|
|
|
ThisIsJohnWayne posted:What country on earth would create economic sanctions against India. I can't imagine that against Pakistan either. The US just did this to goddamn China, a country with a far more powerful military and economy than India, let alone Pakistan. It was a dumb as poo poo thing to do and hurts a lot of people for no good reason, but the idea that major powers always act rationally is pretty bogus these days.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 11:42
|
|
|
Pakistan and India won't go to war over this because of the disparity in military might, 700k Indian troops in Kashmir alone is more than Pakistan have active army personnel. However I can imagine that Pakistan may start seriously increasing the funding to terrorist groups if things get particularly bad.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 11:55
|
|
|
Gort posted:The US just did this to goddamn China, a country with a far more powerful military and economy than India, let alone Pakistan. Good point
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 13:07
|
|
|
I believe a large part of the objective behind the surprise maneuver was as a show of strength. Pakistan has now been shown that India can sneak 100k troops in Kashmir overnight without anyone noticing the staging of this operation. It validates the so-called "Cold Start doctrine" in that it invites Pakistan to ponder on what other troop movements have been prepared and be executed at a moment's notice. And the Balakot air strike, though apparently unsuccessful, aimed at demonstrating that India will not refrain from engaging targets on Pakistani soil in case of terror attacks on Indian soil.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 13:08
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:kerala does have a high rate of remittances, but it's unclear whether this accounts for the success of their model - while kerala iirc has the highest proportion of their economy come from remittances, some other states aren't far behind and are markedly less hospitable to live in Awesome post. Thanks.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 16:34
|
|
|
Kerala remittances are much greater than other Indian states, both as a share of the remittances India receives in total and as a share of its state GDP: (source) The only state which even comes close on those statistics is Goa, which is something of a irrepresentative statistical anomaly itself (relatively high GDP/capita, tiny size). So one is essentially only meaningfully comparing Kerala with Punjab, both ~30m strong rather than with Goa's 1.5m people "aren't far behind" is questionable... Remittances are an export that accounts for more than a third of GDP for Kerala, oil exports in Norway is more like a fifth
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 17:32
|
|
|
Was just listening to the lates deep state radio podcast and they brought up the situation in Kashmir. Basically every single war game run with an armed conflict scenario ends with the use of nuclear weapons. So let’s hope cool heads prevail no matter what India does on their side.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 18:26
|
|
|
India does not appear to be crossing the LOC, a hot war does not appear likely, the main prospect is the degree of ethnic cleansing vs economic development in the Centre's particular mix of policies, and nobody knows what those will be just yet. The special status of Kashmir dates from a period when India was very very eager to prove that Kashmir, even Pakistan-held Kashmir, wants to be part of India more than it wants to be West Pakistan (and that violent resistance was a plot by a minority of violent radicals hoping to present a fait accompli), it hasn't been a credible thing since a West Pakistan also ceased to be a thing. see also: beijing's relationship to its peripheries
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 18:54
|
|
|
Thread from a Kashmiri who escaped the black zone: https://twitter.com/sannareya/status/1158693209847017472?s=21
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2019 19:05
|
|
|
ronya posted:Kerala remittances are much greater than other Indian states, both as a share of the remittances India receives in total and as a share of its state GDP: What does HH remittances mean?
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 04:47
|
|
|
punk rebel ecks posted:What does HH remittances mean? Household it’s noted on the bottom
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 04:57
|
|
|
Oh wow. Maybe the Kerala model isn't good afterall.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 04:58
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:I believe a large part of the objective behind the surprise maneuver was as a show of strength. Pakistan has now been shown that India can sneak 100k troops in Kashmir overnight without anyone noticing the staging of this operation. It validates the so-called "Cold Start doctrine" in that it invites Pakistan to ponder on what other troop movements have been prepared and be executed at a moment's notice. Yeah, deploying that amount of troops so rapidly and in conditions of total secrecy is a seriously impressive piece of military logistics and must be pretty unnerving to the Pakistani government.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 05:31
|
|
|
Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, deploying that amount of troops so rapidly and in conditions of total secrecy is a seriously impressive piece of military logistics and must be pretty unnerving to the Pakistani government.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 10:56
|
|
|
Flayer posted:We are taking India's word for this and it is effective propaganda so not sure how much I trust it. India could have been slowly and secretively moving in troops over the last month, for example. That would just be an impressive military achievement in a slightly different way.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 11:05
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:That would just be an impressive military achievement in a slightly different way.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 11:19
|
|
|
Flayer posted:Moving in 3-4,000 personnel a day over a period of time is not as impressive as moving 100,000 in 1 day, especially considering they already had half a million troops deployed in the region so clearly the infrastructure for mass troop movements is clearly already there. It's also not clear where this 100k figure is from, how reliable it is, where exactly the new troops are, what troop movements back and forth are usually like (ie did they just move in troops as normal but kept the current military units in place?). There's no strategic or tactical overview to evaluate exactly how impressive troop movements were in this scenario. It's impressive because you kept the whole thing secret. The longer you drag out something like that, the more chance it has of leaking due to one of your thousands of troops being a dumbass.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 11:22
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:It's impressive because you kept the whole thing secret. The longer you drag out something like that, the more chance it has of leaking due to one of your thousands of troops being a dumbass. Yep. Doing this slowly would have lit up social media. This was very well executed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 11:41
|
|
|
Social media was talking about 35k men moved a few days before. It was also keeping an eye on C17s going in and out. This is the tweet I linked elsewhere. https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1157006734470156288
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 11:57
|
|
|
Yesterday, August 6, the Indian Parliament passed by overwhelming majorities the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill, 2019. This will split the current India state of Jammu and Kashmir into two different Union Territories (Union Territories are directly administered by the India government in New Delhi) of Jammu and Kasmir and Ladhakh. The current India-administered Jammu and Kasmir (Pakistan and China administered regions disputed by India in light grey)  The new Union Territory of Ladhakh in red. Reduced Jammu and Kashmir to it's left. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 13:52
|
|
|
The Kashmir conflict just became a lot geographically smaller. Good for Ladakh. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 13:59
|
|
|
I wonder what the reason is for splitting the Kashmir region into two is. My guess would be that the new Ladhakh state is the region which they plan to move inhabitants from India into and maybe ethnically cleanse the current inhabitants to the smaller Kashmir state. This would jive with the geography of the region where all the water resources are based in the Ladhakh state so Kashmir could then be safely ignored except when they need some saber rattling to up the poll figures. In some ways it reminds me of how Morocco have dealt with the Western Sahara problem - let the rebels have some useless and unproductive desert while the military keeps control of the useful coastal areas.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 14:49
|
|
|
It's Ladakh that's a desert though, because of the Himalayas.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 14:58
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1159097153974939648?s=19
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 15:12
|
|
|
ThisIsJohnWayne posted:I'd bet on the very exact opposite. It's just because they both have a fully developed and usable nuclear weapons capability that everyone is going to keep the gently caress away, no matter what. I'd actually expect Russia to swoop in with some grand diplomatic gesture. The only peace talks worth anything wrt Syria are headed by Russia for example (yes, the agreements are routinely violated and the exercise is to help it's ally, but that's exactly why countries do diplomacy), and Putin often shows up to shake hands with autocrats like Erdogan or MBS who are unpopular in DC. This all being on China's border means everyone is going to tread carefully. In general though I agree that the state of the world isn't going to hell things in Kashmir very much.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 15:18
|
|
|
Flayer posted:I wonder what the reason is for splitting the Kashmir region into two is. My guess would be that the new Ladhakh state is the region which they plan to move inhabitants from India into and maybe ethnically cleanse the current inhabitants to the smaller Kashmir state. This would jive with the geography of the region where all the water resources are based in the Ladhakh state so Kashmir could then be safely ignored except when they need some saber rattling to up the poll figures. In some ways it reminds me of how Morocco have dealt with the Western Sahara problem - let the rebels have some useless and unproductive desert while the military keeps control of the useful coastal areas. IIrc Ladakh is already majority dharmic and most of the Muslims there are Shia who don’t actually get along well with most of the separatists, who often lean into Sunni Islamism. It also has a very small population in the first place. Like a lot of areas in India it’s inhabitants have have also previously campaigned to get their own region, so there are a lot of people in Ladakh that would applaud this. When it comes to moving inhabitants around the overwhelming nationalist talking point is returning the pandits to Kashmir, so that’s where i’d expect to see population movements first. Although I don’t know how easily they could actually get people to agree to participate in such a program, the government has been trying unsuccessfully to get people returning for years
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 16:11
|
|
|
Flayer posted:I wonder what the reason is for splitting the Kashmir region into two is. My guess would be that the new Ladhakh state is the region which they plan to move inhabitants from India into and maybe ethnically cleanse the current inhabitants to the smaller Kashmir state. This would jive with the geography of the region where all the water resources are based in the Ladhakh state so Kashmir could then be safely ignored except when they need some saber rattling to up the poll figures. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 16:17
|
|
|
Peeps from Pakistan are expecting ethnic cleansing to eventually commence or people removed from homes and sent away. Nationalism and fascist stuff feels like it’s been on the rise globally.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 16:26
|
|
|
Gort posted:The US just did this to goddamn China, a country with a far more powerful military and economy than India, let alone Pakistan. It was more about a specific (and wrong) interpretation of the US being at a disadvantage when trading with China than anything to do with human rights though. I am a little hopeful that maybe after an administration change, whoever comes next could keep some pressure on for humanitarian reasons, although that's unlikely (probably even unwise, economically). It's really the exception rather than the rule though, the vast majority of governments generally are fine with other big, economically important nations doing whatever they want within their borders. Where things really get complicated is where Pakistan starts trying to call in favors against India, and I don't know nearly enough about international relations to know how that's going to go, especially since the US's current government is wildly unpredictable.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 17:36
|
|
|
Modi clesmarly planed this for a while since the downed plane. Sending in the troops and splitting the region is a 1-2-3 combo punch. That may be more punch coming tomorrow.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 18:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 02:40 |
|
|
Gatts posted:Peeps from Pakistan are expecting ethnic cleansing to eventually commence or people removed from homes and sent away.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2019 18:09
|
|