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ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
macris economic stability.

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Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011
"Macri stumbles"

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011

Ghost of Mussolini posted:

"Macri stumbles"

ayyyy

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
no me deja abrirlo de nuevo por suerte no cerre el tab original, en caso de que no les deje abrir a otros de una:

quote:

Eddy Stenberg, portfolio manager on emerging markets debt at Boston-based asset manager Loomis Sayles, was equally downbeat. “My first reaction to the results was, there goes Argentina,” he said. “The only chance Argentina had of becoming a normal country is shot.”

quote:

Moreover, a Fernández-Fernández win could put the country’s record $56bn bailout from the IMF at risk, warned Yerlan Syzdykov, the global head of emerging markets at Amundi Asset Management.

“Given how important the IMF has been to the whole Argentine financial complex and the open questioning from Fernández and his team about whether the package with the IMF should be renegotiated, this is the biggest nerve-racking point for investors,” he said.

“If Argentina starts thinking about renegotiating the IMF package, it will be more contentious,” he added.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

I know jack all about contemporary Argentine politics, can someone fill me in what all this is?

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Grouchio posted:

I know jack all about contemporary Argentine politics, can someone fill me in what all this is?

Yesterday's vote was the PASO to define what candidates will be on the ballot for the elections later this year (in October). The PASO are mandatory and simultaneous party primaries, open to any voters. No relevant parties ran a primary election, presenting already defined lists. Ergo, the PASO are the world's most expensive opinion poll.

So although nothing has formally changed, the PASO have demonstrated that the government is further behind than what anyone thought. People expected the government to lose by 5-7%, and make up the difference through ballotage by capturing more third-party voters.

Instead, the government has lost by a whopping 15%. Confidence in the government has disappeared, eg. the dollar was at $45 on Friday, and is currently sitting at $61 as of 12h Monday.

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
im horribly uneducated so ill be definitely going off course and subject to my own biases

but the kirchners started doing more social programs like Asignacion Universal Por Hijos (Welfare per kids for impoverished families), renegotiated the insane debt we had following the dicatorships and the consequential Crash of 2001 (Dead men cant pay debts), Conectar Igualdad (give netbooks to kids coming out of school).
Their downfall, aside from doing anything left leaning in this planet, was trying to attack the media conglomerates that had a stranglehold on the country, namely clarin, and trying to revitalize causes on their heads, magnetto and hernestina de noble regarding their ties to the dictatorships. This launched clarin into a loving frenzy of smearing and propaganda, not that the kirchners didnt have dirt on them. Doesn't help that, as talked up above, peron is a VERY difficult character, and theres a lot of peronistic elements in the kirchner platform.
as such, the country got some of its harshest divide in years, and mauricio macri won last elections. despite unemployment having been way down, and the dollar going from like 3 to like 15 pesos during the 8 years of the kirchners, macri stoked the fires clarin had started and argued that the country had been handed to him completely up in flames, and proceeded to take loans from the imf (the loans nestor kirchner miraculously negotiated), helped speculators, and reprivatized poo poo the kirchners made state (I think YPF, our national oil supplier? might be wrong), and delegitimizing our national industries. Those last two rang echoes of the economic policies videla ran during our last coup, and many people saw the writing on the wall, and as such, due to a lot of bullshit which im not informed enough on, we went from 15 pesos to dollar to 45 in the 4 macri years, to the jump we're seeing due to investors and speculators jumping ship because the jig is up.
After a rise in unemployment, the rise of the dollar to peso ratio and especially the utilities price hike, people finally wised up to the kind of dumbfuck macri is (Unfortunately not enough, 40 percent of our populace still somehow believes in him jesus christ).
nevertheless, we've yet to see how this develops, who knows where the rest of the voting block would fall, but it seems like its curtains for Gaturro.

And as usual, poor nico del caño gets less than 2%. Alas, we're just not ready yet

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011

Ghost of Mussolini posted:

Yesterday's vote was the PASO to define what candidates will be on the ballot for the elections later this year (in October). The PASO are mandatory and simultaneous party primaries, open to any voters. No relevant parties ran a primary election, presenting already defined lists. Ergo, the PASO are the world's most expensive opinion poll.

So although nothing has formally changed, the PASO have demonstrated that the government is further behind than what anyone thought. People expected the government to lose by 5-7%, and make up the difference through ballotage by capturing more third-party voters.

Instead, the government has lost by a whopping 15%. Confidence in the government has disappeared, eg. the dollar was at $45 on Friday, and is currently sitting at $61 as of 12h Monday.

oh, this, i thought he meant the backstory. but yeah, the paso was a huge shakeup because people expected a small difference.

id argue confidence in the government was lost after the fiasco over bills quadrupling and poo poo

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.
I read that Argentina used to have like the third highest GDP and quality of life in the Western Hemisphere 100 years ago. However, it has since just stagnated or even declined.

What's the reason for this? Sourced that talk about this tend to be things like The Economist, so I don't trust them.

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

ArfJason posted:

id argue confidence in the government was lost after the fiasco over bills quadrupling and poo poo
Yes absolutely for a lot of people it did, but electorally this is the first real reflection of that. Even in the legislative elections from 2017 the government put in a good result.

Now these people can't even properly hold on with all the IMF money

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer
15 loving points

L
O
L

And to think Fernández was screaming about "serious irregularities in the voting process" until like 8pm yesterday

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

punk rebel ecks posted:

I read that Argentina used to have like the third highest GDP and quality of life in the Western Hemisphere 100 years ago. However, it has since just stagnated or even declined.

What's the reason for this? Sourced that talk about this tend to be things like The Economist, so I don't trust them.

Long story short, Argentina has always been an economy dominated by the exports of commodities. It's possible to make a lot of money exporting meat and leather as a small country in the first half of the twentieth century. Not so much now.

As for why Argentina failed to industrialize, opinions v vary.

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
its hard to quantify how much damage lanata has done to this country, but i sincerely wish him the worst

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

ArfJason posted:

its hard to quantify how much damage lanata has done to this country, but i sincerely wish him the worst

inshallah he will receive the same suicide watch epstein did

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Just as I'm about to travel to Buenos Aires for work. Not sure how I feel about taking advantage of a neighbor's misfortune, but I'm sure gonna buy those wooden empanada dishes this time around.

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
man i could go for some empanadas rn

Dek
Dec 19, 2010

It Just Works™


Que caripelas.

3 empanadas for 2 people...

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011
i bought dollars today ama

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer

Ghost of Mussolini posted:

i bought dollars today ama

bank or blue?

Dek
Dec 19, 2010

It Just Works™

Ghost of Mussolini posted:

i bought dollars today ama

How many? did it hurt?

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer
Wonder if Macri is gonna make more than a token effort to keep the dollar down now that he knows he's on the way out.

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011
aaaajajajaja [lit: aaahahahaha]

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Birds of a feather lmao

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1160945990523899904?s=20

Dek
Dec 19, 2010

It Just Works™

Ur Getting Fatter posted:

Wonder if Macri is gonna burn argentina to the ground now that he knows he's on the way out.

ftfy

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011
bank, online

Dek posted:

How many? did it hurt?
i sold 100K pesos (i'm left with 5000 until the end of the month :thumbsup:), yes it hurt but because i am stupid and should have sold last week

si se puede !

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Dek posted:

3 empanadas for 2 people...

What a misery

But yeah I mean what did anyone expect

We keep going round and round the cycle, from corrupt vaguely leftish peronism to a neoliberalism that is much worse in all possible ways, and back again

I wish there were politicians like Corbyn in Argentina, but then again they'd be cockblocked by peronists all the way

I keep posting this and it keeps applying
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1rm8I2UT2Y

Ghost of Mussolini
Jun 26, 2011

Pochoclo posted:


I wish there were politicians like Corbyn in Argentina, but then again they'd be cockblocked by peronists all the way

the last thing we need in this country are more antisemites !

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/sta...ingawful.com%2F

hello i am phone
Nov 24, 2005
¿donde estoy?

Mañana le rompemos el orto a Sri Lanka

GimmickMan
Dec 27, 2011

Macri just blamed the crash on the K's and the people who voted them not understanding his great plans to fix the economy.

I guess that answers the question of whether he'll try to keep the country stable and transition governments without issue or if he'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the rosada.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011

Transient People
Dec 22, 2011

"When a man thinketh on anything whatsoever, his next thought after is not altogether so casual as it seems to be. Not every thought to every thought succeeds indifferently."
- Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan

Pochoclo posted:

What a misery

But yeah I mean what did anyone expect

We keep going round and round the cycle, from corrupt vaguely leftish peronism to a neoliberalism that is much worse in all possible ways, and back again

I wish there were politicians like Corbyn in Argentina, but then again they'd be cockblocked by peronists all the way

I keep posting this and it keeps applying
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1rm8I2UT2Y

It really loving sucks that we have nothing else to choose from. We can either have incompetent, corrupt leftism that hires fascists or we can have spineless center-right neoliberal bootlickers that will tank the country. I wish there was something, anything we could do to fix this :(

ArfJason
Sep 5, 2011

Transient People posted:

It really loving sucks that we have nothing else to choose from. We can either have incompetent, corrupt leftism that hires fascists or we can have spineless center-right neoliberal bootlickers that will tank the country. I wish there was something, anything we could do to fix this :(

NICODELCAÑOFUMANDOSEUNCAÑO

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

"hmmm my life in Argentina is poo poo, I KNOW, I'll go to Brasil!!!"

Transient People
Dec 22, 2011

"When a man thinketh on anything whatsoever, his next thought after is not altogether so casual as it seems to be. Not every thought to every thought succeeds indifferently."
- Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan

:fuckoff:

(Not to you plut, it's just, who the gently caress would see this mess and think brazil is a good idea????)

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

We are officially on a recession now too. Fun times.

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry
I mean, it's not just that. If you're an argentinian that qualifies as "refugee" that means you're either living on the streets or in a villa, and what, you're going to magically teleport to Brasil, where you don't even know the language, and... what? Live in a favela?

If it was Uruguay getting nervous I might even understand it, but even then argentinians historically haven't really done the "refugee" thing to neighbouring countries, it's mostly just middle class people fleeing to Europe/USA. Everyone else just kinda shrugs and carries on and has a terrible poo poo of a time, this whole crisis thing is a recurring feature

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nerdz
Oct 12, 2004


Complex, statistically improbable things are by their nature more difficult to explain than simple, statistically probable things.
Grimey Drawer
I mean, his point was that if the left wing gets control over the country, it will literally become a venezuela, with food shortages so bad people would be fleeing. Of course that'll be their boogeyman for the rest of eternity

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