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Main Paineframe posted:Some will say "Maduro", some will say "sanctions", and some will say something altogether different and possibly complain about the false choice on offer here. Because Venezuela, like most other countries, is not a hivemind where the entire populace agrees on literally everything. Some people will support Maduro, some people will support Guaido, some people will support neither. That's why information about what a population supports is usually determined by polling, not by quizzing one person as if they alone represent the will of all Venezuela. But now you're conflating being against a military intervention as being tacit support for Maduro, when 81% of Venezuelans want him gone. The reason why he's not gone, is because he's entrenched in power and doesn't actually need to be popular to rule anymore. He only needs support from the military, and so long as the "bozal de arepa" is there, that will remain. The military has long abandoned its constitutional duties, they're there for the money, there's been articles posted before as to how exactly Maduro maintains control of the military. But truth be told, 90% of Venezuela, being civilians, can't do anything against Maduro's army, unless what you want is a civil war. Elias_Maluco posted:Supporting sanctions from the world nº 1 superpower to prevent a country from becoming " a slave again to foreign powers" is kinda of a weird take It's exactly what it is. No sanctions means, Maduro can sell CITGO to Russia, he can sell PDVSA assets to China, and continue getting loans from Wall Street. Right now nobody can get a piece of the full cake. China can still weasel in still but they're being cautious as Maduro keeps wasting their money. Russia can still sell weapons to Maduro which he will of course buy as he's already spent half a billion dollars buying jet fighters that look very pretty in the June 24 parades. fnox fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Aug 22, 2019 |
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Aug 22, 2019 18:22
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VitalSigns posted:Are you arguing that the sanctions have no effect at all and they make no difference to conditions on the ground (because if so, then why not remove them since all they do is serve as a major PR disaster for America) Based on everything you know, do you think there is one iota of a chance of Trump admitting wrongdoing and reversing course here?
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Aug 22, 2019 18:31
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fnox posted:But now you're conflating being against a military intervention as being tacit support for Maduro, when 81% of Venezuelans want him gone. No, I'm posting examples of wildly varying poll numbers on about the same question at about the same time as an example of why there's likely no point in posting poll numbers due to their extreme unreliability. I guess I must not have been clear enough, which is strange, since that entire paragraph was about how dodgy polling about Venezuela has been. Given that context, I hope you understand why I'm not going to bother responding to that one particular poll you posted - though I'd note that your own poll suggests that foreign intervention of any kind (including economic intervention, such as sanctions) to get rid of Maduro is just as unpopular as Maduro himself. It doesn't matter whether I want a civil war, nor whether you want a civil war. But it seems like Venezuelans don't want a civil war, or else they'd be in one already. Maduro's presidency may not be popular, but it currently seems as though people are content to wait for a negotiated solution or the end of Maduro's term.
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Aug 22, 2019 18:42
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Main Paineframe posted:No, I'm posting examples of wildly varying poll numbers on about the same question at about the same time as an example of why there's likely no point in posting poll numbers due to their extreme unreliability. I guess I must not have been clear enough, which is strange, since that entire paragraph was about how dodgy polling about Venezuela has been. Given that context, I hope you understand why I'm not going to bother responding to that one particular poll you posted - though I'd note that your own poll suggests that foreign intervention of any kind (including economic intervention, such as sanctions) to get rid of Maduro is just as unpopular as Maduro himself. "Wildly" varying poll numbers on two different questions, cute detail you decided to ignore. You get basically every poll, you can even aggregate them, and you can very, very obviously see that the broad majority of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. Yeah of loving course nobody wants a civil war. Nobody wants a war. They want Maduro gone, hopefully in a way that still allows the country to recover. The reason why there hasn't been a civil war is because it is extremely hard to build up enough forces to challenge Maduro without him immediately executing everyone involved. Like what, do you think he's not expecting a rebellion? I know a colonel in the FANB who's in Ramo Verde right now for picking up the wrong phone call during the failed coup. While Bachelet was in the country, a military officer accused of treason for that same event died in custody after brutal torture.
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Aug 22, 2019 18:52
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fnox posted:Things are going to get worse because Maduro is still in power, still doing the same things he's been doing in 2013 only worse. The sanctions are stopping him from fireselling Venezuelan state assets to Wall Street. Even if he were to take the money from that sale and actually put it into buying food and medicine, which he won't do as demonstrated by the brutal corruption behind food and medicine purchases, Venezuela would become a slave again to foreign powers. Why should I believe your hot take over The Lancet's analysis https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1164467730550087680 Also I'm surprised you're against selling off Venezuela's public assets to wealthy private interests, I thought that was Guaido's proposal to make Venezuela great again?
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Aug 22, 2019 18:58
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fnox posted:"Wildly" varying poll numbers on two different questions, cute detail you decided to ignore. You get basically every poll, you can even aggregate them, and you can very, very obviously see that the broad majority of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. How do you know him?
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Aug 22, 2019 18:59
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fnox posted:Is it making their problems worse, yes
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Aug 22, 2019 19:02
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Helsing posted:How do you know him? Estranged father of a friend of mine. To this day we still don't know how they picked up on the phone call, maybe the person on the other end had their phone bugged. He got off easy though. By the way, same poll but from this month, 59.6% don't want a military intervention. I'm not sure where that 10% is coming from. Also note, that result from the other poll, the question is not, "Would you support a military intervention?", it's "Do you believe that, without foreign military help, that Venezuelans alone can get rid of Maduro and Chavismo?", the word intervention isn't there. The "wildly varying" percentage of Venezuelans who would like to see Maduro gone this year is between 85%-90% in any poll you pick. fnox fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Aug 22, 2019 |
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Aug 22, 2019 19:04
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fnox posted:Estranged father of a friend of mine. To this day we still don't know how they picked up on the phone call, maybe the person on the other end had their phone bugged. He got off easy though. I don't understand why you're complaining about wildly inconsistent polling while simultaneously arguing against my claim that the polling is wildly inconsistent. Sounds kind of like you want to pick and choose your sources, IMO. Though it seems clear that you didn't read through the 90% poll, since that's not the only question on it that deals with military intervention. The percentage of Venezuelans who want Maduro forced out by US economic or military intervention varies quite a bit between polls, but the average appears to be well south of a majority, with most polls suggesting Venezuelans want the issue to be resolved domestically without the US butting in - either a negotiated solution or new elections.
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Aug 22, 2019 19:31
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't understand why you're complaining about wildly inconsistent polling while simultaneously arguing against my claim that the polling is wildly inconsistent. Sounds kind of like you want to pick and choose your sources, IMO. Though it seems clear that you didn't read through the 90% poll, since that's not the only question on it that deals with military intervention. I'm not complaining about inconsistent polling. You brought that up. I'm showing why the numbers you site differ, it's because it's two different questions. When it's the same question the numbers are fairly consistent. The word "intervention" isn't used in the Meganalisis poll, for example, and they address different questions regarding foreign militaries without ever asking "Would you support a military intervention?", the question that Datanalisis says 54% answered no to. The percentage of Venezuelans who want Maduro out is consistent. What differs in reception is the means in which he's removed. The overwhelming majority of Venezuelans want him gone. You said that if 90% of the country wanted him gone he'd be gone, but the reality is that, despite the numbers being there, Maduro has shown no restraints in using violence to keep himself in power. The reason why he's still in power is precisely due to those disagreements between which measure would truly result in him being gone.
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Aug 22, 2019 19:45
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So we have two positions here. The opposition supporters itt claim that Maduro is the root and cause of the Venezuelan crisis. The dictator apologists claims that the US sanctions multiplies the suffering. The thing is that those two positions aren’t mutually exclusive, both can be true. Here’s a hot take for the ages; Get Rid Of Maduro somehow. That would end the sanctions and it would make the opposition happy. Win-win situation.
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Aug 22, 2019 19:50
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A few months(maybe last year) this came out. The interview took some time to go live because Jorge Ramos (Interviewer) was held hostage along with his team, his equipment was seized and took some time for it to recover the stuff and what they had is what some memebers managed to snuggle out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOlSWdzx9z0 It is a great interview with Maduro on how he sees himself and the goverment he is running. If you add this with some social media you can get from both sides you can take some safe assumtions on how stuff is going on in Vz
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Aug 22, 2019 20:00
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Thinking that being against sanctions/american foreign policy makes you pro dictator is very powerful framing
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Aug 22, 2019 20:02
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Noshtane posted:
ok go. how do you do this
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Aug 22, 2019 20:07
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Noshtane posted:So we have two positions here. Especially since it’s not just the US who are sanctioning Venezuela. The US could lift sanctions tomorrow and Venezuela would still be under sanctions from the EU, Canada, Mexico, etc...
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Aug 22, 2019 20:09
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Noshtane posted:So we have two positions here. While Maduro is not the root he plays a big part on Venezuela crisis. Taking over factories and trying to get rich from whatever makes moeny to anyone but him. On the other side, I believe that while sanctions also contribute to Venezuela's crisis, they are needed to prevent that crisis to expand to their territories or affect for examaple the few factories that still operate in there. Getting rid of Maduro is the ideal thing, but not easy, everything is under his controll and the last time some one attempted it things went worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopoldo_L%C3%B3pez and more recently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3 both of them being chased by the government and even tried to exile them. All in all the way to solve Venezulan crisis from my standing, is a country militar intervention, which might make things worse but needs to happen. Or just sit and wait for Maduro to die and hope the next President doesn't follows Maduros/Chavez lead
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Aug 22, 2019 20:32
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BigFactory posted:Based on everything you know, do you think there is one iota of a chance of Trump admitting wrongdoing and reversing course here? Your entire position basically seems to be that the terrible US foreign policy apparatus cannot be beaten or reasoned with and therefore everyone else should simply bow down and accede to their demands.
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Aug 22, 2019 20:37
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BigFactory posted:Based on everything you know, do you think there is one iota of a chance of Trump admitting wrongdoing and reversing course here? No. I also don't think there's one iota of a chance of Trump admitting wrongdoing and reversing course on jailing refugee children, what's your point.
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Aug 22, 2019 20:50
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Zidrooner posted:Your entire position basically seems to be that the terrible US foreign policy apparatus cannot be beaten or reasoned with and therefore everyone else should simply bow down and accede to their demands. Yes. Correct. Do you have a better solution to ease or end suffering in Venezuela? The US won’t back down and will only step up intervention the longer Maduro stays in place. If you want to live in fantasy land be my guest.
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Aug 22, 2019 20:56
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So in short accede to a bully's demands or you're responsbile for the lives it is destroying. Sounds like a solid moral framework and shrewd political decisionmaking.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:12
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mortons stork posted:So in short accede to a bully's demands or you're responsbile for the lives it is destroying. Sounds like a solid moral framework and shrewd political decisionmaking. You seem to think this is a philosophical argument and not real life. We have been reminded time and time again in this thread about the lesson of history in Iraq and Libya. Very true. Hopefully Maduro was studying hard because he’s the one guy who can break the trend.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:24
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lol https://twitter.com/SenRickScott/status/1164240501081628672
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Aug 22, 2019 21:25
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BigFactory posted:Yes. Correct. Do you have a better solution to ease or end suffering in Venezuela? The US won’t back down and will only step up intervention the longer Maduro stays in place. If you want to live in fantasy land be my guest. I don't see any way out at all, Maduro has no intention of simply stepping down either, and I would question whether the US getting what it wants would actually lead to an improvement in the lives of Venezuelans in any case. Maybe toughing it out until a Bernie Sanders administration could facilitate an improvement. In any case nothing is accomplished by telling people to give up their resistance as you are doing other than making it easier for the ghouls to do their ghoulish deeds.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:26
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BigFactory posted:You seem to think this is a philosophical argument and not real life. We have been reminded time and time again in this thread about the lesson of history in Iraq and Libya. Very true. Hopefully Maduro was studying hard because he’s the one guy who can break the trend. Yes, and thank you for illustrating in your very post, with the historical example, why it is a loving stupid political decision to just unconditionally, unilaterally accede to the usa's demands when its track record is like that.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:38
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Imagine being in the same side of an issue as this guy lol
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Aug 22, 2019 21:40
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Jose posted:sactions going great an article written by someone who has literally been a venezualaanalysis columnist since 2012, lol "The impact of sanctions cannot be overstated" ::spends entire piece overstating the impact of sanctions, attributes AIDS crisis to a 2017 pharmaceutical sanction that doesn't exist, ignores the fact that it has been Venezuelan government policy to deny food and medication to HIV patients for years because homophobia that would make Mike Pence blush has been an integral part of Chavismo since the beginning::
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Aug 22, 2019 21:42
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mortons stork posted:Yes, and thank you for illustrating in your very post, with the historical example, why it is a loving stupid political decision to just unconditionally, unilaterally accede to the usa's demands when its track record is like that. So the logical solution is to stop the USA? What’s the track record of that working out?
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Aug 22, 2019 21:47
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"Venezuelans should continue to starve, die of AIDS, and get tossed off of rooftops for voting against the government in order to really stick it to the CIA and Elliot Abrams who want them to not do that" is the literal, explicit position of the leftists in and out of this thread. I don't know why anyone is surprised to figure it out time and time again.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:52
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Lightning Knight posted:Imagine being in the same side of an issue as this guy lol But here we all are, right? Sad but true.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:55
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BigFactory posted:So the logical solution is to stop the USA? What’s the track record of that working out? The logical solution is to resist, and make it as expensive and painful as possible for the usa, since that at least has a chance of succeeding. Of course, that is painful for the population as well, but humanitarian concerns went right out the window when the sanctions aimed at destroying the national economy came into play and hosed VZ's productive infrastructure for decades to come, and uncle sledgehammer was nominated for head of regime change ops. So I do not believe that there is any solution at this point that does not come at immense cost to the Venezuelan people. Still, it is important to point out how loving ghoulish it is to place the responsibility of deaths by sanctions and regime change on the government for not rolling over and getting golpe'd, and I hope you can realize that.
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Aug 22, 2019 21:56
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mortons stork posted:The logical solution is to resist, and make it as expensive and painful as possible for the usa, since that at least has a chance of succeeding. Of course, that is painful for the population as well, but humanitarian concerns went right out the window when the sanctions aimed at destroying the national economy came into play and hosed VZ's productive infrastructure for decades to come, and uncle sledgehammer was nominated for head of regime change ops. So I do not believe that there is any solution at this point that does not come at immense cost to the Venezuelan people. Still, it is important to point out how loving ghoulish it is to place the responsibility of deaths by sanctions and regime change on the government for not rolling over and getting golpe'd, and I hope you can realize that. I mean he could have not rigged an election in the first place and we wouldn’t be here today, right?
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Aug 22, 2019 22:02
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BigFactory posted:I mean he could have not rigged an election in the first place and we wouldn’t be here today, right? Allow me to point out a few subtle, but crucial differences between a crook rigging an election and a foreign power intentionally destroying a country's productive capacity and starving its citizens of basic necessities so it can pursue its geopolitical agenda.
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Aug 22, 2019 22:04
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mortons stork posted:Allow me to point out a few subtle, but crucial differences between a crook rigging an election and a foreign power intentionally destroying a country's productive capacity and starving its citizens of basic necessities so it can pursue its geopolitical agenda. Please do.
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Aug 22, 2019 22:06
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All right, here you go: lol (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 22, 2019 22:07
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mortons stork posted:Allow me to point out a few subtle, but crucial differences between a crook rigging an election and a foreign power intentionally destroying a country's productive capacity and starving its citizens of basic necessities so it can pursue its geopolitical agenda. i mean, if the outcome is the same, is there really a moral difference? assuming bad intentions in both cases. China CNPC suspends Venezuelan oil loading, worried about U.S. sanctions: sources quote:SINGAPORE/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - China National Petroleum Corp, a leading buyer of Venezuelan oil, has halted August loadings following the latest U.S. sanctions on the South American exporter, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. sanctions continuing to strangle Venezuelan oil exports.
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Aug 22, 2019 22:10
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90% of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. But nah! Let them suffer him for longer! That'll really piss off Drumpf!
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Aug 22, 2019 22:13
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fnox posted:90% of Venezuelans want Maduro gone. Wanting him gone doesn't mean wanting him gone with literally no cost being too high.
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Aug 22, 2019 22:22
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Mischievous Mink posted:Wanting him gone doesn't mean wanting him gone with literally no cost being too high. What’s the cost? He steps down, they hold new elections, the sanctions get lifted, maduro screws to Turkey or Cuba. He’s a bad guy but he could do one really good thing for his country with his final act as president. Wouldn’t that be nice?
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Aug 22, 2019 22:29
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I do find it interesting that none of the Maduro apologists in this thread ever bring up the multitude of other nations who are also involved in the efforts to get rid of Maduro.
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Aug 22, 2019 22:30
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Giggle Goose posted:I do find it interesting that none of the Maduro apologists in this thread ever bring up the multitude of other nations who are also involved in the efforts to get rid of Maduro. The reign of imperialist terror from the fascist monsters in Canada and Ecuador will not stop the glory of Chavismo
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Aug 22, 2019 22:41
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