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Florida is about to get wrecked
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Sep 2, 2019 15:55
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orange sky posted:
Yeah, those vids are eerie, especially that first one. I've had dreams like that where the tidal waves were riding up my windows. As someone who (stupidly) stayed in St. Augustine as Matthew hit, in the videos I took I sound remarkably calm. I think there's a certain level of resignation that hits after a certain point, knowing there is literally not one loving thing you can do to change anything. The constant stress creates exhaustion after a bit as well. If these guys are like me, they've also had a bit to drink to calm their nerves. The day after the storm, I was physically sore from the constant tension. I hadn't done much physically but it felt like I had. It was NOTHING like these videos but I'd hazard a guess that the same effect is in play. You're just utterly powerless and no amount of panic or screaming or freaking out is gonna help anything at all. I think the body/mind has a way of effectively shutting down your panic factor too. I suffer from anxiety but when a legit crisis hits, I usually remain rather level headed Burn Zone posted:Florida is about to get wrecked Nice knowing you guys.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:06
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Burn Zone posted:Florida is about to get wrecked Florida saved by the northward tilt of the storm!
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Sep 2, 2019 16:07
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I was beach camping this summer, miles away from anything in a tent. a big storm rolled through with 65 mph wind gusts and I was laughing hysterically from my tent while my friend was freaking out. after the third wave or so he was just like gently caress it and went to sleep even after his rainfly blew away. I was still having a very good time.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:11
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Anything to do with water freaks me out, I had my house flood some times due to storms, it just wrecks an entire house and doesn't give a poo poo
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Sep 2, 2019 16:13
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it's cool that the canadian model has been the best at figuring out the hurricane's motion pre-turn. it might not end up being the best model at predicting the location and angle of the turn, though - that might be caused by other effects that other models are representing more accurately. or it could just follow the canadian model's predictions idk that said i'm assuming that west and south are the directions you don't want to be wrong in
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Sep 2, 2019 16:14
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Models are just magic.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:16
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etalian posted:Florida saved by the northward tilt of the storm! Everyone is counting on this turn, like waiting for a curve ball to break into the strike zone but I'm not that confident and everything hinges on it. This storm has been bizarre. Not my first either by a long shot. I can't recall one before where the predictions have been so extremely off and varying. My assumption is that the accelerated impact of climate change is rendering past predictive models somewhat obsolete, or at least inaccurate. I realized the other day though that my place of work is a perfect place to evacuate so I might be pulling a Costanza and sleeping under my desk for a few days/nights. It won't flood, is a veritable fortress and has a kitchen, a shower, vending machines, etc. Just need to bring some cushions or pillows to sleep on. Will be the shortest commute of my life.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:17
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net work error posted:Models are just magic. i remember the cspam gunpla thread
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Sep 2, 2019 16:20
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net work error posted:Models are just magic. theyre science magic i wish more people would pay attention so we could have a Model Race and fund the GFS enough to out-predict the other models
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Sep 2, 2019 16:21
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storms that move this slowly are just extremely hard to predict.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:22
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model goes up, model goes down. you cant explain that
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Sep 2, 2019 16:22
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BiggerBoat posted:Everyone is counting on this turn, like waiting for a curve ball to break into the strike zone but I'm not that confident and everything hinges on it. This storm has been bizarre. Not my first either by a long shot. I can't recall one before where the predictions have been so extremely off and varying. My assumption is that the accelerated impact of climate change is rendering past predictive models somewhat obsolete, or at least inaccurate. i've been through, poo poo, like 11 hurricanes and many more tropical storms in my time of living in florida and at a certain point you become extremely blasé until evacuation orders start coming down. floyd's track caused everyone to freak the gently caress out and there was a massive evacuation which ended up turning out not to be needed; so far dorian is very close to floyd/matthew in that regard really i think anybody who lived through 2004 is just broken from having 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks to deal with so you immediately know what the gently caress to do/get/prepare for
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Sep 2, 2019 16:22
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BiggerBoat posted:Everyone is counting on this turn, like waiting for a curve ball to break into the strike zone but I'm not that confident and everything hinges on it. This storm has been bizarre. Not my first either by a long shot. I can't recall one before where the predictions have been so extremely off and varying. My assumption is that the accelerated impact of climate change is rendering past predictive models somewhat obsolete, or at least inaccurate. bring jugs of water, and way more underwear and clean shirts than you think youll need never underestimate the restorative power of putting on clean underwear and a fresh shirt
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Sep 2, 2019 16:22
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BiggerBoat posted:Everyone is counting on this turn, like waiting for a curve ball to break into the strike zone but I'm not that confident and everything hinges on it. This storm has been bizarre. Not my first either by a long shot. I can't recall one before where the predictions have been so extremely off and varying. My assumption is that the accelerated impact of climate change is rendering past predictive models somewhat obsolete, or at least inaccurate. this.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:23
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BiggerBoat posted:Everyone is counting on this turn, like waiting for a curve ball to break into the strike zone but I'm not that confident and everything hinges on it. This storm has been bizarre. Not my first either by a long shot. I can't recall one before where the predictions have been so extremely off and varying. My assumption is that the accelerated impact of climate change is rendering past predictive models somewhat obsolete, or at least inaccurate. the stall is a very good indicator that the turn will occur, if it didn't stall yeah it would have gone directly to Florida. The models have been performing better every year and have done very well with this storm and a landfall on florida would be within the accepted margin of error especially for globals like the euro. This storm has an extremely tight but powerful wind area and a 50 mile movement is huge. Your assumptions are not very good lol.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:23
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Squizzle posted:i remember the cspam gunpla thread I have an RX-93 Nu Gundam that was my plan for entertainment when the power went out. So far it doesn't seem like I'll need to open the box so it'll continue to site for a while.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:25
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Your living room now has an undertow. https://twitter.com/QueenAnarchyy/status/1168527827148431360
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Sep 2, 2019 16:25
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:storms that move this slowly are just extremely hard to predict. basically. without momentum to help fudge the math (oh its the size of texas and headinging nnw at 25 miles an hour so its a good bet it will keep doing that!!) theres too many variables pushing on all sides to get it exactly right.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:25
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AphexMandelbrot posted:Your living room now has an undertow. lots of people are dying
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Sep 2, 2019 16:26
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All that being said though I think the space coast is going to have a bad time
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Sep 2, 2019 16:27
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:lots of people are dying I'm way deep in the digging for media / listening to dispatch portion of this. This is... gonna be bad.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:All that being said though I think the space coast is going to have a bad time “space coast” is a terrible name for anything except the upper atmosphere
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Sep 2, 2019 16:35
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send the space force to dump comet ice into the water to kill the dang hurricane
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Sep 2, 2019 16:36
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Squizzle posted:“space coast” is a terrible name for anything except the upper atmosphere space coast ghost to ghost is my vote for thread title after landfall
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Sep 2, 2019 16:36
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:lots of people are dying
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Sep 2, 2019 16:39
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Tekne posted:a cat5 parking above you is the worst case scenario for an island short of getting hit by a massive tsunami without warning what about, that but then trumo nukes the hurricane to save maralago while its still over the island and the nuke power triggers a volcanic eruption
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Sep 2, 2019 16:42
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Squizzle posted:what about, that but then trumo nukes the hurricane to save maralago while its still over the island and the nuke power triggers a volcanic eruption I’d rather be instantly vaporized than drown slowly.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:46
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soy posted:I’d rather be instantly vaporized than drown slowly. You live somehow, sorry
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Sep 2, 2019 16:47
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a single nuke is small thinking a ballistic sub launching 288 warheads into the hurricane would do something
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Sep 2, 2019 16:49
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Party Plane Jones posted:i've been through, poo poo, like 11 hurricanes and many more tropical storms in my time of living in florida and at a certain point you become extremely blasé until evacuation orders start coming down. floyd's track caused everyone to freak the gently caress out and there was a massive evacuation which ended up turning out not to be needed; so far dorian is very close to floyd/matthew in that regard 2004/2005 was a pain because of the flooding and roadwork, some were out of power for up to 3 weeks also Al! posted:i hope they take a real long time restoring ur power so my cspam friends can post
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Sep 2, 2019 16:51
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Party Plane Jones posted:i've been through, poo poo, like 11 hurricanes and many more tropical storms in my time of living in florida and at a certain point you become extremely blasé until evacuation orders start coming down. floyd's track caused everyone to freak the gently caress out and there was a massive evacuation which ended up turning out not to be needed; so far dorian is very close to floyd/matthew in that regard Same. I remember 2004 well. My grandma, whose house I live in now after she died, would up staying with us for like 2 weeks because more loving storms kept coming. I remember Floyd well and it was "My First Hurricane". I evacuated with my grandma and "drove" to Valdosta from Jacksonville. Took me 10 loving hours and I said never again. All I look to do now is get off the island I live on. I've learned to just basically stay prepared, have a go bag ready, watch the track and don't make any definitive decisions until a couple of days prior when predictions seem locked in. Or like now basically. About to bail. But, again, right now, everything is based on this thing turning. I'm not confident. Also learned to avoid the news as much as humanly possible since they like to work people into a frenzy and all that poo poo is bad for my nerves. Doesn't help anything. My local shops were out of bread and water by Thursday. Which is another weird thing to me. I keep bread in my freezer. As far as water and ice go, I fill some jugs up and bag up my own ice. It's quite easy. Why are people running out and buying this stuff in droves? I had all the water and ice I'll need in under 24 hours of prep. HugeGrossBurrito posted:the stall is a very good indicator that the turn will occur, if it didn't stall yeah it would have gone directly to Florida. The models have been performing better every year and have done very well with this storm and a landfall on florida would be within the accepted margin of error especially for globals like the euro. This storm has an extremely tight but powerful wind area and a 50 mile movement is huge. Your assumptions are not very good lol. Wind doesn't worry me much. Flooding does. Like I said, there's been some weird Super Moon Tide thing happening to the west of my island. As for models performing better, you're probably right but the tracking on this one has been all over the loving place and feels "off" to me. 4 or 5 days ago, Orlando seemed utterly hosed. I made fun of my ex for prematurely booking a room in Gainseville. Now that looks like the smart play.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:53
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Can't even image what it would be like to have category 5 eyewall winds for an entire day
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Sep 2, 2019 16:53
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:Can't even image what it would be like to have category 5 eyewall winds for an entire day like this ffwiwoookisshhhhshbsbbiowkkwoowosshshhhh whoososhhhshsbhsbbsb hshshshshshs woooshhhhhshshshshsh jdkamsbdnsk woooooosh woooooooshhshshshshshshsh (for an entire day)
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Sep 2, 2019 16:55
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soy posted:like this Well you wont have to imagine what it can do anymore!
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Sep 2, 2019 16:56
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BiggerBoat posted:As for models performing better, you're probably right but the tracking on this one has been all over the loving place and feels "off" to me. 4 or 5 days ago, Orlando seemed utterly hosed. I made fun of my ex for prematurely booking a room in Gainseville. Now that looks like the smart play. Maybe im just a nerd about this but ive been following it for a week and its been pretty well forecasted, I definitely understand the whole not trusting the forecasting as the weather gets crazier from climate change but scientists are also factoring this in and the models work with real time info as well. But you are not being unreasonable, my bad. https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168510573589520384 this general set up has been known for days now though so hopefully it holds up because enough people have died from this thing already.
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Sep 2, 2019 16:57
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soy posted:like this Wow that's bad
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Sep 2, 2019 16:57
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I've got a friend who lives in Savannah that can't go home from ATL today because he's been ordered to evacuate as of 9 minutes ago. (Noon) Most of florida is going to be turbofucked with no evac. People are going to die horribly. Lol Crunchy Black has issued a correction as of 17:11 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 17:09
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Crunchy Black posted:I've got a friend who lives in Savannah that can't go home from ATL today because he's been ordered to evacuate as of 9 minutes ago. (Noon) dorians march from the sea
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Sep 2, 2019 17:13
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Squizzle posted:bring jugs of water, and way more underwear and clean shirts than you think youll need Or washing your hair
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Sep 2, 2019 17:18
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