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Squizzle posted:bring jugs of water, and way more underwear and clean shirts than you think youll need I have been inoculating myself against your modern “conveniences” since my youth. By not bathing, wiping my butt or washing my clothes I will be running what’s left of society while you normies fight over the last clean pair of underwear. By residing in a basement and rarely leaving I have prepared myself for the dank conditions of the coming water world. good luck buddy you’re going to need it. my comfort zone is your nightmare
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Sep 2, 2019 17:23
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People doing videos like that are calm because they are powerless and doing what they can. They're doing videos and so on because there's nothing else to do, they've found meaning in doing that, and by doing that they can focus on details and not on the scope of horror. Like someone above said, people handle different kinds of stress differently. We all have different levels of resilience and some people will just go into a kind of "take care of things mode" where they just handle poo poo. These guys are intellectualizing the problem, particularly; they're documenting and taking an accounting and reporting objectively on the situation as it actually is, rather than dealing with the emotional trauma of losing their possessions and the likely death of thousands. Other people are probably dissociating, other people are probably depressively wallowing, other people are embracing death, others are praying, and on and on, but we're not gonna see them. The people having a panic attack and losing hope and succumbing to despair aren't documenting it for the world, they're otherwise preoccupied. I was talkin' to someone else about how this is how ancient civilizations got erased. Today we'll probably rebuild everything in the Bahamas because to not do that means acknowledging that nation-states are impermanent and can end. But ancient civilizations hit with similar events would just be finished. Food stores gone, water supplies made toxic, infrastructure and agriculture annihilated. We're probably watching what would be the end of a nation-state if we didn't live in the era of globalization.
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Sep 2, 2019 17:24
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i also imagine people are calm because the adrenaline wears off after the first few hours
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Sep 2, 2019 17:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Maybe im just a nerd about this but ive been following it for a week and its been pretty well forecasted, I definitely understand the whole not trusting the forecasting as the weather gets crazier from climate change but scientists are also factoring this in and the models work with real time info as well. But you are not being unreasonable, my bad. https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168510573589520384 hell yeah arizona doesn't get enough hurricanes
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Sep 2, 2019 17:28
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Lastgirl posted:they were being eaten the only people who were eaten were rich (except for the guy at the very beginning)
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Sep 2, 2019 17:30
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Maybe im just a nerd about this but ive been following it for a week and its been pretty well forecasted, I definitely understand the whole not trusting the forecasting as the weather gets crazier from climate change but scientists are also factoring this in and the models work with real time info as well. But you are not being unreasonable, my bad. https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1168510573589520384 I'm not arguing with you. I've just lived here for 20+ years and, anecdotally at least, the forecasts for this bastard have seemed off to me and less accurate. It could just be confirmation bias on my part or something unscientific like "having a weird feeling" but, again, I've been through several of these and this is the first time I feel like no one really loving knows. Like, I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see the thing knife right thru Florida, saw it in half and then double back and quarter it. Do you have any comparison models of previous storms that show what was projected side by side with what happened? I'd be interested. Paramemetic posted:People doing videos like that are calm because they are powerless and doing what they can. They're doing videos and so on because there's nothing else to do, they've found meaning in doing that, and by doing that they can focus on details and not on the scope of horror. Like someone above said, people handle different kinds of stress differently. We all have different levels of resilience and some people will just go into a kind of "take care of things mode" where they just handle poo poo. These guys are intellectualizing the problem, particularly; they're documenting and taking an accounting and reporting objectively on the situation as it actually is, rather than dealing with the emotional trauma of losing their possessions and the likely death of thousands. Other people are probably dissociating, other people are probably depressively wallowing, other people are embracing death, others are praying, and on and on, but we're not gonna see them. The people having a panic attack and losing hope and succumbing to despair aren't documenting it for the world, they're otherwise preoccupied. Definitely this. I wrote something similar but you articulated it a little bit better. When I was stubbornly staring down Matthew and refusing to budge, as all my friends called me insane and told me I would die, I watched the water level drastically rise up my driveway in about 90 minutes and when I watch the hourly videos I was making back then now I sound remarkably calm about it. BiggerBoat has issued a correction as of 17:37 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 17:34
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BiggerBoat posted:I'm not arguing with you. I've just lived here for 20+ years and, anecdotally at least, the forecasts for this bastard have seemed off to me and less accurate. It could just be confirmation bias on my part or something unscientific like "having a weird feeling" but, again, I've been through several of these and this is the first time I fell like no one really loving knows. I don't think you are at all I think the very slow speed of this one is rightly making people uneasy, I didn't need to be lovely earlier my bad. I sincerely hope you dont have to deal with anything severe. Climatology of the area is very important and you know it well, its extremely possible you will be right.
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Sep 2, 2019 17:37
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what if hurricanes were exactly like they are now except instead of wind and rain, they made everyone in their radius read erotic fan comics of video game characters
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Sep 2, 2019 17:40
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we got a cat 5 rollin in, reports of widespread multi-chapter giantess vore featuring the blue cat from rockin kats w outer bands of erotic goomba vignettes as far away as south carolina
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Sep 2, 2019 17:43
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Squizzle posted:what if hurricanes were exactly like they are now except instead of wind and rain, they made everyone in their radius read erotic fan comics of video game characters Squizzle posted:we got a cat 5 rollin in, reports of widespread multi-chapter giantess vore featuring the blue cat from rockin kats w outer bands of erotic goomba vignettes as far away as south carolina i feel like thats kind of scarecrow's villain plot from batman begins
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Sep 2, 2019 17:47
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:I don't think you are at all I think the very slow speed of this one is rightly making people uneasy, I didn't need to be lovely earlier my bad. I sincerely hope you dont have to deal with anything severe. Climatology of the area is very important and you know it well, its extremely possible you will be right. You weren't being lovely at all, dude. No worries. Just usually by now and in this stage of the game I have a fairly clear idea of what to expect and this time I don't have anything close to that feeling. Since you study this stuff, I'll ask again though since I'm curious and too busy to go searching: Do you have any comparison models of previous storms that show what was projected side by side with what happened? I'd be interested.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:07
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BiggerBoat posted:You weren't being lovely at all, dude. No worries. Yeah theres a page that has some, some have verified very badly some very well, ill try to find it. At least the last few frames of radar the storm seems to be going north already edit- this is not what i was looking for and very dry but its something https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/ HugeGrossBurrito has issued a correction as of 18:11 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 18:09
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I lived though Charlie/frances/jeanne in 2004, right about on the X (where they crossed, I was in the red circle), and I agree with the guy who’s suspicious of the predicted track like that poo poo doesn’t have its turn signal on or something, I’m feeling the one track that has it riding up into cape Canaveral then through volusia county  tropical tidbits agrees with me (around 8 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4BAXqEcGYk
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Sep 2, 2019 18:10
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:lots of people are dying Wonder if Trump will call the death tolls fake again, like he did for Puerto Rico Super cool that whether or not the US president shows sympathy and/or gives some support depends fully on how white he imagines the population to be
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Sep 2, 2019 18:13
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https://twitter.com/MLRudolph_/status/1168571279655538688
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Sep 2, 2019 18:14
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https://twitter.com/MorrisMedici/status/1168570843754049538
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Sep 2, 2019 18:18
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I was searching like an overlay comparison map by year of predicted tracks versus actual paths but coming up empty.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:18
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that's depressing
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Sep 2, 2019 18:19
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Squizzle posted:i remember the cspam gunpla thread those models were hella accurate
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Sep 2, 2019 18:19
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lots of people died in katrina from this. need to bring an axe into the attic with you so you can cut through the roof.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:20
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Squizzle posted:we got a cat 5 rollin in, reports of widespread multi-chapter giantess vore featuring the blue cat from rockin kats w outer bands of erotic goomba vignettes as far away as south carolina A-A-A Hornycane you say?? Only the deflating powers of the President standing in it's path, naked, can we overcome this.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:20
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poo poo, I would absolutely lose my poo poo if my home got flooded like in those videos. It's a loving nightmare.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:22
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Jesus Christ. I honeymooned there in Freeport in 2006.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:24
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BiggerBoat posted:I was searching like an overlay comparison map by year of predicted tracks versus actual paths but coming up empty. Heres Matthew real path:  Model runs: 
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Sep 2, 2019 18:28
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BiggerBoat posted:I was searching like an overlay comparison map by year of predicted tracks versus actual paths but coming up empty. The predicted track changes with each new forecast, though. It’s not like there is some monolithic predicted track for the entire multi-week lifetime of some of these storms. Here’s an example of how the cone changes as time passes: Otacon posted:Cone of Uncertainty update timelapse - https://gfycat.com/drearyimpressivegalapagoshawk
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Sep 2, 2019 18:29
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Polo-Rican posted:Wonder if Trump will call the death tolls fake again, like he did for Puerto Rico A lot of people died in Puerto Rico from the actual storm but thousands more died needlessly after because we neglected them and a bunch of assholes grifted all the aid money. It wasn't even negligence, it was straight up greed and malicious intent that killed thousands. Trump called those numbers fake because he was directly responsible. That storm didn't kill them, his administration did and everyone responsible should be introduced to a rope. Pohl has issued a correction as of 18:39 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 18:32
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when was it downgraded?
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Sep 2, 2019 18:36
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julian assflange posted:when was it downgraded? Yeah, it's a cat 4 now. It might get stronger once it moves away from Grand Bahama though.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:49
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Grundulum posted:The predicted track changes with each new forecast, though. It’s not like there is some monolithic predicted track for the entire multi-week lifetime of some of these storms. Here’s an example of how the cone changes as time passes: That's a good point. There's not one Here's What We Said it Would Do definitive forecast but you could still break down what I'm talking about categorically by days or something and base it all of the NHC models. I dunno. Right now none of it loving matters because in 48 hours or so I'm gonna find out if I still have a home and I have to get my rear end out of here. Honestly enjoying the solitude for the moment and about to head down to my pool near the intercoastal for a quick dip because I'm fairly certain it'll be my last chance for long while and I want to look at those water levels again. Ah poo poo. It just started raining. And thanks Burrito for those images. Very cool.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:56
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BiggerBoat posted:And thanks Burrito for those images. Very cool. it’s a really cool idea and I think I’m going to use some GIS software with someone I know who is knowledgeable with it to try to make maps on major historical hurricanes with overlays of each model run on the major models that I can find. doesn’t do you any good but if I ever come up with anything good I’ll let you know it’s just an incredible amount of data.
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Sep 2, 2019 18:59
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Apparently lots of people at the beach(?)
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Sep 2, 2019 19:00
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look at the SA famous Jose hurricane cause that thing tracked wildly back and forth in location and intensity
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Sep 2, 2019 19:02
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:it’s a really cool idea and I think I’m going to use some GIS software with someone I know who is knowledgeable with it to try to make maps on major historical hurricanes with overlays of each model run on the major models that I can find. doesn’t do you any good but if I ever come up with anything good I’ll let you know it’s just an incredible amount of data. I think it's a neat idea too. I thought there'd be something online similar but gently caress if I can find it. Like the other dude said, you also have to settle on one basic model as a base point or at least average them out somehow otherwise the predictions range from the Gulf of Mexico to 400 miles out in the Atlantic.
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Sep 2, 2019 19:04
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Pohl posted:A lot of people died in Puerto Rico from the actual storm but thousands more died needlessly after because we neglected them and a bunch of assholes grifted all the aid money. It wasn't even negligence, it was straight up greed and malicious intent that killed thousands.
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Sep 2, 2019 19:12
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Pohl posted:A lot of people died in Puerto Rico from the actual storm but thousands more died needlessly after because we neglected them and a bunch of assholes grifted all the aid money. It wasn't even negligence, it was straight up greed and malicious intent that killed thousands. Yup, almost all of those deaths were preventable if the Trump admin gave a single gently caress about the lives of brown people.
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Sep 2, 2019 19:18
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what’s the latest model for Florida landfall?
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Sep 2, 2019 19:20
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https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1168583794582073345?s=21
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Sep 2, 2019 19:23
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Chuka Umana posted:what’s the latest model for Florida landfall? This is kept up to date as the models are updated: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155815.shtml?gm_track 
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Sep 2, 2019 19:25
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Chuka Umana posted:what’s the latest model for Florida landfall? Do you seriously not have google? Also, when these threads happen everyone predicts massive death tolls but that's really not what happens. Yes, there are casualties but most of the damage is to people's way of life, infrastructure and property. The storms turn actual cities and towns into 3rd world hell holes. Typically, the actual number of deaths from drowning, flying debris, tornadoes and poo poo is fairly small. I'm not understating the danger or making light of anything but death tolls directly attributed to the storms are smaller than you'd think, even for people in the direct path. Flooding is by far the biggest problem and it can take years for someone affected by them to get their life back to normal, to say nothing of the financial ruin.
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Sep 2, 2019 19:31
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BiggerBoat posted:Do you seriously not have google? while I, in principle, agree, Puerto Rico's shows that these cat 5 storms have the potential for catastrophic loss of life. we'll see how the Bahamas fair, but it could be very bad. but a Florida landfall is less everyone dieing and more everyone being turbo hosed.
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Sep 2, 2019 19:38
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