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So Israel and Hezbollah were exchanging shots at the Lebanese border? quote:NEWS/ISRAEL More:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/israeli-army-fires-lebanon-hezbollah-missile-attack-190901134806880.html
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Sep 2, 2019 21:52
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Some dude on reddit made a surprisingly credible and extremely long effort post like a week ago about how a conflict is about to pop off between israel and lebanon
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Sep 2, 2019 22:48
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Some dude on reddit made a surprisingly credible and extremely long effort post like a week ago about how a conflict is about to pop off between israel and lebanon Can you link it? Please and thanks
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Sep 2, 2019 22:53
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https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/cxoa4u/israel_and_hezbollah_close_to_war_an_analysis/
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Sep 2, 2019 22:57
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Herstory Begins Now posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/cxoa4u/israel_and_hezbollah_close_to_war_an_analysis/ Eh, it seems to me more likely that Bibi just wants to stir up some poo poo so that people vote for him so that he doesn't go to jail. Israel's parliamentary elections are September 17th, and he's had a good track record of Looking Tough to win elections, so that people are distracted that he's a terrible PM and a corrupt rear end in a top hat. But we'll see, the current exchange seems to have satisfied the "tit-for-tat" principle (i.e. Israel attacked Beirut and killed two Hezbollah soldiers, then Hezbollah fired on a IDF center and maybe injured a soldier or two). But, I guess it's always Israeli will respond to the Hezbollah responses and escalate it again, as it seems kind of in their court now for what happens. At least Hezbollah didn't particularly amplify the current issue. This is all really putting hell to my own drone permit application that is pending with the Lebanese air force. lolll I picked a terrible time to submit that. Saladman fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 23:33
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It was an armoured military ambulance and the IDF pretended to evacuate injured soldiers to hospital only later to declare that there were no casualties, presumably to provide Hezbollah with the victory images they need for domestic consumption. A cynic might think that the Israeli government and Hezbollah need each other as an enemy to support their own political agenda. https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1168549100062744576 Unimpressed fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Sep 2, 2019 |
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Sep 2, 2019 23:37
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Unimpressed posted:It was an armoured military ambulance and the IDF pretended to evacuate injured soldiers to hospital only later to declare that there were no casualties, presumably to provide Hezbollah with the victory images they need for domestic consumption. According to Hezbollah, the missiles launched from Lebanon destroyed a tank, killing and wounding those inside it. Israel, however, said the attack did not lead to any casualties on its side. Al JAZEERA reported "Tank" seems pretty ubiquitous as its moving pretty fast for a tank. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Sep 3, 2019 |
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Sep 3, 2019 00:06
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
The arabic word for "Armored Vehicle" covers tanks and armoured cars.
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Sep 3, 2019 00:43
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Unimpressed posted:It was an armoured military ambulance and the IDF pretended to evacuate injured soldiers to hospital only later to declare that there were no casualties, presumably to provide Hezbollah with the victory images they need for domestic consumption. Hmm, two ATGMs from different directions, impacting within a second of each other. Pretty organized.
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Sep 3, 2019 01:36
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Count Roland posted:Hmm, two ATGMs from different directions, impacting within a second of each other. Pretty organized. Hezbollah are probably the only force in the middle east on par with the IDF accounting for the level of capabilities they possess.
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Sep 3, 2019 01:50
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Unimpressed posted:Hezbollah are probably the only force in the middle east on par with the IDF accounting for the level of capabilities they possess. Yeah, Hezbollah famously proved itself formidable during the 2006 war. This is the first evidence I've seen in ages of Hezbollah still being able to catch Israel by surprise; even though Israel was fully expecting this attack.
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Sep 3, 2019 01:53
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I dunno. Hezbollah has its Tiger Force equivalent, but how big is it realistically compared to the IDF?
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Sep 3, 2019 01:57
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I dunno. Hezbollah has its Tiger Force equivalent, but how big is it realistically compared to the IDF? I don't think their strength is in numbers. They are basically a special operations detachment of the Iranian Republican Guard right on Israel's border. They have good training, and good weapons. And nowadays they are pretty battle hardened from so many serving in Syria.
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Sep 3, 2019 02:01
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I dunno. Hezbollah has its Tiger Force equivalent, but how big is it realistically compared to the IDF? Size doesnt matter in a layered defense strong point strategy like what Hezbollah employs. Israel can only project forces so far into lebanon before they get mired in vicious rocket attack volleys 24/7. I cant see morale to move forward and kill the arabs to be very high when rockets are raining and blowing up civilians and the idf alike.
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Sep 3, 2019 02:13
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Am I remembering correctly, or didn't Hezbollah (or at least the Leabonese shia) used to have a lot of internal problems dealing with Palestinian refugees? Is that still an issue, or has that resolved itself to some degree?
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Sep 3, 2019 02:22
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I think people overstate what Hezbollah accomplished in 2006, and that elevating them to a near-equal to the Israeli armed forces seems wrong. They didn't really beat Israel so much as outlast them, since even the permissive environment Bush provided Israel led to the rest of the world wondering what was taking so long and telling them to knock it off, particularly as civilian casualties mounted. Arguably Hezbollah wouldn't have that to fall back on in a conflict today, since Trump is even more rabidly pro-Israel than Bush was, and the war in Syria made Hezbollah a lot of enemies/made some of those enemies less reluctant to side with Israel on regional matters, and showed what a real bloodbath looks like. That isn't to say Israel can easily roll in and stomp Hezbollah, but if war breaks out I think there will be fewer voices (with the exception of Russia, presumably) calling for a quick end to the conflict.
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Sep 3, 2019 03:17
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Sinteres posted:I think people overstate what Hezbollah accomplished in 2006, and that elevating them to a near-equal to the Israeli armed forces seems wrong. They didn't really beat Israel so much as outlast them, since even the permissive environment Bush provided Israel led to the rest of the world wondering what was taking so long and telling them to knock it off, particularly as civilian casualties mounted. Arguably Hezbollah wouldn't have that to fall back on in a conflict today, since Trump is even more rabidly pro-Israel than Bush was, and the war in Syria made Hezbollah a lot of enemies/made some of those enemies less reluctant to side with Israel on regional matters, and showed what a real bloodbath looks like. That isn't to say Israel can easily roll in and stomp Hezbollah, but if war breaks out I think there will be fewer voices (with the exception of Russia, presumably) calling for a quick end to the conflict. I do think that they deserved some operational credibility from that, to be sure, but the majority of the change in opinion was their strength specifically wrt the IDF and that was far more a case of the IDF appearing wildly, ridiculously incompetent at actual war fighting than anything else. Hezbollah just appeared competent in the face of a vastly better equipped and, in theory, trained and higher tech foe. Which, to be fair, is like 90% of what a reputation for being a legit military is based upon, but still I do somewhat agree with you about the initial point. As to how they relate now, well one of them has a huge amount of fresh combat experience in a variety of different modes of war and the other has done nothing operational against people who shoot back in over a decade. A lot of what hezbollah demanded in exchange for help in syria was arms and equipment and pretty much entirely stuff intended to help out in a possible conflict with Israel. Biggest question wrt their effectiveness is how much manpower they threw into the syrian meat grinder.
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Sep 3, 2019 05:02
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Also I suspect that their operational ability to sustain shooting atgms into Israeli tanks would greatly outlast the Israeli public's willingness to keep having tanks blown up
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Sep 3, 2019 05:04
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Saladman posted:Eh, it seems to me more likely that Bibi just wants to stir up some poo poo so that people vote for him so that he doesn't go to jail. Israel's parliamentary elections are September 17th, and he's had a good track record of Looking Tough to win elections, so that people are distracted that he's a terrible PM and a corrupt rear end in a top hat. May you expand upon this? I'm pretty unaware of Bibi's history outside of his nickname of magician.
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Sep 3, 2019 05:11
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I don't think anyone equates Hezbollah's strength to the IDF. Rather in the capabilities they have, essentially light infantry at up to company scale, they are as proficient as any force. Israel underestimated Hezbollah drastically in 2006, deployed its forces piecemeal and relied on assault by fire instead of by manoeuvre. Hezbollah executed a near perfect inferior force strategy, blended into the populace when required and used assymetrical fires effectively, whether precise munitions against armour or rocket fire into Israeli civilian centres. Their proficiency in executing their strategy was at the highest level and I doubt the IDF will underestimate them in future. Bottom line is they have established an effective deterrent against one of the most powerful militaries in the world, one that is otherwise deploying force across the region with abandon.
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Sep 3, 2019 05:48
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I’m sure this is SOP for the IDF lol https://twitter.com/Zinvor/status/1168661649206722561
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Sep 3, 2019 06:05
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Hezbollah is a quiet entity in terms of their buildup. It's been 12 loving years since 2006. 12 years of mostly undisturbed missile development aswell as hardening of their fortresses.
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Sep 3, 2019 06:10
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:I’m sure this is SOP for the IDF lol What the hell is going on there lol
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Sep 3, 2019 07:54
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Tab8715 posted:May you expand upon this? I'm pretty unaware of Bibi's history outside of his nickname of magician. He's under a bunch of corruption probes, so many that it's not just a subset of his Wikipedia entry, but it has its own entire Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_involving_Benjamin_Netanyahu He also has immunity, and power, so long as he's PM, so he won't leave office willingly. Stirring up, but not actually starting, a war is a great way to get votes.
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Sep 3, 2019 08:30
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'abandoned apcs' are two 60+ year old m113s, which israel has like 5500 of and lebanon already has over 1000 of E: random aside, but the m113 is a particularly cool piece of military equipment as far as that poo poo goes in that it's basically the ak47 of APCs. It was simple and idiot proof, cheap, effective, efficient, and extremely mobile (they're even amphibious). Plus they carried 11 soldiers. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 10:34 on Sep 3, 2019 |
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Sep 3, 2019 10:18
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A new UN report has been published on Yemen, with some serious statements: https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/1168831036379357184 https://twitter.com/HodaAH/status/1168842650340003840 quote:U.S., France, Britain may be complicit in Yemen war crimes, U.N. report says
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Sep 3, 2019 12:10
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Herstory Begins Now posted:'abandoned apcs' are two 60+ year old m113s, which israel has like 5500 of and lebanon already has over 1000 of Look at all the poo poo bolted on it, it’s an artillery observer or command vehicle or something. Regardless they left the loving hatch open - lmao they were shook (or maybe it really is some next level mind game but I doubt it).
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Sep 3, 2019 13:43
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Here just use this cnc vehicle we happen to have left behind and definitely didn't conveniently wire up with a billion bugs first I mean who knows what happened without actual info, much less non russia today info, but nothing as presented adds up yet.
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Sep 3, 2019 16:07
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presumably they would have driven it away if it was operational, though I suppose they probably would have more fully disabled it if they were intending to abandon it.
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Sep 3, 2019 17:35
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quote:The M113 took part in the Yom Kippur War in October 1973, when the IDF was equipped with 448 M113s that saw action on the Sinai and Golan fronts. They proved inadequate for direct fighting due to their poor armor protection. In the Battle of Buq'atta most of the 7th Recon Company was wiped out while trying to assault Syrian commandos with their M-113s.[39] They were used by the IDF in the 1978 South Lebanon conflict. In the 1982 Lebanon War, they saw heavy action. PLO ambushes with RPGs caused extensive casualties because of the tendency of the M113's aluminum armor to catch on fire after being hit by anti-tank weapons. Israeli infantrymen being ferried by M113s learned to quickly dismount and fight on foot when engaged.[40] By the time of the Siege of Beirut, M113s were only used to carry supplies to the front line, always stopping at least 100 meters from enemy lines. M113s were subsequently used by both the IDF and the South Lebanon Army during the South Lebanon conflict. lovely transport. It will make a great tractor.
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Sep 3, 2019 18:59
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:lovely transport. It will make a great tractor. I mean the M113 isn't and never was intended to survive RPG hits. Pretty much no IFV or APC is outside of the few Israeli APC models they converted from old tank hulls. What it does a great job of is protecting infantry from artillery and small arms fire. If your options are an M113, a truck, or walking, what do you think is the safer form of transportation?
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Sep 3, 2019 20:09
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:lovely transport. It will make a great tractor. Well yeah when you try to use it as an infantry fighting vehicle of course that’s the result. It ain’t made for getting into shoot outs, it’s only armored against small arms fire
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Sep 3, 2019 20:38
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I’m starting a gofundme to send someone back to that base, go through the personal effects, and mail the soldiers’ porno mags to their mommas
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Sep 3, 2019 20:44
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Here just use this cnc vehicle we happen to have left behind and definitely didn't conveniently wire up with a billion bugs first that reminds me of the buildings China generously built for the... African Union? that were pretty much more listening device than construction material 
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Sep 3, 2019 20:55
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:I’m starting a gofundme to send someone back to that base, go through the personal effects, and mail the soldiers’ porno mags to their mommas Are you like 60 years old? Porno magazines are like... not a thing people have anymore.
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Sep 3, 2019 21:20
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Saladman posted:Are you like 60 years old? Porno magazines are like... not a thing people have anymore. Ever been part of a military? They are a thing.
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Sep 3, 2019 21:35
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Saladman posted:Are you like 60 years old? Porno magazines are like... not a thing people have anymore. Yeah my tablet gets great reception in the field. I keep the signal up continuously because you never know when you might wanna beat your meat
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Sep 3, 2019 22:48
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Kawasaki Nun posted:Yeah my tablet gets great reception in the field. I keep the signal up continuously because you never know when you might wanna beat your meat Yeah I guess for US military, but for IDF here’s an exhaustive list of places that they don’t get at least 3G coeverage in Israel and Palestine: Actually maybe there’s like one military base in the Negev that only gets EDGE.
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Sep 3, 2019 23:10
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its interesting reading about the life of the average person in conflict zones in places like syria and then realizing wow, in probably less than 20 years that'll be the lifestyle of most human beings!
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Sep 4, 2019 03:47
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Erdogan's a loving lunatic: https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1169329554336432136
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Sep 4, 2019 22:24
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