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Martian
May 29, 2005

Grimey Drawer
What the gently caress

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1168796787701899264?s=19

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

notaspy posted:

Using the election matters website to work out which seats the lib dems could target reveals that 86 of the 100 seats are tory. Make of that what you will.

And they also split 50/50 leave/remain.

This is going to be a wild GE.

Is there any real path to a Labor majority?

bump_fn
Apr 12, 2004

two of them

mcmagic posted:

Is there any real path to a Labor majority?

probably not but they could form a coalition, eg with SNP

but would SNP coalition with labour if labour is pushing for another referendum and not just revoking art50

Sanitary Naptime
May 29, 2006

MIWK!


mcmagic posted:

Is there any real path to a Labor majority?

Brexit party splitting the tory vote, and the lib dems being shown up consistently as wank. So yes.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/Gregstweet/status/1168908871852789761

Lib Dems losing their base for short term gains of power under the guise of the bigger picture you say, who could have thunk it.
I was amazed that the UK doesn't have a Hep B immunization program, that makes it one of the few developed countries that haven't.

Extremely not amazed that the Tory GP prefers screening and banning immigrants with Hep B to actually doing something about it though.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

I mean, in context it's a question asking students to write an argument from a Machiavelli excerpt (lol) to show they understood what he wrote and can apply it to a different example.

notaspy
Mar 22, 2009

mcmagic posted:

Is there any real path to a Labor majority?

As the posters above me say, and I agree, via colalition with the snp.

Have the 2 refs, the timing will need to be eu ref first to get the scots to help get it over the line. Also means that Scottish independence is not a foregone conclusion, but I am cool with Scottish independence fyi but prefer unions and poo poo. Call new election, slim majority, implement full socialism now.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

notaspy posted:

As the posters above me say, and I agree, via colalition with the snp.

Have the 2 refs, the timing will need to be eu ref first to get the scots to help get it over the line. Also means that Scottish independence is not a foregone conclusion, but I am cool with Scottish independence fyi but prefer unions and poo poo. Call new election, slim majority, implement full socialism now.

Yeah so this is encouraging at least.

Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1168923029986054144

Now that's unexpected.

AceClown
Sep 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1168901239016501251

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
Gonna be pretty lol if Tories win majority on the back of NDB, despite their last 3 PMs being Remainers

AceOfFlames
Oct 9, 2012


Who said the educational system no longer teaches practical skills?

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry
The Little Racist Island That Couldn’t Decide on Anything

Thetobester
Jul 14, 2012
And according to the bbc's banner the lib dems won't vote to trigger an election. They're not even going to wait to start propping up the Tories.

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Guavanaut posted:

I was amazed that the UK doesn't have a Hep B immunization program, that makes it one of the few developed countries that haven't.

Extremely not amazed that the Tory GP prefers screening and banning immigrants with Hep B to actually doing something about it though.

It's offered to all babies since August 2017 as part of the 6-in-1 and offered on the NHS if you're in an at-risk group

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/hepatitis-b-vaccine/

quote:

Hepatitis B vaccine on the NHS
A hepatitis B-containing vaccine is provided for all babies born in the UK on or after 1 August 2017. This is given as part of the 6-in-1 vaccine.

Hospitals, GP surgeries and sexual health or GUM clinics usually provide the hepatitis B vaccination free of charge for anyone at risk of infection.

GPs are not obliged to provide the hepatitis B vaccine on the NHS if you're not thought to be at risk.

GPs may charge for the hepatitis B vaccine if you want it as a travel vaccine, or they may refer you to a travel clinic for a private vaccination. The current cost of the vaccine is around £50 a dose.

Nuclear Spoon
Aug 18, 2010

I want to cry out
but I don’t scream and I don’t shout
And I feel so proud
to be alive
can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008


I've noticed the Tories are pushing the narrative that blocking no deal is a Corbyn/Labour plan. It's probably aimed at the rebels but it's Good For Jeremy Corbyn among remainers

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

mcmagic posted:

Is there any real path to a Labor majority?

I don't know anything about Australian politics, I'm afraid. A Labour government of some sort is looking real possible, though.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Nuclear Spoon posted:

can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

Search ur feelings

peanut-
Feb 17, 2004
Fun Shoe

Thetobester posted:

And according to the bbc's banner the lib dems won't vote to trigger an election. They're not even going to wait to start propping up the Tories.

I thought Labour weren't going to either? At least not without some conditions attached. Not voting for the election fucks the Tories more.

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Nuclear Spoon posted:

can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

The logic, such as it is, is that the negotiations are a game of chicken and if we show that we're willing to gently caress everything over then the EU will offer a good deal to prevent it.

It's the international negotiation equivalent of threatening suicide to manipulate people

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Nuclear Spoon posted:

can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

The plan is to threaten to leave without a deal.

Brexiteers think this means holding the EU's future hostage, forcing the EU to surrender to the reborn British Empire and accept British terms.

The reality-based community realises this means the UK is holding its own economy hostage, and the EU will just go ":shrug: well we tried" before watching Albion sink into the sea.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Doccykins posted:

It's offered to all babies since August 2017 as part of the 6-in-1 and offered on the NHS if you're in an at-risk group

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/hepatitis-b-vaccine/
Looks like they did partially listen to the WHO sometime between Lee's kick-em-out Bill and the present day then, that's good news.

Still, 2017... I remember articles on the lack of Hep B herd immunity in the UK dating back to the early 00s.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy
Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Nuclear Spoon posted:

can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

You’re playing russian roulette in a basement and you get to go first

Suddenly you grab the revolver and palm-slam six bullets into the cylinder instead of just one, point it at your head and exclaim, smiling, that MORE BULLETS = MORE WIN

Doctor_Fruitbat
Jun 2, 2013


There's some logic behind not completely ruling out no deal, in as much as being willing to walk away from a bad deal as a general principle should always theoretically be on the table, even if you're in the weaker negotiating position.

Unless you've completely loving botched everything and don't have a leg to stand on, so it's a good thing that they haven't spent three years doing exactly that.

Necrothatcher
Mar 26, 2005




freeasinbeer posted:

Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

Strong 2017 energy right here.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

freeasinbeer posted:

Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

Uniform-swing models are bollocks at the best of times, in this election of all elections they're basically pointless.

Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010
https://twitter.com/LGBTCons/status/1168920066391519232

lmao i don't think this sends the message they think it does

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


bump_fn posted:

probably not but they could form a coalition, eg with SNP

but would SNP coalition with labour if labour is pushing for another referendum and not just revoking art50

Neither party seems keen on a formal coalition.

SNP will most likely back the necessary confidence vote to put Corbyn in No.10 because otherwise it's the Tories, though I'm sure some posters here will say they'll do everything they can to make sure the Tories get back in, but Corbyn's said he'll do a new indy ref in a couple years if they want, so they'll put him in, and then abstain or not be able to vote on much else due to EVEL.

What's important is if Labour have an English majority for EVEL or not.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Nuclear Spoon posted:

can someone explain the logic of "legislating to rule out no-deal will make it harder to negotiate with the EU" or is this just some bullshit the tories are repeating over and over again so people begin to think it's true

You know how abusive people in relationships threaten to kill themselves so their partner won't leave?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Pochoclo posted:

You’re playing russian roulette in a basement and you get to go first

Suddenly you grab the revolver and palm-slam six bullets into the cylinder instead of just one, point it at your head and exclaim, smiling, that MORE BULLETS = MORE WIN
Every morning I wake up and open palm slam six rounds into the cylinder. It's a British made Webley Mk VI Top-Break Revolver and right then and there I survive because the loving thing breaks.

Sanitary Naptime
May 29, 2006

MIWK!


e: ^^ :discourse:

freeasinbeer posted:

Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

No, he's not, that was a yougov poll

Sanitary Naptime fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Sep 3, 2019

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

mehall posted:

Neither party seems keen on a formal coalition.

SNP will most likely back the necessary confidence vote to put Corbyn in No.10 because otherwise it's the Tories, though I'm sure some posters here will say they'll do everything they can to make sure the Tories get back in, but Corbyn's said he'll do a new indy ref in a couple years if they want, so they'll put him in, and then abstain or not be able to vote on much else due to EVEL.

What's important is if Labour have an English majority for EVEL or not.

I'm like 80% confident EVEL is going in the bin if Labour get in anyway tbh

notaspy
Mar 22, 2009

I know we are all excited at Boris making GBS threads the bed but if there was a GE he can still campaign on people v parliament and with what rhe EU just said he still has "i need a majority to force their hand".

And nothing that happens in parliament matters anymore, it's all about the bbc news, the papers, and twitter in that order.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


freeasinbeer posted:

Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

It's fairly grim. But polling in the UK isn't necessarily that reliable as it's really not done at a constituency level. The potential swing would be bad but polling in 2017 was way out so all we can do is hope that once campaign law kicks in and the news legal has to give Labour a fair go it'll correct.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Of course that doesn't mean the SNP won't continue to abstain on English and Welsh only bills as it's as much party position now

stev
Jan 22, 2013

Please be excited.



Doctor_Fruitbat posted:

There's some logic behind not completely ruling out no deal, in as much as being willing to walk away from a bad deal as a general principle should always theoretically be on the table, even if you're in the weaker negotiating position.

The option to walk away from a bad deal is still on the table though - as we have the option to keep things as they are.

coffeetable
Feb 5, 2006

TELL ME AGAIN HOW GREAT BRITAIN WOULD BE IF IT WAS RULED BY THE MERCILESS JACKBOOT OF PRINCE CHARLES

YES I DO TALK TO PLANTS ACTUALLY

freeasinbeer posted:

Man is the Jam man really looking down the barrel of losing 45 seats if a GE was held?

That’s uhhhhh, not great.

triangulation.jpg

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Sanitary Naptime
May 29, 2006

MIWK!


kustomkarkommando posted:

Of course that doesn't mean the SNP won't continue to abstain on English and Welsh only bills as it's as much party position now

tbh it would be a good tactic to repeal EVEL, and then challenge them on not wanting to deliver left wing policies if any of them fail.

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