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I don't have near enough technical knowledge to dissect this, but I figured you guys might find it interesting. It's the hedge fund manager who bet against CDOs in 2008 (The Big Short is about him) essentially saying he sees a lot of the same risk factors in Index funds. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-explains-104146627.html
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Sep 4, 2019 16:27
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I don't have near enough technical knowledge to dissect this, but I figured you guys might find it interesting. It's the hedge fund manager who bet against CDOs in 2008 (The Big Short is about him) essentially saying he sees a lot of the same risk factors in Index funds. Is this related to the thread title?
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Sep 4, 2019 16:39
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I don't have near enough technical knowledge to dissect this, but I figured you guys might find it interesting. It's the hedge fund manager who bet against CDOs in 2008 (The Big Short is about him) essentially saying he sees a lot of the same risk factors in Index funds. Okay.
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Sep 4, 2019 16:41
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Yeah he's just pitching his own services and personally held funds. 2008 was 11 years ago. What has be been right about LATELY? "he has kept a low profile since 2008" is a pretty damning statement for someone who's supposed to be able to predict the future.
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Sep 4, 2019 16:52
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Luck is not a good predictor of foresight.
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Sep 4, 2019 17:23
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Mu Zeta posted:0.04% in California what the gently caress In socialist California, profit is illegal.
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Sep 4, 2019 17:32
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dexter6 posted:Any after-tax 401k / tax experts here? A return of excess is possible if there is money in your 401k to claw out. You've left out an important details: Are you doing in-service rollovers to a different plan that isn't your 401k? If so, you will need to not do that so that there is money available, or talk to your administrators to verify that they understand there is $0 in your 401k and how would a return of excess work? I also thought it was the day the money was accounted for on your paycheck that mattered for which year's limit, but as with all 401k things who knows.
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Sep 4, 2019 17:40
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Umister posted:I'm going to super pretend that I didn't just discover your SA account here; hey friend! If your 401(k) allows IRA rollovers, see if you can move your trad. IRA balance over so that you can start doing backdoor roth IRA contributions right away. DRAT, I AM DISCOVER I'm already rolling over mine and milady's trad IRAs to Roths at $2500/year in order to keep the tax burden down. Is IRA rollovers into a 401k a good idea if the 401k fund doesn't have an equivalent to the IRA? We basically have VFORX and VFIFX for me and my wife's IRAs respectively, and my Schwab 401k doesn't offer VFORX. Hers does have VFIFX so at least that'd be one to one, if it's allowed. Dumb question, but if I move change jobs, and I want to keep working on a backdoor conversion scenario if possible, would a former company's HR department still work on it with me as a former employee or would they be all "you quit, roll your 401k over elsewhere and go away, binch"? spwrozek posted:Generally bonds in a sheltered account, International can be pretty good in a taxable account. Is that the type of stuff you are talking about? This is also what I'd be interested in learning. I do invest post-tax in our brokerage account for Whatever Big Reason Might Be but I'm not sure when I should be looking at moving stuff from riskier investments to less risky tax-advantaged accounts. It may be a question I need to care about in my mid-40s, which is still a handful of years off. Good points also on the HSA as a long-term investment for health. I've generally set our HSA at our annual deductible but a "this is healthcare, and only healthcare" does make sense for when I'm older.
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Sep 4, 2019 18:25
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MJP posted:DRAT, I AM DISCOVER Moving the money immediately nukes out the pro-rata rule however then you likely cannot do those Roth conversions. It Depends(tm) on your plan documents. Leaving: It Depends(tm)! Aren't 401k's great? Some places are fine with it, others you start footing the bill they were normally paying, and others require immediate disbursement - either a rollover or if you ignore the problem they will cash you out and mail you a check less penalties. Read your plan documents. You know that 20 page form you ignored when you signed up? That one. Common wisdom is to roll it out so you aren't beholden to plan changes at your old company, but there are exceptions - if your new place has worse fees than your old place AND you don't want to stuff it into IRA space then you should leave it.
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Sep 4, 2019 18:40
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I have two active 401(k) accounts right now, one for my current job and one for my previous job (I'm 100% vested in both). I'm about to start a new job where I'll be eligible to open a 401(k) after 30 days and where I'll be 100% vested from the start, so I think it's time to be responsible and merge everything into one account. Would it be better/easier to combine the two that I have now and then later move them into my new account, or just wait to open that new one and then transfer my other two directly into it? Also more generally speaking, how do I actually move these things without penalty? I remember looking into it a few years ago and I have to tell them it's a transfer "for the benefit of" me.
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Sep 6, 2019 00:14
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A goofy thought just occurred to me, this is just for fun. Not sure if this is the right thread, but here goes: Suppose the housing bubble bursts sometime in the near future, and I buy myself a nice little house for cheap. After some time passes - I don't know, 5-10 years? - the housing market is back to normal, and I've built up a good chunk of equity. Let's say I take out a reverse mortgage (age prerequisite aside), use those payments for my mortgage, and it's set to come due the same time as the end of my mortgage. So in the end, who owns the house?
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Sep 6, 2019 00:40
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AFAIK a reverse mortgage is just a type of loan that you have to pay when you sell your house or die. You'd still own it, but your house is your loan collateral.
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Sep 6, 2019 00:54
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C-Euro posted:I have two active 401(k) accounts right now, one for my current job and one for my previous job (I'm 100% vested in both). I'm about to start a new job where I'll be eligible to open a 401(k) after 30 days and where I'll be 100% vested from the start, so I think it's time to be responsible and merge everything into one account. Would it be better/easier to combine the two that I have now and then later move them into my new account, or just wait to open that new one and then transfer my other two directly into it? First, you are always 100% vested in any of your own contributions. That includes your paycheck deductions and anything rolled over. Second, what else do you know about your new 401k? Unless it's amazing, you probably want to roll over to an IRA (at Vanguard). Third, you probably want to roll over both to their final destination, either the new 401k or an IRA. Sometimes the rollover can take a while, and it's probably better to not have to wait for that to clear.
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Sep 6, 2019 00:58
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C-Euro posted:I have two active 401(k) accounts right now, one for my current job and one for my previous job (I'm 100% vested in both). I'm about to start a new job where I'll be eligible to open a 401(k) after 30 days and where I'll be 100% vested from the start, so I think it's time to be responsible and merge everything into one account. Would it be better/easier to combine the two that I have now and then later move them into my new account, or just wait to open that new one and then transfer my other two directly into it? You almost certainly want to roll those things in to an IRA
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Sep 6, 2019 01:26
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Unless you ever intend to take advantage of the backdoor Roth IRA due to income limits. Then you don't want any traditional IRA balances.
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Sep 6, 2019 02:05
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Guinness posted:Unless you ever intend to take advantage of the backdoor Roth IRA due to income limits. Then you don't want any traditional IRA balances.
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Sep 6, 2019 03:42
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I don't know anything about the new 401(k) plan right now but I'm not opposed to putting my current accounts into an IRA. Same question for how to move them then  Guinness posted:Unless you ever intend to take advantage of the backdoor Roth IRA due to income limits. Then you don't want any traditional IRA balances. I have no idea what this is so...I guess I don't plan on doing it anytime soon?
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Sep 6, 2019 04:13
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C-Euro posted:I don't know anything about the new 401(k) plan right now but I'm not opposed to putting my current accounts into an IRA. Same question for how to move them then
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Sep 6, 2019 04:25
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C-Euro posted:I have no idea what this is so...I guess I don't plan on doing it anytime soon? If you make more than $137k*, you can't contribute to a Roth IRA directly. Under current tax law, this limit is trivially avoided by contributing to a non-deductible traditional IRA, then immediately converting that to a Roth. The catch is if you have deductible IRA assets, the conversion becomes not so trivial and may trigger some taxes. So if you think your career may take you over that threshold, and your 401k plan(s) don't suck, you should keep the assets in a 401k. * MAGI & depends on your tax filing status & is indexed to inflation, google for the gory details
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Sep 6, 2019 05:41
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If you rollover your trad IRA into a 401k, then I assume that would sidestep the issue?
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Sep 6, 2019 12:41
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drainpipe posted:If you rollover your trad IRA into a 401k, then I assume that would sidestep the issue? Yes, the question is if the new 401k is good or not. If the fees are low sweet. If they are over 1.0 you make some hard decisions.
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Sep 6, 2019 12:46
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SlapActionJackson posted:If you make more than $137k*, you can't contribute to a Roth IRA directly. Under current tax law, this limit is trivially avoided by contributing to a non-deductible traditional IRA, then immediately converting that to a Roth. The catch is if you have deductible IRA assets, the conversion becomes not so trivial and may trigger some taxes.
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Sep 6, 2019 13:57
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MJP posted:
I'm not sure what you could do with a former company's 401k if you're not an employee anymore - can't contribute anything further if there aren't any paycheck to deduct contributions from. I've typically seen options for former employees be: 1) roll it out into an IRA or new 401k, 2) leave the balance in the old 401k until you know what you want to do with it, or more rarely, 3) your balance is pretty low (typically under $5k) so you're getting pushed out after X months, enjoy the forced distribution. MJP posted:Good points also on the HSA as a long-term investment for health. I've generally set our HSA at our annual deductible but a "this is healthcare, and only healthcare" does make sense for when I'm older. If you're looking for more tax advantaged space, you can contribute up to the IRS max into your HSA ($7k for 2019), which may be beyond your actual HSA medical plan's deductible. But that's good - more tax advantaged space that you would hypothetically need for actual medical costs, and typically your HSA vendor will allow you to invest some portion of your HSA balance in their chosen mutual funds. Beats a stick in the eye. FUN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION: You can max out your HSA contribution even if you haven't been enrolled in a matching HSA medical plan for the full calendar year as long as you're enrolled in December of that calendar year. However, you then have to stay enrolled for the following 12 months - if you switch at any point in the following year, your prior year's contributions aren't fully eligible and you'll have to be taxed (I think?) on a prorated amount of the prior year's contribution. Can't predict the future? Sorry, the IRS thinks you should have. If you don't want to risk it, you can choose to contribute only a prorated amount (i.e., enrolling in an HSA plan on Sept 1 means you can contribute 7000/12*4 remaining months in 2019 = $2,333.32.
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Sep 6, 2019 14:06
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spf3million posted:This is the best most concise summary to this frequently asked question I've seen in a while. Someone add it to the OP, tia. Plus 1 this is better than like 90% of the blogs trying to explain it. Question for the thread: what is the timing on the conversion? Obv before you file but I think you need some paperwork for taxes and that isn't instant is it?
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Sep 6, 2019 14:14
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Xguard86 posted:Question for the thread: what is the timing on the conversion? Obv before you file but I think you need some paperwork for taxes and that isn't instant is it? You can do the conversion as soon as the custodian permits. For Vanguard (and probably the vast majority of custodians out there), that's next business day. You don't need any paperwork from the contribution to do the conversion and the paperwork for your tax returns will all come at the end of the calendar year.
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Sep 6, 2019 14:33
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DNK in August 2014 posted:Man, the stock market is going to crash in a substantial way within the next three years, guaranteed. The current valuation of the market, as a whole, is way out of line. We're sitting at an enormous peak! I don't have any money in the system as it stands, and the investments that are targeted towards me -- oh yeah, I'm 26 -- are focused on aggressive growth aka the same stocks that will lose 10-30% of their value in an overarching market correction. Everybody laugh at this guy, and don’t be him. For what it’s worth, I did just throw everything into a Roth IRA target date fund, and I can thank this thread for that. DNK in August 2014 posted:
hehe
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Sep 6, 2019 14:46
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nice what do your sikk gainz look like from 2014-now?
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Sep 6, 2019 14:57
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DNK posted:Everybody laugh at this guy, and don’t be him. For what it’s worth, I did just throw everything into a Roth IRA target date fund, and I can thank this thread for that. I also can't fault him for wanting to pay down 11% debt first, esp. when it'll only take 4 months. That said, timing the market works... barely... if you're perfect. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/does-market-timing-work But you're not perfect so don't bother. totalnewbie fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Sep 6, 2019 |
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Sep 6, 2019 15:27
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If you're "sure" the market is "guaranteed" to dip just put all your money in SPY puts and retire extremely early.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:35
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SlapActionJackson posted:If you make more than $137k*, you can't contribute to a Roth IRA directly. Under current tax law, this limit is trivially avoided by contributing to a non-deductible traditional IRA, then immediately converting that to a Roth. The catch is if you have deductible IRA assets, the conversion becomes not so trivial and may trigger some taxes.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:40
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DJCobol posted:Well poo poo, I didn't look into this far enough ahead. I rolled a small 403(b) from an old employer to a Vanguard IRA where it's sat for the last 10 years or so. I'm approaching the cutoff for Roth contributions in the next year or two. Can I take that rollover from Vanguard, move it to my current employer's 401(k), close that rollover IRA at vanguard, open a traditional IRA and then still do backdoor Roth conversions?
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Sep 6, 2019 15:43
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DJCobol posted:Well poo poo, I didn't look into this far enough ahead. I rolled a small 403(b) from an old employer to a Vanguard IRA where it's sat for the last 10 years or so. I'm approaching the cutoff for Roth contributions in the next year or two. Can I take that rollover from Vanguard, move it to my current employer's 401(k), close that rollover IRA at vanguard, open a traditional IRA and then still do backdoor Roth conversions? If your trad IRA is with Vanguard, you can convert it to Roth by like clicking two buttons.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:46
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:nice like 100%? But the better measure is net worth: I started from -25k and now I’m at like ~110k (plus married, MBA, new-to-me car, and house). The transaction / debt costs for those extras are pretty significant, so they did significantly eat into my financial asset accumulations. If I just lived on gruel and invested everything I’d probably be sitting on like $250k NW (without a wife, MBA, etc).
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Sep 6, 2019 15:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:If your trad IRA is with Vanguard, you can convert it to Roth by like clicking two buttons.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:53
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DJCobol posted:I don't currently have a traditional IRA with vanguard. I have a pretty much everything but that (Roth, Inherited, Rollover, Brokerage).
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Sep 6, 2019 15:56
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:If your trad IRA is with Vanguard, you can convert it to Roth by like clicking two buttons. And he will owe tax on the gains in the account. But if the gains are relatively small and he can come up with the money for the taxes from elsewhere, then it's a good plan B.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:56
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:If your trad IRA is with Vanguard, you can convert it to Roth by like clicking two buttons. And pay taxes now? Why? OP see if your current 401k allows roll ins. If they don't, start badgering HR.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:58
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SlapActionJackson posted:And he will owe tax on the gains in the account. But if the gains are relatively small and he can come up with the money for the taxes from elsewhere, then it's a good plan B.
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Sep 6, 2019 15:58
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C-Euro posted:I don't know anything about the new 401(k) plan right now but I'm not opposed to putting my current accounts into an IRA. Same question for how to move them then Is there anything wrong with your old 401k plans, like high fees? If they have good low fee fund options there is nothing wrong with leaving the money there.
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Sep 6, 2019 16:16
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Hoodwinker posted:Unless they were from a Roth account, both the inherited and rollover are functionally traditional.
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Sep 6, 2019 16:20
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