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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

ERCOT is on thin margins today:



And prices are only continuing to rise: http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_spp

You can refresh the fastest here to follow along: http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html

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Farmer Crack-Ass
Jan 2, 2001

this is me posting irl

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Let it go to waste as we don't have any way to store it .

Overcapacity only helps to a certain extent. The more overcapacity you have the less economic it is to install another panel.

Until we have grid storage that is worth a drat it doesn't help much.

Use the overcapacity to produce liquid fuels, use fuels to run peaker/overnight plants, boom there's your grid storage.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

$1,780 per MWh and climbing. Enron eat your heart out!

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Trabisnikof posted:

$1,780 per MWh and climbing. Enron eat your heart out!

What the gently caress is going on. Are those peak demand prices on Texas?

Edit: after doing some reading it appears Texas is in the midst of a heat wave, and they are closingin on capacity leading to huge surge pricing.

Ercot is encouraging people to conserve, but it isn't helping. Prices hit 900$+ yesterday and people freaked. It's twice that today .

Heck Yes! Loam! fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Sep 6, 2019

Orvin
Sep 9, 2006




http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.html

Shows the current wind forecast. Texas is currently in the mid day valley of wind speeds. And I bet some generation stations have started their fall outages, further constraining the market. So you get all the small old combustion turbines that are bid into the market at super high prices.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
didn't even hear about this until now lol

https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1169997692585598979

https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1170108214454706176

we did it guys :toot:

Pander
Oct 9, 2007

Fear is the glue that holds society together. It's what makes people suppress their worst impulses. Fear is power.

And at the end of fear, oblivion.




I worked with a military base in Texas where a significant portion of their energy budget was due to their ability to predict periods like this with insanely high demand, and then run the large base generators for a couple hours to reduce base demand significantly since their rates are dependent on usage during times of peak demand. So if the utility treats them as a client with a peak demand of a few hundred kVA rather than a dozen MVA, that's hundreds of thousands of dollars saved for the base energy manager.

So what I'm saying is

nationalize the goddamn energy industry thxu

Orvin
Sep 9, 2006





Fun fact, “public appeals” to conserve energy like that are usually pretty far into emergency procedures. The next steps are usually voltage reduction, and cutting non-firm demand (usually special rate large energy customers), then finally starting the rolling blackouts.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

lol if they think anyone is going to let their house heat up to save someone else money

That’s a sucker move. If they turn the thermostat up and there’s a blackout anyway, the house will reach sweltering temperatures more quickly than if it started at a cool & comfortable temperature..

Killer-of-Lawyers
Apr 22, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Let it go to waste as we don't have any way to store it .

Overcapacity only helps to a certain extent. The more overcapacity you have the less economic it is to install another panel.

Until we have grid storage that is worth a drat it doesn't help much.

Actually, I can think of something we could do to store the energy from over capacity easy. Make gasoline with it.

Massive overcapacity of power generation is something we need, no matter if we go with solar, wind, nuclear, or whatever your green power source of choice is. (I think in 2050 we can get the microwave power station and as long as we keep disasters off it would be great.)

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

There are like a billion good uses for excess energy

Killer-of-Lawyers
Apr 22, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020
I mean, I know it's a sci fi cliche and all, but energy is really the limiting factor on anything you'd want to do. Want to run chemical plants to pull CO2 out of the air? You need energy.

Run lines to bulldozers and cranes and build your wind turbines during peak solar output, and massively cut the carbon cost of each turbine by probably 80%.

The problem is we have a high energy society that hasn't been paying the full cost of our energy use because we use sources who's bad externalities fall well into someone elses or the future's problem. If were going to beat climate change then we'll have to change that, and that means providing society with A LOT of green electrical energy.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Killer-of-Lawyers posted:

Actually, I can think of something we could do to store the energy from over capacity easy. Make gasoline with it.

Massive overcapacity of power generation is something we need, no matter if we go with solar, wind, nuclear, or whatever your green power source of choice is. (I think in 2050 we can get the microwave power station and as long as we keep disasters off it would be great.)

Nah man, Microwave Power happens 2020 +/- 10 years in game and Fusion Power happens 2050 +/- 10 years.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Clearly the best option is to make giant hill covered with water tiles for hydroelectric during map generation.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

QuarkJets posted:

There are like a billion good uses for excess energy

It would be interesting to run desalination plants with excess solar, then use that water in reforestation programs, especially where desertification is a significant issue. It would be a much better use of bullshit oil money then funding Silicon Valley.

Killer-of-Lawyers
Apr 22, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020
Massive desalination to irrigate the outback to grow eucalyptus trees is one of the ideas that got floated around for reversing climate change.

I suppose it comes down to how much it costs to industrially take the CO2 out vs desalinating and pumping water into aird land.


BrandorKP posted:

Clearly the best option is to make giant hill covered with water tiles for hydroelectric during map generation.

I mean, you can always just put your industry in a corner of the map so it's not simulated.

Hmm.

I may have fallen for the very same trap in Sim City as Humanity did.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Killer-of-Lawyers posted:

I mean, you can always just put your industry in a corner of the map so it's not simulated.

Hmm.

I may have fallen for the very same trap in Sim City as Humanity did.

This is funny. drat. That's almost better than "fever" climate change analogy.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Killer-of-Lawyers posted:

Massive desalination to irrigate the outback to grow eucalyptus trees is one of the ideas that got floated around for reversing climate change.

I suppose it comes down to how much it costs to industrially take the CO2 out vs desalinating and pumping water into aird land.


I mean, you can always just put your industry in a corner of the map so it's not simulated.

Hmm.

I may have fallen for the very same trap in Sim City as Humanity did.

I spent nearly a year in AmeriCorps helping to run a native plant nursery and restore salmon stream habitat in the PNW and if folks actually give a gently caress it’s a model that can work. Our main nursery was maybe 2-3 acres and we had several municipal sites from which we were able to periodically harvest stuff like willow.

It worked year around because the times we weren’t planting we were tending other sites and it’s easier when you are literally planting acres and acres of plants just to fill space. Things get even easier if you pick a tree species that propagates trivially, like the way quaking aspen does.

Killer-of-Lawyers
Apr 22, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020
Yeah, reforestation efforts can do a lot. We'd need some of the major powers to buy in, but we could sell it as a jobs program in that respect.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

Farmer Crack-rear end posted:

Use the overcapacity to produce liquid fuels, use fuels to run peaker/overnight plants, boom there's your grid storage.

This, 100 percent. I read about a pilot project to crack hydrogen when there was spare electricity, and then run a fuel cell with it when more power was needed. Unfortunately, it got defunded.

You could do other things with otherwise excess electricity, too. Like provide energy to projects like this?

OK, a question: when it comes to Grid storage, has anybody tried flywheels

like, really big flywheels

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Nebakenezzer posted:

OK, a question: when it comes to Grid storage, has anybody tried flywheels

like, really big flywheels

I cannot wait for the results of that failure mode.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

CommieGIR posted:

I cannot wait for the results of that failure mode.

what if grapeshot but real big

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

CommieGIR posted:

I cannot wait for the results of that failure mode.

They’re also used in race cars.

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

CommieGIR posted:

I cannot wait for the results of that failure mode.

listen

all it is is a cylinder, the size and mass of a ship, spinning at supersonic speeds in a vacuum pressure vessel

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Acceleration with a fly wheel would be why I'd think.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.
Environmentalists in Germany are literally insane.

Another article on how good intentions aren't actually helping:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...t/#1ec0477c8e48

quote:

Despite much hype, Germany still generates just 35% of its electricity from renewables. And if biomass burning, often dirtier than coal, is excluded, wind, water and solar electricity in Germany accounted for just 27% of electricity generation in 2018.

But McKinsey issues its strongest warning when it comes to Germany's increasingly insecure energy supply due to its heavy reliance on intermittent solar and wind. For three days in June 2019, the electricity grid came close to black-outs.

"Only short-term imports from neighboring countries were able to stabilize the grid," the consultancy notes.

As a result of Germany's energy supply shortage, the highest observed cost of short-term "balancing energy" skyrocketed from €64 in 2017 to €37,856 in 2019.

...

In June, Germany imported more electricity than it exported, and by 2023, Germany will become a net electricity importer, McKinsey predicted.

The growing insecurity of German energy supply is made worse by the fact that its neighbors Belgium and Netherlands may shut down baseload capacity: coal plants in the Netherlands and nuclear plants in Belgium.

As such, McKinsey worries that Germany may not be able to meet demand with imports. "In the medium term, there is a risk that there will not be enough supply capacity in the entire European network."

That could happen as soon as five years from now. "Without adequate expansion, the first bottlenecks could occur as early as the middle of the next decade, and they will continue to worsen until 2030."

If Germany continues to phase out both coal and nuclear, Germany will lose "the equivalent of 43% of total secured output in 2018."

To stabilize the electricity grid and avoid becoming too dependent on imported natural gas, Germany is expanding coal mining to the Hambach forest, where environmental activists were arrested last September.

Meanwhile, local communities and environmentalist have successfully blocked the building of transmission lines from the windy north to the industrial south.

"By the first quarter of 2019, just 1,087 kilometers of the planned 3,600 kilometers of power lines were completed." At that rate, McKinsey notes, "the 2020 target will not be reached until 2037. "

What the gently caress, Greens?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Solkanar512 posted:

They’re also used in race cars.

They are used in most engines. And yeah, the Hybrids have speciality flywheels.

They love storing energy and then, when a mechanical failure happens, escaping.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

Phanatic posted:


Meanwhile, local communities and environmentalist have successfully blocked the building of transmission lines from the windy north to the industrial south.

why?

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Phanatic posted:

Environmentalists in Germany are literally insane.

Another article on how good intentions aren't actually helping:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...t/#1ec0477c8e48


What the gently caress, Greens?

German environmentalists seem to have some pretty hosed up priorities. Frankly they seem indistinguishable from the coal lobbyists at times.

Killer-of-Lawyers
Apr 22, 2008

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020
Remember there are a lot of village type environmentalists, who want us to go to a pastoral lifestyle of small 5k or so villages that we navigate with bicycles. Of course, this would involve the death of a lot of the population to make it work, but that usually doesn't come up with them.

But given that local communities also were involved, it's probably just NIMBY. Power Lines are ugly and bring down property values.

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Killer-of-Lawyers posted:

Of course, this would involve the death of a lot of the population to make it work...

Germans love tradition.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005


https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/25/world/europe/germans-balk-at-plan-for-wind-power-lines.html

quote:

But citizens living in the areas proposed for the half-mile-wide transmission lines say they worry that the magnetic fields from the lines could harm their health. (So far, most scientific studies have not found a significant threat. In 2006, the World Health Organization said static electric and magnetic fields had no adverse health impact, but public fears persist.)

More acutely, they worry about the effect on the value of their property.

“For the general public, the fear is a little bit irrational,” said Philipp Gerbert, who works for the Boston Consulting Group, which provides information on energy for its clients. “But for those particular individuals actually affected, the presence of a transmission line means the value of their property goes down.”

Standard FYGM mentality. "This will effect me personally so I'm going to stoke irrational fears in the populace at large in order benefit me."

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

CommieGIR posted:

They are used in most engines. And yeah, the Hybrids have speciality flywheels.

They love storing energy and then, when a mechanical failure happens, escaping.

I swear there was a discussion a while ago about just this concept, putting spinning death wheels in every basement to serve the dual purpose of energy storage and stochastic population control

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Nebakenezzer posted:

OK, a question: when it comes to Grid storage, has anybody tried flywheels

like, really big flywheels

yes, they've been doing frequency regulation in nyiso since 2009ish

there were no follow up orders and the company went silent for a few years and then got "acquired", so I don't think it went well

https://beaconpower.com/modular-design/

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Phanatic posted:

Environmentalists in Germany are literally insane.

Another article on how good intentions aren't actually helping:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...t/#1ec0477c8e48


What the gently caress, Greens?

I'm repeating this for the nth time but German environmentalists are a mix of
* NIMBYs
* People who read a sad facebook post about some environmental disaster killing animals so now they get angry at people in general
* People who used to think of themselves as free and alternative but now work for an insurance company and have a house to get all NIMBY about
* People who think we can live off the land in harmony with nature, without chemicals and plastics and visible structures larger than a single family home (driving 3 SUVs is ok though because one of them is a hybrid)
* People who are real conservative but think of the view from their hillside home as part of the national heritage which they get all NIMBY about
* People who are scared of electrons and bad magnetic vibrations now that Germany has banned the atoms and genes they used to be scared of
* Have I mentioned NIMBYs

There are reality based environmentalists in local and national conservation organisations but these groups have largely focused on protecting specific species and habitats from clearly identifiable threats. They have no clue about how to make a practical plan for stopping climate change, much less how to restructure society to maintain acceptable living standards and large scale functioning ecosystems at the same time, and in some cases see climate change as a distraction from more immediate issues.

suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Sep 8, 2019

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Phanatic posted:

Environmentalists in Germany are literally insane.

Another article on how good intentions aren't actually helping:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...t/#1ec0477c8e48


What the gently caress, Greens?

A reminder that Germany is the country that shut down their entire nuclear grid as a reaction to Fukushima, and as you can see they still haven't recovered.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
yea we definitely need a reminder of that every 15 or 20 posts

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

StabbinHobo posted:

yea we definitely need a reminder of that every 15 or 20 posts

It bears repeating because even if we assume that 100% renewables on the back of a simultaneous nuclear and coal shutdown could be made to work for Germany, German greens are such an incompetent mess they'll torpedo their own attempt to save the planet over property values and unwillingness to do large scale planning.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





StabbinHobo posted:

yea we definitely need a reminder of that every 15 or 20 posts

Lol go away

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Taffer
Oct 15, 2010


StabbinHobo posted:

yea we definitely need a reminder of that every 15 or 20 posts

Actual we do, because people like you keep coming into the thread making the same stupid anti-nuclear arguments that they do.

People like you are literally the reason we can't combat climate change. We've had all the solutions for decades, we just can't use them because morons keep loving it up over irrational fears that they refuse let go of when shown proof that they're baseless.

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