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STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

That number feels high. Like it assumes Nicole has a 50/50 chance at F2. Which I question.

I personally don't like Cliff. I mean, I don't hate him or anything. But he's played a fairly slimy game and been kind of an accomplice to too much of the terrible behavior. I suppose I'd prefer him winning to Jackson, Holly, or Tommy but I don't think I'll get any catharsis from it. But I can appreciate that a lot of people like Cliff more than me.

What I really dread is the Jackson/Holly win where everyone has spent half the summer convincing themselves those two are lesser evils and better players because of how much they hated Christie/Tommy. And then the inevitable return for next season's watermelon themed POV.

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Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I liked Swaggy C.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Ugh, the long reign of terror of Michie continues.

This season is so, so bad.

^burtle
Jul 17, 2001

God of Boomin'



I'm still here because I love my wife. At this point whoever is sitting next to Jackson will win purely based on the now standard bitter jury.

Yer Burnt
Feb 26, 2007

This season's endgame is annoying because the power couple continue to rule and extend their miserable HoHneymoon phase, but it's not so bad compared to recent seasons. Every member of the Top 5 has performed well at comps or won when they had to, so there's no obvious Victoria goat to bring to the final. Everyone is mostly aware of their position within the game dynamics.

I've been enjoying Tommy's existential crisis as he slowly loses all his friends and now he has only the Diary Room to confide in. Nicole had a totally favorable edit with a rare "Who wants to see my HoH basket?" segment and we all were happy for her. Cliff continues to make game moves out of fear but he's still a nice guy. Holly is there. Michie is still a douchebag, but he's reeled it in a lot since receiving that feedback. He very well may win and that would be terrible, but oh well.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't think Jackson actually has to worry about a bitter jury. Nick loved him. Jack was begging his forgiveness when he left. Christie saw him as her rival and equal and I think would rather elevate him to elevate herself than drag him down. Cliff, Tommy, and Nicole both like him. Holly goes back to him no matter how badly he treats her. Even Kat was apologizing on his behalf when she left and trying to turn the other cheek. Jess and Ana left mad at him but they're both just as likely to have forgotten he existed by now as they are to be holding a grudge.

The jury is made up of people who either consistently were desperate to only play with the other cool kids or people really forgiving of being ostracized and screwed over by the cool kids. So I think if any of Jackson, Tommy, or Holly make the F2 its theoretically their game to lose.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I would be very surprised if Jackson doesn't win at this point. He is the biggest comp threat, so even if they manage to put him on the block next week, I feel like he has a good chance of taking himself off.

Best case scenario for me is Nicole wins POV, takes Cliff off, and Jackson has to put up Holly. Then they eliminate Holly. At least it would be interesting.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011
I think the only remaining person that Jackson beats is Holly. I agree that he has the best resume but he's just such a douch. I can easily see Jess/Christie/Sis hating him and getting themselves all worked up against him in jury.

Maybe if Holly goes this week and he has an advocate in Jury he has a chance, but otherwise I don't see it

Juries always talk about voting for the best player but they always choose the person they like better and just rationalize it later

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The thing is, they like Jackson. This cast doesn't seem him as a douche. They've spent the whole season making apologies on his behalf and rationalizing things.

This cast is REALLY good at self delusion and passing the blame. They've convinced themselves that this is one of the best and nicely played seasons ever. They actually managed to convince themselves the Field Trip might not have been as negative as it seemed. You want to know something crazy? A few weeks back they noted that Jack, Analyse, and Nick all got really muted crowd responses and only Kat got a big one and instead of assuming the obvious thing they actually convinced themselves that there must have been some kind of terrible national tragedy that has made everyone somber.

Jackson's ironically the only person truly prepared for the negativity that they're going to face coming out of that house and even he doesn't actually think any of its deserved and just thinks the show and players have lied about him and portrayed him in a negative light. Remember that fight with Holly a few episodes back? They manipulated that. It wasn't actually about the whatever thing they claimed it was about, it was about Jackson being a prick, Holly calling him a "loving rear end in a top hat", and Jackson getting FURIOUS that she was attacking his character in front of the cameras.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Twin Cinema posted:

Best case scenario for me is Nicole wins POV, takes Cliff off, and Jackson has to put up Holly. Then they eliminate Holly. At least it would be interesting.

Well, the first part happened!

It feels like the right move would be to eliminate Holly, because Jackson can’t play in the HOH next week. On the other hand, you poison that relationship, possibly costing yourself votes at the end. And if Tommy wins, he’d still probably want to break up the last duo.

Exodor
Oct 1, 2004

Twin Cinema posted:

if Tommy wins, he’d still probably want to break up the last duo.

If they keep Holly they know they're the targets next week. If they keep Tommy and he wins HoH there's at least a chance he targets Jackson.

My only concern is Cliff's stupid loyalty to Jackson keeps him from doing the right thing.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Exodor posted:

If they keep Holly they know they're the targets next week. If they keep Tommy and he wins HoH there's at least a chance he targets Jackson.

My only concern is Cliff's stupid loyalty to Jackson keeps him from doing the right thing.

You are correct. Jackson has the biggest target on his back heading into next week, as not only does he have a good enough resume to beat anyone remaining (and the jury support, as STAC has mentioned), but he's also the biggest threat to win the final competition to go to the end.

Plus, if I was Tommy, I'd take my chances going against Cliff & Nicole in the final competition, rather than trying to face Jackson.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Whoops. Accidental footage of a live handshake deal to kill the drama.

UmOk
Aug 3, 2003
What a pack of absolute morons

Heiji
Jun 9, 2007

UmOk posted:

What a pack of absolute morons

It’s really not that bad. It’s pretty close since if they keep Tommy there’s some chance he wins veto and boots one of them, and Jackson Tommy X is a hopeless for the remainder. Also a Tommy Nicole Cliff F3 is really down who wins final HoH.

The benefit of keeping Holly is if they win veto they get to keep Holly in the F3 and they might feel they have legitimate winning chances against her. So you’re potentially making F4 worse to make the good F3 better, and it’s not guaranteed that F4 is that much worse. Heck, if the remaining person wins final HoH and boots Jackson who knows what happens.

It’s honestly a very close decision and probably doesn’t matter much in the end except who ends up winning in the situations where they don’t win their necessary competitions.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
I had a feeling in my gut that if Tommy stayed, he was going to win. He knows the days and would be good in both the physical final HOH and decent in the “houseguest said” part 2. And the jury would have just eaten his poo poo up if he's at final 2. Now Cliff and Nicole either sit against each other or a less beloved Jackson/Holly.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I don't think there's a true "right" decision in Tommy vs Holly. Yes, taking out the showmance and someone who has won a bunch of comps is a good idea. But also taking out a guy who has won a bunch of comps, is good with days and faces, and has great relationships with the jury is a good idea. Nicole and Cliff have been in a lovely underdog position all season and that didn't change just because they had the power for the first time. They just had to decide which pair of tough people to beat who had spent all season working together and lying to them they wanted to try and beat at F4 in comps they couldn't even predict. I mean, when has the F4 HOH been an endurance?

I think they should have taken out Holly but a lot of people disagree and I see those arguments. But I think Nicole NEEDED to take out Holly and own this move to have any chance of winning. Everyone knowing she wanted to make the move and some combination of Cliff/Jackson/Holly talking her out of it hurts her a lot in a theoretical F2.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
Yeah, Jackson comes out of this looking like a boss. There’s no way he can sit at final 2.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Teek posted:

Yeah, Jackson comes out of this looking like a boss. There’s no way he can sit at final 2.

Unless the veto is another puzzle, I don’t see how he doesn’t make it o final 2. He is probably winning veto, and parts 1 and 3 of the final HoH competition.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
Veto might be the “build this thing” using the days puzzle comp thing. I think the days are said to be a weakness for him, he could brute force it though. Hopefully it won’t be the domino or road comp, those are usually pretty lame.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

I hate Jackson but I think he played that information he overheard extremely well.

RenegadeStyle1
Jun 7, 2005

Baby Come Back
Jackson's plan was the best move he could have made and probably one of the best moves I've seen in big brither.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I missed last night’s episode because I was sick, but my wife filled me in. After last night, Jackson deserves to win. I don’t want it to happen, but Cliff & Nicole have just been playing in the shadow of whoever’s in Power all game. I like them both a lot, but...man.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The show lied. Cliff and Nicole were already agreeing to evict Tommy Wednesday night before Jackson pulled that stunt. Jackson's lies actually blew up in his face, pissed Nicole off, and made them reconsider voting out Holly. As of Wednesday night/Thursday morning after the lie Nicole and Cliff thought Jackson was probably lying and didn't trust anyone but decided to just vote out Tommy because he was the bigger threat.

Jackson threw like 6 different bad ideas out Wednesday night and it created chaos and confusion. You can commend him for that if you wish. It certainly contributed to Nicole and Cliff's mental and emotional exhaustion and complete confusion. But Jackson didn't pull off some clever lie that puppetmastered people.

Jackson is gonna be the single most overrated winner in BB history. He's a loving idiot and he's been bailed out by someone else time and time again.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 22:30 on Sep 13, 2019

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I can only go by the episode!!

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I know. And Tommy doesn't know what happened, he understandably thinks Jackson's lie flipped things. And unfortunately Sunday's show will probably advance the growing narrative that Jackson flipped the vote with a clever lie.

Its just not true. Both BB and its fans are crafting a narrative to justify Jackson's seemingly likely BB21 win and make us forget that not only is he a terrible human being but that he actually has played a really bad game that included him blowing up his entire alliance, exposing his girlfriend's secret alliance, and being misted by his own target and "white whale" into keeping her amongst a million other dumb moves.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe
2 questions:

Would it have been better for Nicole and Cliff to split their votes, forcing Jackson to vote out Tommy and putting that blood on his hands?

Does Cliff think he could win over Jackson if they're the final 2?

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

STAC Goat posted:

Yeah, I know. And Tommy doesn't know what happened, he understandably thinks Jackson's lie flipped things. And unfortunately Sunday's show will probably advance the growing narrative that Jackson flipped the vote with a clever lie.

Its just not true. Both BB and its fans are crafting a narrative to justify Jackson's seemingly likely BB21 win and make us forget that not only is he a terrible human being but that he actually has played a really bad game that included him blowing up his entire alliance, exposing his girlfriend's secret alliance, and being misted by his own target and "white whale" into keeping her amongst a million other dumb moves.

I do appreciate what you bring to the thread, I was just joking. I was re-iterating second-hand information from an episode I didn't watch.

I do feel like the show has scrubbed away the negatives of Jackson, and presented him in a good light, especially since him and Holly broke away from the 6.

Jackson has played a bad game. But has anyone played a particularly good game this season? It feels like they entire house has been a dumpster fire gamewise.

vincentpricesboner
Sep 3, 2006

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I disagree with the whole Jackson playing a bad game. He has been the best competitor in the competitions and even with some sub par moves has done well enough in the house otherwise. Not a lot of other power players so right now he is looking like the most influential or powerful player, especially with Christie not making it far. I know we all hate Jackson because of how he has come across as a bad person, but I think most of the jury will actually vote that he was a good player.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Jackson's unquestionably a good competitor. He's also got a knack at just throwing poo poo at the wall and creating chaos and confusion. That's definitely an effective game skill sometimes. But like. he's an idiot and he should have been out pre-jury. He didn't win a comp or throw some lie out, Holly bailed him out. Then Jess bailed him out. Then Tommy bailed him out. Then he and Holly won back-to-back-to-back HOHs. Jackson's only even ever been vulnerable once in the last month, during the DE. And a lot of people think Nicole screwed up not taking the shot when it was available. If he wins that was probably the moment we look back on (unless they stupidly bring him forward to F3 or 2). And Nicole didn't do that because she trusted Jackson, it was because she saw Christie as more threatening (which is tough to argue).

But he will win if he reaches the end. And I'm a big believer that if you win you deserved it because you beat your competitors. Its just that the narrative is going to sell this idea that Jackson was some kind of clever scoundrel who pulled off this miraculous vote flip with a lie out of nowhere. And that didn't happen. He's the guy who exploded his game and an entire alliance's with stupidity, let Christie mist him into saving her when she was his target, and very nearly got his showmance voted out with an inflammatory lie.

Binary Logic posted:

2 questions:

Would it have been better for Nicole and Cliff to split their votes, forcing Jackson to vote out Tommy and putting that blood on his hands?

I don't think that would have accomplished anything. Its not like Tommy would have expected Jackson to vote out Holly or have a valid reason to be mad he didn't. Cliff could have done it to save face with Jackson but that would have just been screwing over Nicole.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

In a season where there were good players, I don't think Jackson would have stuck around as long as he did, but this season has had so many passive players that he's stuck around long enough to be nearly impossible to get rid of.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

STAC Goat posted:

Jackson's unquestionably a good competitor. He's also got a knack at just throwing poo poo at the wall and creating chaos and confusion. That's definitely an effective game skill sometimes. But like. he's an idiot and he should have been out pre-jury. He didn't win a comp or throw some lie out, Holly bailed him out. Then Jess bailed him out. Then Tommy bailed him out. Then he and Holly won back-to-back-to-back HOHs. Jackson's only even ever been vulnerable once in the last month, during the DE. And a lot of people think Nicole screwed up not taking the shot when it was available. If he wins that was probably the moment we look back on (unless they stupidly bring him forward to F3 or 2). And Nicole didn't do that because she trusted Jackson, it was because she saw Christie as more threatening (which is tough to argue).

But he will win if he reaches the end. And I'm a big believer that if you win you deserved it because you beat your competitors. Its just that the narrative is going to sell this idea that Jackson was some kind of clever scoundrel who pulled off this miraculous vote flip with a lie out of nowhere. And that didn't happen. He's the guy who exploded his game and an entire alliance's with stupidity, let Christie mist him into saving her when she was his target, and very nearly got his showmance voted out with an inflammatory lie.


With all that said, looking back to the beginning Jackson would be an appropriate winner for this season's theme of terrible people grouping into high-schoolish cliques.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Ugh, Jackson is insufferable from the opening credits. Gonna be a tough episode to finish.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
And even bigger ugh.

Snowmankilla
Dec 6, 2000

True, true

Where’s Momma when you need her?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I'm actually surprised that they (a) showed the hilarious cry for his mommy and (b) showed that Jackson's lie actually flipped the vote TO evicting Holly at first. I didn't think they'd be that honest about their likely winner. But I guess the "mommy" thing might counter the "lying sociopath" thing a bit.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Has this season had more people listening in to a room's conversation than other seasons? Or is it just because it gets to TV more this year.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Its definitely been a thing with this crew. I mean, there's always some of that in the BB house but Gr8ful was really into it and were always convinced other people were doing it to them. They spent a lot of time busting doors open to try and catch people. They were a paranoid and projecting bunch. They also had a bunch of loud fights behind closed doors.

Some of it was also probably the house design as there were more closed doors than usual and a whole extra room. The downstairs has one open bedroom with 2 closed attached to it. Normally one of those is Have Not and the open one is filled. This year Have Nots was upstairs next to HOH so no one really used the open bedroom. So it became easier to listen in the bedroom or upstairs hallway at a closed door and not get caught.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Clff & Nicole with some real good strategy here. Stellar work.

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Aardvark Barber
Sep 7, 2007

Delivery in less than two minutes or your money back!


gently caress. gently caress.

Seriously hate michie. What an rear end.

"I'll never turn my back on you" <- what a loving lie, apparently breaking up with someone is not turning your back on them

And cliff is the biggest idiot for believing michie - just ended his own game.

Aardvark Barber fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Sep 19, 2019

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