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KingNastidon posted:Repeatedly stated the primary value in doing so is what-if sensitivity analysis. You could say that pollsters "made up the numbers" when selecting their original sample splits. Everyone is guessing at this point because the future can't be known.
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Sep 23, 2019 17:20
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Unoriginal Name posted:Yang is a tech bro dumbfuck taking "disruption" to vital national services. His ideas are, at best, half baked and exploitable by bad actors On this note, while we are dissecting his policies and what they how about his goals and how he sees the world, I’d point at his tort reform policy as instructive. It’s the usual regurgitated conservative business owner propaganda stuff about frivolous lawsuits. He didn’t come to that policy from conversation with any normal working class people who have had issues with civil suits, because it doesn’t touch on any of the ways the system typically fails those people or provides avenues for abusive litigation that they actually need to worry about. He also didn’t come to it after conversation with any lawyers, who presumably would have told him that his bold new idea to let judges dismiss frivolous lawsuits is how the system already works and pointed him to well studied problems like judicial elections. It’s the coming from the conventional privileged perspective that there’s a lot to fear from bullshit lawsuits, fed by the belief that products liability, premise liability, discrimination suits, and maybe med mal suits are generally bullshit.
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Sep 23, 2019 17:23
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kidkissinger posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/06/06/trumps-claim-that-elizabeth-warren-made-a-quick-killing-in-foreclosures/ I don't know how I feel about her charging her family interest rates. Doesn't that make her basically a commercial bank at that point? Main Paineframe posted:Well, keep in mind that the details of ongoing negotiations are usually private, so the media doesn't usually get much insight into them. The Sanders campaign "labor strife" story was anonymously leaked to the Washington Post. Unless someone inside the Warren campaign union starts dumping documents to reporters, we likely won't hear anything about it until a contract is signed. See, this is why I asked if it's possible to get a fair shake. Warren's campaign is a black box that can't be investigated but Bernie's campaign is a wide open book that everybody gets to poke around in. I'm just wondering if it's even feasible for there to be some good journalism and analysis of things that aren't colored by one candidate or another. I just want to make up my mind between the two since I have pretty strong disqualifiers for the other candidates on the Democrat side.
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Sep 23, 2019 17:30
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https://twitter.com/_michaelbrooks/status/1176165347952594944
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Sep 23, 2019 17:30
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redneck nazgul posted:I don't know how I feel about her charging her family interest rates. Doesn't that make her basically a commercial bank at that point? The reason I strongly support Bernie over Warren is because of foreign policy. Foreign policy is where the president has the greatest unilateral power to do what they want. In 2012 Warren's platform included support of Israel. In 2014 she defended Israel's targeting of schools and hospitals. In 2015 she signed an AIPAC letter asking Obama to withhold Palestinian Authority aid if they continued their plan to seek UN recognition. In 2016 she signed an AIPAC letter attacking Obama's decision to abstain on the UN security council vote calling for the end of settlements. In 2017 she voted for Trump's military budget and additional sanctions on Iran. In 2019 she use the anti-Palestinian dogwhistle demographic threat when discussing the two state solution. Bernie is less than ideal in many ways. If I had to vote between Bernie and Corbyn, Bernie and Lula, etc. I'd vote the other person. But between Bernie and Warren, the only way one can pick Warren is if they think Palestinians are less than human.
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Sep 23, 2019 17:42
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twodot posted:If you want to write political fan fiction you can just do that instead of pretending that multiplying polls by made up numbers is doing real analysis. look, we're statisticians. we are paid very good money to tell our bosses that if you feed us garbage data, we can do some kind of sorcery to it to make it into good data it doesn't work, but paying another statistician to check our work costs money, sooo trust us, why would we lie
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Sep 23, 2019 17:48
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:look, we're statisticians. we are paid very good money to tell our bosses that if you feed us garbage data, we can do some kind of sorcery to it to make it into good data data science.txt
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Sep 23, 2019 18:03
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Why haven't I seen this before, it was excellent! and it's made by The Hill  Thanks for posting it.
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Sep 23, 2019 18:20
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have you seen my baby posted:data science.txt we can occasionally find very cool poo poo in good data that previous methods could not. data science is not, at its core, an exercise in horseshit. but as Nate "Any Day Now Amy Klobuchar Is Going To Catch Fire" Silver can tell you, it is never a long way from point A to point B in the predicting the future business.
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Sep 23, 2019 18:28
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Why haven't I seen this before, it was excellent! and it's made by The Hill I’m glad I watched it; I almost didn’t since it’s from The Hill. That was the best summary I’ve heard. In re:Nate silver... I don’t mind half of what he does, my only issue is that he tends to act like his knowledge of statistics gives him any insight into human behaviour and I can’t agree with that. This isn’t to say statistics can’t inform tendencies or whatever, just that I think it has failed to give any to him.
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Sep 23, 2019 18:37
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Why haven't I seen this before, it was excellent! and it's made by The Hill Well, it was just from this morning! But Krystal Ball is a legit good leftist journalist.
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Sep 23, 2019 18:41
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On the previous page I posted a hasty, snarky response about Warren flipping houses before I did my due diligence. Apparently the actions were pretty above board and a cursory investigation didn't turn up anything fishy. I retract my assertion and am appropriately castigated.
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Sep 23, 2019 18:52
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Remember how everyone said that they would love to have a beer with Bush? Warren remembers. https://mobile.twitter.com/ewarren/status/1155515626527612928
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Sep 23, 2019 18:56
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Luckyellow posted:Remember how everyone said that they would love to have a beer with Bush? Meet and greet Mayor Pete, Pizza with Pete!
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Sep 23, 2019 18:57
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Luckyellow posted:Remember how everyone said that they would love to have a beer with Bush? Beto will do it for free and may refuse to leave afterward
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Sep 23, 2019 18:58
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Glad I watched this. The fact that her name is Krystal Ball is hilarious. I actually like Warren, but I'm really concerned because it'll be easy for the opposition to label her as Clinton 2.0. It doesn't matter that Trump lies about her constantly and it doesn't matter that Trump is actually guilty of the things he accuses others of doing. Trump is going to continue to call her Pocahontas and that will be effective, that will be the big lie she built her entire career from, etc. Trump has so many lies that none of them seem as bad is one big lie. Stupid people will also again think that "no way all of these bad things are accurate, maybe the media is trying to make him look bad after all," and no negative stories have a significant impact.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:07
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Luckyellow posted:Remember how everyone said that they would love to have a beer with Bush? "Everyone wants to have a beer with me, and instead of having a beer with them, I tell them to give me money for the small chance of getting a beer with me" hell yeah
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Sep 23, 2019 19:08
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Krystal Ball or Reality Winner: Best name award.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:11
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HootTheOwl posted:Krystal Ball or Reality Winner: Best name award. I’ll have to look into my former to see which is the latter.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:13
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HootTheOwl posted:Krystal Ball or Reality Winner: Best name award. It wasn't until several months ago that I realized Reality Winner was actually her name and not just some codename the press had glommed on to.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:17
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Jethro posted:It wasn't until several months ago that I realized Reality Winner was actually her name and not just some codename the press had glommed on to. I was tipped off by the fact that Reality Winner is too stupid to be a nickname. Therefore it had to be real.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:29
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Crows Turn Off posted:Glad I watched this. The fact that her name is Krystal Ball is hilarious. The thing about Warren is that she's exactly what the right accused Clinton of being, even through Clinton was basically Bush2.0 v2.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:48
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Jethro posted:It wasn't until several months ago that I realized Reality Winner was actually her name and not just some codename the press had glommed on to. She had her named changed, it's not actually her given name.
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Sep 23, 2019 19:49
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I can’t quit you Krystal Ball
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Sep 23, 2019 19:59
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New polling requirements were announced for the November debates https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1176209485121118210
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Sep 23, 2019 20:05
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:look, we're statisticians. we are paid very good money to tell our bosses that if you feed us garbage data, we can do some kind of sorcery to it to make it into good data please do not plagiarize my cover letter
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Sep 23, 2019 20:07
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Civilized Fishbot posted:"Everyone wants to have a beer with me, and instead of having a beer with them, I tell them to give me money for the small chance of getting a beer with me" hell yeah Reminder that these contests are controlled by the campaign and all potential winners pre-screened so as to make sure only the right sort end up winning, when they don't select them outright.
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Sep 23, 2019 20:17
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I like Michael a lot. His poo poo's been very on point lately, and he was also going for this point in his show at some point last week, but this is all just an electability argument.
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Sep 23, 2019 20:23
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I believe basic statistical concepts and data science techniques are sorcery and am also bewildered why single payer and nationalization of medical innovation has not gained as much traction as predicted over past 6+ months
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Sep 23, 2019 20:24
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Chilichimp posted:She had her named changed, it's not actually her given name. It is, actually. Reality Leigh Winner.
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Sep 23, 2019 20:26
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1176193855005306880
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Sep 23, 2019 20:41
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https://twitter.com/WoobieTuesday/status/1176204956023418880
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Sep 23, 2019 20:48
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Great political instincts there Biden. Instead of actually supporting something that's popular not just with your base but the general public, lets waste time and money researching how to convince people it's actually a bad thing!
Seph fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Sep 23, 2019 |
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Sep 23, 2019 20:58
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KingNastidon posted:I believe basic statistical concepts and data science techniques are sorcery and am also bewildered why single payer and nationalization of medical innovation has not gained as much traction as predicted over past 6+ months I like how one poll comes out that's bad for Bernie and all of a sudden this dude is making dozens of posts ITT about how polling is an infallible objective science.
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Sep 23, 2019 20:59
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Them: "Medicare for All is bad, okay." Populace: "Eh, Medicare for All is bad" Us: "Actually, Medicare for All is good!" Populace: "\o/ Medicare for All is good!" repeat
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Sep 23, 2019 20:59
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Seph posted:Great political instincts there Biden. Instead of actually supporting something that's naturally popular, lets waste time and money researching how to convince people it's actually a bad thing! He's thinking about the general. Trump will call his plan socialism anyway, Biden wants to make sure he doesn't accidentally provide it.
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Sep 23, 2019 20:59
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duck season, fire (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2019 21:04
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redneck nazgul posted:I don't necessarily want to jump to that conclusion yet. There's a couple things here. One is the question "Why hasn't the Warren campaign negotiated a contract," and that question is unanswered and might have legitimate or bad reasons. The other is "is the media dishonest in its coverage of Sanders vs Warren" and the answer to that is "absolutely and unequivocally yes." Like others mentioned, Sanders received significant negative coverage for a minor issue that resulted in the renegotiation of an already-existing contract, while there has been zero coverage of Warren's objectively worse situation outside of the initial position coverage of her workers unionizing. Similarly, there has been almost no coverage over her use of unpaid interns, while I can guarantee there would have been if Sanders did that. redneck nazgul posted:See, this is why I asked if it's possible to get a fair shake. Warren's campaign is a black box that can't be investigated but Bernie's campaign is a wide open book that everybody gets to poke around in. I'm just wondering if it's even feasible for there to be some good journalism and analysis of things that aren't colored by one candidate or another. The thing about Warren is that even the most generous evaluation of her, that doesn't condemn her for being a Republican until her 40s or supporting charter schools and trusts her to support MfA, is "a much less reliable Bernie Sanders who has a few policies that are distinctly worse than his (like her free college plan and climate change plan, with the latter being a particularly big deal)." There's not really any concrete argument favoring Warren over Sanders, but there are definitely at least a few favoring him over her, and his history is one that shows he can relied upon to advocate for issues and stay on the right side of said issues (at least to a greater extent than any of the other candidates). joepinetree posted:The reason I strongly support Bernie over Warren is because of foreign policy. Foreign policy is where the president has the greatest unilateral power to do what they want. In 2012 Warren's platform included support of Israel. In 2014 she defended Israel's targeting of schools and hospitals. In 2015 she signed an AIPAC letter asking Obama to withhold Palestinian Authority aid if they continued their plan to seek UN recognition. In 2016 she signed an AIPAC letter attacking Obama's decision to abstain on the UN security council vote calling for the end of settlements. In 2017 she voted for Trump's military budget and additional sanctions on Iran. In 2019 she use the anti-Palestinian dogwhistle demographic threat when discussing the two state solution. Bernie is less than ideal in many ways. If I had to vote between Bernie and Corbyn, Bernie and Lula, etc. I'd vote the other person. But between Bernie and Warren, the only way one can pick Warren is if they think Palestinians are less than human. Didn't Lula end up being more of liberal reformer in office, despite having a more left-wing history? KingNastidon posted:I believe basic statistical concepts and data science techniques are sorcery and am also bewildered why single payer and nationalization of medical innovation has not gained as much traction as predicted over past 6+ months "nationalization of medical innovation" lmao Yeowtch specifically said that data science is an actual thing that you can discover useful information from, but was making the point that it's also very easy to manipulate to achieve the result you (or a client) want. Also anecdotally speaking I know actual statisticians who do not think highly of "data science."
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Sep 23, 2019 21:14
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The Pussy Boss posted:I like how one poll comes out that's bad for Bernie and all of a sudden this dude is making dozens of posts ITT about how polling is an infallible objective science. it is the last refuge of someone who has learned he cannot advocate for what he believes in worth a goddamn: "look, -I- agree, but i'm worried the Baileys might not." and since the phantoms of his imagination cannot be convinced, it is better to wait, and watch, and keep your head down, rather than risk being gunned down by (someone? it was kind of unclear who would be doing the shooting in his fantasies) for saying Elizabeth Warren was a Republican until she was 46. presumably it is the data that have told us this
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Sep 23, 2019 21:18
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Nonsense posted:He's thinking about the general. Trump will call his plan socialism anyway, Biden wants to make sure he doesn't accidentally provide it. ive seen biden talk, i highly doubt hes doing any thinking whatsoever
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Sep 23, 2019 21:26
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