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Solaris 2.0 posted:Speaking of the Iran-Iraq war why was Syria supporting Iran? Didn’t the Iraqies send several divisions to save their rear end in the Yom Kippur war? Saddam Hussein took power to stop a possible union between the iraqi and syrian Ba’ath party because his personal power threatened by this merger so the entire beef between the Iraqi and Syrian Ba’ath was a personal feud between Saddam and Hafez so naturally Hafez sided with Iran against his nemesis and from there the sectarianization started. Anyways, the entire thing about possible Saudi soldiers getting captured is gonna be settled in a couple hours if the houthis put forth evidence. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Sep 29, 2019 |
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Sep 29, 2019 11:22
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https://twitter.com/narrabyee/status/1177991878567956480
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Sep 29, 2019 13:33
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Uh I kinda hope they’re not gonna parade a bunch of corpses around lol, especially if it’s just a bunch of Saudi child soldiers.
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Sep 29, 2019 13:36
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Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, the king's bodyguard was shot dead by a friend. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/bodyguard-saudi-king-reportedly-shot-dead-friend-abdulaziz-al-fagham
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Sep 29, 2019 13:50
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Randarkman posted:It's not that exciting really as far as I can tell, just the normal thing of Israel being a wild card and at the time being more concerned about Iraq than Iran. They sold them arms, supposedly with the consent of the US in the early 80s at least during the time when the Iraqis were still on Iranian territory and were beginning their counterattack. That's atleast what's been disclosed. Israel was also involved in the Iran-Contra Affair, which saw the US selling arms to Iran, in order to get cash to illegally fund Contras in Nicaragua. Its a wild story for anyone that hasn't heard of it.
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Sep 29, 2019 13:55
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The most detailed tweet posted earlier in the thread said that they got a Saudi regiment (plus senior officers), and the three brigades were South Yemen soldiers who were trained by the Saudis. That would certainly explain why they folded so hard - much easier to surrender to your countrymen.
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Sep 29, 2019 14:03
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Darth Walrus posted:The most detailed tweet posted earlier in the thread said that they got a Saudi regiment (plus senior officers), and the three brigades were South Yemen soldiers who were trained by the Saudis. That would certainly explain why they folded so hard - much easier to surrender to your countrymen. That's still a full fuckin' division. That's a devastating defeat. This on top of the attack on the oil field attack, makes me think that dead body guard means the sharks are circling MBS and smelling blood.
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Sep 29, 2019 14:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:That's still a full fuckin' division. That's a devastating defeat. MBS fired the dead bodyguard a month ago. Hard to say who his death was supposed to send a message to.
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Sep 29, 2019 14:14
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Charlz Guybon posted:That's still a full fuckin' division. That's a devastating defeat. Just so we get the definitions out of the way (sorta), the "understood" sizes of military formations are: Company = 200ish Battalion = 1,000 Regiment = 2,000ish Brigade = 5,000 Division = 10,000 Army corps = 30,000 Army = 100,000ish Now: this is mostly based in the wars of the French revolution and Napoleon. For the last 200 years, these expected numbers has in practice changed between countries and even branches of the same military. One countries brigade is not the same as anothers (not even counting wartime and understrenght formations). And that is only valid for (basically) cold war US and Soviet formations et al. In Syria there's been random dudes and his 20 peeps naming themselves Brigade/Division and so on. tl/dr: if the Houthis say they captured 3 Saudi commanded Brigades, it could mean anything. Maybe thousands, maybe 600. If Napoleon says he captured 3 brigades, its abt +-15,000 soldiers.
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Sep 29, 2019 14:54
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Appears to be a video of combat, fair warning https://twitter.com/narrabyee/status/1178297122392875008?s=21 Phil Moscowitz fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Sep 29, 2019 |
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Sep 29, 2019 14:54
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Might want to include a disclaimer that this is a video of active combat, for those who are troubled by such things.
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Sep 29, 2019 15:01
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That looks like 20-40 APCs and trucks in a now abandoned convoy. So that's 1 company accounted for, only 14,500 soldiers left?
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Sep 29, 2019 15:01
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Haystack posted:Might want to include a disclaimer that this is a video of active combat, for those who are troubled by such things. Sorry, edited
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Sep 29, 2019 15:04
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Considering how hosed Saudi Army organization is it wouldnt surprise me if brigades are limited in size just to prevent consolidation of power.
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Sep 29, 2019 15:05
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They probably meant Battalions when they said brigades. 3 battalions and a command regiment would be in the low thousands for troop count
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Sep 29, 2019 15:07
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Those 8 wheeled vehicles might be Canadian LAVs. I hope so anyway.
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Sep 29, 2019 15:09
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Those 8 wheeled vehicles might be Canadian LAVs. I hope so anyway. Thats what they look like. The convoy looks like a mixture of LAV IIIs and MRAPs. The MRAPs look like MaxxPros if I’m not mistaken
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Sep 29, 2019 15:48
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So it’s as I suspected, most of the people captured were Yemenis, I can’t find any uniformed Saudi soldiers in their videos and pictures so I’m going to assume they were few of them. Still, embarrassing.
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Sep 29, 2019 16:17
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Haystack posted:Might want to include a disclaimer that this is a video of active combat, for those who are troubled by such things. From the leisurely way the men close to camera are walking, my interpretation is that the gunshots heard on the video are more likely jubilant shots into the air. My understanding of Middle eastern militia's ammunition consumption based on a number of videos seen over the years is that one third goes into firing into air/at random objects in the horizon when you're approaching the target, one third is fired all over the place when engaged with the enemy, and then the last third is fired into air when the enemy retreats. Remember to fire full automatic with AK-47 without aiming, you may not hit anything but the side that makes the biggest racket usually wins.
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Sep 29, 2019 16:28
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https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1178300001480511491 Looks bad guys Also are those Type-81 rifles? EDIT: Nah just regular AKs
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Sep 29, 2019 18:06
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Throatwarbler posted:https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1178300001480511491 Hmm, naw I think that's a Throatwarbler post. Oh you mean the video.
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Sep 29, 2019 18:07
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How likely is it that the fire in Jeddah and the death of the bodyguard are somehow related to what's going on in Yemen? I see some Twitter accounts very vaugely suggesting some sort of infighting going on within the Saudi government. But it's hard to find any English language sources that get at how credible that might be or anything more specific that "poo poo seems to be hitting the fan."
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Sep 29, 2019 19:23
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AKA Pseudonym posted:How likely is it that the fire in Jeddah and the death of the bodyguard are somehow related to what's going on in Yemen? I see some Twitter accounts very vaugely suggesting some sort of infighting going on within the Saudi government. But it's hard to find any English language sources that get at how credible that might be or anything more specific that "poo poo seems to be hitting the fan." Saudi Arabia is hot and poorly run. Things sometimes catch on fire because there isn't enough reason for them to not catch on fire.
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Sep 29, 2019 19:33
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Also saying that there is infighting in the Saudi government is like saying that the sky is blue. The minor Princes are always at each other's throats and it's almost surprising that MBS has gone this without a major coup or assassination attempt against him yet.
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Sep 29, 2019 19:58
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A prof from a German army university security research institute thingy tweeted that the Saudi government collapsing isn't out of the question, so serious people seem to be thinking that it's possible. This has got to be one of the worst instances of a regime making GBS threads the bed in recent history. Props to the Iranians and Houthis kinda, they are dicks but they sure showed those sheiks.
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Sep 29, 2019 20:03
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Edit: nevermind the video was removed.
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Sep 29, 2019 21:14
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Already gone
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Sep 29, 2019 21:14
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AKA Pseudonym posted:How likely is it that the fire in Jeddah and the death of the bodyguard are somehow related to what's going on in Yemen? I see some Twitter accounts very vaugely suggesting some sort of infighting going on within the Saudi government. But it's hard to find any English language sources that get at how credible that might be or anything more specific that "poo poo seems to be hitting the fan." The King's ex-bodyguard getting shot dead in a random drunk argument is dumb enough to be true but it happening just days after he was sacked is pretty suspicious. The railway fire is probably just a fire, though. On the question of Saudi infighting, I have no doubt at all that various factions within the Saudi royal family are evaluating the increasing weakness of MBS's position and considering whether now is a good time to make a decisive move against him. I fully expect MBS to be either dead, or living in CIA-sponsored exile within the year, tbh.
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Sep 29, 2019 22:12
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Remember when an American equipped and trained army was routed from one of their nation's largest cities by a much smaller irregular force of guys riding technicals?
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Sep 29, 2019 22:22
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Helsing posted:Remember when an American equipped and trained army was routed from one of their nation's largest cities by a much smaller irregular force of guys riding technicals? What happened to the Saudis is far more embarassing. The Saudis have better equipment, an air force, and they lost on open ground where they should theoretically hold an overwhelming advantage. The Iraqis didn't have a real air force at the time of the fall of Mosul, and were operating in urban areas where the local population hated the government.
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Sep 29, 2019 22:32
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A ton of vehicles, prisoners and dead bodies, it gets very NSFL at times. The pictures floating around seem to have been taken from this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DdNiQXjoz0
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Sep 29, 2019 23:13
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Guardian says 500 dead, 2000 captured. No confirmation, but juat as importantly no denial from Saudi Arabia. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/houthis-claim-killed-hundreds-saudi-soldiers-captured-thousands
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Sep 29, 2019 23:17
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Rumor has it that MBS sleeps on a barge in the middle of a lake out of fear of assassination. No idea if it's true but lol that it's extremely believable.
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Sep 29, 2019 23:18
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People are gonna make dien bien phu comparisons with this, but it seems more la rue sans joie than anything else. The book of the same name is a very good read on how technically superior forces get hosed up in harsh local environments through hubris and a weird insistence on convoying through horrible terrain you should never convoy through. https://www.amazon.com/Street-Without-Joy-Indochina-Stackpole-ebook/dp/B07CW4Q8J3 The author, bernard fall is a cool motherfucker who lost two parents to the nazis after they fought in the resistance, who himself joined the resistance, who then went to indochina and wrote the definitive books on french colonial failures. Hell in a Very Small Place is pretty much the definitive book on dien bien phu and good lord is it a read. Fall also died in Vietnam in 67 so he never even scratched the surface of how deep of a quagmire it would eventually become. Decent write up on it here, forcing a convoy through a perfect ambush spot is kind of a timeless military fuckup, but jfc it's one of the few ways you can lose a hugely superior force so consistently. In the French situation they had 10,000 troops get routed by maybe a thousand defenders who took nearly no losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Camargue also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cao_B%E1%BA%B1ng_(1949) E: watching that long video above, good lord yeah it looks like a literal repeat of the French route 1 debacle where a huge french force got bogged down in an area where they had no cover after the lead vehicles in the convoy were taken out and then suffered huge casualties from a bunch of entrenched forces raining down all kinds of fire as they tried to get the convoy moving again. E2: of note, a lot of the captured appear to be non-uniformed militia types and also extremely young, like definitely a lot of teenagers in there. The range that some of the ambush happened at is insanely close and there was literally zero cover for saudi forces either to fight from or to flee towards. I'm curious about the overall timeline because if they attacked the high ground position (that was obviously there to offset the vulnerability of this stretch of road) and the saudis still forced a convoy through that area unprotected then jfc that's so bad. If it was contemporaneous, then that's more of a gamble E3; btw that footage is hella nms, there're a ton of bodies in there Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:23 on Sep 30, 2019 |
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Sep 29, 2019 23:49
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Just saw an ad for MBS on 60 Minutes coming up, sounds like he gets asked point blank if he ordered the murder. Also, does Iraq have a functioning Air Force now?
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Sep 29, 2019 23:54
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Zurakara posted:Rumor has it that MBS sleeps on a barge in the middle of a lake out of fear of assassination. No idea if it's true but lol that it's extremely believable. I bet be becomes the first Saudi prince to die by drowning.
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Sep 30, 2019 00:01
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bradburypancakes posted:Just saw an ad for MBS on 60 Minutes coming up, sounds like he gets asked point blank if he ordered the murder. Yeah more or less, idk if it is extremely capable, but yeah they definitely field an alright airforce. For a lot of the war against ISIS the US was funneling any strike likely to produce a lot of civilian casualties through the iraqi air force.
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Sep 30, 2019 00:01
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Looks like Canada will be able to keep the LAVIII production lines open for a while yet. Those were supposedly for the Saudi national guard and are pretty new, so I would think they would be using Saudi soldiers and not irregulars to crew them(who knows). Yeah not the best area to run a convoy through, but it was in their own territory, right?
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Sep 30, 2019 00:26
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Some of the captured were definitely regular soldiers, looked like they got a bunch of officers, too.
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Sep 30, 2019 00:27
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Looks like Canada will be able to keep the LAVIII production lines open for a while yet. Those were supposedly for the Saudi national guard and are pretty new, so I would think they would be using Saudi soldiers and not irregulars to crew them(who knows). Any "reason" a country gives for supplying lethal aid is always a loving lie. No matter what. Its a blue faced way of telling people that your weapons of war are being used for ~~~peacekeeping~~~. Flat out lies accross the board. -- An LAV or MRAP is made to deflect insurgency heavy weapons . The fact thay they surrendered shows bad generalling and no command and control on the company level. They could have circled wagons essentially and routed the irregular infantry with superior firepower. But they are too focused on getting back to the big saudi shopping mall to give a poo poo about fighting with decency. Morale has been at a near zero level since the houthis won the fighting season. The officers all want to go home.
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