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Polling should always be ignored. [edit] 26 is the atomic number of iron.
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Oct 2, 2019 18:48
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Beefeater1980 posted:Sorry is he saying the clip was edited so that “which is worse, would you say A or B?” “B” is turned into just “would you say A or B”? What about 'Corbyn is electorally pretty middling, and ideally would be replaced by someone younger and equally or more Correct, but realistically yhat's not going to happen until the PLP is largely replaced with younger more Correct people so we're stuck with him for a while longer'?
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Oct 2, 2019 18:48
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every poll that is not an exit poll will always have a political function regardless of whether the people doing the poll realise it or not, even though they almost always do
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Oct 2, 2019 18:49
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https://twitter.com/iresimpsonsfans/status/1179452739484618752
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Oct 2, 2019 18:51
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marktheando posted:Terry Pratchett's thing about boots is the UKMT equivalent of centrist twitter being obsessed with Harry Potter I guess I swear to God, if one more person says "Oh, Pratchett got that from JK Rowling" then I will not be held responsible for my actions.
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Oct 2, 2019 18:51
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Lord Ludikrous posted:I did a thing. Fellow grieving Dad here. The trauma won't go away. It'll likely always be there, it just will get less and less bad. That being said, absolutely planning for the future and more kids is a way to go if you are both comfortable with it. That's what my wife and I are trying now. One bit of advice, which they'll likely tell you in grief counselling. It is important to tell yourselves that having another child isn't because you are trying to replace your lost baby or to get over the trauma. It's is because you and your partner really want a family and want to have a kid of your own. And this is the step on that journey. I know it sounds pedantic but it can be so helpful to just view things like this.
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Oct 2, 2019 18:54
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A wild tweet appears https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1179289978951671808 Marina Hyde still one of the only decent parts of the guardian.
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Oct 2, 2019 18:57
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Bobby Deluxe posted:The other thing to bear in mind with polls about leader popularity is the stunning capacity of the average voter to say things like "Well of course I don't want him in power, but we have to because of this single issue that's been hyped up." WOAH Your new avatar rules
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Oct 2, 2019 18:58
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Ignoring all polling is stupid. You can recognise the flaws in polling without throwing them all out. Without polling you aren't left with much information on what people are thinking about their politicians. Even if you assume that every poll is vastly overestimating the tories and underestimating labour, then I'd want to see some movement in the right direction, which has been very limited recently. No Deal Brexit is still the most popular choice with the loving idiots that are British voters and the tories are promising that.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:02
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marktheando posted:Ignoring all polling is stupid. You can recognise the flaws in polling without throwing them all out. Without polling you aren't left with much information on what people are thinking about their politicians. no its not
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Oct 2, 2019 19:07
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marktheando posted:Ignoring all polling is stupid. You can recognise the flaws in polling without throwing them all out. Without polling you aren't left with much information on what people are thinking about their politicians. Tesseraction posted:Polling for 'right now' should be ignored, not because it's inconvenient, but because we already know that the polling radically shifts if Johnson fucks his "do or die" deadline for the end of the month. As such we should be focusing on forcing him to eat poo poo and receive the extension.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:08
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All you need to know about the accuracy of election polling outside of an election, is that in the most recent round of polling, one pollster has Labour and the Tories tied each with 27%, and another has the Tories 12 points ahead of Labour with 36% and 24% respectively. The previous week it was a split between the Tories being 1% ahead or 15% ahead.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:13
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Even if you don't think all polling forever should be ignored, polling should still be assessed with a fairly cynical eye because there are always biases, problems - deliberate or otherwise - in methodology, respondents who lie, reasons things might change (as Tess says), and if you're looking at media reports rather than the raw data, whatever spin they want to put on it. For my part I think it's a tool that can have some use if you understand the problems with a given poll or set of them, but beyond that the only thing of mild interest is relative movement between the same poll conducted on different dates.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:14
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I have little of use to contribute to the discussion today but would like to mention I have enjoyed hearing the news readers have to say 'island of Ireland' over and over the last day or so
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Oct 2, 2019 19:15
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Dead Goon posted:500 miles. No, now you've hosed it. Those extra 500 miles have over-levelled the boots and now they have to be replaced by Jo Swinson(???) Who said this analogy doesn't hold water?
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Oct 2, 2019 19:18
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Skarsnik posted:I have little of use to contribute to the discussion today but would like to mention I have enjoyed hearing the news readers have to say 'island of Ireland' over and over the last day or so Also known as Ireland, named for the ire we all feel constantly due to our barbarous neighbours across the sea.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:26
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Carborundum posted:Also known as Ireland, named for the ire we all feel constantly due to our barbarous neighbours across the sea. What did the Isle of Man do to piss you off so much?
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Oct 2, 2019 19:27
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Jose posted:no its not poo poo I did misremember. Looking at Lord Ashcroft's most recent polling, its 39% remain, 36% no deal, 15% a 'good' deal. Those still aren't very encouraging numbers. Ms Adequate posted:Even if you don't think all polling forever should be ignored, polling should still be assessed with a fairly cynical eye because there are always biases, problems - deliberate or otherwise - in methodology, respondents who lie, reasons things might change (as Tess says), and if you're looking at media reports rather than the raw data, whatever spin they want to put on it. Yeah the movement is what's mostly interesting to me, and recently it all seems to be really tiny movements and not usually in the right direction. If the electorate were sane, the tories would be bleeding support.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:27
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marktheando posted:Ignoring all polling is stupid. You can recognise the flaws in polling without throwing them all out. Without polling you aren't left with much information on what people are thinking about their politicians. how about we pay attention to the pollsters with a track record of success, like say predicting the last election correctly
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Oct 2, 2019 19:29
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Julio Cruz posted:how about we pay attention to the pollsters with a track record of success, like say predicting the last election correctly Survation were within 1% in 2017. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1177106311554752513?s=20
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Oct 2, 2019 19:34
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RockyB posted:Marina Hyde still one of the only decent parts of the guardian. Isn't she transphobic or is that just Hadley Freeman?
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Oct 2, 2019 19:35
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if you want to listen to polling by a guy called lord ashcroft who just so happened to previously be the deputy chairman of the conservative party and very transparently set up a push polling firm go ahead just don't imply other people are being ridiculous for not doing so
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Oct 2, 2019 19:35
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Guavanaut posted:Voting in national elections sometimes being considered one of those rights, even though voting in the UK isn't really "rights accorded exclusively to its citizens" because, like, Irish citizens exist. And Cypriots. Everyone always forgets about them.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:36
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Julio Cruz posted:how about we pay attention to the pollsters with a track record of success, like say predicting the last election correctly Unfortunately, Survation is as dodgy as most of 'em (and worryingly closely connected to Nigel Farage), while YouGov straight-up slants its results. Actually, come to think of it, how well did Survation do on the EU elections?
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Oct 2, 2019 19:37
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Marina Jekyll and Columnist Hyde does great pieces but also does write articles about how the poof corBIN is too gay to run a country, see her summary of last week and how Labour were in fact, the Idiots
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Oct 2, 2019 19:38
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it's not even just push polling - ashcroft is the only one who does constituency level polling, or as it's called in the rest of the world, polling. all the rest are national polls that ignore regional parties which are nonsense - labour has always had several points locked in scotland for example despite having like three MPs.
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Oct 2, 2019 19:48
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marktheando posted:Survation were within 1% in 2017. Just an ignorant guess, but is the reason why UK polls are notoriously bad because on the phone a voter will tell them their preference in a perfect world where their party is actually viable, but on voting day they go "welp, my guy is dead in the water in my district, time to vote for the least-bad option"
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Oct 2, 2019 20:22
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marktheando posted:Survation were within 1% in 2017. How close were they ~2 months before the election, as opposed to the day of?
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Oct 2, 2019 20:26
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I'd really enjoy someone doing a poll of people that want no deal and asking them why. I just can't get my head around it.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:27
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Rigel posted:Just an ignorant guess, but is the reason why UK polls are notoriously bad because on the phone a voter will tell them their preference in a perfect world where their party is actually viable, but on voting day they go "welp, my guy is dead in the water in my district, time to vote for the least-bad option" We don't have 'districts' but yes tactical voting is a thing and people itt have done it.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:29
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Taear posted:I'd really enjoy someone doing a poll of people that want no deal and asking them why. Tribal identity, an inflated view of Britain's global status and vindictiveness.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:33
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Taear posted:I'd really enjoy someone doing a poll of people that want no deal and asking them why. I imagine a significant portion want it because they think it's the opposite of what the people they hate want. Politics of spite. e: f, b
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Oct 2, 2019 20:33
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Taear posted:I'd really enjoy someone doing a poll of people that want no deal and asking them why. Racism + BRITAN RULES THE WAVES + young millennials gently caress you I got mine e: f; b*2
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Oct 2, 2019 20:33
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feedmegin posted:We don't have 'districts' but yes tactical voting is a thing and people itt have done it.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:34
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There's a guy on my team at work who is 45 or so and he's all about "Britain's independence day" but he still hasn't really got any idea of why he wants no deal. It'd be nice to really question these people and get out what they really want to happen with this. Of course he also doesn't believe anything bad will happen but I feel like that's a commonality with most people now.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:40
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Taear posted:I'd really enjoy someone doing a poll of people that want no deal and asking them why. A clean break away from the dastardly continentals holding Britain back, because we need to show them that their threats won't work and our great nation can't be bullied into submission. After all, since we give the EU more money than any other country, any Brexit will hurt them far more than us. It'll let us kick the immigrants out, forge our own trade deals, barter and scam our way back to empirehood through British pluck and know-how, and bring about a new golden age.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:42
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I know people who think they'll have "more money" after we leave. They can't articulate how or why, but I'd guess they think their employers will up their wages after all their brown colleagues are sent back
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Oct 2, 2019 20:43
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Wachter posted:I know people who think they'll have "more money" after we leave. They can't articulate how or why, but I'd guess they think their employers will up their wages after all their brown colleagues are sent back They think it because they've been told it and they haven't questioned it because it confirms their world view. The illogic doesn't get through unless they actually question it.
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Oct 2, 2019 20:45
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Essentially the belief that Britain is the best country in the world. Push a little until they accidentally say British people are better than other people. Keep pushing. Make them feel as uncomfortable as possible. Patriotism is a paper-thin veneer over racism. Barry Foster posted:WOAH Bobby Deluxe fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Oct 2, 2019 |
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Oct 2, 2019 20:46
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Wachter posted:I know people who think they'll have "more money" after we leave. They can't articulate how or why, but I'd guess they think their employers will up their wages after all their brown colleagues are sent back “Congratulations on your promotion from sales executive to cleaner!”
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Oct 2, 2019 20:50
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