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Doctor Butts
May 21, 2002

Mahoning posted:

Huh? No I didn't.

Damnit! My old age. I'm Bidening out here in real time.

Here's who I meant to quote:

Brony Car posted:

It still blows my mind that Kennedy from Alternative Nation is now a news personality.

Doctor Butts fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Oct 3, 2019

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Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna

Tibalt posted:

So I want to talk about why the Senate removing Trump from office is almost certainly impossible. I feel like it's important to keep that in context as we go into the next few weeks.

There was a dim hope during the Kavanaugh fight that his nomination would fail, because all it required was a majority vote - flipping 5 Republican Senators, while extremely difficult, wasn't something unimaginable. A present vote also effectively counted as a no.

Removing Trump from office is going to require a 2/3rds majority vote to affirmatively remove - a present vote is effectively a vote to keep Trump in office, so barring some weirdness we'll need 67 votes. I'm going to talk about 23 most Liberal Republican Senators - assuming every Democrat and independents like Angus King vote to remove Trump from office, we'll still need almost all of these Senators to vote against their own party's president.

8 of these Senators have terms that end in 2020: Collins (ME) and Gardner (CO) who come from purple states, and Alexander (TN), Daines (MT), Graham (SC), McConnell (KY), Sasse (NE), and Sullivan (AK) who all come from strong red states. So already there are a few names that seem categorically opposed to removing Trump from office: Lindsey Graham and Mitch Mcconnell are practically write-offs for opposing Trump due to his popularity in their states and their primary struggles. All of them voted to confirm Kavanaugh. Note that the ranking system I looked at put Thom Tillis and Joni Earnst as more conservative than Mitch McConnell, so theoretically their upcoming elections could make them switch - but it could just as easily make it untenable to oppose Trump.

Okay, so let's take a look at the Senators who aren't up for reelection in 2020. 5 of them come from "purple" states, for a very generous definition of purple: Toomey (PA), Grassley (IA), Cruz (TX), Portman (OH), and Burr (NC). Okay, I can imagine it for these names.

You have a few "moderates" from deep red states like Paul (KY), Murkowski (AK), Lee (UT), and Romney (UT), but besides Murkowski all of them have been all talk and no action - Murkowski beat off a primary challenge before so she's all but independent and even then all she did was vote present on Kavanaugh.

The other names? They're people like Kennedy (LA), Thune (SD), Moran (KS) - Senators who have publicly opposed impeachment and defended Trump. You're putting your hopes in guys like Blunt (MO), Hoeven (ND), and Shelby (AL) who seem perfectly content to stay where they are until they die in office and get state funeral.

Pretty much every single name I listed here will need to affirmatively vote to remove Donald Trump Trump office. Frankly, it's more realistic to me that Donald Trump decides to resign for the good of the country than getting all those Senators to flip - that's how unlikely to seems.

No poo poo

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

edit: nm, misread

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







Burr loving hates Trump and isn't running for reelection anyway.

That'd be funny if he just said "gently caress it."

1glitch0
Sep 4, 2018

I DON'T GIVE A CRAP WHAT SHE BELIEVES THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS CHANGED MY LIFE #HUFFLEPUFF

TulliusCicero posted:

So wait a minute:

The Mercers were using their smear machine to get Biden and protect Trump, but their Infowars conspiracy caught the attention of Trump and Rudy who took it 100% seriously, and proceeded to shoot their own dicks off with it?

:lol:


That loving owns :allears:

Decades ago this right-wing propaganda machine started up, but the people in charge knew it was bullshit. At some point people started getting into power who didn't realize it was bullshit. It goes back to my analogy that republicans have become pro wrestlers who have somehow gotten to the main event of Wrestlemania without ever being told it's fake. And now they're about to go through the curtain and the promoter and money men are like "poo poo, they really don't know, do they?"

syntaxrigger
Jul 7, 2011

Actually you owe me 6! But who's countin?

Tibalt posted:

So I want to talk about why the Senate removing Trump from office is almost certainly impossible. I feel like it's important to keep that in context as we go into the next few weeks.

There was a dim hope during the Kavanaugh fight that his nomination would fail, because all it required was a majority vote - flipping 5 Republican Senators, while extremely difficult, wasn't something unimaginable. A present vote also effectively counted as a no.

Removing Trump from office is going to require a 2/3rds majority vote to affirmatively remove - a present vote is effectively a vote to keep Trump in office, so barring some weirdness we'll need 67 votes. I'm going to talk about 23 most Liberal Republican Senators - assuming every Democrat and independents like Angus King vote to remove Trump from office, we'll still need almost all of these Senators to vote against their own party's president.

8 of these Senators have terms that end in 2020: Collins (ME) and Gardner (CO) who come from purple states, and Alexander (TN), Daines (MT), Graham (SC), McConnell (KY), Sasse (NE), and Sullivan (AK) who all come from strong red states. So already there are a few names that seem categorically opposed to removing Trump from office: Lindsey Graham and Mitch Mcconnell are practically write-offs for opposing Trump due to his popularity in their states and their primary struggles. All of them voted to confirm Kavanaugh. Note that the ranking system I looked at put Thom Tillis and Joni Earnst as more conservative than Mitch McConnell, so theoretically their upcoming elections could make them switch - but it could just as easily make it untenable to oppose Trump.

Okay, so let's take a look at the Senators who aren't up for reelection in 2020. 5 of them come from "purple" states, for a very generous definition of purple: Toomey (PA), Grassley (IA), Cruz (TX), Portman (OH), and Burr (NC). Okay, I can imagine it for these names.

You have a few "moderates" from deep red states like Paul (KY), Murkowski (AK), Lee (UT), and Romney (UT), but besides Murkowski all of them have been all talk and no action - Murkowski beat off a primary challenge before so she's all but independent and even then all she did was vote present on Kavanaugh.

The other names? They're people like Kennedy (LA), Thune (SD), Moran (KS) - Senators who have publicly opposed impeachment and defended Trump. You're putting your hopes in guys like Blunt (MO), Hoeven (ND), and Shelby (AL) who seem perfectly content to stay where they are until they die in office and get state funeral.

Pretty much every single name I listed here will need to affirmatively vote to remove Donald Trump Trump office. Frankly, it's more realistic to me that Donald Trump decides to resign for the good of the country than getting all those Senators to flip - that's how unlikely to seems.

Cruz would totally vote against trump. He hates him.

Flip Yr Wig
Feb 21, 2007

Oh please do go on
Fun Shoe

TulliusCicero posted:

So wait a minute:

The Mercers were using their smear machine to get Biden and protect Trump, but their Infowars conspiracy caught the attention of Trump and Rudy who took it 100% seriously, and proceeded to shoot their own dicks off with it?

:lol:


That loving owns :allears:

Do we have any reason to think the Mercers aren't also huffing their own supply?

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

ImpAtom posted:

Cool. So what is your suggestion? Because this reads as another dog whistle call to violence.

So this is the latest angle to smear me with eh? Can't be bothered to engage with my arguments so just insinuate that I am trying to incite violence.

Mass protests and/or a general strike targeting vulnerable infrastructure is what I have been advocating for this entire time. Violence is a nonstarter in the age of AC-130's- imo only mass refusal to cooperate with the system will succeed.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

hidden_msg posted:

Cruz would totally vote against trump. He hates him.

Eh. Cruz and Rubio are cut from the same, formless cloth. They'd toe the party line, and I would be legit shocked sober if they didn't.

skylined!
Apr 6, 2012

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON
What's the math on when republicans begin seeing that trump firing up independents and non-voting leftists is more of a threat than trump's base? That seems relevant.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

hidden_msg posted:

Cruz would totally vote against trump. He hates him.

Cruz would absolutely vote against Trump in a secret election but there's no chance in the world he'd vote to remove in a public one.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

skylined! posted:

What's the math on when republicans begin seeing that trump firing up independents and non-voting leftists is more of a threat than trump's base? That seems relevant.

something approaching the complete dissolution of the republican party, given how many republican senators have no concern whatsoever about a general election

Neo Rasa
Mar 8, 2007
Everyone should play DUKE games.

:dukedog:

skylined! posted:

What's the math on when republicans begin seeing that trump firing up independents and non-voting leftists is more of a threat than trump's base? That seems relevant.

They genuinely won't until however many days it is to November 4th 2020

pacerhimself
Dec 30, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
https://mobile.twitter.com/nvgop/status/1179530407919775744

Imagine thinking this looks good for the Republican party.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

skylined! posted:

What's the math on when republicans begin seeing that trump firing up independents and non-voting leftists is more of a threat than trump's base? That seems relevant.

If Impeach+Remove ever hits 60%, then you can start thinking about that seriously.

Prior to that, it's not something they'd consider.

Your Boy Fancy
Feb 7, 2003

by Cyrano4747

Prester Jane posted:

The thing about voting in this country right now is we have a major unresolved problem with the voting machines being either hacked or easily hackable, and the various watchdog organizations meant to protect said machines have been effectively defunded and defanged. It really doesn't matter what the actual vote tallies will be when the Trump Administration is going to be in charge of counting the votes.

This is categorically and verifiably false as all hell. The Trump Administration does not have any control over counting votes. That belongs to the states, and each state is it’s own unique brand of insanity.

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

pacerhimself posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nvgop/status/1179530407919775744

Imagine thinking this looks good for the Republican party.

Warren's still glowing from all that loving she gets from Marine bodybuilders. :allears:

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Prester Jane posted:

Violence is a nonstarter in the age of AC-130's- imo only mass refusal to cooperate with the system will succeed.
Violence will result regardless of who starts it.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Prester Jane posted:

So this is the latest angle to smear me with eh? Can't be bothered to engage with my arguments so just insinuate that I am trying to incite violence.

Mass protests and/or a general strike targeting vulnerable infrastructure is what I have been advocating for this entire time. Violence is a nonstarter in the age of AC-130's- imo only mass refusal to cooperate with the system will succeed.

Why would those matter in a world where Trump will steal the election? You keep saying everything is hopeless and rigged and police own the cities but are now trying to claim a general strike will resolve things.

Almost every statement you make has the implication that drastic violent action is the only choice. Then when you get it pointed out you pretend you don't mean any such thing.

You may recognize this as the exact same behavior Trump was doing before he started to say the quiet part loud.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

pacerhimself posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nvgop/status/1179530407919775744

Imagine thinking this looks good for the Republican party.

their big own is literally like a dozen people shouting "POCAHONTAS" and "arglebargle SOCIALISM" while chasing someone around who clearly isn't intimidated or giving a poo poo about them

Scott Forstall
Aug 16, 2003

MMM THAT FAUX LEATHER

pacerhimself posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nvgop/status/1179530407919775744

Imagine thinking this looks good for the Republican party.

lol that they can't keep up with a 70 year old woman and half are visibly winded by the end

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Your Boy Fancy posted:

This is categorically and verifiably false as all hell. The Trump Administration does not have any control over counting votes. That belongs to the states, and each state is it’s own unique brand of insanity.
It's county by county and primarily run by people who won an election with like 5% turnout and are making ~$35k a year if they aren't volunteers.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Scott Forstall posted:

lol that they can't keep up with a 70 year old woman and half are visibly winded by the end

The Rascal Brigade is far less effective when forced to dismount.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



Anecdotal story time.

So I talked to my dad yesterday while visiting home. He's part of those people who are middle of the road voters. Voted for Bush, then Clinton, then Bush, then Kerry, then Obama and finally Hillary. Slightly leaning dem, but only slightly. Mostly just on the strength of their economic policies. A pocketbook voter.

I was sitting with my mom in the kitchen and she's asking me if Trump should be impeached and I say yes. We have a small discussion and my dad, who I've been telling Trump is a senile old crook for years and he thinks that the president isn't the brightest and somewhat corrupt asked me straight up if he thinks Trump is going to plot a coup to keep power to keep from being prosecuted.

Now my dad is basically a CNN watching guy, which is gross because it's basically professional wrestling news, but whatever. He'll watch Colbert who's become terribly unfunny and laughs at his dumb impressions. He reads centrist newspapers and I'm wondering where the hell he's getting these ideas from, because he's never delved into conspiracy minded news sources at all, even if those conspiracies are real. And I realized that that sort of talk is penetrating into the centrist news sources. I don't know where he's getting the ideas, but it's coming from centrist news sources because that's all he consumes. That Trump may launch a coup to save himself from prison and bankruptcy. And he's nodding along in a thoughtful, worried way to things that I've been saying for years. That Trump is a terrible president, that he's openly cruel, that he's incompetent, that he's senile. More nods.

And he asks me if I think he could pull it off and I say no, but it'll get really nasty. That we'll see a spike in white supremacist terrorist attacks beyond anything we've seen since maybe the fifties and sixties. And probably worse because they're more interested in spree shooting, hitting soft targets. That sort of thing. That to pull off a successful coup, you need the police, intelligence services and military on your side. That Trump has done nothing to ingratiate himself with the military, often making GBS threads on them, the intelligence agencies actively hate his guts and that really only the police will back him. And police will find themselves overwhelmed by any kind of mass action.

Also that the people who would be running the coup from the top, the intelligent, ruthless, calculating people have almost all been poo poo canned. That almost everyone with military experience has been fired, and anyone who can lead large insurrections and can command loyalty from troops has also been not only fired, but publicly stabbed in the back. But that it will take action for people to depose him if he tries to launch a coup. My dad, talking about this poo poo. It's weird.

We talked for a while if he was just going to leverage his assets and flee to Russia. Personally I think that's possible, but unlikely. He'll have to really feel like he can't win and reality doesn't pierce his bubble often and when it does, he flies into narcissistic rages. That my real worry is that he's going to dig in his heels during the lame duck session if/when he loses, if our voting machines aren't hopelessly compromised (if) and that he'll have about a month to see who deserts him and if his attempted coup gains strength and hurts a ton of people or if Trump basically self-immolates while making GBS threads himself.

He said it would be the end of America if there is a coup, even a failed one. I disagreed. It would be the end of the republican party. That in history, parties have collapsed and news ones have arisen over time. A party going down doesn't take down the country. Or that it rarely does. Civil war would definitely fracture the country, but the republicans don't actually want that despite their rhetoric. That most of them are horribly old and old people don't fight in the streets.

And then, thoughtful and disturbed, he went upstairs to go to sleep. Or maybe not. I finished my beer and went right to sleep, because I've been dealing with these thoughts for probably the last two or three years. And he's going through what I went through, years behind me. And that if people like my dad can speak about these ideas, even if just in private, that something is finally changing. That ideas that were previously unthinkable by most people are now being thought, considered and spoken.

poo poo is changing.

Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Oct 3, 2019

Triskelli
Sep 27, 2011

I AM A SKELETON
WITH VERY HIGH
STANDARDS



It’s still good to lay out “why” for the people in the back.

Thanks for the analysis Tibalt.

No Safe Word
Feb 26, 2005

hidden_msg posted:

Cruz would totally vote against trump. He hates him.

Personally probably yes, publicly hell no he's a loving party stooge the whole way. No question.

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

ImpAtom posted:

You keep saying everything is hopeless and rigged and police own the cities but are now trying to claim a general strike will resolve things.

Almost every statement you make has the implication that drastic violent action is the only choice. Then when you get it pointed out you pretend you don't mean any such thing.

You may recognize this as the exact same behavior Trump was doing before he started to say the quiet part loud.

Direct drastic action on the part of the body politic is necessary, but violent actions will fail. There is nothing inconsistent in my stance, and I have been advocating the same approach for over a year now.

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

skylined! posted:

What's the math on when republicans begin seeing that trump firing up independents and non-voting leftists is more of a threat than trump's base? That seems relevant.

I don't think there is any scenario where elected GOP members can turn on Trump. Non-voting leftists and independents who don't like Trump aren't going to vote for a Republican who kinda-sorta-recently stood up to him. No matter how bad he gets, or what it does to the polls, those voters loyal to Trump under any circumstance are the only ones they are going to get. Every Republican is attached to Trump at the hip until they decide to quit politics.

Also, those approval numbers are really bad for Democrats. Trump talks about adding numbers to his polls to get the true number, but there is definitely a shy Tory effect when it comes to polling on Trump, so I'd definitely tack on 3-5 points to get a more accurate picture of where he stands in an election. Remember, in 2016 he got elected with 46% of the vote, with sub 40% approval numbers.

Hobojim
Oct 31, 2011


Not American but have been following this carnival sideshow for the last week quite a bit when I'm feeling bored and need to laugh while being terrified at the same time.

I understand that impeachment doesn't mean removal from office. What is the penalty associated with getting impeached, in that case? Seems like kind of a lovely situation to tell your leader Hey, you've done illegal things and flagrantly abused your power, but you can keep the keys to the country and continue your corruption. I can't imagine fines or reputation would deter him much, considering he's too far gone to notice his reputation is poo poo and he's been the laughing stock of world politics since he was inaugurated.

Also, it seems like the house voting to impeach is pretty likely, but how many republican votes would need to flip to have the senate vote to impeach as well? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding the situation?

pacerhimself
Dec 30, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

sexpig by night posted:

their big own is literally like a dozen people shouting "POCAHONTAS" and "arglebargle SOCIALISM" while chasing someone around who clearly isn't intimidated or giving a poo poo about them

Angrily shouting "SOCIALISM IS A MENTAL ILLNESS" while chasing a 70 year old woman around sure is a thing.

They sound like the doomcryers at college campuses.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Hobojim posted:

Not American but have been following this carnival sideshow for the last week quite a bit when I'm feeling bored and need to laugh while being terrified at the same time.

I understand that impeachment doesn't mean removal from office. What is the penalty associated with getting impeached, in that case? Seems like kind of a lovely situation to tell your leader Hey, you've done illegal things and flagrantly abused your power, but you can keep the keys to the country and continue your corruption. I can't imagine fines or reputation would deter him much, considering he's too far gone to notice his reputation is poo poo and he's been the laughing stock of world politics since he was inaugurated.

Also, it seems like the house voting to impeach is pretty likely, but how many republican votes would need to flip to have the senate vote to impeach as well? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding the situation?

The punishment is removal. Technically the check on the President is the legislature and they can keep him in office but remove most of his powers via the law, but the Republicans mostly just care about primary voters so they don't do poo poo.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


https://twitter.com/fordm/status/1179811559901716480

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1179812531646484482

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Is it just me or does Warren have scarily little physical security there? Did she just walk off a commercial flight?

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





FBS posted:

have y'all never seen actual Christianity before today
I mean we're mostly Americans here so... no.

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

haveblue posted:

Is it just me or does Warren have scarily little physical security there? Did she just walk off a commercial flight?

A Cherokee warrior can take care of herself.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

haveblue posted:

Is it just me or does Warren have scarily little physical security there? Did she just walk off a commercial flight?

Sh'es got a 24yo war vet just off camera ready to do whatever she says.

Hiro Protagonist
Oct 25, 2010

Last of the freelance hackers and
Greatest swordfighter in the world
I think right now I need someone to tell me Trump isn't likely to be reelected, because I'm down right terrified at this point that he can do anything and still win.

Lyndon LaRouche
Sep 5, 2006

by Azathoth

haveblue posted:

Is it just me or does Warren have scarily little physical security there? Did she just walk off a commercial flight?

If she has literally just exited the gate then she's in the secure area of the airport.

If that's the case then I'm wondering exactly how a bunch of prepared, sign-waving Trump cultists were right there waiting for her. Doesn't a general public schlub have to be a confirmed passenger to get past a TSA checkpoint?

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OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

haveblue posted:

Is it just me or does Warren have scarily little physical security there? Did she just walk off a commercial flight?

Didn't want to say anything, but yeah--that worried me too.

Granted, she was taken immediately from the plane to a waiting car, but that's still a large area of vulnerability. I kept expecting one of the chuds to try and Kerrigan her or something.

paperwind posted:

If she has literally just exited the gate then she's in the secure area of the airport.

If that's the case then I'm wondering exactly how a bunch of prepared, sign-waving Trump cultists were right there waiting for her. Doesn't a general public schlub have to be a confirmed passenger to get past a TSA checkpoint?
She was exiting the secure part of the airport and walking through the baggage claim/pre-security areas to the exit. So no checkpoint issues.

Plus, she's a 70yo woman. Even an unarmed attack could be real dangerous.

OAquinas fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Oct 3, 2019

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