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The Glumslinger posted:I'd disagree, Kamala is actually a pretty good public speaker. Her problem is that she desperately tried to find a middle ground between being a centrist and a progressive candidate and ended up appealing to neither faction. She would say too many progressive things that centrists didn't like, then she would immediately walk them all back and pissed off progressives. It left her with no substance that could sell and no one in the democratic primary is getting super excited about her history as a tough on crime prosecutor that is now all about criminal reform without any significant legislation as a Senator to back that up. I wasn't saying she isn't a good public speaker, I'm saying she lacks charisma and doesn't seem to be able to work a crowd like Bernie or even people like Harris or Beto can. She's a lot like Hillary. On the opposite end Trump is a dreadful public speaker, but he still has charisma.
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Oct 4, 2019 21:46
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Epicurius posted:I think Yang is a message candidate. He's running less to win than to try to draw attention to UBI. I sort of agree. I think that's basically what Yang is doing, but I don't think that's what he's trying to do; his actions, the bizarre contortions and catches in his UBI proposal, and other things feel like there's more that he wants to do than just spread the message of how great UBI is. But he sucks and is not doing great so that's generally what he's getting out there to people who don't get as into this stuff as the average reader of this thread.
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Oct 4, 2019 21:48
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Yeah, the one thing that I didn't see coming this primary was how bad Kalama and her campaign were going to be. I knew Beto would crater spectacularly, that Biden would eventually crash, but I thought it would be leading to Bernie vs Kamala, not Bernie vs Warren. Watching her undercut her own message and sabotage her own positive media moments has been incredible.
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Oct 4, 2019 21:52
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joepinetree posted:Yeah, the one thing that I didn't see coming this primary was how bad Kalama and her campaign were going to be. I knew Beto would crater spectacularly, that Biden would eventually crash, but I thought it would be leading to Bernie vs Kamala, not Bernie vs Warren. Watching her undercut her own message and sabotage her own positive media moments has been incredible. This surprised me too. I thought Harris would be a much bigger force going into this than she has been, and was actually worried that the California primary getting moved up (a good thing in and of itself) could lead to her getting a lot of early delegates and building momentum that would be difficult to stop. Instead, she's almost irrelevant before things have even started and isn't even the highest polling no-hoper in her home state, where her current percentage of the vote would net her no delegates at all. She's really messed this up somehow.
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Oct 4, 2019 21:59
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Epicurius posted:I think Yang is a message candidate. He's running less to win than to try to draw attention to UBI. Shame he doesn't have a good plan for one. Makes me wonder if it's more that he's running to undermine the concept before it gets purchase in the public conscious.
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Oct 4, 2019 22:00
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Roland Jones posted:This surprised me too. I thought Harris would be a much bigger force going into this than she has been, and was actually worried that the California primary getting moved up (a good thing in and of itself) could lead to her getting a lot of early delegates and building momentum that would be difficult to stop. Which is weird considering how long she and Booker were semi-pushed as rising stars in the party. I don't know if they were just bad bets that didn't pan out at the national level or if it says something about a lack desirability for centrist-ish politicians in the future.
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Oct 4, 2019 22:05
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Yup. Add me to the column of "wow, she really kicked rear end during the kavanaugh hearing" and figured she'd be an establishment-friendly juggernaut. On paper she had it all-resume, favor of the party, well-spoken, able to identify issues and speak to them. She was even hinting at some progressive stances for a larger party base. Her start was slow, but I figured she was going to turn it up during the debates, and the first debate with the Biden shank seemed to bear that out. Then she started taking every stance on every issue, backtracking, and generally having the kinetic impact of a fart cannon. Welp. Glad I exited my Harris PI position early. overmind2000 posted:Which is weird considering how long she and Booker were semi-pushed as rising stars in the party. I don't know if they were just bad bets that didn't pan out at the national level or if it says something about a lack desirability for centrist-ish politicians in the future. Her problem is something identified above: she has no unique stance, no signature position. She's just "not trump" which is great but it's not really a siren call when you have a dozen and a half other candidates who clear that bar as well. She's not even consistent in the positions she took previously, which...really don't help your enthusiasm level. OAquinas fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Oct 4, 2019 |
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Oct 4, 2019 22:05
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Cerebral Bore posted:In case you have been living under a rock, the goto establishment Dem talking point against M4A is that we can't do it because we need to protect the ACA instead. Incrementalism as used by the centrists absolutely is a tactic to prevent real change by instead enacting some half-measure and then accusing the left of wanting to take away that half-measure when we rightly point out that it doesn't work as advertised. Do you think the people who defend the hill of the donors would be in for M4A if ACA didn’t exist? They’d be doing Biden’s “this is America” line, much more loudly. These people will always oppose M4A, and extending health care to people 18-27 and the Medicaid expansion are still good things and aren’t why centrists want to “protect ACA.” It’s just the talking point du jour from people who would resort to something else.
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Oct 4, 2019 22:15
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Condiv posted:this isn't called finding a middle ground. it's called flip-flopping She tried to do it and failed miserably
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Oct 4, 2019 22:17
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overmind2000 posted:Which is weird considering how long she and Booker were semi-pushed as rising stars in the party. I don't know if they were just bad bets that didn't pan out at the national level or if it says something about a lack desirability for centrist-ish politicians in the future. less to do with that and more to do with the marvels of modern science mixing with politics to hilarious ends. generational politics is by and large horseshit, but political generations are a thing thanks to the ludicrous power of incumbency. and the GenXers face a horrifying reality: the Boomers are dying later than the Silents. statins are the reason Nancy Pelosi's rotting corpse is leader of the House, statins are the reason Mitch McConnell's rotting corpse is leader of the Senate, statins are the reason Chuck Grassley's mummified rotting corpse continues to sit in its seat, and statins are the reason Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are going nowhere fast. by Pelosi and McConnell's ages, their predecessors were senile or dead. but now, we can keep them kicking another ten or twenty years. and so, the GenX crop of democratic and republican politicians both has been stuck fetching coffee for their betters for twenty years longer. that's twenty years more of disqualifying votes, twenty years more of unquestioningly saying "yes sir, actually concentration camps in the desert are good sir, deregulating the banks sounds good sir," and twenty years more of slowly lashing yourselves to your leaders' corpses as they drift into senility, all hoping ANY DAY NOW they're going to hand down power peacefully, so they don't have to bother dealing with any of those icky "voter" things. Ask Kamala Harris how betting on Joe Biden bowing out gracefully pans out.
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Oct 4, 2019 22:19
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Roland Jones posted:This surprised me too. I thought Harris would be a much bigger force going into this than she has been, and was actually worried that the California primary getting moved up (a good thing in and of itself) could lead to her getting a lot of early delegates and building momentum that would be difficult to stop. The way she will grab headlines with something she says that almost immediately disavow it kills any potential positive coverage that she'd receive. Like, she shanks Biden in the first democratic debate and surges to 2nd in the polls and as she is receiving all that positive attention she decides to public proclaim that, you know what, she actually agrees with Biden on the issue. And it's not that this was the thing that drove voters off her, but it means that essentially all that positive coverage is going to disappear.
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Oct 4, 2019 22:23
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Majorian posted:Because Virgil is the best non-Amber Chapo, duh. I hope this isn't implying Amber is the best Chapo, because she has some hot takes that are effectively the same as Aimee Terese (not really on the podcast though, just through other outlets).
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Oct 4, 2019 22:41
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https://twitter.com/chrisdonato04/status/1180239424296112128 Hes
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Oct 4, 2019 22:56
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poo poo, I legit teared up at this.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:06
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I guess Bernie's doctors did confirm it. https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1180248233123221515
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Oct 4, 2019 23:32
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The Glumslinger posted:Hes  Also this is a live feed of me seeing Chapo posts itt:  I will kill all of you. This thread is already bad enough and I’m stuck at work so don’t make me walk away from the desk.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:32
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joepinetree posted:And it's not that this was the thing that drove voters off her, but it means that essentially all that positive coverage is going to disappear. By itself probably not but I feel like that was the third notable flip flop. She was billed as a coalition binding candidate and no part of the democratic coalition had any reason to be excited for her. I feel like the whole Kamala is a cop defanged one of her main points of career pride and in addition to the flip flopping just kept her from ever catching fire. When her attacks on Biden didn’t really dent his support among black voters it’s just not clear who she is supposed to peel away to start generating momentum.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:43
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:and so, the GenX crop of democratic and republican politicians both has been stuck fetching coffee for their betters for twenty years longer. The Republicans at least got Paul Ryan out of the deal (even if that was because all the republicans above him fell apart in scandals or, in the case of Boehner, decided he was tired of trying to appease the tea party. They've also got Kevin McCarthy The Democrats had Obama, I guess.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:44
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Epicurius posted:The Republicans at least got Paul Ryan out of the deal (even if that was because all the republicans above him fell apart in scandals or, in the case of Boehner, decided he was tired of trying to appease the tea party. They've also got Kevin McCarthy Obama actually qualifies as a Boomer. 
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Oct 4, 2019 23:46
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Wiltsghost posted:I guess Bernie's doctors did confirm it. It's real clever for them to have not let this out until he was discharged.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:50
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https://twitter.com/pblest/status/1180246907349864448?s=19 BBBEEEEERRRNNNIIIEEEE 
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Oct 4, 2019 23:51
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Gripweed posted:It's real clever for them to have not let this out until he was discharged. That and it’s friday afternoon in the middle of inpeachapalooza.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:53
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Wiltsghost posted:I guess Bernie's doctors did confirm it. This still sounds very bad, and very hard to spin.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:54
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Kokoro Wish posted:poo poo, I legit teared up at this. yeah it's powerful.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:57
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GoutPatrol posted:This still sounds very bad, and very hard to spin. Meanwhile, in the Biden campaign  I swear issues of health, gender/racial representation, experience, age, and personal wealth literally only matter if you're running to the left of the already pretty far right establishment in this country. And it absolutely owns. I'm prepared for some next level takes from the MSNBC crew after this.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:58
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Kokoro Wish posted:poo poo, I legit teared up at this. Same! This is how we win. If we can’t go through the media, we go around them.
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Oct 4, 2019 23:59
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same guy made this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVS-itGeeEA clubbed to death (SOCDEM remix) Gripweed posted:It doesn't matter. If he dies during the race we'll just put some sunglasses on him, sling his arm over Ilhan Omar's shoulder, and it's Weekend at Bernie's time until election day. Groovelord Neato posted:if we gotta weekend at bernie's we gotta weekend at bernie's. Groovelord Neato fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Oct 5, 2019 |
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Oct 5, 2019 00:00
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GoutPatrol posted:This still sounds very bad, and very hard to spin. It doesn't matter. If he dies during the race we'll just put some sunglasses on him, sling his arm over Ilhan Omar's shoulder, and it's Weekend at Bernie's time until election day.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:00
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GoutPatrol posted:This still sounds very bad, and very hard to spin. Nah, most primary voters aren't paying attention at this point, to say nothing of general election voters. What matters is how Bernie appears publicly going forward.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:25
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I'd say it's bad, but luckily impeachment is relegating the primary back to sideshow status so as long as he is fine at debate, it probably won't get much traction with the public
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Oct 5, 2019 00:27
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Four months out from first caucus, when do we consider it primary season where people are paying attention? Thanksgiving? After everyone gets to squabble with the family? New year? I feel like the people who tune in last minute will base their decision on Iowa and NH. And primary voters in those two states are paying attention, right now.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:35
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Yiggy posted:Four months out from first caucus, when do we consider it primary season where people are paying attention? Thanksgiving? After everyone gets to squabble with the family? New year? I don't have the numbers on-hand right now, but IIRC, the vast majority of Iowa primary voters are undecided at this point. They may be paying attention, but I kind of doubt it, for the most part.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:36
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I doubt the average person will really care until the beginning of next year.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:49
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Yiggy posted:That and it’s friday afternoon in the middle of inpeachapalooza. Speaking of Friday afternoon news drops, the Sanders campaign wasn't the only one with something to bury today. https://mobile.twitter.com/politico/status/1180212783323009025 Although an anonymous source claims that this investigation and firing had nothing to do with sexual harassment (but refused to further elaborate), it's worth noting that the lawyer hired to do the investigation specializes in workplace discrimination law, particularly gender discrimination and sexual harassment.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:49
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Smart move by the Bernie campaign and I have no idea how many things fit under the common parlance of heart attack so I am dying seeing these ghoulish reporters clarify it is... ladies and gentleman... in fact a heart attack.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:52
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Majorian posted:I don't have the numbers on-hand right now, but IIRC, the vast majority of Iowa primary voters are undecided at this point. They may be paying attention, but I kind of doubt it, for the most part. I don’t think this is true. In the recent Selzer poll there was a question about whether your mind was made up already or if you could still be persuaded to vote for someone else. It was split 20% made up 63% persuadable 1% not sure and 16% with no first choice candidate. The 16 breaks down into 14% not sure and 2% none of the above. Calling the 63% of people that have a first choice but still consider themselves persuadable undecided is a pretty big stretch. If anything, I think it shows they are paying attention.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:54
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Yiggy posted:Four months out from first caucus, when do we consider it primary season where people are paying attention? Thanksgiving? After everyone gets to squabble with the family? New year? It's so hard to say with this stuff. In 2016 Trump polled ahead almost immediately...and continued to do so for the rest of the primary season. But there are other years where there's been lots of movement. Part of me wonders if Biden might not just go all the way. Sure he's a shambling corpse but that whole Return to Normalcy messaging--I feel like that's how a huge percentage of Democrats understand politics right now. "Get the scary man out of the White House!" I guess a sense that Trump would annihilate him in the general, or bad early performance in the primaries, could shake that up a bit but I wouldn't count out the possibility of Trump slaughtering Biden next November. Or, if the economy crashes before then, a Biden squeaker followed by Neo Hitler in 2024.
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Oct 5, 2019 00:57
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So I better not be able to find any posts out of yous from 2016 saying that Hillary should drop out after she was helped into that van right?
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Oct 5, 2019 01:02
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Ogmius815 posted:So I better not be able to find any posts out of yous from 2016 saying that Hillary should drop out after she was helped into that van right? If you want to make the case that Sanders should drop out because of the heart attach just do that instead of whatever passive aggressive bullshit this is
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Oct 5, 2019 01:04
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Ogmius815 posted:So I better not be able to find any posts out of yous from 2016 saying that Hillary should drop out after she was helped into that van right? It might be comparable if Bernie's campaign spent weeks insisting it was just a case of heartburn.
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Oct 5, 2019 01:05
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