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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Sinteres posted:

Al-Saqr already said they did what they had to do to survive, he's just saying nobody should mistake the consolation prize of ending up under regime rule as any kind of victory.

Well no clearly it's a disaster, but I'm not willing to concede that this proves all their "leftist flag waving" was "just a show".

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echomadman
Aug 24, 2004

Nap Ghost

Al-Saqr posted:

So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. And in the end all principles fall by the wayside. What a disaster for everyone.

You loving smug ghoul, you keep saying you're not gloating and then continue to gloat,.

edit: what about the ethnic interests of the Yezidis and Christian populations that the Kurds helped to defend, not as valuable to you as the CIA/Saudi funded jihadis who coopted any nascent leftist arab uprising from the beginning?

echomadman fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Oct 14, 2019

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Savy Saracen salad posted:

Any poster whom thinks that Kurds will even have the slightest semblance of authority or even tiniest bit of self determination under Baathist rule is a massive fool and utter moron. Usually this kind of posts comes from western tankies living in privileged countries whom did not experience the pleasure of living in countries ruled by military juntas/run by the military intelligence.

And again, the alternative is ethnic cleansing lol.
Are you so sheltered to think that is preferable to authoritarian rule?

Hell it isn't even necessarily an alternative.
The Turkish method means most of the Kurds will survive technically, but as refugees outside the Turkish zones. Meaning a battered homeless mass of Kurds whose military forces are shot to poo poo would end up in.... territory that would be easily regained by Assad anyway. So like... now or later? Maybe keep your homes with Assad, rather than living in desert tent villages under Assad.

Grape fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Oct 14, 2019

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-syria-mistake-thought-turkey-bluffed-invasion-axios-2019-10

In an October 6 phone call, Erdogan appeared to call Trump's opposition to the plan. After telling the US president that a planned Turkish military operation would go ahead, Trump abruptly ordered the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

But according to Axios, even Erdogan was surprised by how quickly Trump acceded to his demands. He had expected Trump to push back and to broker a compromise, the news site reported.

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



Sinteres posted:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-syria-mistake-thought-turkey-bluffed-invasion-axios-2019-10

In an October 6 phone call, Erdogan appeared to call Trump's opposition to the plan. After telling the US president that a planned Turkish military operation would go ahead, Trump abruptly ordered the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

But according to Axios, even Erdogan was surprised by how quickly Trump acceded to his demands. He had expected Trump to push back and to broker a compromise, the news site reported.

Art of the Deal: Completely give in at the first possible opportunity

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

I wonder if the Idlib rebels will decide now is a good time to launch an offensive, or if they're just happy not to be the ones getting killed at the moment. Barring major conflict, this is probably the most overstretched the regime is ever going to be again until the next civil war. The counterpoint is that, with the exception of Aleppo (which is presumably locked down hard), the front lines are really far away from important cities now.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Oct 14, 2019

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Sinteres posted:

I wonder if the Idlib rebels will decide now is a good time to launch an offensive, or if they're just happy not to be the ones getting killed at the moment. Barring major conflict, this is probably the most overstretched the regime is ever going to be again until the next civil war.

I think the regime is permanently a skeleton crew, they literally cannot do anything without Russian air cover or iranian and sectarian gangs, so if Russia tells them to stop they’ll stop.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

I read somewhere that Russian ground units were working alongside SAA as they move into SDF territory. Is this true?

YoursTruly
Jul 29, 2012

Put me in the trash
Recycle Bin
where
I belong.
How much of an impact would a Russian mandated "no-fly zone" even have on Turkey's ability to bomb targets in Northern Syria? Wouldn't Turkey be able to fly aircraft and launch munitions from within their own borders, like Israel has done on occasion? I guess they wouldn't be able to loiter over a target area, but fixed positions should still be vulnerable?

Also, considering the SDF's success in retaking Raqqa, I would imagine it to be the regime's intent to use them to retake Idlib, sometime after things cool down with Turkey. The former SDF soldiers are experienced, their long term loyalty to the regime is questionable, and the SAA is pretty exhausted, so why not send them into a meat grinder? Putting them under the command of Russian forces should make it easier for them to coordinate with Russian aircraft at least.

Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord

Count Roland posted:

I read somewhere that Russian ground units were working alongside SAA as they move into SDF territory. Is this true?
I suppose we might find out at some point but it's impossible to know. The SNA have announced on Twitter that they are commencing their assault on Manbij so if Russian units are involved I expect to see that attack either quietly halted or repulsed with interest.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Count Roland posted:

I read somewhere that Russian ground units were working alongside SAA as they move into SDF territory. Is this true?
Considering the SAA hasn't existed in any meaningful way for at least 5 years it's probably true.

Russians are very much the only thing keeping the regime's "army" from just loving off to be 100 different truck militias.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
Guys I really don’t think you should ruminate on any kind of conflict happening between turkey and Russia they’ve had several meetings over the last year to work out this situation and now they’re fulfilling each other’s bargains, this has all been worked out a while ago.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Edit: nvm, should probably wait for some kind of confirmation on this

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Oct 14, 2019

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/zaytung/status/1183754580359823361

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Al-Saqr posted:

Guys I really don’t think you should ruminate on any kind of conflict happening between turkey and Russia they’ve had several meetings over the last year to work out this situation and now they’re fulfilling each other’s bargains, this has all been worked out a while ago.

They just had a big arms deal the other day, there's no way they're about to start shooting eachother.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Yeah, I've got a feeling that Syria has been Ribbentrop-Molotov'd already, and they're just putting up a show now to justify it. And that the party caught with it's pants down was the US.

And I cross my fingers that we are be in the final chapter of the Syrian Civil war as opposed to opening of a new Act.

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin

Freezer posted:

Yeah, I've got a feeling that Syria has been Ribbentrop-Molotov'd already, and they're just putting up a show now to justify it. And that the party caught with it's pants down was the US.

And I cross my fingers that we are be in the final chapter of the Syrian Civil war as opposed to opening of a new Act.

The Iranians also seemed pretty confused at how the trump regime suddenly folding like a lawnchair. Presumably erdogan has brought them up to speed on things.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

This is the second reporter I've seen say that officials are telling them Turkey and/or TFSA are deliberately releasing ISIS prisoners to blame the Kurds for setting them free, as Trump did this morning:

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1183793908884611072

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

NATO could you kindly kick Turkey out for aiding the eternal enemy?

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

You can tell how seriously he's taking all of this:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183822494031065088

Weird how that doesn't apply to the troops we just put in Saudi Arabia, or to the war we're helping Saudi Arabia wage in Yemen. Have to imagine the Baltic countries are pretty worried when they see him saying why should we care about conflicts thousands of miles away though.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Oct 14, 2019

Less Claypool
Apr 16, 2009

More Primus For Fucks Sake.

Sinteres posted:

You can tell how seriously he's taking all of this:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183822494031065088

Weird how that doesn't apply to the troops we just put in Saudi Arabia, or to the war we're helping Saudi Arabia wage in Yemen. Have to imagine the Baltic countries are pretty worried when they see him saying why should we care about conflicts thousands of miles away though.

I honestly can’t tell if he is being literal or sarcastic.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://twitter.com/theonion/status/1183806943682584576?s=21

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

their plan worked!

quote:

IDLIB, SYRIA—Explaining that they hoped the personnel changes would enable the organization to avoid the State Department’s scrutiny, ISIS leaders announced Monday that they had added a few violent white supremacists to the group in a bid to get the U.S. to rescind its designation of ISIS as terrorists.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Less Claypool posted:

I honestly can’t tell if he is being literal or sarcastic.

That depends on how people respond to it. If they say nice things, he was serious. If they dislike it, he was joking.

Ebeneezer Splooge
Nov 2, 2018

Curious to see how long this agreement lasts or if any of the terms are fulfilled.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Grape posted:

And again, the alternative is ethnic cleansing lol.
Are you so sheltered to think that is preferable to authoritarian rule?

Hell it isn't even necessarily an alternative.
The Turkish method means most of the Kurds will survive technically, but as refugees outside the Turkish zones. Meaning a battered homeless mass of Kurds whose military forces are shot to poo poo would end up in.... territory that would be easily regained by Assad anyway. So like... now or later? Maybe keep your homes with Assad, rather than living in desert tent villages under Assad.

yeah, once the US withdrew it was a certainty that any rational Kurdish leader would surrender to Assad immediately

I ain't gonna judge them in the slightest for that

Edit if point six in the agreement (Kurds get some official spots in the regime in the interim period before the new constitution, ie forever) holds up and isn't just ceremonial thats a better deal for them than I expected

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Oct 14, 2019

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1...ingawful.com%2F

Who_must_go?.png

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

I must have been reading too much 19th century Russian history lately because I half expected Russia to suddenly shout "ONWARD TO TSARGRAD" at one point over the past few days.

cargo cult
Aug 28, 2008

by Reene
im not a fan of american empire but this is kinda disconcerting

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

cargo cult posted:

im not a fan of american empire but this is kinda disconcerting

it's a really bad situation because there kinda was no answer for 'what are we supposed to do then' other than 'stay there forever just in case Turkey gets froggy' but this is probably the most chaotic and insane way to divest our troops from in the region

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

sexpig by night posted:

it's a really bad situation because there kinda was no answer for 'what are we supposed to do then' other than 'stay there forever just in case Turkey gets froggy' but this is probably the most chaotic and insane way to divest our troops from in the region

On the plus side it wasn't a particularly expensive or morally fraught proposition to just pay a thousand or so US soldiers to sit around playing video games / training commies.

Oh well!

Gresh
Jan 12, 2019


Savy Saracen salad posted:

Any poster whom thinks that Kurds will even have the slightest semblance of authority or even tiniest bit of self determination under Baathist rule is a massive fool and utter moron. Usually this kind of posts comes from western tankies living in privileged countries whom did not experience the pleasure of living in countries ruled by military juntas/run by the military intelligence.

They won't, but at least least they won't be tossed into mass graves ISIS style under Erdogan and his Islamofascist proxies. Anyone who can't understand why the Kurds did not hesitate to subjugate themselves to Assad and the Russians instead of genocide is an utter fool and moron.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

I must have been reading too much 19th century Russian history lately because I half expected Russia to suddenly shout "ONWARD TO TSARGRAD" at one point over the past few days.

What makes you think the Russians and Turks are enemies in this?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

GreyjoyBastard posted:

On the plus side it wasn't a particularly expensive or morally fraught proposition to just pay a thousand or so US soldiers to sit around playing video games / training commies.

Oh well!

Literally it was probably the best bang for our buck of any 1000 troops the US has deployed anywhere on earth, too.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
Convert all Trump properties worldwide into Kurdish refugee shelters.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

This is so dumb its physically hurting me

quote:

The US has sanctioned two Turkish ministries and three senior government officials in response to the country's military offensive in northern Syria.

President Donald Trump also phoned his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to demand an immediate truce, Vice-President Mike Pence said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50050264

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

Vasukhani posted:

What makes you think the Russians and Turks are enemies in this?

The partition isn't exactly tidy. Manbij now has tanks from both sides in it. That seems like it could escalate pretty unpleasantly.

Less Claypool
Apr 16, 2009

More Primus For Fucks Sake.

Grape posted:

Convert all Trump properties worldwide into Kurdish refugee shelters.

Send over some C 17s and bring em over. They’re surrounded by lunatics anyway.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Darth Walrus posted:

The partition isn't exactly tidy. Manbij now has tanks from both sides in it. That seems like it could escalate pretty unpleasantly.

Probably not if it hasn't already. Decent chance the Kurds (and US foreign policy, of course) are going to be the only losers in this partition.

Hopefully Assad doesn't run his own ethnic cleansing campaign.

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Turkey and russia is an alliance of conveniance.

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