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FuturePastNow posted:So what I'm hearing is that if you're a terrorist and you manage to steal a B61, you pry out the plutonium and uranium and sell those to Iran and sell the electronic parts of the bomb to a Russian No. Making a proper implosion device is disturbingly easy. It's the fusion part that's enormously complicated and obsufcated
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Oct 16, 2019 13:02
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Squalid posted:the language and naming of early big guns is so confused, there's all kinds of different names for stuff and nobody seems to be consistent plus a lot of modern writers seem to use ahistoric terms -_- If you're interested, the book The Art of Gunfounding is basically indispensable as a look into an 18th century gunfoundry. All the watercolors were done by the leading founders, Jan and Pieter Verbruggen, and they were the ones who changed from hollow castings to bored solid castings at Woolwich. It's no longer in print so check uni libraries, but it's an exceptional resource.
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Oct 16, 2019 13:31
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bewbies posted:like can they make stupid oversized cruisers and armored hulk battleships and stuff? 
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Oct 16, 2019 14:59
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https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1184487914761265152 From scratch huh.
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Oct 16, 2019 17:28
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1184487914761265152 Previous research was counter-revolutionary, 通知.
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Oct 16, 2019 17:49
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Previous posts Chase the hyperlinks to the previous posts in this thread. Website archive that i will get round to uploading all this to eventually. 1986 to 1988 - The war runs out of steam Up to this point the war has sort of swung both ways, both sides have displayed competence, incompetence and ruthlessness in pretty much equal measure. However, the long standing Iranian policy of nothing but aggression has leeched away much of their support and their situation is starting to become somewhat critical. They need to win and win quickly. Khomeini is close to death and is currently bedridden, his three potential successors, Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Montazeri are jockeying for position and each has quite different ideas on how exactly to win. This will not assist Iran in its quest to triumph. However, Khomeini has issued a fatwa that Basra must be taken, so they all set about that particular activity with greater or lesser degrees of gusto. The essential plan is that if you take Basra you set off a Shiite insurrection in southern Iraq which would then mean that The People Will Rise Up and overthrow Saddam permitting them to drive up the Euphrates to Baghdad. Realistically I don’t think that was ever a particular danger. Anti-Persian sentiment was high, Iran had hardly been a particular good-natured foe or ruler of Arabs in its territory. Saddam was a very effective dictator in terms of eliminating and having a good gauge on dissent and had been conducting pre-emptive purges and suppression of potential elements, particularly the marsh Arabs, in the area for years. It smacks to me of wishful thinking in all honesty. The big danger had Iran taken Basra is it then puts the Kuwait city to Nasiriyah road in danger, and the majority of Iraqi supplies ran through that area behind the city. However to cut that road would have been very problematic for Iran. Basra lies atop a river delta with the Shatt-Al-Arab infront of it and the Basra canal behind it, Iran would need to take the city, then cross the Basra canal straight through another line of pre-prepared Iraqi defences, this time without the benefit of marshland or the proximity to their own country and then push another 20km further west to cut that road. This is over open ground which would suit them far less than either urban or marsh fighting. However that is the only plan they really had. So into the breach they went. Karbala 4  Note that the canal runs behind Basra as well as I outlined in the opening. With all that in mind Iran achieved possibly its greatest troop concentration of the war, they assembled 360’000 troops across the river from Basra and 40’000 troops in the Al-Faw peninsula. They had a bit of a kerfuffle about exactly how to do it, the regular army lead by General Shirazi advocated a large scale envelopment from the rear, avoiding the defences of Basra as much as possible and hoping to cut it off. However this was dismissed on the grounds of time, Khomeini had spoken. The Pasdaran leader Rezaee advocated a full-frontal assault of the Basra defences. They took their argument to the Supreme defence council and Rafsanjani came down on the side of the Pasdaran but incorporated some of the army’s ideas. It would be split into 2 different operations. The first phase was Karbala 4 and was to take place on Christmas eve 1986 (Not that that would be a date of particular significance for the combatants), the 21st infantry division was to cross again at the island of Um-Al-Rassas, supported by the specialist 41st assault engineer division who we introduced last time as Irans bridging specialists. However, signals decrypt meant the Iraqis were prepared for this, and had presighted their mortar and artillery on the target beach and had dug in machine gun posts all over the place. The 6th armoured division, lead by the generally capable General Rashid were held in reserve to attack any beachheads. So Iran landed in the night and were pinned down on the beachhead almost immediately, the Iranian General Kossari who was commanding the operation called for more reinforcements and adding to his 10’000 troops committed to the original assault another 30’000 Pasdaran fighters disembarked over the next 2 days. Iraq responded with heavy bombing of the bridging area, as 6th armoured started a sweep up the coast of the Shatt-Al-Arab and were essentially unstoppable in doing so. The scattered Iranian forces couldn’t bring enough to bear to oppose the Iraqi tanks and over 3 days of combat would completely destroy the Iranian positions, pushing them back across the river, inflicting heavy losses killing nearly 7’000 Iranians and an unknown but certainly large quantity of wounded. Iraq suffered only 800 dead in return with 2’000 wounded. It was an excellently executed defensive operation. However this was only a precursor of things to come. General Al-Duri who is in command of the northern edge of the fighting however now badly undermines Iraqi readiness in the area, he reported massive casualties to the Iranians in their attacks in an attempt to outshine General Rashid, claiming that his area had killed 10’000 Iranians, which lead to the perception in the Iraqi high command that Iran has suffered such casualties that they could not attack again for at least six months. This results in many Iraqi forces being sent on leave and a general relaxing of tensions in the Basra area. Khomeini is furious, and Rafsanjani is under heavy fire from his rivals, there was even danger of him being removed as commander in chief of the armed forces, but he would eventually secure Khomeinis support. Largely because he commanded the loyalty of much of the Pasdaran, and to remove him now would risk a large schism that would wreck any oncoming offensives. So the wheels of the next inexorable assault would continue to turn. Karbala 5 - The Mother of All battles  Iraqi defences in fish lake Plan of the battle. That is where that phrase, later popularised by Saddam in his description of gulf 1, originates, it would be coined by Khameini some time into the offensive itself. The plan with Karbala 5 was fairly sophisticated. Iraq had been digging in since 1984 in this area, they had minefields, bunkers, barbed wires, emplaced guns and a massive embankment around the area of Fish Lake and bits of the eastern segment of the Basra canal. These were all protecting the two main bridges over the Shatt-Al-Arab which lead into the heart of Basra’s urban centre. Irans plan was to circumvent as much of this as possible and try to catch the Iraqis off guard by going round the side. Iraqi 3rd corps responsible for the area was under the command of General al-Duri, the man whose name you may recognise as responsible for many of Iraqs early woes, a psychopath with indifferent command skills he maintained his position entirely through Saddams patronage and had survived a dozen cock ups who would have got any other man shot. And here he is, positioned right in the sector that Iran would attack. He had 7 divisions, 5 infantry, 1 mechanized and 1 armoured in the area, however 5 of those were deployed further north to guard against the original threat from the Iranian attack through the marshes, they were stuck the other side of a canal from Basra proper and particularly the area enclosed by the canal systems. Only two divisions were available in the Basra area directly. Iran decided to circumvent much of the Iraqi defences by attempting to cross Fish Lake. The assault began on January 8th with two Pasdaran divisions crossing the lake while one of Irans remaining armoured divisions began a diversionary attack on the 8th Iraqi Infantry division. While engaging Iranian tanks the Iraqi division was flanked by the amphibious attack via the lake, this caused a breakdown of the 8th division who retreated quickly to the north. The Pasdaran took control of the east side of the canal and immediately began preparations to cross, quickly establishing a pair beachhead of around a kilometre each on the other side of the canal. However they were prevented from advancing further by the Iraqi 5th Mechanized division. But they would sweep north causing the virtual disintegration of the 8th Infantry and capturing their General. Further south Iran pours three divisions into the town of Du’aiji. They run almost straight over the first line. The Iraqi commander was prepared for this but not the sheer scale of the attack, he had maybe 5-6’000 men against the Iranians nearly 40’000 and was forced relentlessly back to the town of Du’aji though maintained his retreat in good order, he was ordered to retreat across the canal by al-Duri and did so quickly, stopping the attacking Iranians with the aid of the artificial channel. This along with the containment of Iranian bridgeheads further north leads to the end of this phase of Karbala 5, however they have successfully circumvented about 4 layers of prepared Iraqi defences and destroyed an entire division. They would launch diversionary attacks elsewhere before continuing the assault.  An Iranian observer in the blasted palm groves of eastern Basra. At this point Saddam sacks al-Duri for letting himself get into this situation and appoints his successor General Jamal, a Shia native of Basra who swore to die rather than let his hometown fall to Iran. However he did this without consulting the general in overall command of the area General Dhannoun, his chief of military staff who took offense at his authority being so undermined, so Saddam sacked Dhannoun and sought volunteers to replace him. But nobody did, displaying perhaps a health desire to survive. Eventually he chose General Aziz, a man who had retired before the outbreak of the war but had displayed tenacity against the Kurds in the 70’s and summoned him to his palace to receive his orders, Aziz had been trained at Sandhurst and had a good reputation but would prove average at best. To respond to this Saddam ordered the evacuation of Basra, 850’000 of the cities 1 million inhabitants would leave over the coming months, the shelling was likely to get very intense as now all Iranian artillery was in range with a gap of around 8 miles between Iranian positions and the city. He also rushed the finest Republican Guard armoured division and for the preparation of a second line of defence along the Euphrates in the event of Basra falling. He also restarted the war of the cities on January 12th, ordering the IQAF to cease battlefield support and gulf attacks and to start to bomb cities. Perhaps not the best idea he ever had, however there would be intense bombing of over 30 Iranian urban centres including the cities of Tehran, Qom and Esfahan by long range Iraqi MiG-25’s and the border cities of Dezful, Ahwaz and Kerman Shah would be targeted by Iraqi Scuds. Iran promptly retaliated with their artillery against Basra and other border cities and missile attacks on Baghdad. Karbala 6 - Diversionary attack  Mohajer drone used by Iran. Iran arrayed 100’000 men to attack in the centre of Iraq at the town of Mandali outside Baghdad as a distraction, It also had 150’000 fresh troops ready to assault Basra itself. Directly following on from Karbala 5 on January 13th this began with the assault on Mandali. Iran committed 2 of its remaining armoured divisions to this attack with 5 other divisions in support, using 600 of its remaining 1’300 or so tanks in this attack. They also employed derivatives of Israeli drones for the first time, some of these had been retrieved by Hezbollah following the second Lebanese war and had been delivered and copied by Iran. Initial Iraqi defences were stretched thin in this sector, with 6 infantry divisions stretched over a wide front, many of whom could not redeploy as they would just leave a huge hole in the line of they did. However critically he did have use of two Armoured divisions, one of them a guards division as his mobile reserve. The Iranian attack fell on January 13th on a concentration of 3 Iraqi divisions who were holding the key high ground areas around the abandoned town of Mandali. They made good initial progress but were unable to take the town before Iraqi tanks arrived. This is one of the largest tank battles of the war with Iraq bringing 700 tanks, mainly T-72’s and T-62’s against Iran, who had 600 which were chiefly Type 59 with some more modern Type 69 tanks. However Iranian tankers badly lacked training over the preceding years with a shortage of tank shells meaning that some crews had fired maybe a dozen rounds before. Iranian tanks were savaged, losing nearly 200 tanks in the clashes. However, Iraq would overextend in its excitement into Iranian positions and would suffer similar losses to a hail of TOW and other associated missile fire which brought the battle to a grinding halt. However, at 1300 tanks in total involved it is one of the larger armoured clashes of the 20th century.  Iranian defensive positions around Mandali. Saddam would hold a conference in Baghdad to decide on the best response, he dispatched more reinforcements to Basra, two armoured and one mechanized division, The 5th Mechanized and the Medina Munawara Republican Guard armoured division successfully pushed the bridgeheads established on the other side of the canal near Tanuma back into the water, drowning many Pasdaran who couldn’t swim. The 3rd armoured attempted to push down the far side of the canal but made less progress. However the offensive was broadly successful, Saddam addressed Iran via a radio broadcast, renouncing his territorial claims and proposing a peace plan which was basically status quo, no renegotiation of the border. Tariq Aziz pushed this in Moscow and Taha Ramadan pushed it in Beijing, there were also efforts via the Organization of the Islamic Conference, to try and get the people with any influence over Iran to get them to accept it. However Iran would reject it utterly. Karbala 5 would roll again. Karbala 5 continued, then also 7,8,9 and 10.  The state of the various offensives across the front. So Iran would launch a massive assault against the Jassem canal, it was the shortest water gap and was the most lightly defended. 40’000 Iraqis of the 3rd corps under the command of General Jamal were in the triangle east of Basra to oppose the 150’000 Iranians that were assembled. Iraqi troops as outlined were at a decreased level of readiness as they did not expect an attack for some time. However, on January 29th, the attack came. A three-day constant assault fell on the canal front which inflicted brutal casualties on the attackers, however on February 1st Iran broke through the canal area forcing Iraq to fall back to their penultimate prepared defensive line. Iran was now in sight of the city. This retreat caused exaltation from Rafsanjani who pushed for more assaults, however now that Iraq had disengaged from close quarters fighting as the Iranians reorganized, they were free to shell at will with both conventional and chemical munitions, bringing their Il-76 napalm bombers to bear as well. If you look at the satellite view of the area even today the heaviness of the fighting has left a distinct mark on it with the outlines of Iraqi defensive positions and shell craters still clearly visible. The assault was however stopped on February 3rd. However, crossing the canal had rendered Irans logistics perilous, They had extended too far for it to be possible to launch an immediate attack and needed to resupply. Iraq would reinforce its own line by rotating out its exhausted infantry divisions and replacing them with reinforcements from 6th and 7th corps. Iran would receive fresh troops from a mass call up of Basijj militia to reinforce Pasdaran forces for one last big set of assaults, Khomeini himself would call on the 11th of February, the anniversary of the revolution, for all young Iranians to join the army and go to the front without delay. That assault would come on February 19th. The fresh waves of troops would drive the Iraqis out of their penultimate line into their ultimate line of defences. Adnan Khairallah, Defence Minister and one of the truly very capable Iraqi generals travelled to assist General Jamal in preparing the last line by lending his authority and expertise to the proceedings. General Aziz had proven too old for his post as chief of staff and vacillated, issuing no real orders. He would be quietly replaced soon with the also capable General Khazraji, he had proven himself as leader of 1st corps in the north of the country previously. However, on 23rd of February Iran would launch its last assault, at the end of their logistical tether and facing dug in tanks among the Iraqi trench lines, the Iranians were repulsed in a three-day running engagement where they failed to make significant progress leading Iran to eventually call an end to Karbala 5 and to stop to breathe. Iraq would employ this time well however and would be ready when they returned. During this period of rest Iran would launch Karbala 7, this attack fell in the north on March 3rd , it was a two division size assault with the support of the KDP. It initially went steadily but slowly, Iraqi forces had been stretched thin responding to Basra and the attacks in the centre. However, the Iranians got a little unlucky, Turkey had simultaneously launched a major offensive against the PKK and were nervous about Iranian activities in the area of operations. Turkey issued an ultimatum that they would not permit Iran to seize Kirkuk or Mosul, so the assault was stopped within sight of the city of Rawanduz in order to soothe Turkish nerves. Karbala 9 would also fall in the central area of Iraq near the Iranian city of Qasr-e-Shirin. Using 2 infantry divisions against the Iraqi 1 they tried to break through into the hilly area north of Baghdad, however the Iraqi division retreated in good order to pre-prepared positions further back and held without the need for further reinforcements which were all needed in Basra. Iran was truly preparing for their last offensive on Basra, Karbala 8. Their logistics were badly stretched, they were having trouble supplying troops the other side of the canal with food and water, let alone bullets and other vital supplies. Iraqi artillery was relentless in their harassment of Iranian positions. On April 6th three Pasdaran divisions of 40’000 men would attack the Iraqi lines once more, they ran straight into pre-sighted BM-21 and Katyusha rockets firing from the rear which broke up the attack, when they did successfully break through, they were immediately counterattacked by Iraqi tanks and pushed back over the line. Iran would attempt a chemical attack using phosgene gas, however Iraq was prepared, and this had little effect. Iraq would respond with heavy use of mustard gas which would bring the assault to an end. This three-month long series of battles would end on April 11th causing them nearly 120’000 casualties of which at least a third were KIA, a very high proportion as medical extraction was very hard to achieve. The Pasdaran had lost a quarter of their officer corps, particularly from their experienced amphibious units. Iraq had suffered 10’000 deaths with 30’000 wounded. There would be one last gasp, Karbala 10 in Kurdistan was an indifferent assault involving 3 divisions of Iranian regulars and the majority of PUK fighters attacked the cities of Sulaymaniyah and Halabja, however with little support they were easily repulsed and took only a few kilometres of territory. Iran had essentially run out of steam. Saddam was delighted, showering his generals in gifts and praise for their fantastic victory. Rafsanjani was embittered, having declared Iraq would be defeated by the end of March 1987. The remainder of the year would be fairly quiet with little activity outside of the gulf. Iran overplays its hand. With the failure of the last big push Iran is actually in some fairly serious trouble in early 1987. Pasdaran forces in Tehran have started protesting the regime, demanding an end to the war, supported in this by Ayatollah Montazeri, there are reports of cross border fraternization in quiet sectors. Iran quiets these problems by promoting many prominent Pasdaran figures and announcing an increase in the martyr’s family pension allowance. They also decided to try and win the war via attrition, provoking a widening of attacks on tanker traffic in order to try and get the Arab monarchies to pressure Iraq to stop attacking their oil traffic, they also planned to bully Kuwait via silkworm attack from the bottom end of the al-Faw peninsula. On land they intended to siege Basra and try to provoke an uprising in Kurdistan more generally. They have given up on the big push approach, it is costing them too many lives and their states stability will no longer stand it. However, this approach would backfire, bringing the USN among others into the gulf and putting an end to their ability to pressure the gulf monarchies monetarily at all. Iran would approach the USSR for improved relations but their continued support for the Mujahedin in Afghanistan along with their increased attacks in the gulf would aggravate them to such an extent that the USSR would directly court the gulf monarchies, selling them a significant quantity of BMP 2 and 3’s. They would also offer to transport Kuwaiti oil through the Iranian attacks, Iran would test this assumption by attacking the Soviet vessel Ivan Korotoyev, the Soviets responded by putting a dozen warships in the area and threatening severe retaliation which put an end to the Iranian activities. Iran would approach the US afterwards but were rebuffed, and their increased attacks on shipping and mining operations would eventually bring the US into the gulf in force. Development of Iraqi capabilities.  Iraqi MiG-29 Baghdad wants Iran to do exactly what it is about to do, provoke more interest in the Gulf among the west. They step up their attacks on Iranian oil export yet again, trying to harm their finances but also to push Iran into blocking the straits of Hormuz, necessitating the intervention of the great powers at that stage. They also begin planning to exploit Iran’s exhaustion to recapture their lost ground. Iraq would also approach the USSR and secure the purchase of 15 MiG-29’s, 30 Su-25’s and 40 SA-13 SAM’s and a significant quantity of spare parts. China delivered 4 Tu-16’s armed with the hardware necessary to launch silkworms, however these would prove less effective than the Exocet armed Mirages. Though they would nearly gently caress everything by attacking the USS Stark by accident in this period. Iraq now has almost parity in numbers with Iran, its army has swelled to 800’000 and most critically the Republican guard are now a very mobile and effective force. Road expansion has been under way for years and is now complete. Iraq had acquired 3000 tank transporter trailers and appropriate towing vehicles. This enabled them to shift the republican guard corps, now comprised of 6 highly mechanized divisions to any area on the Iraqi southern front within 48 hours with the completion of the 6-lane highway between Baghdad and Basra. They are starting to contemplate going on the offensive. War of the capitals, 1988 The war of the cities has been going off and on for some time now, however Iraq is about to do something that makes the Iranians start it off into its final, most vicious stage. The IQAF successfully struck the Tehran oil refinery on February 27th 1988 doing serious damage to it and hitting Irans economy again. Iran would retaliate by firing missiles at Baghdad hoping to provoke Saddam away from attacking their oil infrastructure. However they would get something more than they bargained for. Iraq had been working on modifying the Scud-B, doubling its range by halving its payload, creating the Al-Hussein missile. Saddam would respond by firing four missiles a day for the next 52 days at Tehran, He would also employ his stock of Tu-22 and MiG-25’s to keep up the pressure with forty air raids taking place on Tehran and other cities, losing 1 Tu-22 and 3 MiG-25’s to Iranian interceptors doing so. This sparked a fear of chemical attacks which lead to almost a third of Tehrans population fleeing to the countryside, including Khomeini who was evacuated to a clinic elsewhere. Iran would respond with two missiles a day at Baghdad, however the campaign would last until both sides were essentially out of ammunition. Iraq would fire a total of 193 missiles, all the larger Scud or Al-Hussein, Iran would fire 180 or so missiles, around 80 of which are the larger Scud and the remainder the Oghab, a smaller missile, equivalent of the FROG-7. This would end with both sides agreeing to stop on April 20th, after the UN secretary general brokered an agreement, but it was hardly a great achievement of peacemaking. Both sides had only single digits of missiles left. The Kurdish offensives - Al-Anfal and Halabja.  Ali Hassan al-Majd. Chemical Ali. It had taken years, but the PUK and the KDP were now at long last getting along, they had united with Iran in an effort to drive the Iraqis out, there was a combined force of around 30’000 kurdish fighters that conducted a half dozen serious raids against Kirkuk, Mosul, Erbil and Sulaymaniah. They even brought in the Syrian Kurds, the Kurdistan Democratic Socialist Party. However there was still an undercurrent of extreme tension in Kurdish affairs. But they had come together in a united front, this was dangerous for Iraq who to that point had believed that the Kurds would eventually come around, but in April they would narrowly miss killing Saddam in an attack on his convoy, killing 11 of his entourage but missing him. Saddam would retaliate with a brutal campaign against the Kurds. He appointed Ali Hassan al-Majid (Chemical Ali) as governor of Kurdistan and gave him authority over the two-army corps in the area. They immediately established a cordon area near the border beyond which Kurds were not permitted to live. He issued a directive saying that any Kurd who was arrested by the security services for any reason would be executed after interrogation. He had 250’000 men under his command for the operation to enforce this. Al-Anfal which began after Majids appointment in early 1987. Though it was building on the fighting that had been brewing for years, Saddam had not been tolerant of Kurdish fighters before this point but it had been far less systematic and vicious. These soldiers would rampage through the countryside, destroying Kurdish villages from the air and deporting their inhabitants to swampy areas in the centre of Iran, anyone with a weapon was executed. The teaching of Kurdish was forbidden in schools and anyone speaking it in public was subject to imprisonment. The death of any Iraqi soldier would be met with the execution of a dozen Kurdish civilians. The PUK was hit particularly hard by this. Turkey also helped by conducting a simultaneous campaign against the PKK which limited the room of Kurdish forces to flee over the border. This campaign would continue and would destroy active Kurdish resistance in the area for the remainder of 1987. As 1988 arrived however, Iran returned in force. They mobilized 19 divisions and around 350’000 men, and intended to destroy Iraqs electrical generation capacity in the Kurdistan region, to destroy their oil industry by starving it of power by taking their two largest hydroelectric dams at Dukan and Darbandikham. Iraq faced them with 15 divisions, unfortunately one of their two corps was commanded by General al-Duri. The Iranian assault commenced on March 14th where they overran the Iraqi infantry division guarding Halabja and pushed hard for the Darbandikhan Dam but they were stopped by heavy air attack and reinforcements arriving from the south. Two Pasdaran divisions quickly overran Iraqi forces around the Dukan dam as the brigade assigned to them pulled out rather than be destroyed. A crime for which the commander of that brigade was shot, along with dozens of other lower level offices. Al-Duri however escaped unharmed once more. Saddam then ordered Chemical Ali to raze the city of Halabja with chemical weapons, it was a major center of Iranian and Kurdish soldiers, and as for the Kurdish civilians who lived there, they were to die as well. The IQAF dropped several dozen containers of napalm surrounding the city, setting it and its major roads out alight. Then crop duster type planes went overhead spraying the city with mustard and nerve agents, with the city then being shelled for the next 6 hours. The death toll is around 5’000 from this attack and it caused Tehran to pause in response to its sheer brutality as they were concerned about employing mass formations in the face of such liberal use of CW’s. They would dig in around the ground they took and await the Iraqi response. Turkey also threatened Tehran to stop its offensive in Kurdistan or else be subject to embargo which doubtless also played into the decision. They have successfully taken one of Iraq’s major hydroelectric plants which would cause electricity shortages, particularly in the north, and around 600 square km of land. This would however strip much of the rest of the front of personnel which left them vulnerable. Assault on Al-Faw - Ramadan al-Mubarak (Blessed Ramadan)  So Iran’s plan has been to try and bleed Iraq up in the highlands of Kurdistan, they have taken some critical points, particularly the major hydroelectric dam at Dukan. This is dangerous but not yet actually critical for Iraq. Their power grid still functions, there is a reduction in oil production to compensate for that, but they still hold Dardanbikan and their credit line is still good. So they decline to rise to the Iranian bait and fight where they are at a disadvantage. Following a meeting in Saddams palace in Baghdad they intend to retake the Basra section. This will have several advantages for them. Iran has stripped their front bare to launch that last offensive up north and they do not have the same capability to redeploy quickly that Iraq enjoys. They will be able to compensate for the drop of oil production by retaking the pipeline section in Al-Faw which leads to Um-Qasr, their export port, which enables them to begin export by sea again. By recognising the Iranian plan however, it presents them with a very good opportunity. It can perform its own deception operation. It increases radio traffic artificially in the Kurdistan area and Adnan Khairallah conducted a very publicised tour of the northern front, accompanied by any journalist he could find and actively did not deny questions speculating about an offensive in Kurdistan. Iraq would step up their light reconnaissance in this area. While this was going on, they quietly manoeuvred 5 of the 6 Republican guard divisions down to Basra and prepared the troops of the 3rd Corps and brought in troops from the central 4th Corps reserve to accompany them in an attack on Al-Faw. Iraq would array nearly 100’000 men, 2’500 AFV’s and 1’400 artillery pieces. Facing them were two beaten up Iranian infantry divisions of around 20’000 men, 100 AFV’s and 150 artillery pieces. Iraq would time its offensive to fall on the first day of Ramadan to coincide with the regular rotation of troops out of the frontline to permit observance of Ramadan. Iraqi deception operations were so successful that these rotations were going ahead as planned.  KS-14 Kedge missile. Their plan was fairly simple, attack along the coast road and the Shatt-Al-Arab to meet in the rear and encircle the Iranians on the peninsula and destroy them. General Rashid was given command of the river assault, commanding 5 regular Iraqi divisions, General al-Rawi was given command of the operations and also the 5 Republican guards divisions who were to attack down the coast road. Iraq assembled a huge stockpile of chemical weapons which hit Iranian positions on April 17th at 4.30, shortly after the call to prayer. The Iraqi army was hot on the heels of the attack and immediately broke through in short order. Unfortunately, further chemical attacks on Iranian rear echelons were affected by a wind change which blew them back on to the advancing Iraqis and disorganized their assault, killing 200 and wounding a further 800. This plan was accompanied by the Iraqi’s using stand off munitions. Su-22’s carrying the recently acquired As-14 Kedge missile loitered out of range of Iranian air defence while Mirages carrying laser designation and ECM pods illuminated the Iranian pontoon bridges and several missiles struck them, managing what conventional bombing had failed to do so far and destroying several segments of it at once. This made rapid repair impossible and cut off the retreat of forces on Al-Faw. They also hit the two major bridges over the Karun river behind Khorramshahr which cut the reinforcement routes at another point further back. Iraq managed an advance of 20 miles on the first day and had completely taken the peninsula before the end of April 18th. They had inflicted 5’000 dead and captured 10’000 prisoners along with all tanks and canons remaining on the island for paltry losses of their own. They had also captured intact the entirety of the Iranian silkworm battery at the tip of the peninsula. In two days of assault they had completely undone the entirety of the Iranian assaults of the previous year. Saddam would visit Mecca to give very public thanks to god for his victory. Iran was stunned and had lost much of their hold over Kuwait with the loss of that silkworm launching point. However, they would launch a Scud-B in a fit of pique to try and retain their hold over Kuwait diplomatically. But the spell was about to be shattered entirely. Further Iraqi offensives - Tawakalna ala Allah (Trust in God) offensives.  Barzargan. Rafsanjani was in trouble, his government nearly fell in the election of May, with the Association of Combatant Clerics taking 60% of seats in the Iranian parliament. The fractured nature of the Iranian parliament meant that he had to make many more compromises and deals to stay in power. Ayatollah Montazeri was running cover for the peace party lead by Barzargan as part of his ongoing power struggle against Rafsanjani and Khameini, they would attack Rafsanjani personally for being responsible for the current state of the war, and he would retaliate by arresting 40 of Barzargans supporters, but couldn’t touch Barzargan himself due to Montazeri. Rafsanjani would replace the Chief of Staff of the Iranian army General Sohrabi with General Shahbazi. Sohrabi had been very effective at his role, he hadn’t managed to make the Pasdaran and regular army play nice all the time but he had gotten them to coordinate well enough to pull off their particularly brilliant attacks of 86 and 87. He had taken the post in 1984 when cooperation between the two was still completely non-existent. However, someone needed to take the fall. Shabazi was not a brilliant soldier, he had largely avoided front line posts and had spent the last 2 years as Khomeinis military advisor rendering him both impeccably politically connected and willing to suborn his pride to the ultimate goal of deflecting blame for the defeat away from the Ayatollahs. And those defeats would come thick and fast. Saddam, riding high on his victories would redeploy forces from Al-Faw to the area east of Basra, 150’000 men and 3’000 AFV’s and 1’500 artillery pieces would fall upon the 50’000 Iranians in the area with their 90 AFV’s and 150 artillery pieces. This offensive would take place on May 25th, a scant month after the last one. The Iranians were surprised but resisted heavily, The Iraqi general would employ large quantities of tabun nerve agent which caused havoc among the Pasdaran forces in the area who were still sorely lacking in comprehensive protective equipment. The IRIAF attempted to intervene, however the IQAF’s new MiG-29’s would make an appearance and drive them off in short order. In the first day of the assault the Iranians had been driven out of their positions to a depth of 10km, the next day they would flee all the way to the border, a simultaneous assault was taking place in the marshes to the north as the Iranians were also driven out of large areas of the marshland. Iraq would push into Iran itself taking the town of Shalamcheh which enabled them to threaten Khorramshahr.  Dukan dam in Kurdistan. Iran would attempt a counterattack against Shalamcheh on June 13th, employing 15’000 Pasdaran and 100 tanks they would temporarily break through into the town past the Iraqi infantry divisions guarding it. However the Republican guard armoured divisions behind the line swiftly counterattacked and drove the Iranians off. Iraq would take this opportunity to launch a small-scale offensive which retook the Dukan dam in the north, along with another set of small attacks focused around the ruins of Halabja. Though those attacks were repulsed they served their purpose of keeping Iranian eyes on Kurdistan and to pin down troops deployed there holding Iraqi territory. The Iraqi high command would agree in conference to focus their efforts in the South and Centre where their forces were at their most effective and to remain on the defensive in Kurdistan as much as is possible, excluding ongoing efforts against the Kurds. To that end they planned to resecure the Majnoon islands in operation Tawakalna ala Allah 2. They would launch an assault on Mehran on June 18th using the NLAI, or national Liberation Army of Iran, the standing army wing of the Peoples Mujahedin (MEK). This was a 20’000 strong formation of Iranian exiles, mainly Arabs. They were equipped reasonably well with light weapons and armoured vehicles, and alongside elements of an Iraqi armoured division they would overrun the 10’000 strong Pasdaran defenders of the area and drove twelve miles deep into Iranian territory. Iran would redeploy its southern reserves to that area in preparation to retake it, leaving Majnoon vulnerable with only 40’000 men there and few reserves.  The assault began on June 25th with 160’000 Iraqis involved, Saddam would send his armoured divisions supported by paratroopers deployed by helicopter to successfully encircle the entire marshland area which they achieved by June 28th. Cutting off the retreat of the forces in the marshes who were subjected to heavy chemical and artillery attack, their morale shattered, and they fled, inflicting 11’000 casualties and capturing 4’000, the units involved had disintegrated completely and would largely disappear into the Iranian landscape. On a roll however Saddam would not stop there. Chronologically at this point Iran Air flight 655 would be shot down by the USS Vincennes that I have covered in depth elsewhere, but that would drive home the fact to Iran that literally nobody was on their side anymore. Saddam would launch his third operation less than a month later on July 12th, this was targeting the Iranian city of Dehloran in the central area, employing 140’000 men that he had redeployed from the south, This involved 5 of the 6 Republican guard divisions, including both the armoured divisions, and 6 regular infantry divisions, they were facing four understrength Iranian divisions of 40’000 men. This was originally intended to resecure Iraqi oil fields that had been held since 1982 however their attack took them deep into Iran, they seized the town of Dehloran as the Iranian armed forces routed under intense Iraqi pressure. Three of the divisions were completely destroyed with 10’000 casualties and 5’000 captured with the remaining soldiers largely vanishing into the Iranian countryside. They had also lost huge amounts of equipment, losing nearly 600 AFV’s and 300 artillery pieces. In the entire Khuzestan area Iran had maybe 200 tanks remaining now, facing against the Iraqi’s ability to seemingly endlessly redeploy and push with the full 1000 strong armoured strength of the Republican Guard at every opportunity. The Iraqi formation of the Republican Guards as a specialised highly mechanized force that could redeploy rapidly and create a push in any zone with only short preparation was bearing results beyond the dreams of Saddam and these offensives could contribute massively to their reputation, which was not entirely unearned. Iran seeks peace At this stage Saddam threatens to take the entirety of Khuzestan if Iran does not retreat from Kurdistan. Iran has to take this very seriously and calls an all hands meeting. Khomeini while he is too ill to attend the meeting explicitly instructs them that no option is off the table and they should discuss matters in the interests of the Islamic republic, making the very pointed comment that religious principles may have to be suspended to protect the nation. Taking stock, they have lost 6 of their divisions in 3 months, they are now outnumbered by Iraq and have put up no more than token resistance against them. The Pasdaran are protesting openly in the streets. Their bank account is dry, their ability to attack in the gulf is gone with a massive western naval presence in the area, the Iraqi airforce now has the technological edge with the introduction of the MiG-29 and the compromised performance of their F-14’s at this stage. At the end of the meeting held on July 14th to 15th Rafsanjani would announce the unilateral withdrawn from Iraqi Kurdistan which started the next day. Rafsanjani would visit the Ayatollah and place himself at his mercy, Khomeini would decide to take all the blame for the failure on himself to shield Rafsanjani and Khameini. He wanted Iran to remain as it was governmentally and those two had proven the most reliable of his proteges. Montazeri was out of favour but still influential. His speech would come on July 20th. Saddam would dictate his terms which were as follows: 1: Direct negotiations between Iran and Iraq. 2: Immediate UN lead cleanup of the Shatt-Al-Arab 3: A guarantee of free navigation in the Persian Gulf 4: An immediate end to attacks on all maritime traffic 5: Exchange of prisoners. He would reciprocate by withdrawing his own forces back to the international border, however peace would not come quite yet. Iraq would announce that offensive operations would continue until the Iranians intentions were confirmed, they were taking the opportunity to get a last few kicks in while they could. They orchestrated an aerial ambush over Kharg using their MiG-29’s which destroyed 2 F-14’s and 1 F-4 and convinced the IRIAF to suspend operations. The war had reduced them to 8 operational F-14’s, 20 F-4’s and 20 F-5’s remaining. The UN would attempt to start negotiations in New York on July 20th, inviting both regimes to come, however Iran refused to negotiate directly with Iraq, claiming that they saw Saddams regime as illegitimate. Iraq would respond by launching another offensive, Tawakalna ala Allah 4 was to take place on July 22nd would comprise the bulk of Iraq’s armoured might, all Republican Guard armoured forces and available tanks from other sectors were committed in the central and southern zone for a total of 2’000 tanks and 3’000 other AFV’s. This quickly overran Iranian positions which were sparsely occupied, Iraq quickly advancing 30 miles into Iran taking Qasr-e-Sirin and Sar-e-Pol-e-Zahab in the center, and in the south they took Hoveyzeh and Hamid, pushing to the banks of Karun and threatening Ahwaz, they captured 5’000 Iranians and caused the disintegration of two Iranian divisions.  Kermanshah and its relative position to Baghdad. However as negotiations began Saddam would seek to rid himself of a troublesome roadblock that might derail negotiations by their presence, the NLAI forces, or MEK, were sent to attack Kermanshah, they advanced rapidly nearly 60 miles against minimal resistance, however Iran panicked that this would set off a general insurrection again and launched a massive counterattack of around 80’000 soldiers, which were ordered to take no prisoners. The IRIAF would cause heavy damage with their attack helicopters against the NLAI armoured vehicles, Iraq would withhold air support and left them high and dry, they would be encircled and destroyed en masse. Strafed heavily from the air the NLAI were finished, 5’000 of them would die and many more would be wounded or captured and subsequently executed. Iranian actions were egregious to the extent where Montazeri, who had been in the Shahs prisons alongside many of the MEK, would protest it and criticise Khomeini for not stopping it. This put an end to the power struggle between him and Rafsanjani and Khomeini, he was ignominiously sidelined from this point onwards. Saddam would intensify bombing against Iranian oil installations, causing only moderate damage but underlining his point and Iran would at last agree to direct negotiations with Iraq under heavy pressure from the USSR. Saddam would announce the ceasefire so long as Tehran agreed to his terms and Iraq would retain its navigation rights on the Shatt-al-Arab. No mention was made of changing the border arrangement and so Saddam openly accepted a complete return to status quo, including the Algiers accord of 1975. After 8 years of incredibly bloody war that was started by him for the express purpose, in part, of redressing that very agreement they were back where they started. Iran accepted his speech and combat would come to an end. The ceasefire would come into force on August 20th 1988, Iraq would withdraw from where it had occupied and the two sides would eventually come to accept UN security council resolution 619. This would set up a UN observer group headed by Yugoslav General Slavko Jovic and Swedish civilian observer Jan Eliasson. This was a 26 nation group comprised of Non Arab, non permanent security council members. It would endure in its mission of observing the ceasefire until February 1991 and Gulf 1. Costs and casualties Both sides would inflate their casualty numbers for political gains, it would take a very long time to establish more reliable estimates. Iraq claimed 350’000 dead, Iran 600’000. More modern estimates place it at 180’000 Iraqis and 500’000 Iranian dead, with 1’500’000 long term wounded and maimed in combat. There are estimated to be 4-5’000 Iraqis who would die in Iranian captivity, total POW numbers were 45’000 Iranians and 70’000 Iraqis, those numbers are somewhat vague as many thousands refused to return to either side for fear of execution or disgrace. Around 100’000 of those totals were civillians who would die in the war, but only a small percentage as a result of strategic bombing by either side. 12’000 of those were Kurdish civilians killed by both sides in large numbers, 69’000 Iranian and 19’000 Iraqi civilians. The war would reduce the populations of both nations by around 1-1.5% over the course of the war, compared to 4% for WW1 over a shorter timespan. This disparity is due in part to the very long periods between offensives and large period of static warfare, as two nations with relatively poor industrial bases had to wait and build up the supplies to attack. It was a slow grinding war in which both sides really grappled to gain any advantage. Material losses would be very high, 4'600 tanks, 4'400 other armoured vehicles, 1650 artillery pieces, 485 planes, 465 helicopters and 30 warships along with 72 commercial ships of varying sizes were destroyed. As I mentioned previously the total cost of the war would be around $1.1tn to both belligerents. Continued in post 2. Polyakov fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Oct 16, 2019 |
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Oct 16, 2019 17:52
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Continued from previous. Matters outstanding Iraq  Saddam would immediately proclaim a great victory, one that would be remembered in 1’000 years as the greatest victory over the historic Persian foe. He would order the immediate construction of the triumphal arch while he sent Tariq Aziz to finalize the peace in Geneva. He would take the moment to enact his revenge on the Kurds, undertaking massive military operations in the area and driving 100’000 refugees out of Kurdistan to neighbouring countries. These operations would finally end in September 1988. Adnan Khairallah, minister of defence, would die on May 5th 1989 in a “tragic helicopter explosion” in Kurdistan. He was effective, charismatic and popular. It seems most likely that Saddams sons rather than Saddam himself were responsible. He was at this stage the man most likely to contest Saddams legacy as leader of Iraq and they wanted him out of the way. Iraq was in trouble, its army had ballooned in size to 800’000 men, a fourfold increase over the 8 years of war. Iraq’s oil revenue had decreased by 50% in the same period, and now the war was over the loan cash would stop coming in. Saddam was faced with a no-win situation, he could try to demobilize which would likely create mass unemployment and social unrest associated with it, he couldn’t really afford to pay for their retraining and reintegration into society and so he would place a sudden and significant shock on the Iraqi nation by doing so. There was certainly endemic mental health damage to many of them that was poorly understood and cared for at the time. His other option was to maintain his military and find a way to pay for it. He would opt for the second option. Saddam had ambitions of regional leadership, their standing army now outnumbering the entire GCC by a factor of three and was far more effective and efficient. The GCC would slide deeper into the Wests orbit to defend them. Saddam would believe himself well educated in military affairs and had begun to equate stubbornness and the will to win with success. He would make the fateful decision to invade Kuwait without burdening himself with military advice on the matter. Emir Jaber of Kuwait would insist on maintaining low oil prices which was ruining Iraq and did not write off Iraqi debt which was eyewatering. The KSA would forgive Iraqi debt simply as the costs of doing business. The last Iraqis would withdraw from Iran on 20th of August 1990, 18 days after Saddam invaded Kuwait, many sycophants had crept back in after their well-deserved firing and were telling him of his own genius that clouded Saddams often questionable judgement. The consequences of the war however were obscured by Saddams swagger, much of the best and brightest of Iraq’s youth had been killed or maimed by the war. The Iraqi army had scraped up all available manpower and as a result was less impressive in its readiness for war in terms of its soldiers education and health than might otherwise be expected. Many of them were not exactly eager to continue the fight but saw no other option. Saddams position was secure and there was nobody to tell him no. He ensured great central control over his forces which is precisely where the Coalition would hit him hardest in 1991. Iran  Salman Rushdie’s book Iran would return to lick its wounds and would turn inwards, deeper into its fanaticism. It would not risk the peace with Iraq again however, Khomeini would issue a Fatwa in early 1989 for the death of Salman Rushdie (writer of the satanic verses) which would drive a wedge between them and the west, this was probably done to provide a new external enemy to distract from the convulsions of demobilisation and rebuilding the nation. It would force Iran even deeper into isolation for years. Khomeini himself was to die in June of 1989. At this stage Rafsanjani and Khameini would split the kingdom, Rafsanjani would relinquish the post of Supreme Leader to Khameini despite his own very strong claim to that position, he had greater credentials and a stronger base of support. He would decide to prefer the presidency, believing that his stronger position would enable him to sideline Khameini, who lacked Khomeinis charisma in Rafsanjanis view and would let Rafsanjani take a much greater role in shaping Iranian affairs directly. They would dispose of the position of Prime Minister, tightening Islamic control over the nation even further and ensuring Iran would remain the Islamic Republic of Iran. The previous Prime Minister, Mousavi would fade into obscurity until he returned in 2009 to contest the presidency. The war would result in the crushing of most major dissent, the country had started as all revolutions do with a hundred factions with a hundred differing aims. The hardline Islamists would beat out the nonreligious element lead by Bani-Sadr and Bazargan, the more liberal Islamists lead by Montazeri, the socialists and communists (MEK, Tudeh and Peykar), the Kurdish, Balochi and Azeri seperatists. However, they had made something of a rod for their own back, the Pasdaran were a state unto themselves and would not be dislodged, unrest among the veterans of the war for the power held directly by the clergy and the bazaar would lead to the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad running on a populist ticket in 2005. Iran would not and still has not emerged back into the world stage properly for many different reasons. The structure of their state is on a hair trigger where they will often be compelled to massively overreact to slights and setbacks which makes the process of normalisation with them deeply challenging. That is really based in the radical tools employed to win the power struggle by these two men, among many others. Over time Rafsanjani and Khameini would fall out over a myriad issues, with Khameini referring to him as a traitor on more than one occasion. This would end with Rafsanjanis death of natural causes in 2017. Iran would focus on economic recovery and rebuilding its oil industry with extensive aid from the USSR who appreciated the in for as long as the USSR were able to exist, coming in to assist them with their nuclear power program and rebuilding oil infrastructure as well as large quantities of high-tech arms. Concluding remarks. The Iran-Iraq was is one of the most futile endeavours in war. 8 years of fighting for both sides to end back where they started. There was no good solution achievable the second that Saddam invaded. The amount of hammering it took to get an Iran even on its knees as it was at the end of the war to even agree to meet is just staggering. There was realistically only one end other than the one that was achieved, that of staying back and letting Iraq lose by cutting off arms supplies, Iran was never going to accept peace. Iraq would not be permitted to collapse for a wide variety of reasons, too many powerful nations had too much invested in containing Iran by propping up Iraq. The constant use of terrorism was not a complete novelty in war but it certainly in my view really created the conditions where that would continue. We had mass attacks with hundreds of dead in Mecca and the cities of the gulf, bombs exploding on the streets of France, Invasion of the Iranian embassy, the Beirut bombings which was probably one of the most traumatic events for US power in the area, dozens of assassinations on the streets of both European and Iranian cities and attacks of all kinds in Lebanon. From a purely cynical point of view, everyone who wasn’t involved in the fighting won by the war dragging on as long as it did; as was expressed by Kissinger at the time, "it was a pity that both sides couldn’t lose", a typically heartless but also probably accurate expression of the view of most nations. The expected result for the majority of nations in the event of Iraqi defeat was that Iran would carve out a Shia state comprising most of Iraq and encourage unrest and further war throughout the area. It was pretty much their stated aim at the time in the creation of a wider Shia or set of Shia states which has shown itself very willing to export terrorism and would only increase in its capability to do so. In my view this probably ends in another new war between KSA and Iran. Navel gazing counterfactuals aside. Both sides seemed determined to outdo each other in their incompetence. They must accept their share of the blame for the utterly staggering amounts of dead Iranians that they caused by continuing to push their war aims. This is not to say they should have just accepted driving Iraq off, but Saddams increasing desperation for a deal throughout the war to me indicates that there was an option for significant reparations to be extracted for them. But they wanted to trigger a general Shia uprising and just kick off with everyone in the middle east like a caricature of a drunkard in town on a friday night and would not relinquish that aim for years, and they were willing to throw away lives in staggering numbers to do i. Iran ultimately were the ones that ultimately turned it into a war of annihilation, they sought the complete destruction of the Iraqi state, Iraq may have started it but they didn’t seek to destroy the Iranian state in the same way. Iraq in turn would resort to eye wateringly brutal measures to win on the battlefield, normalizing chemical weapon use on the battlefield and carrying out attacks with them on civilian populations against the Kurds in the north, not the first historical incident of that, but certainly the first that was widely publicised. It thought it could steal a quick victory against a disorganized foe and instead got a war that would be the starting point of the chain of events that would be the end of Saddams regime. The consequences of the war have really shaped how the middle east is today, the majority of conflicts were created or exacerbated to their current state by the whole affair. The Sunni-Shia split, which had been at a low ebb for quite some time before the war. Arab nationalism as typified by Nasser and Saddam would lose its influence to be replaced by the ideology of religious conflict fed by the Ayatollahs in Iran and the Salafists in the KSA pitted against each other. That split would worsen again and again before really boiling over in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Lebanon particularly has been utterly devastated by the war between Israel and the Iranian backed Hezbollah which was created in this very war. The conflict in Lebanon threatens to spill out everywhere around Israel constantly; not to put the blame for this entirely on Iran I hasten to add, Israel has a lot to answer for but that isn’t a topic relevant to address in great detail at this time. The Kurdistan issue really became insuperable as a result of the actions of the belligerents and Turkey in this time, the history of the PKK and Turkey I haven’t really touched on, but the militarisation and devastation of the area lead to more intense and long lasting fighting in all 3 nations, and Turkey views all Kurdish militia as linked to the PKK. There had been long running low level conflict in the Kurdish areas of Iran and Iraq but it was really kicked into high gear by the events of the war. The drawing of the US in particular, deeper into the Middle East was caused by the GCC’s very rational fear of what Iran would do to them, along of course with Gulf 1. However, the specifics of that are for another time. I’ve enjoyed doing this, I hope you all have too, it was something that I really felt was under-explored and seldom mentioned when I started it and I found it fascinating. I didn’t really set out to do much more than present the factual events as I could confidently establish them. The events of it are also at the start of the era of wide scale obfuscation and propaganda and so are often wrong or intentionally misrepresented, particularly the actions of Iran in the modern day became a lot clearer to me why they do what they do as a result of this all. I will present my main reading list for your comfort and convenience if you want to explore. A bunch of stuff hasn’t made it onto here because I used it more sparsely. I’m going to take a break and do something not at all to do with war for a while before perhaps considering doing this again. Potential topics include: Boxer rebellion leading into the Russo Japanese war, The Yugoslav wars, Gulf 1 or more of a deep look at the Holodomor and Soviet famines in the central republics. All very uplifting topics to be sure. Bibliography. Iran-Iraq: Pierre Razoux. The Iran Iraq War: A military and strategic history: Murray and Woods. The Iran Iraq War: Ephraim Karsh. The Twilight War: David Crist. Immortal: Steven Ward. Saddams Generals: Woods, Murray, Nathan, Sabara and Venegas. The Saddam tapes: Woods, Palkki and Stout. America’s first clash with Iran: Lee Allen Zatarain. The Pasdaran: Emmanuele Ottolenghi. Vanguard of the Imam: Afshon Ostovar. Polyakov fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Nov 12, 2019 |
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Oct 16, 2019 17:52
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Polyakov posted:Both sides seemed determined to outdo each other in their incompetence. A new thread title, surely? Thanks for those excellent posts.
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Oct 16, 2019 18:13
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Amazing series on the Iraq-Iran conflict. Can you speak more to the increased effectiveness of the Republican Guard formations? Was it changes in tactics? leadership? equipment? that made them better as the war went on?
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Oct 16, 2019 18:20
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Polyakov posted:Iran-Iraq War Series Absolutely fantastic series of posts, thank you. This was a conflict I (and I suspect many people from the west) knew almost nothing about, despite it's huge importance to understanding the current state of affairs in Iran, and how Iraq ended up igniting the Gulf War. Given that the Syrians supported Iran in the war, did Saddam ever threaten Hafez al-Assad?
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Oct 16, 2019 18:43
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Cessna posted:A new thread title, surely? thanks polyakov
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Oct 16, 2019 18:55
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Saint Celestine posted:Amazing series on the Iraq-Iran conflict. Can you speak more to the increased effectiveness of the Republican Guard formations? Was it changes in tactics? leadership? equipment? that made them better as the war went on? Its some combination of the above. The Republican Guard as we would come to know it didnt really exist until the mid-war, i think they had 3 brigades or so at wars outbreak and were mainly there as your standard presidential guard. However as the war went on this would expand to 6 divisions and the best and the brightest would be recruited into it, paid better and equipped better in order to ensure their loyalty and make them the most effective. They were the designated rapid manouever group that Iraq needed in order to respond to Iranian attacks anywhere on the front so by definition they were the ones who were best taught to use those tactics and received the most modern tanks and APC's. This was done in the context of the Iraqis learning how to conduct a mobile defence over the course of the war rather than just digging in hard and praying which reflects earlier approaches. Solaris 2.0 posted:Absolutely fantastic series of posts, thank you. This was a conflict I (and I suspect many people from the west) knew almost nothing about, despite it's huge importance to understanding the current state of affairs in Iran, and how Iraq ended up igniting the Gulf War. Kind of, Assad and Saddam had fallen out very publically in 1979. Iraq and Syria were friends-ish-kinda before that, Syria being ostracised by the oil monarchies for their secular repuiblican nature. However Syria needed help because it was poor as poo poo and had no oil to crutch on and was knee deep with the war in Lebanon against Israel. There was an attempt to create a union of the two nations in the 70's but when Saddam took power in 1979 he denounced Syria for a plot to assasinate him that didnt exist. So Syria needed friends and found that in Iran, this enabled Syria to feel protected against Iraqi aggression and also to aid their continuing war against Israel. Syria would violate Iraqi airspace and get into a bit of a fight in the midwar to provide an excuse to close the Iraqi pipeline that ran through the nation which angered Saddam greatly but realistically Iraq never had the muscle to credibly threaten Syria after the war began. There were credible allegations of an anti Assad coup in 1982 backed by Iraq and both sides would rail at each other constantly throughout the war, a lot of tapes of Iraqi meetings about Syria boil down to them saying "loving Assad amirite". Or more eloquently "The Syrian position is conspiratorial and malicious which has been expressed in their spiteful acts". Incidentally Saddam would take a similar view on Gadaffi.
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Oct 16, 2019 19:11
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https://twitter.com/TaskandPurpose/status/1184531017044054017 Brotherhood of Arms
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Oct 16, 2019 19:12
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Polyakov posted:There was an attempt to create a union of the two nations in the 70's but when Saddam took power in 1979 he denounced Syria for a plot to assasinate him that didnt exist. Wasn't thwarting the attempt at unification one of the main reasons Sadaam decided to take power in the first place?
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Oct 16, 2019 19:30
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Epicurius posted:Wasn't thwarting the attempt at unification one of the main reasons Sadaam decided to take power in the first place? It was certainly one of the reasons, though negotiations would continue for a short while after he took power, i believe that it broadly broke down due to Sadams firm belief that Iraq should be the central leader of the Arab world after Sadat screwed the pooch and therefore it was only natural that he should be the senior partner in the coalition. Syria told him to get stuffed. There was a bit of an idealogical split in the Iraqi Ba'athist party as to how best proceed in diplomatic quarters, where Saddams predecessor al-Bakr wanted to approach Syria, Saddam wanted to approach the gulf monarchies.
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Oct 16, 2019 19:40
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Excellent posts, thank you for them. My personal vote once you finish your break is Holdomor, internet Stalinist have been denying it happened
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Oct 16, 2019 20:15
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boat video game guy - i think you are having some confusion about heavy and light cruisers, which makes sense, because it's a bit confusing. you seem to be focusing on heavy cruisers. Pre-WWI there was a substantial difference between Light Armored Cruisers and Armored Cruisers. Let's take the Arethusa class light armored cruiser, and the last British first-class armored cruiser, the Minotaur Minotaur displaces 14,000 tons, main armament of 9.2" and 7.5" guns, with 3-8" of armor depending on location, 23 knots. Arethusa displaces 3,600 tons, main armament of 6" and 4" guns, with 0-3" of armor depending on location, 30 knots. These are wildly different ships with different intended roles. Arethusa is designed to lead destroyers and to scout for the battle fleet. Minotaur is designed to kill other cruisers and to lie in the line of battle. Now move to interwar Treaty era. The heavy cruiser and light cruiser are both derived from Arethusa. Both are fixed at 10,000 tons maximum displacement. The only difference is that the Treaty counts 8" gun cruisers differently than 6" gun cruisers. Heavy cruisers were restricted in terms of number of hulls and total displacement, and light cruisers were not - although they still had to come in under 10,000 tons. As a result the heavy cruiser is essentially the same hull form with 8" guns, and similar armament and motive power. The IJN even designed the Mogami class as light cruisers and then replaced the turrets with 8" guns afterwards. The ships are basically designed to do the same stuff (fleet scout, show the flag, etc) If you are focusing on WWII-ish era, it makes more sense for you to start with Light Armored Cruisers, and then move in to Cruisers generally. This allows the player to use basically the same hull form to either pursue heavy or light gun armament, much like navies actually did at the time. Heavy Cruisers were not superior to Light Cruisers in actuality. Focusing on the heavy cruiser doesn't let you do much fun stuff with automatic and semiautomatic guns, which were the big advantage of lighter weapons. edit: 8" gun rates of fire for the US navy were like 3 rounds per minute, vs 10 for even non-automated 6" guns.
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Oct 16, 2019 21:12
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I read that following the capture of Vicksburg, because of European imports the Union captured thousands of rifles that were superior to those in Grant’s army and he had his troops replace their weapons with better choices. Were there other examples from the Civil War where the Confederate equipment was more advanced or better technology than the Union’s? Related question, could a US soldier in Vietnam (or even today) choose to use an AK or something similar, or would their officers tell them to knock that off?
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Oct 16, 2019 21:49
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Hyrax Attack! posted:I read that following the capture of Vicksburg, because of European imports the Union captured thousands of rifles that were superior to those in Grant’s army and he had his troops replace their weapons with better choices. That sounds like a logistical nightmare so I’m gonna say no to the Grant’s army thing.
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Oct 16, 2019 22:04
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LingcodKilla posted:That sounds like a logistical nightmare so I’m gonna say no to the Grant’s army thing. The book didn’t mention the specific type, but googling I think they were Pattern 1853 Enfield that the Union army would be able to keep supplied with ammo.
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Oct 16, 2019 22:08
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Were soldiers still making their own paper cartridges during the civil war? If so then wouldn't the only logistical issues be bullet molds and percussion primers?
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Oct 16, 2019 22:18
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Were there other examples from the Civil War where the Confederate equipment was more advanced or better technology than the Union’s? For about a day, the CSS Virginia. Then the USS Monitor showed up. Hyrax Attack! posted:Related question, could a US soldier in Vietnam (or even today) choose to use an AK or something similar, or would their officers tell them to knock that off? It depends. A big advantage - and drawback - of using an enemy's weapon is that it sounds like an enemy's weapon. If you're a special forces type sneaking around in enemy territory this helps, as it makes a bit harder to identify you as an enemy infiltrator. If you're a line grunt it's a bad idea as it might attract unwanted attention from friendlies, who might hear the weapon, think it was an enemy, and shoot at you.
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Oct 16, 2019 22:28
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Hyrax Attack! posted:The book didn’t mention the specific type, but googling I think they were Pattern 1853 Enfield that the Union army would be able to keep supplied with ammo. If it was an Enfield, it wasn't superior to the Springfield. The two were virtually identical, with the only real difference being that the Enfield had better but more fragile sights. This is one reason why both sides imported thousands of the things and the Enfield was only slightly less common than the Springfield in the Union army. Thus, it is highly reasonable that Grant assimilated large stocks of captured arms, as they would have been types already in use. In the few cases where Union and Confederate arms differed, Union arms were superior. The sole exception was the rare Whitworth rifle, which was an extremely accurate but ludicrously expensive weapon used by some Confederate sharpshooters.
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Oct 16, 2019 22:33
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:boat video game guy - i think you are having some confusion about heavy and light cruisers, which makes sense, because it's a bit confusing. you seem to be focusing on heavy cruisers. Hey, thanks for this post! And you're right, in a way -- really what's going on here is that I'm trying to present a collection of ships to the player that are reasonably easy to compare to each other. Because the player has so much freedom to refit their ships, I don't really have "light" and "heavy" cruisers, what I have are cruiser-sized hulls that have displacements that fit into a certain range. Nothing's stopping you from deciding that your Deutschland-class heavy cruiser with a maximum displacement of ~14000 tons should be stuffed to the gills with boilers and fitted with minimal armor, to enable it to achieve speeds well in excess of what the historical ship did. Though, as I type that, it occurs to me that the drive screws ought to have a "maximum applicable force" stat, because at some point if you apply enough horsepower to the transmission, it'll break. Anyway, the point remains: if you want to take a relatively large hull, under-spec its arms and armor, and overspec its engines, then you can get light cruiser performance in a heavy cruiser hull...which leaves open the question of why you'd use the light cruiser. As your anecdote reveals, historically the light cruiser had a fundamentally different role from the heavy cruiser, but in-game they're basically just collections of stats and a particular configuration of deck and underdeck space. Short of having missions that say "We need you to use a small ship for this one", there's not much incentive to use anything but the biggest hull you have access to. Basically, quote:If you are focusing on WWII-ish era, it makes more sense for you to start with Light Armored Cruisers, and then move in to Cruisers generally. This allows the player to use basically the same hull form to either pursue heavy or light gun armament, much like navies actually did at the time. Guess I should review my ship list again! Your comments on rate of fire are also noted. Though then, how much value did 8" guns have if 6" guns have such superior rate of fire? I guess the 8" shell has better armor penetration and a longer effective range?
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Oct 16, 2019 23:01
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TooMuchAbstraction posted:Nothing's stopping you from deciding that your Deutschland-class heavy cruiser with a maximum displacement of ~14000 tons should be stuffed to the gills with boilers and fitted with minimal armor, to enable it to achieve speeds well in excess of what the historical ship did.
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Oct 16, 2019 23:23
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FrangibleCover posted:Interesting point there, stuffing it to the gills with nothing but boilers won't actually make it that fast. You have to increase propulsive power hugely to get just one more knot, in the order of doubling horsepower to get from 30 to 31. The top speed of a ship is limited by its hull form as much as anything. Okay, fair point. Let me add another entry to my list of "things we are ignoring for the sake of letting the player feel powerful" real quick.  Because seriously, who wants to put up with the realities of water resistance? It's such a drag.
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Oct 16, 2019 23:45
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Related question, could a US soldier in Vietnam (or even today) choose to use an AK or something similar, or would their officers tell them to knock that off? It depends, for the average Soldier, no, though I have read a memoir of a tanker in Vietnam who kept an AK on the tank. Tanks offer more places to carry extra gear, but he also had his issued weapons as well. For a guy on the ground they would have used what they were issued. Special Forces, Delta, or the SEALs have a lot of latitude in weapons choices. For example, during Operation Gothic Serpent, aka "Black Hawk Down," SFC Shughart, a member of Delta Force, was armed with a 1911 and an M14 instead of an M9 and an M16. The Rangers who were there all had standard issue weapons, and the members of the 10th Mountain Division had less say than the Rangers in regards to personalizing their equipment.
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Oct 17, 2019 00:48
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TooMuchAbstraction posted:Okay, fair point. Let me add another entry to my list of "things we are ignoring for the sake of letting the player feel powerful" real quick. I see what you did there  There's also the question of turn radius of course, and sea keeping at high speed...
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Oct 17, 2019 01:28
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SimonCat posted:Special Forces, Delta, or the SEALs have a lot of latitude in weapons choices. For example, during Operation Gothic Serpent, aka "Black Hawk Down," SFC Shughart, a member of Delta Force, was armed with a 1911 and an M14 instead of an M9 and an M16. Shughart was serving as a sniper so he wouldn't have had an M16 in any case, and I think the M1911 was the standard sidearm of Delta Force at the time.
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Oct 17, 2019 02:01
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LatwPIAT posted:Shughart was serving as a sniper so he wouldn't have had an M16 in any case, and I think the M1911 was the standard sidearm of Delta Force at the time. SFC Gordon, also a sniper, was armed with a CAR-15. Point is though, the more elite units are allowed a lot more freedom in their gear and weapons compared to normal troops. SimonCat fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Oct 17, 2019 |
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Oct 17, 2019 02:16
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For that matter they actually had access to M14s that shot well, which is a non-trivial thing.
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Oct 17, 2019 02:45
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TooMuchAbstraction posted:Your comments on rate of fire are also noted. Though then, how much value did 8" guns have if 6" guns have such superior rate of fire? I guess the 8" shell has better armor penetration and a longer effective range? correct on both. the 8"/55 fired a AP shell weighing about 350 lbs and could penetrate 5" of armor plating at almost 20,000 yards. The 6"/53 fired a 105 lb projectile, and the 6"/47 fired a 130 lb projectile - so it hurts a lot more to get hit by an 8" shell. however, 8" guns used bagged propellant and separate ammunition, but 6" guns were small enough to use semifixed ammunition (where the propellant is in a brass case, but separate from the projectile) which led to the high rate of fire. On an equivalent ship, you can carry 15 6" guns for a total rate of fire of like 150 rounds per minute (Brooklyn), or 9 8" guns for a total rate of fire of 27 rounds per minute (New Orleans). You're not going to do poo poo to a battleship or battlecruiser with an 8" gun, and 6" guns are more than sufficient to kill any cruiser afloat. More shells fired = more chances to hit, plus the additional antiaircraft capability, hence the preference for 6" gunned cruisers. The advantage of 8" guns is that they are better for fire support because the HE shell is so much bigger.
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Oct 17, 2019 02:57
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That reminds me -- what dictates the effective range for these guns? They all have pretty similar muzzle velocities of around 760m/s (notable exception the 28cm gun on the Deutschland which was ~150m/s faster). I guess the larger shells won't slow down as much due to air resistance; is that the only thing that lets them shoot further?
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Oct 17, 2019 03:00
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:
Ehhhhhh.... IJN Hiei got sufficiently hosed up by 5"s, 6"s, and 8"s that she was crippled and sunk the next day.
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Oct 17, 2019 03:19
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TooMuchAbstraction posted:Okay, fair point. Let me add another entry to my list of "things we are ignoring for the sake of letting the player feel powerful" real quick. An important question: have you thought of any Paranatural references to sneak into this game-?
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Oct 17, 2019 03:34
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The Des Moines class and the mk16 8-inch gun was the correct answer to the 6 vs 8 quandary.
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Oct 17, 2019 04:40
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Tree Bucket posted:An important question: have you thought of any Paranatural references to sneak into this game-? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Experiment
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Oct 17, 2019 04:55
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No using the chronosphere to drop the enemy fleet on land
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Oct 17, 2019 05:48
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Tree Bucket posted:An important question: have you thought of any Paranatural references to sneak into this game-? flying dutchman secret boss fight
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Oct 17, 2019 06:10
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| # ? Jun 2, 2024 10:23 |
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Obviously (!?) UFOs aren't from outer space but there's more than a few former pilots who say they've clearly seen them. Surely there's a similar phenomenon with old mariners, right? There's a lot of mirages and poo poo you can see, plus unknown wildlife both dead and alive, etc.
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Oct 17, 2019 07:27
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