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what a mess
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Oct 17, 2019 20:11
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Mister Bates posted:Turkey and the US just agreed to a 120 hour cease fire conditional on the SDF withdrawing from Turkey's 'safe zone' and turning over all heavy weapons. President Deals!
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Oct 17, 2019 20:12
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https://twitter.com/ynms79797979/status/1184827342713176064
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Oct 17, 2019 20:32
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Smirking_Serpent posted:THIS IS SO loving STUPID yeah it's cool
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Oct 17, 2019 20:48
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Smirking_Serpent posted:THIS IS SO loving STUPID I wonder how much of history had people just like us, watching countries get into wars that tore them apart, who looked on powerless to do much of anything and going "what the gently caress, this is the dumbest fuckin' thing in the world" or if that's a modern phenomenon due to how information can spread. It was a lot harder to know just how much of a bad idea WWI was gonna be back then as a random observer in another country than it is for us now to watch this profoundly dumb and cruel travesty play out.
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Oct 17, 2019 20:52
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1184919982330785792
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Oct 17, 2019 20:55
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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1184922290246639616?s=20 looks like the SDF aren't confident they can hold Ras Al Ain
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Oct 17, 2019 21:02
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Grondoth posted:I wonder how much of history had people just like us, watching countries get into wars that tore them apart, who looked on powerless to do much of anything and going "what the gently caress, this is the dumbest fuckin' thing in the world" or if that's a modern phenomenon due to how information can spread. It was a lot harder to know just how much of a bad idea WWI was gonna be back then as a random observer in another country than it is for us now to watch this profoundly dumb and cruel travesty play out. these are some good high thoughts, gonna ponder them sometime soon
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Oct 17, 2019 21:07
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Grondoth posted:I wonder how much of history had people just like us, watching countries get into wars that tore them apart, who looked on powerless to do much of anything and going "what the gently caress, this is the dumbest fuckin' thing in the world" or if that's a modern phenomenon due to how information can spread. It was a lot harder to know just how much of a bad idea WWI was gonna be back then as a random observer in another country than it is for us now to watch this profoundly dumb and cruel travesty play out. Well, I guess that back when it literally took days to get whatever meager reports were available it was much easier for the ruling classes to hide their staggering incompetence.
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Oct 17, 2019 21:16
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ofc the flipside was that whenever there was a cockup too big to hide then the reaction was also much stronger
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Oct 17, 2019 21:21
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The Kwharezmian Shah decapitating a Mongol envoy was a pretty big gently caress up
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Oct 17, 2019 21:22
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p hard to cover up a hundred thousand pissed off Mongols ravaging your land, yeah
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Oct 17, 2019 21:28
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leaders have always been dumb but they didn’t have to tell the poors about what stupid poo poo they were doing
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Oct 17, 2019 21:34
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Grondoth posted:I wonder how much of history had people just like us, watching countries get into wars that tore them apart, who looked on powerless to do much of anything and going "what the gently caress, this is the dumbest fuckin' thing in the world" or if that's a modern phenomenon due to how information can spread. It was a lot harder to know just how much of a bad idea WWI was gonna be back then as a random observer in another country than it is for us now to watch this profoundly dumb and cruel travesty play out. George Orwell wrote 1984 in 1948, so humans have known that they are completely hosed since at least 1948.
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Oct 17, 2019 21:38
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some insane self-deprecation by that minister lol
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Oct 17, 2019 21:52
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Pryor on Fire posted:George Orwell wrote 1984 in 1948, so humans have known that they are completely hosed since at least 1948. well I mean two world wars probably made a lot of people aware of how dumb and gently caress everything is now we can even watch all the dumb and gently caress get live tweeted which is a huge improvement too!
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Oct 17, 2019 22:24
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so the net effect of this on the ground is that the SDF will effectively cede the areas Turkey has already captured to Turkey, along with the remainder of Ras al-Ain, which the Turks had not captured yet but were probably about to. in exchange they will receive, uh, nothing, near as I can tell. that the SDF agreed to this tells me that they are not confident they can hold the Turks back even with Russian and SAA support, and it's difficult to see this as anything other than a straight up defeat for them. like, Turkey doesn't get anything close to all the territory they wanted, but they still get quite a bit, with absolutely nothing preventing them from just taking more in a few days after they've had some time to lick their wounds. also the Syrian government were of course not included in these talks at all and are probably not going to accept Turkey essentially just unilaterally annexing a big chunk of their country, not that they are in any position to do anything about it.
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Oct 17, 2019 22:40
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Both the Korean War and the Gulf War were caused directly by the US not being clear that they would absolutely fight for their client state if they were attacked. Not entirely convinced it wasn't intentional in the Gulf War but Kim il Sing absolutely believed the US wouldn't fight in Korea and I believe that was a legit cockup on the part of US diplomats and that we would have really preferred not to fight in that war.
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Oct 17, 2019 22:43
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Mister Bates posted:so the net effect of this on the ground is that the SDF will effectively cede the areas Turkey has already captured to Turkey, along with the remainder of Ras al-Ain, which the Turks had not captured yet but were probably about to. in exchange they will receive, uh, nothing, near as I can tell.
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Oct 17, 2019 22:45
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Mister Bates posted:so the net effect of this on the ground is that the SDF will effectively cede the areas Turkey has already captured to Turkey, along with the remainder of Ras al-Ain, which the Turks had not captured yet but were probably about to. in exchange they will receive, uh, nothing, near as I can tell. If this is true, the part I don't get is why Turkey would agree to it. I get 100% why every Syrian faction wants time to reorganize defenses, move troops around, plan, etc., but Turkey has been 100% planning this for a while, what do they need time for?
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Oct 17, 2019 22:46
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Azathoth posted:If this is true, the part I don't get is why Turkey would agree to it. I get 100% why every Syrian faction wants time to reorganize defenses, move troops around, plan, etc., but Turkey has been 100% planning this for a while, what do they need time for? to get the US off their backs.
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Oct 17, 2019 22:52
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Oct 17, 2019 23:08
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Oct 17, 2019 23:29
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lol @ arnold's stunt double
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Oct 17, 2019 23:31
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Syrian government is at least saying they oppose the "deal" https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1184933888940036096?s=20
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Oct 17, 2019 23:37
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how much longer can the fiction that trump is putin's puppet withstand reality
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Oct 17, 2019 23:58
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I mean depending on how this plays out this has worked out extremely well for Putin.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:02
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CharlestheHammer posted:I mean depending on how this plays out this has worked out extremely well for Putin. yeah this is simultaneously gonna work out real well for russia but not because our big wet president had anything to do with it
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Oct 18, 2019 00:10
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What the SDF gets out of the deal is that they get to withdraw YPG/SDF fighters and PYD personnel from Ras al Ain instead of letting them all be destroyed. TFSA cut off the southern road to the city and there's no telling if the SAA could reopen it because there's already been fighting between them and the FSA around Tell Amr.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:14
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CharlestheHammer posted:I mean depending on how this plays out this has worked out extremely well for Putin.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:17
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Gratitude from the Kurds who have a historically good relationship with Russia, and solidifying the position of Syria in the ongoing civil war. Russia just proved that they're a trustworthy partner to their potential client states, and that they can make things happen diplomatically and not just militarily. The message is that you're better off working with Russia than the United States, who will betray you as soon as it's convenient.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:20
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it brought the Kurds and their oil back into Syria. they have lost territory so it’s not the best outcome but better than the old SQ.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:21
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doesn't it take some shine off of their prestige project that a piece of territory gets sliced off of syria though
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Oct 18, 2019 00:23
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only a bit, and only if it stays that way. i still think Turkey is primarily looking to forcibly resettle all their refugees on de jure syrian soil so if they can't hold what they take in syria, they can cut a peace deal back to the old border and still call it a win
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Oct 18, 2019 00:28
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yeah, most of the territory the Turks have taken is basically empty countryside and some villages that were already mostly abandoned from the war, only two major population centers (really only one, the SDF is voluntarily abandoning the second because they don't think they can hold it). it's still definitely a victory for Turkey but it's not at all a crippling loss for Syria or for the SDF. if they think they can capture and hold more territory they will likely try, but worst case scenario they'll probably be willing to accept just dumping all 3 million Syrian refugees they've got out in the patch of desert they've captured, declaring 'mission accomplished' and leaving. also with regards to the oil going back to Syria, it's worth noting that US/Coalition forces have still not left the part of the country where all the oil fields are and give no indication that they're in any hurry to do so, nor have Syrian government forces been able to cross the lines into that area.
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Oct 18, 2019 00:50
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When you think about it, where is the lie?
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Oct 18, 2019 00:51
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https://twitter.com/ZeinakhodrAljaz/status/1184972149808873472?s=20
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Oct 18, 2019 00:59
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Mister Bates posted:also with regards to the oil going back to Syria, it's worth noting that US/Coalition forces have still not left the part of the country where all the oil fields are and give no indication that they're in any hurry to do so, nor have Syrian government forces been able to cross the lines into that area. Once the situation with Turkey stabilizes, the huge hypocrisy that is US troops holding Deir should prove untenable even if the KRG keeps the Dhiban crossing open for resupply.
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Oct 18, 2019 01:01
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this one has been swinging and developing so fast, I wouldn't even attempt to read the tea leaves yet
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Oct 18, 2019 01:02
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 01:05 |
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Azathoth posted:Both the Korean War and the Gulf War were caused directly by the US not being clear that they would absolutely fight for their client state if they were attacked. Not entirely convinced it wasn't intentional in the Gulf War but Kim il Sing absolutely believed the US wouldn't fight in Korea and I believe that was a legit cockup on the part of US diplomats and that we would have really preferred not to fight in that war. honestly, i'd guess that the US themselves weren't confident they'd fight for their client states until poo poo started happening the US made a point of limiting South Korea's military power to keep them in check, and the US didn't really care about Kuwait specifically
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Oct 18, 2019 01:08
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