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Some good thoughts on passing The Deal as long as the Letwin amendment is also passed: https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233043491115015 https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233447993905153 https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234029265723392 https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234200133361666 https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234337454841856 
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Oct 18, 2019 20:02
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OwlFancier posted:Also I don't really buy the idea that getting the deal through solves boris's problems. Because it doesn't actually mean we brexit immediately, it means we're in a transitional arrangement with the end result still to be determined. their policy will be screaming "LOOK, LABOUR DID BREXIT" to help tories sweep elections
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Oct 18, 2019 20:05
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Doccykins posted:Some good thoughts on passing The Deal as long as the Letwin amendment is also passed: That's relevant yeah, cos, like, if they pass "the deal" with the letwin amendment, what they actually do is... not pass anything, tell boris to get an extension, and they'll look at it. Which means extension until january and parliament has to basically approve the deal step by step, or it fails. Which gives much more time to rip it to bits in parliament and in public. This, to clarify, is what they'd be voting for if the letwin amendment passes: quote:"That, in light of the new deal agreed with the European Union, which enables the United Kingdom to respect the result of the referendum on its membership of the European Union and to leave the European Union on 31 October with a deal, this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed." Which means boris is obligated to extend tomorrow until january and then pass all the legislation of the deal if he wants to do it. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Oct 18, 2019 |
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Oct 18, 2019 20:07
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Azza Bamboo posted:According to tomorrow's order paper they're voting on whether to approve a no deal. What you've described as Kyle and Wilson's amendment was what I had assumed was happening: both votes appearing on the order paper and then Bercow to clarify tomorrow that the second vote on the order paper is conditional on the failure of the first. it got shoved onto an addendum order paper I guess: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201920/cmagenda/Addendum%20to%20OP.pdf
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Oct 18, 2019 20:08
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So what's actually happening is amendment a gets pressed through, Boris makes a last ditch attempt on Monday and in all likelihood the Benn act ties his hands to run off to Brussels later in the week?
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Oct 18, 2019 20:23
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i had a dream last night that i was back in undergrad and i was taking a test and bojo was the adminstrator and also i was drunk and didn't know any of the answers. im american
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Oct 18, 2019 20:23
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New Briefing Book for the revised deal is out, giving MPs a whole 18 hours to read, digest and understand it before they vote on it  https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1185270078528512000
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Oct 18, 2019 20:25
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Azza Bamboo posted:So what's actually happening is amendment a gets pressed through, Boris makes a last ditch attempt on Monday and in all likelihood the Benn act ties his hands to run off to Brussels later in the week? doesn’t sound stupid enough imho
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Oct 18, 2019 20:25
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Azza Bamboo posted:So what's actually happening is amendment a gets pressed through, Boris makes a last ditch attempt on Monday and in all likelihood the Benn act ties his hands to run off to Brussels later in the week? He's obligated to seek an extension tomorrow if he can't get the unamended deal past, and he'd be in contempt of both court and parliament if he doesn't. I don't know that bercow would allow another go on monday.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:26
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oh poo poo the 19th is the day.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:27
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He's literally doing his homework on the day it's due in, yeah.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:29
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bump_fn posted:what’s the logic of giving the tories a win by voting for their deal for any labor mp 1. For MPs in Leave constituencies if this doesn't pass it's extension then GE at which some possibly lose their seats and being an MP owns, they want to keep doing it. 2. For lovely neolib MPs that were tempted to join the Lib Dems there is a huge incentive for them to vote for the deal. The Lib Dem leadership want brexit to happen but not to be seen responsible for it, a Lab MP that helps brexit through 'on principle' or 'because Corbyn is secret Leave ultra bully' is owed a favour by the Lib Dem leadership, and they've already shown they are prioritising defectors from other parties over long-term Lib Dem members for their competitive seats. 3. The Remain movement has genuinely been a bit crap and low-energy since the Benn Act passed and some MPs are legit rudderless, they respond to what's happening at the time and Remain have not been projecting well recently. I honestly think there could be parliamentary votes swung by if there's a bit of sunshine and some good signs on the march tomorrow.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:31
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Johnson is obliged to ask for an extension until January, but the EU isn't obliged to accept. They could grant an extension for say, a week, in order to force a second vote on Johnson's deal immediately.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:32
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OwlFancier posted:He's obligated to seek an extension tomorrow if he can't get the unamended deal past, and he'd be in contempt of both court and parliament if he doesn't. I don't know that bercow would allow another go on monday. Okay so basically: There's the bill to leave the EU (aka Bojo's garbage deal) and Letwin Amendement The worst thing that can happen is that the Amendment fails and the Bill passes. The best thing that can happen is the amendment passes and the bill passes (I think?). And the dumbest thing that can happen is everything fails.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:32
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If we get the extension then I'd hope Corbyn goes for a VONC on the basis that no-one actually wants this deal.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:33
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Azza Bamboo posted:So what's actually happening is amendment a gets pressed through, Boris makes a last ditch attempt on Monday and in all likelihood the Benn act ties his hands to run off to Brussels later in the week? 19 October is tomorrow so Johnson would need to decide whether to comply with Benn on the day, not next week it is perfect fodder for that People vs Parliament concept they keep bandying about so maybe he will fling all his toys out of the pram and dissolve the government! But who knows. Calvinball forever
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Oct 18, 2019 20:33
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Hoey is against the deal.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:42
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Filibuster parliament, let the clock tick over into the 20th, put Boris in Belmarsh. I can dream 
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Oct 18, 2019 20:42
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Chucat posted:Okay so basically: No if the amendment fails and the bill fails he still has to go get an extension. The worst outcome is the bill passes unamended, because then he gets to leave on his own terms barring some insane parliamentary nonsense next week. The letwin amendment does not pass the bill, what it does is say "parliament might agree to it if you put it infront of us piece by piece, like any other legislation." Which is something he might try if the bill fails anyway. Essentially as I understand it, the text of the benn act says boris needs to get a deal agreed with parliament and the EU, if parliament votes for the deal in principle tomorrow unamended, he's done that, and he doesn't need to get an extension. Critically the vote tomorrow is not legislation, I think, it's literally just "Do you like my deal Y/N (pick one)" so he can avoid doing the benn extension. So I guess maximum stupid timeline is that the bill passes tomorrow but he can't actually pass the deal itself, and we crash out with no deal on the 31st. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Oct 18, 2019 |
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Oct 18, 2019 20:44
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Julio Cruz posted:like I know this is the thread where "nothing matters" became a meme but dear god the blackpilling that's going on ITT today is on another loving level This is trash by the way. Stop loving saying "blackpill" like it's a thing. loving drop the bellend 8chan language already. It's pessimism, negativity, despondency, hopelessness, there's plenty loving words in the English language to describe this mood already.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:44
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Doctor_Fruitbat posted:If we get the extension then I'd hope Corbyn goes for a VONC on the basis that no-one actually wants this deal. If we get the extension then it's 100% VONC, the only reason Boris hasn't been slapped with a GE is because it would suspend Government and we would no-deal by default. The moment a GE can be called without it also causing a no-deal It's Happening.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:48
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The main hope from the amendment is that it allows extra time for the DUP, the Brexit party, Labour and the Remain alliance to really lay into how poo poo this deal is. Boris best chance of getting it through was before anyone had much chance to read or react to it. Once he starts getting properly quizzed on why he's allowing a border down the Irish sea it may still all fall apart.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:48
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For reference the text of the motion boris has put forward tomorrow is literally "for the purposes of the benn act, does parliament agree to the deal" Or rather it actually says "That, in light of the new deal agreed with the European Union, which enables the United Kingdom to respect the result of the referendum on its membership of the European Union and to leave the European Union on 31 October with a deal, and for the purposes of section 1(1)(a) of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 and section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, this House approves the negotiated withdrawal agreement titled Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and the framework for the future relationship titled Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom that the United Kingdom has concluded with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, as well as a Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the operation of the Democratic consent in Northern Ireland provision of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, copies of these three documents which were laid before this House on Saturday 19 October." But that's just legalese for the first sentence.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:49
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Yeah if the bill passes unamended then next week there'll be another vote that really is Boris deal vs leave with no deal and the ERG will vote against it then and we're in hellworld
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Oct 18, 2019 20:50
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Vitamin P posted:If we get the extension then it's 100% VONC, the only reason Boris hasn't been slapped with a GE is because it would suspend Government and we would no-deal by default. The moment a GE can be called without it also causing a no-deal It's Happening. I actually suspect they might take a little time to poo poo on the deal beforehand, because that probably lowers boris's chances going into an election as well.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:50
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OwlFancier posted:So I guess maximum stupid timeline is that the bill passes tomorrow but he can't actually pass the deal itself, and we crash out with no deal on the 31st. Or, I suppose, the bill passes tomorrow with the amendment to mandate an extension, which Boris then fails to request or the EU fails to grant, meaning No Deal Brexit happens even though a deal is in theory in place already.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:53
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Bear in mind that if there's a majority for Boris' deal, there may not be a majority for a VONC any more.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:55
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The letwin amendment I think is possibly the most likely outcome because it tries to square the circle for people saying "Well I want to leave just not with no deal" because it puts, in theory, boris's deal back on the table over the longer timeframe, while also getting the extension so it's not rushed through parliament in a week.
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Oct 18, 2019 20:57
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I was told that Boris is a clown, but it sounds like he’s got the advantage of being more shameless than than everyone else. Sounds like a lot of other MPs have to contort themselves to fit how conflicted Brits are as a whole about Brexit. What a mess.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:01
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The tories have always had the advantage of being the party of the reactionary assholes.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:01
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jabby posted:Bear in mind that if there's a majority for Boris' deal, there may not be a majority for a VONC any more. Not necessarily. Some Labour MPs are voting for it because an election is imminent and they're scared of being seen as Remain MPs in Leave-heavy areas. VONC'ing Bohnson isn't the same thing.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:02
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https://twitter.com/TSSAunion/status/1185277590350774272
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Oct 18, 2019 21:03
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https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1185231782729388032?s=21 Time to see how much influence Hammond has over his band of ex-Tory dissidents, I guess.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:27
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Brony Car posted:I was told that Boris is a clown, but it sounds like he’s got the advantage of being more shameless than than everyone else. Sounds like a lot of other MPs have to contort themselves to fit how conflicted Brits are as a whole about Brexit. What a mess. The old truism that a dictator negotiates better than a democrat has 100% held true this whole episode, when Johnson did his YOLO negotiation style and suggested he legit didn't give a poo poo about having no democratic mandate he has the power gently caress you, suddenly the deal that the EU said for almost a year was inviolate and couldn't be changed did get changed. Just like the original deal was pro-EU because T-May had to answer to a democracy and the EU didn't so the EU was stronger. You're absolutely right that Boris being shameless has benefitted him. The left-wing critique of the EU hinges entirely on the question that where exactly is the point that the EU is even able to feel shame or democratic response? Where is the culpability and is there a specific interruption point in its processes? Hint it's nowhere, the EU is poo poo. Vitamin P fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Oct 18, 2019 |
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Oct 18, 2019 21:29
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So, if the deal fails tomorrow, Boris sends the letter, the EU in all likelihood grant the extension after a bit of grandstanding from Macron again, we get a general election. OR there are like fifty gazillion permutations to do with which amendments are selected, etc etc etc and holy poo poo I'm really loving confused.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:32
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Darth Walrus posted:https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1185231782729388032?s=21 Did they have to take a picture of him trying to dislodge part of a bacon sandwich from his back teeth?
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Oct 18, 2019 21:34
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Vitamin P posted:The old truism that a dictator negotiates better than a democrat has 100% held true this whole episode, when Johnson did his YOLO negotiation style and suggested he legit didn't give a poo poo about having no democratic mandate he has the power gently caress you, suddenly the deal that the EU said for almost a year was inviolate and couldn't be changed did get changed. Just like the original deal was pro-EU because T-May had to answer to a democracy and the EU didn't so the EU was stronger. Psst, the EU basically didn't give an inch of ground in the new deal. It's just the May deal except instead of the entire UK being in the backstop (to avoid DUP opposing the deal) Northern Ireland is in the backstop instead, which for the EU doesn't really matter because either way Ireland isn't hosed. Also the political declaration was fine-tuned so that the future relationship got downgraded to a free trade agreement. What Boris's advantage is, if any, is domestic, in that he is better at selling this poo poo to the ERG and the other ultra-Brexiteers, because they see him as one of them. The ERG would not in a million years have voted for this deal in March; in fact, JRM orchestrated a bill that specifically forbade a deal like this when it comes to Northern Ireland being split from the UK customs and tax regime!
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Oct 18, 2019 21:38
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Bardeh posted:So, if the deal fails tomorrow, Boris sends the letter, the EU in all likelihood grant the extension after a bit of grandstanding from Macron again, we get a general election. Your most likely outcomes are either bill passes with letwin amendment, or it fails outright. These are, broadly, identical outcomes. They both mean boris has to do the extension until january, with the letwin amendment meaning he might get an attempt to run the bill through parliament in detail before a VONC, maybe. If the bill passes unamended, that's bad, because it means boris basically has leave from parliament to exit the EU on the 31st, and we either have to pass his deal next week or something truly bizzare has to happen.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:38
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Vitamin P posted:The old truism that a dictator negotiates better than a democrat has 100% held true this whole episode, when Johnson did his YOLO negotiation style and suggested he legit didn't give a poo poo about having no democratic mandate he has the power gently caress you, suddenly the deal that the EU said for almost a year was inviolate and couldn't be changed did get changed. Just like the original deal was pro-EU because T-May had to answer to a democracy and the EU didn't so the EU was stronger. quote:You're absolutely right that Boris being shameless has benefitted him. The left-wing critique of the EU hinges entirely on the question that where exactly is the point that the EU is even able to feel shame or democratic response? This also is why they cannot talk about food or coffee without sounding like stock working class characters from a 1960s radio play who don't know what a loving kiwi fruit is, despite that being insecure classist drivel.
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Oct 18, 2019 21:41
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OwlFancier posted:Did they have to take a picture of him trying to dislodge part of a bacon sandwich from his back teeth? Still ate it better than Red Ed :sunsay:
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Oct 18, 2019 21:52
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