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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Leather, guzzoline





haveblue fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Oct 24, 2019

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There Bias Two
Jan 13, 2009
I'm not a good person

showbiz_liz posted:

In college a friend and I took a class with an anthropology professor who specialized in systems theory. The class was essentially about catastrophes, and we spent a lot of time talking about climate change (which he had been studying and ringing the alarm bells about for 40 years).

My friend and I left that class thinking there was definitely at least a 5% that the world as we knew it would collapse in our lifetimes. She wound up getting Lasik because you can't get new glasses in The Wasteland, and I learned how to keep bees partly so I'd have a useful backup profession post-collapse. Just in case.

Did you guys cover the Bronze Age Collapse? poo poo can go belly up really, really fast.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

mdemone posted:

Why do you say Firtash is failing to avoid being extradited?

Well, the previous plan of BSing the Austrian judge with laughable nonsense about Ukrainian politics didn't hold up on appeal, but the new strategy of paying off Rudy may indeed work.

P.S. the preferred form of address for him isn't "Ukrainian oligarch", it's"the representative of Russian mafia in Ukraine".

showbiz_liz
Jun 2, 2008

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Condoms and tampons.

Maybe to sell in the immediate aftermath, but cervical caps and menstrual cups would be much more useful long-term.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



showbiz_liz posted:

In college a friend and I took a class with an anthropology professor who specialized in systems theory. The class was essentially about catastrophes, and we spent a lot of time talking about climate change (which he had been studying and ringing the alarm bells about for 40 years).

My friend and I left that class thinking there was definitely at least a 5% that the world as we knew it would collapse in our lifetimes. She wound up getting Lasik because you can't get new glasses in The Wasteland, and I learned how to keep bees partly so I'd have a useful backup profession post-collapse. Just in case.

Yeah, what this person is talking about is systems collapse.

quote:

General systems collapse theory, pioneered by Joseph Tainter, hypothesises how social declines in response to complexity may lead to a collapse resulting in simpler forms of society. ... In complex societies that were increasingly fragile and less resilient, the combination of factors may have contributed to the collapse.

The basic gist is that our society is complex and if one thing breaks down and can't be fixed, or can't be fixed fast enough, it triggers other collapses, which trigger more and more. The original premise behind Mad Max was that a gas crisis triggered a societal collapse in Australia. Later it became a lot more post-apocalyptic, but the original movie was just about that collapse from lack of gas.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
I hope my personal library gives whatever wanderer a cool several hundred worth of science/etc points for their stats.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1187400498879574019

OJ MIST 2 THE DICK
Sep 11, 2008

Anytime I need to see your face I just close my eyes
And I am taken to a place
Where your crystal minds and magenta feelings
Take up shelter in the base of my spine
Sweet like a chica cherry cola

-Cheap Trick

Nap Ghost

someone's arranging a cell at leavenworth

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1187422170525380613
https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1187382420171034624
https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1187366334675456000
https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1187367832310501377
https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1187373135735209987
https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1187380535259205634
https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1187381287507677186

Space Gopher
Jul 31, 2006

BLITHERING IDIOT AND HARDCORE DURIAN APOLOGIST. LET ME TELL YOU WHY THIS SHIT DON'T STINK EVEN THOUGH WE ALL KNOW IT DOES BECAUSE I'M SUPER CULTURED.

axeil posted:

The FDIC is also financed by the banks themselves paying premiums as an ongoing requirement of being allowed to do business and have an absolutely absurd amount of cash on hand that they're required to have by law. They're also very good at minimizing their losses during crises.

If they were to go down they'd have to exhaust all that capital plus Treasury/Congress would have to be in a position where they don't give them emergency extra funding.

About the only thing that could bring down the FDIC imo is a nuclear war and even then I wouldn't say it's guaranteed.

Beyond making sure you have an emergency fund and aren't living above your means there is literally nothing you can do to protect yourself from a recession so do not worry about it. Accounts are insured for up to $250,000 which is ludicrously high so that no one starts hoarding money under their mattress.

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) provides a similar service for credit unions.

Your money is fine, stop panicking everyone.

Also, if FDIC/NCUA go completely bust... the fed can and almost certainly would print money to cover the difference.

That could cause a big inflation hit, of course, but you wouldn't be left destitute. If you chose to bury a strap of hundreds to "be safe against collapse," on the other hand, those would get hit just as badly.

friendbot2000
May 1, 2011

https://twitter.com/pwcdanica/status/1187409572262305793

VAGOP keeps crashing the S.S. Shitbird against the Cliffs of Danica, I am sure you will get a win sometime.....annnny day now...

thin blue whine
Feb 21, 2004
PLEASE SEE POLICY


Soiled Meat

hahaha this is an insanely good troll

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost

Dapper_Swindler posted:

i do love that russian state TV looks like some weird dystopian poo poo from an 80s movie.

For some reason I want to say Running Man but it’s not quite there

Mahoning
Feb 3, 2007
https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1187429702929133570

Zapf Dingbat
Jan 9, 2001


Why are so many republicans human toes. Jesus, look at Gaetz.

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse

ELO Musk posted:

I mean, if the workweek were shortened, you don't think it would be better? 3 day weekends every week is a lot more life to live and I would love the hell out of it.

My current job we get three day weekends. Course we work ten hour days. But I can tell you every weekend is like a mini vacation. The attitude of our shift vastly improved too. It's like people had more time to enjoy or something

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Prester Jane posted:

Hey remember not too long ago when this thread was shiting on anyone who was trying to warn that the next economic collapse was going to be massive because none of those 2008 era problems had actually been solved?

The next economic crisis is going to be 2x-3x the size of the 2008 crisis- and on the other end of it either there's a fascist America or a progressive America waiting for us all.

There really won't be any middle ground on this one.

FuturePastNow posted:

Sure, bring on the Second Great Depression. Why not.

Holy poo poo there is literally nothing in that article about insolvency of the banks or the financial system.

It's talking about the relative competitive position of the investment banking sector versus newer tech heavy financial startups, and how the banks lack of innovation is leaving them in a bad competitive position if things go lean because of a downturn. Investment banks being "innovative" with ways to make profit was literally what gave us the 2008 crisis, if anything this article is consistent with the financial sector being far more stable than in 2008.

This article is about how some rich people aren't making as much money from nothing as other rich people are.

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything

Zapf Dingbat posted:

Why are so many republicans human toes. Jesus, look at Gaetz.

It's because they're always in contact with the boot.

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse

Well, guess I'm gonna go out and get a job with NASA as an engineer. Sure I'm not qualified, but hey, if this fucker can do it...

Rosalind
Apr 30, 2013

When we hit our lowest point, we are open to the greatest change.


Tweet of the week imho

Bugsy
Jul 15, 2004

I'm thumpin'. That's
why they call me
'Thumper'.


Slippery Tilde
:wtf:

https://twitter.com/OliviaMesser/status/1187391860165283842

https://twitter.com/tysonbrody/status/1187089955056689156

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1187107305839570944

No more not yelling.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1187408464986943488

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe

SocketWrench posted:

Well, guess I'm gonna go out and get a job with NASA as an engineer. Sure I'm not qualified, but hey, if this fucker can do it...

i went to school with a guy who didn't believe we landed on the moon but who then later worked for the x-33 program

stuff like that Happens

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Jarmak posted:

Holy poo poo there is literally nothing in that article about insolvency of the banks or the financial system.

It's talking about the relative competitive position of the investment banking sector versus newer tech heavy financial startups, and how the banks lack of innovation is leaving them in a bad competitive position if things go lean because of a downturn. Investment banks being "innovative" with ways to make profit was literally what gave us the 2008 crisis, if anything this article is consistent with the financial sector being far more stable than in 2008.

This article is about how some rich people aren't making as much money from nothing as other rich people are.

You do not appear to be thinking on the level of a complex system or the problems caused when that system is intentionally destabilized by bad-faith actors so that they can profit (as happened in 2008). If the majority of banks globally are not financially viable/vulnerable to a simple economic downturn then the entire banking system is at risk.

If non-banks are starting to choke out traditional banks that also represents a severe systemic risk- as non-banks are held to even lower standards than actual banks.

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003
No amount of prepping will actually prepare you for total societal collapse, so it's best to just not think about it lmao

VH4Ever
Oct 1, 2005

by sebmojo

Ice Phisherman posted:

Yeah, what this person is talking about is systems collapse.


The basic gist is that our society is complex and if one thing breaks down and can't be fixed, or can't be fixed fast enough, it triggers other collapses, which trigger more and more. The original premise behind Mad Max was that a gas crisis triggered a societal collapse in Australia. Later it became a lot more post-apocalyptic, but the original movie was just about that collapse from lack of gas.

He's a comedian, but since his forte in his later career was social commentary, I think a great demonstration of this that's accessible is the last half of George Carlin's bit "Extreme Human Behavior" from the special "Life Is Worth Losing." The beginning of it is quoted here to give you an idea. You want a single point of failure?

quote:

And this civilization of ours that we’re so proud of, this civilization with its so-called civilized behavior, you ever stop and realize how fragile all this is? How fragile the whole structure, how easily it can all just break right down, just break right down? It wouldn’t take much. It’ll probably happen in less than two years. It wouldn’t take much to throw us right back into barbaric times. All you’d have to do would be eliminate electricity. That’s all. But completely. Eliminate electricity. So, no electricity, no lights. You’re back to candles and lanterns. Campfires and bonfires. Batteries couldn’t be recharged. Generators couldn’t be refueled because fuel is pumped electrically. So is water, by the way. So no lights, no fuel, no water, no computers.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Prester Jane posted:

You do not appear to be thinking on the level of a complex system or the problems caused when that system is intentionally destabilized by bad-faith actors so that they can profit (as happened in 2008). If the majority of banks globally are not financially viable/vulnerable to a simple economic downturn then the entire banking system is at risk.

If non-banks are starting to choke out traditional banks that also represents a severe systemic risk- as non-banks are held to even lower standards than actual banks.

You don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about, this has nothing to do with the viability of their investments or their solvency; that's not how any of this works.

You're effectively reading an article describing how casual dining is seeing declining profits because of competition from fast casual and concluding we're all going to starve to death in the famine.

edit: if there's any inference about the general stability of the financial sector from this article it's literally the exact opposite of what you're trying to say it is.

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
People keep posting George Carlin in this thread and I keep thinking Dan Carlin and it's really messing me up.

twice burned ice
Dec 29, 2008

My stove defies the laws of physics!

friendbot2000 posted:

https://twitter.com/pwcdanica/status/1187409572262305793

VAGOP keeps crashing the S.S. Shitbird against the Cliffs of Danica, I am sure you will get a win sometime.....annnny day now...

Jesus loving christ that tweet is so lovely

For anyone that didn't click through itvs basically "Danica called herself a mom. Is there a new definition for that word now too?"

Griffen
Aug 7, 2008

oxsnard posted:

No amount of prepping will actually prepare you for total societal collapse, so it's best to just not think about it lmao

That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand.

oxsnard
Oct 8, 2003

Griffen posted:

That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand.

Nah, not the same. We know the basic cause for climate change so we can do something about it, and that's where effort should be spent. Total societal collapse could happen suddenly and for a jillion possible reasons. If things fall apart those cases of water and iodine pills and bullets just delay the inevitable

twice burned ice
Dec 29, 2008

My stove defies the laws of physics!

Griffen posted:

That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand.

So, uhh, how many cans of soup go you have in your basement? God you lot are weird

Prester Jane
Nov 4, 2008

by Hand Knit

Jarmak posted:


You're effectively reading an article describing how casual dining is seeing declining profits because of competition from fast casual and concluding we're all going to starve to death in the famine.

Ypur metaphor is missing a couple details: the casual dining corporations own all the farms and the fast casual dining corporations own their debt.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

oxsnard posted:

Nah, not the same. We know the basic cause for climate change so we can do something about it, and that's where effort should be spent. Total societal collapse could happen suddenly and for a jillion possible reasons. If things fall apart those cases of water and iodine pills and bullets just delay the inevitable

If things fall apart to that point though, a few more months/days/weeks can be precious.

Numlock
May 19, 2007

The simplest seppo on the forums
Stockpiling goods is a terrible strategy for preparing for long term crisis.

Skills/knowledge and connections (to other people) is the only valid long term plan.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

Griffen posted:

That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand.

There is a vast difference between stockpiling supplies for a brief disruption and attempting to forestall the end of days by collecting water bottles.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Griffen posted:

That's a bit like saying attempting to mitigate climate change won't completely eliminate climate change impacts, so you shouldn't try. Actions taken to prepare oneself for an emergency (say like getting basic emergency gear for a hurricane) does not eliminate the impacts of the emergency (having water bottles and batteries does not stop a hurricane), but it does lessen some of the damage and increase the chance for successfully surviving it (you are less likely to die of dehydration or dysentery). While no one can fully prepare for total societal collapse, people can take steps to lessen the impacts of disruptions of services and other outcomes of a more uncertain and unstable world. If a 1% better chance of surviving makes someone feel better, who are you to criticize them? No one says you have to do anything, but pardon some of us if we prefer not to stick our head in the sand.

Eh... we're not really comparing apples to apples here though. Being prepared to sustain yourself through a couple days to a week of disruption of regular services is multiple orders of magnitude more likely and more effective than preparing for a total collapse of society.

I get the point you're making and why you're connecting those dots but you're kinda responding to a person saying it's dumb to have a full fledged surgical trauma unit in your basement by saying "no, actually a first aid kit is a very prudent thing to have on hand". I mean you're not wrong, but that's not really whats being referenced.

Jarmak fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Oct 24, 2019

twice burned ice
Dec 29, 2008

My stove defies the laws of physics!
If society collapses I'm offing myself and everyone I care about. Y'all can have fun doing your live reenactment of The Road.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse

VH4Ever posted:

He's a comedian, but since his forte in his later career was social commentary, I think a great demonstration of this that's accessible is the last half of George Carlin's bit "Extreme Human Behavior" from the special "Life Is Worth Losing." The beginning of it is quoted here to give you an idea. You want a single point of failure?

My town goes through this every year or so. We'll get a big storm through and lose power for a week. When I worked at the grocery store, when this would happen, people would flock in (the place had generators to keep it open) and buy just the dumbest poo poo. Frozen foods, perishables that need refrigeration, etc. There'd always be a line by the gas stations with people bitching about how they couldn't get gas.

One of my sad forms of entertainment used to be laughing at the people lined up in the McDonald's drive thru on Thanksgiving waiting for service.

1glitch0
Sep 4, 2018

I DON'T GIVE A CRAP WHAT SHE BELIEVES THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS CHANGED MY LIFE #HUFFLEPUFF
Tammy Duckworth on CNN: "America has never been on the side of ethnic cleansing."

This is why Trump works. Because the "good guys" have no actual argument.

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Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016



Mild "prepping" like some emergency supplies for a hurricane is vastly different than societal collapse prepping which is a weird hobby-cult that takes over your entire life until you're burying a school bus in your back yard and filling it to the brim with diapers and the brand of baked beans you found on reddit that has the longest shelf life.

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