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Rarity posted:People would save themselves so much stress in this thread if they waited to get mad at things that might happen until they actually happen Rarity in being right again shocker
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Oct 28, 2019 15:55
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Doccykins posted:the polling was way worse in 2017 and they went for it then and cleared out May's majority, once purdah and broadcasting regulations come into place there's nothing to say a similar swing can't be achieved in the same time between election called and polling day Owen Jones had a column recently where he succinctly summarized this argument: quote:For those who believe this is a suicide mission, consider this. Dire as Labour’s polling currently is, the Tories were much further ahead in 2017 than they are now. May was far more popular than Johnson: indeed, her approval ratings exceeded those of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair at their zenith. In an election, Labour’s commitment to let the people decide will have the opportunity to cut through – as it becomes clear that this is the only opportunity that remainers have to realise their hopes. He is a noted exponent of this reading so let's call it the Owen Jones thesis. The problem is an empirical one - to what extent does one credit that for outcomes, or instead see some role in three-line whipping for A50 and still being sufficiently ambiguously Remain to win Battersea, in being harsher on immigration than even Ed Miliband's Controls on Immigration mugs/miscellaneous masonry, a rigorously restrained costing of the electoral manifesto, helpfully unforced errors on the part of dementia/bedroom taxes, LDEM malaise, ScotLab malaise, etc.? These are taken seriously in the leader's office, even if the true believers hold to the purdah "if only the public know Oh Jeremy's beneficent nature" thesis And then the other problem - Corbyn's and Labour's numbers are again about where they were in 2017 pre-surge, which didn't stick, so... and if they surge back to the same level, there's a good chance Labour still remains in the opposition benches. The party would need to do even better - in the face of LDEM revival, BXP irrelevance, continued absence of the Corbyn bump for ScotLab. And Labour would be going to to the polls without 2017's "freedom of movement will end" and yet with 2019's "the party shall only decide how to campaign in such a referendum – through a one-day special conference, following the election of a Labour Government". That's one hell of a triangulation target for a Brexit election. Those who were braying endlessly that voters are tired of Brexit and just want to vote in Labour's domestic agenda are apparently filled with doubt... Abbott has not made this line of argument in months. Immigration has slid down priority lists, but it is replaced by crime, not a notable Labour area of strength. Johnson's reversal of austerity cuts has allowed plentiful attacks of hypocrisy and bald electioneering, but has made making hay of Tory cuts to services much harder. Whilst this is going on, the membership are getting antsy - Rayner's declaration of war on Ofsted was overshadowed by Conference moving to abolish private schools, for instance. The relative freedom that let McDonnell to cook up an unexpectedly restrained manifesto in 2017 is much diminished. Conference 2016 was still full of slightly stunned Blair/Brownites, but since then there have been three successive years of gradually raising the expectations of new members (those members whose enthusiasm on the doorstep are still crucial for the turnout surges required for LAB...). It's going to be tough and I wouldn't say any decision here would be an easy one.
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Oct 28, 2019 15:55
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Pesmerga posted:Maybe you’ll take it from a massive cheerleader then. Why would I be more inclined to trust a sycophant who is only going off the same source as you are?
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Oct 28, 2019 15:57
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Finding other people who share your silly reaction does not lend it validity. The EU has not formally even offered an extension much less has one actually gone through, "election when no deal is off the table" is the consistent thing that labour and, until today, the entire loving opposition has been saying. That the liberals and the SNP cannot (or rather more likely, do not give a poo poo about) presenting a united front against the tories is their idiot fault.
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Oct 28, 2019 15:57
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The EU ahead announced it’s been concluded in EU Council and the extension is until January 31st, which is what Labour said was necessary, and now they’ve moved the goalposts again to ‘well not until Johnson gives assurances he will not pursue no deal’, which he’s not going to give. Edit: according to the Financial Times it’s confirmed and according to some members of the shadow cabinet They are apparently hoping to avoid this completely and have an election maybe in Spring 2020.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:00
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Tesseraction posted:I've rescued many cats stuck like this the solution is to cut down the tower and let him land on his feet. obviously you have to implode the chimney from around him https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzOmUwYO2T4
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Oct 28, 2019 16:00
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Pesmerga posted:The EU ahead announced it’s been concluded in EU Council and the extension is until January 31st, which is what Labour said was necessary, and now they’ve moved the goalposts again to ‘well not until Johnson gives assurances he will not pursue no deal’, which he’s not going to give. Is it not better to have full confirmation of a thing from a shitheel government that lies all the time to everyone about everything, rather than rushing it through because "I unno".
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Oct 28, 2019 16:02
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I'm not sure the EU twitter is quite the appropriate standard for legally binding international negotiations.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:02
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Pesmerga posted:Maybe you’ll take it from a massive cheerleader then. You're funny when you go into a full fubpee meltdown
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Oct 28, 2019 16:02
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TheRat posted:You're funny when you go into a full fubpee meltdown It’s funny how anything said in this thread that goes against the consensus is suddenly FBPE, when this is about Labour getting dragged into an election it claimed it wanted and has been ready for since 2017 in a way that every other party can start all campaigning with ‘and Labour didn’t even want this election anyway’.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:05
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Pesmerga posted:
I'm not worried. And lines like this https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188822382829592576 make me even less worried. Please don't throw me in that briar patch Mr Fox!
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Oct 28, 2019 16:06
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OwlFancier posted:I'm not sure the EU twitter is quite the appropriate standard for legally binding international negotiations. they can hardly take it back now. even if it's on twitter, communicating your intentions like that gives the EU zero room to rescind or modify their offer without seriously damaging the negotiations and worst of all, making it seem like the EU's in shambles and Johnson's in control.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:06
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I think that shot of "this thread piles on any "wrong" opinion" gives me a line on the UKMT meltdown bingo card.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:06
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Pesmerga posted:It’s funny how anything said in this thread that goes against the consensus is suddenly FBPE, when this is about Labour getting dragged into an election it claimed it wanted and has been ready for since 2017 in a way that every other party can start all campaigning with ‘and Labour didn’t even want this election anyway’. That’s clearly not what this is though?
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Oct 28, 2019 16:06
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Pesmerga posted:It’s funny how anything said in this thread that goes against the consensus is suddenly FBPE Not everything, I don't see anyone calling ronya fubpee. You've always been peak FBPE though.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:07
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OwlFancier posted:I'm not sure the EU twitter is quite the appropriate standard for legally binding international negotiations. 
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Oct 28, 2019 16:08
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One line whip to abstain on a crucial strategic point is literally the worst loving decision tbf. Support it for damage limitation, or oppose it to stick by your guns, and whichever way you go actually give a gently caress with more than one lineCGI Stardust posted:welcome to War Christmas, who remembers this? 
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Oct 28, 2019 16:08
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oscarthewilde posted:they can hardly take it back now. even if it's on twitter, communicating your intentions like that gives the EU zero room to rescind or modify their offer without seriously damaging the negotiations and worst of all, making it seem like the EU's in shambles and Johnson's in control. Yes, but the consistent theme with the opposition's handling of the government is that they do not accept anything until it's physically down in law, or ideally, until it's already happened. Which is entirely the appropriate line to take with the government at this point. Plus, there is, again, the desire to make johnson miss his deadline.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:09
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This thread has political correctness gone mad, you know, you can't even say Jeremy Corbyn is transgender anymore without some brexiteer remainiac calling you a semite.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:11
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Nenonen posted:obviously you have to implode the chimney from around him Off-screen, a health and safety guy is in urgent need of a change of clothes
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Oct 28, 2019 16:14
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Sanitary Naptime posted:Rarity in being right again shocker
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Oct 28, 2019 16:18
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D. Ebdrup posted:Rarity is too powerful. I HAVE NOT EVEN ASCENDED TO MY FINAL LEVEL 
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Oct 28, 2019 16:22
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OwlFancier posted:Yes, but the consistent theme with the opposition's handling of the government is that they do not accept anything until it's physically down in law, or ideally, until it's already happened. Which is entirely the appropriate line to take with the government at this point. I think the Benn act is pretty secure at this point - if Bojo doesn't accept the extension, he'll be in court before he knows it.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:26
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Grey Hunter posted:I think the Benn act is pretty secure at this point - if Bojo doesn't accept the extension, he'll be in court before he knows it. Could the court feasibly rule that the Benn act meant the extension was legally accepted, regardless of whether JoBo himself physically did it? If so I don't see where the risk is.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:28
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quote:Guardian 
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Oct 28, 2019 16:29
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Tesseraction posted:This thread has political correctness gone mad, you know, you can't even say Jeremy Corbyn is transgender anymore without some brexiteer remainiac calling you a semite. Bingo! I've got a full row here!
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Oct 28, 2019 16:30
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Grey Hunter posted:I think the Benn act is pretty secure at this point - if Bojo doesn't accept the extension, he'll be in court before he knows it. Sure, but I think the point of the way they're portraying it is they want it to actually be done with before they vote for an election. Because again, they also want to delay as much as they realistically can.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:30
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Lmao. The washing machine salesman detail is so perfectly Carry On, that I can't
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Oct 28, 2019 16:31
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Rarity posted:People would save themselves so much stress in this thread if they waited to get mad at things that might happen until they actually happen Nothing has happened for 3 years though, we've got to talk about something. Also Lol at Labour not wanting an election because of the polling, yes need to choose the right time for an election when the Tories are in absolute disarry is not quite right. Then again Labour can't even manage to have their cabinet present a consistent front on Brexit.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:32
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The tories aren't really in that much disarray though, certainly not with their voters, they're quite united behind boris.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:35
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Aramoro posted:Nothing has happened for 3 years though, we've got to talk about something.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:36
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Aphex- posted:Bingo! I've got a full row here! I don't think you can call bingo on a sarcastic or joke post, but I haven't read the full UKMT Bingo rulebook.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:36
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Pesmerga posted:This looks really loving bad. maybe take a break from twitter for a bit cuz having a meltdown over things that haven't happened yet severely damages your health.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:36
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lmao https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1188835556660338689
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Oct 28, 2019 16:37
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njsykora posted:I don't think you can call bingo on a sarcastic or joke post, but I haven't read the full UKMT Bingo rulebook. I do what I want 
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Oct 28, 2019 16:38
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While the damage this disarray might be minor and the poor messaging only until the 31st it's still very bad to discourage your activists like this for any amount of time so close to an election when the campaigning manifesto is also likely to ditch a lot of the conference stuff that they actually want to happen as well. Corbynism really lost a lot of its shine amongst the harder soc dem left over the last year, let alone the radical left so they need to appear capable and confident in their positions and ideology which this absolutely isn't.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:38
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Aphex- posted:I do what I want dog pile attempt failed because the woofers all got distracted by a squirrel
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Oct 28, 2019 16:40
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this just feels petty https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1188842413420433415
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Oct 28, 2019 16:45
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Josef bugman posted:Is it not better to have full confirmation of a thing from a shitheel government that lies all the time to everyone about everything, rather than rushing it through because "I unno". you’re in danger of holding to an impossible standard there. Even if Johnson went back on everything he’s said for 3 years and revoked article 50 today, there’s nothing to stop whichever tort immediately replaced him as PM invoking again. “No-deal Brexit is off the table” can always be found to have a hole. See people last week fretting that we could the the end of the two year transition in the withdrawal agreement without a free trade deal have been ratified.
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Oct 28, 2019 16:47
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December 10 1/2th?
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